Yeliz Akmaca 
The selling pressure in the altcoin market has persisted for quite some time. According to CryptoQuant data, the total altcoin sell volume exceeds buy volume by $36 billion. This clearly indicates a decline in investor confidence in the sector.
At the same time, global geopolitical tensions have been increasing Bitcoin’s dominance while causing capital outflows from altcoins. Moreover, the presence of more than 17 million altcoins in the market leads to excessive capital dispersion, hindering overall growth. Here are the top three reasons why the altcoin season is being delayed.
Increased Altcoin Selling Pressure and Lack of Confidence
CryptoQuant’s “1-Year Cumulative Bid/Ask Volume Delta” shows a continued net sell pressure of $36 billion in altcoins. This negative delta reflects a risk-off sentiment, with investors increasingly offloading their altcoin holdings. Investors seeking safer options have lost interest in altcoins in the short term. For a recovery, the buy volume must surpass the sell volume — a condition that has not yet been met. Analysts emphasize that this metric must turn positive for an altcoin season to begin.
Geopolitical Instability and Bitcoin Dominance
Recent global conflicts, such as the Israel-Iran clash, have negatively impacted the altcoin market. In such crises, investors turn to Bitcoin as a safe haven. While Bitcoin shows price volatility, altcoins suffer deeper losses. As a result, Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) has surpassed 64% and continues its upward trend with six consecutive green weekly candles. Analysts believe that geopolitical risks could persist for weeks or even months, keeping risk-averse sentiment high toward altcoins. This makes a near-term altcoin season unlikely.
Record Increase in Altcoin Numbers and Market Dilution
According to CoinMarketCap, the number of altcoin projects exceeded 17.34 million as of June 2025 — a staggering 850x increase compared to the end of 2021. However, this surge has caused extreme market fragmentation. Capital is spread too thin across countless small tokens, limiting overall market growth. The total altcoin market cap stands at $1.13 trillion, still 30% below its 2021 peak. As a result, most small projects struggle to succeed. Nonetheless, major projects like Ethereum, Solana, and XRP continue to attract investor attention. Even if an altcoin season begins, only strong, select projects are likely to benefit.
Bitcoin Struggles to Surpass the $112K Threshold – Here’s Why
Due to high sell pressure, growing Bitcoin dominance fueled by geopolitical uncertainty, and excessive capital dilution across the altcoin space, it may take longer for altcoins to recover. Until market conditions and investor sentiment improve, expecting a full-fledged altcoin season might be unrealistic. Investors would be wise to focus on fundamentally strong major projects.
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