Emre Yumlu 
In recent weeks, Bitcoin has started to detach from U.S. stock markets and move more like precious metals, signaling its growing role as a safe-haven asset amid global uncertainty.
Bitcoin Becomes Less Nasdaq, More Like Gold
According to Nansen CEO Alex Svanevik, Bitcoin has recently taken on a profile that is “less Nasdaq, more gold.” In the two-week period ending April 22, Bitcoin saw a 12% recovery, despite rising tensions between the U.S. and China over reciprocal tariffs. On April 9, the U.S. raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%, and China responded in kind on April 12.
During this escalation, Bitcoin proved more resilient than both altcoins and major equity indexes like the S&P 500. Svanevik said the performance highlights how investors are beginning to treat Bitcoin as a hedge in times of geopolitical and economic instability.
Still, he cautioned that the risk of economic recession could weigh on demand for speculative assets. However, regulatory momentum and the U.S. government’s evolving approach to Bitcoin reserves could act in BTC’s favor.
U.S. Explores Alternative Ways to Expand Bitcoin Reserves
In addition to holding BTC assets seized in criminal cases, the U.S. government is now working on “budget-neutral strategies” to increase its Bitcoin holdings. As part of an executive order signed by President Donald Trump, discussions include using tariff revenue and reassessing Treasury gold certificates to fund additional purchases—without needing to sell gold.
Bo Hines, a member of the Presidential Council of Advisers for Digital Assets, said on April 14 that the government is actively exploring “many creative ways” to support its Bitcoin strategy.
Recession Risk Rises: What It Means for Bitcoin
According to a report released by JPMorgan on April 15, the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 has risen to 60%. The report noted that although recent reductions in Liberation Day tariffs have softened some of the global trade shock, the remaining 10% universal tariff and 145% rate on Chinese imports still pose a serious threat to economic growth.
JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in September 2025, continuing through early 2026, with the policy rate potentially reaching 3% by mid-2026.
With these macroeconomic pressures mounting, the market is entering a period that could define whether Bitcoin emerges as a reliable hedge—or remains categorized as a high-risk asset.