Bitcoin has dropped 22.5% over the past month, briefly hitting its lowest levels in over a year before rebounding. This move has intensified discussions around market cycles, technical indicators, and on-chain signals. Amid rising uncertainty, many analysts are now focusing on key price areas below $40,000.

What Do Historical Cycles and Fibonacci Suggest?

On February 6, Bitcoin fell to $60,000 before rebounding to $70,354. 10x Research emphasized that although market sentiment and technical indicators were approaching extreme levels, the overall downward trend continues. Historical bear markets show that Bitcoin tends to follow certain mathematical ratios.

Analyst Ardi examined Fibonacci retracement levels linked to past cycle lows. Bitcoin bottomed at the 78.6% Fibonacci level during the 2022 bear market, currently around $39,176. Analyst Nehal highlighted historical drops: 93% in 2011, 86% in 2015, 84% in 2018, and 77% in 2022. Applying this model to the current cycle suggests a potential bottom around $38,000.

On-chain data also provides insights. Analyst Ted Pillows noted that when prices fall roughly 15% below the average cost for long-term holders, cycle lows typically occur. With the realized price around $40,300, this model suggests a potential bottom near $34,500—though Pillows personally doubts it will drop that low.

On-Chain Signals and the $50,000 Threshold

Some analysts believe Bitcoin’s bottom may already have formed, making a deeper bear market less likely. One analyst noted that past cycle bottoms often occurred just below all-time highs.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs and growing institutional involvement are cited as factors that make drops below $50,000 increasingly unlikely:

“Volatility and sharp pullbacks can happen. But structurally, falling below $50,000 would require a breakdown. Institutional infrastructure and large capital are unlikely to allow this.”

Analyst Darkfost added that Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio has reached levels historically associated with the final stages of bear markets. While this signals potential market reversal zones, it does not necessarily indicate the end of the bear market. Prices could drop further over the next few months, with intermittent rallies along the way, as the risk-reward profile becomes increasingly extreme.

Technical Outlook and Support Levels

Our Coinmühendisi analyst noted that Bitcoin is in a downtrend across all timeframes, with a weekly close below $74,000 confirming a bearish bias. The next major support level is expected around $52,500, and retracements toward this zone should be considered normal.

The analyst also highlighted the possibility of market manipulation. Following the weekly confirmation, some traders may continue short positions. However, a break above this level could trigger upward momentum. Short-term rallies are inevitable, but weekly confirmation and trend structure should not be ignored.

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What the Technical Picture Signals for Pi Coin

Pi Coin moved higher in tandem with Bitcoin’s short-lived rebound, posting a reaction rally from its recent lows. This move carried the price toward the 0.1527 dollar zone, an area that stands out as a major resistance based on prior price structure and historical reactions. For now, Pi Coin has been rejected from this level, mirroring Bitcoin’s own hesitation at resistance.

The next phase will be defined by whether Pi can avoid setting a fresh lower low. If the current pullback results in a higher low and price attempts another push toward 0.1527 dollars, the probability of a breakout increases. A confirmed close above this level would mark a meaningful shift in short-term momentum and potentially alter the broader technical narrative.

Upside Scenarios and Key Targets

Should Pi Coin reclaim 0.1527 dollars decisively, the next upside objective comes into view at 0.1770 dollars. This zone is notable due to the concentration of short positions accumulated below it. A move into this range could trigger short liquidations, accelerating upside momentum as forced buying enters the market.

From a higher-timeframe perspective, weekly price behavior is particularly important. A weekly close above 0.1527 dollars, which aligns with the October 10 wick on the chart, would suggest that Pi Coin has preserved its broader structure. Such a development could open the door to a more sustained recovery phase rather than a purely technical bounce.

Broader Market Conditions Remain a Headwind

Any assessment of Pi Coin must be framed within the wider market context. The total crypto market capitalization has declined by approximately 5.04%, reflecting a broad risk-off environment. As selling pressure intensified across altcoins, Pi Coin followed suit, underscoring the systemic nature of the move.

