Yeliz Akmaca 
Bitcoin has reached a critical threshold that will determine its direction ahead of the FOMC meeting and CPI data. Peter Brandt stated that Bitcoin has experienced a strong breakout and predicted the next target to be $140,000. Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes forecasted that BTC will drop to $90,000 before the Jackson Hole meeting.
The BTC/USD pair rose by 2.43% in the last 24 hours, reaching $109,500, with trading volume increasing by 20% to $56 billion. The main driver behind this rise is Bitcoin’s synchronized movement with the global M2 money supply. The M2 money supply has reached an all-time high of $55.48 trillion.
Additionally, Coinglass data supports the upward trend. A 7.28% increase in open interest on BTC futures indicates a generally bullish market.
Peter Brandt’s Bold Bitcoin Prediction: $140K Target in Sight
The analyst emphasized Bitcoin is in a strong breakout pattern in a chart shared on the X platform. Brandt questioned, “Isn’t this bearish flag too obvious to fail?” According to Brandt, after this breakout, BTC is aiming first for $104,000, then $140,000. This outlook aligns with forecasts from major institutions like Standard Chartered and is supported by the Global M2 curve that Bitcoin has followed consistently since early 2024.
Is this bear flag (yellow box) so obvious to everyone so as to not work?
Or is this chart about to drop off a cliff?
Just asking. CTB$ pic.twitter.com/x3c9ABwVx5— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) July 3, 2025
Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin to $90K Before Jackson Hole
However, Maelstrom Fund CIO Arthur Hayes is more cautious. He believes June’s CPI data and July’s FOMC decision may tighten market liquidity. The restructuring of the Treasury General Account (TGA) could significantly withdraw liquidity from the market.
Hayes stated, “The market will move sideways or slightly down until Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.” He highlighted a potential drop to the $90,000–$95,000 range for BTC. Preparing for this scenario, Maelstrom Fund sold illiquid altcoin positions and reduced Bitcoin exposure.
FOMC and CPI Data to Decide Bitcoin’s Fate
Ultimately, Bitcoin’s direction will largely depend on economic data and central bank decisions. If inflation falls below expectations, real yields remain low, attracting capital to non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Furthermore, if the Fed softens its hawkish stance and slows balance sheet reduction, it could trigger a new bull run.
CPI data and the Fed’s tone will determine the strength of this move. The battle between bulls and bears will become clearer in the coming days.
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