At the same time, rising Bitcoin dominance has redirected liquidity away from secondary assets, compressing relative demand for Pi. Currently trading around 0.1444 dollars, Pi Coin has also seen a sharp increase in trading activity. Volume surged by 126.75% to roughly 35.3 million dollars, a pattern more consistent with active distribution than passive consolidation.

Fragile Structure, But Worth Monitoring

In the near term, Pi Coin’s trajectory remains closely tied to Bitcoin’s search for structural support. As long as bearish pressure persists at the macro level, momentum is likely to stay fragile. However, if broader conditions stabilize, Pi Coin may transition into a consolidation range above its recent lows.

Ultimately, the 0.1527 dollar level stands out as the defining threshold. How price behaves around this zone will likely determine whether Pi Coin can build a foundation for higher levels or remains trapped in a corrective phase.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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What Triggered the Rally in Story Protocol (IP)?

The primary catalyst behind IP’s recent surge was a network upgrade implemented on the protocol. Historically, such upgrades tend to fuel optimism around a project’s future roadmap, often leading to speculative buying in the short term. However, this price movement was not solely driven by fundamentals or development progress.

Derivatives market data played a key role. Funding rates had been hovering in negative territory, indicating that a large portion of traders were positioned for downside. When price unexpectedly moved higher, these short positions were forced to close, creating a short squeeze. This dynamic significantly amplified the upside momentum and accelerated the rally.

On-Chain Activity Tells a Different Story

Despite the strong price performance, Story Protocol’s on-chain economic activity remains relatively muted. Recent fee generation figures highlight the gap between valuation and actual network usage:

• January (to date): $520 in fees

• December: $600

• November: $2.6K

• October: $4K

• September: $12.7K

When compared against a market capitalization of approximately $1.37 billion and a fully diluted valuation near $4 billion, these figures underscore a notable mismatch. The data suggests that current valuations are being driven more by expectations than by present-day adoption or revenue generation.

Momentum vs. Fundamentals

The latest rally in IP appears to be largely momentum-driven, supported by technical catalysts and derivatives market mechanics rather than organic demand on the network itself. While such conditions can sustain price action in the short term, they often prove fragile without a corresponding increase in real usage.

For medium- to long-term investors, the key variable will be whether Story Protocol can translate its vision into tangible adoption. Without a meaningful rise in on-chain activity, the current valuation may remain difficult to justify.

What Is Story Protocol (IP)?

Story Protocol positions itself as a programmable intellectual property (IP) network built on blockchain technology. Its core objective is to tokenize IP rights, transforming them into digital assets that can be licensed, shared, and commercialized in a decentralized and transparent manner.

Having secured $140 million in funding, the project has generated significant interest within the Web3 ecosystem. Over the long run, Story Protocol aims to build a more automated and fair IP economy for creators, developers, and brands.

This content is not investment advice

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In this article, we’ll take an in-depth look at Aster Coin’s price movements, analyze the 4-hour chart, and discuss its potential targets. We’ll also examine possible negative scenarios and highlight key points investors should pay attention to.

What’s the Latest on Aster Coin?

Recently, Aster Coin has drawn considerable attention, especially following posts by Binance founder CZ. His comment, “I’m buying and holding Aster,” caught the eyes of investors and triggered a notable price increase. Meanwhile, the buyback news also appears to have supported Aster Coin’s upward momentum.

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On the 4-hour chart, Aster Coin broke its descending trend and rose up to $1.25. At this point, the $1.25 resistance level was tested, but a rejection from that level caused the price to briefly fall back below the trendline. However, trading volume remains high, and if this volume continues, the descending trend could be broken again.

Potential Upside Targets

If Aster Coin maintains its high volume levels, it’s possible that the price could retest $1.25 in the near future. Should the $1.25 resistance be broken, the next potential target would be $1.51. Reaching this level would indicate that Aster Coin has gained strong bullish momentum.

Negative Scenario & Downside Risks

Alongside the positive outlook, there’s also a bearish scenario to consider. If Aster Coin remains below the current trendline, a correction down to $0.80 could occur. In this case, investors should exercise caution and closely monitor market developments.

Strategy for Aster Coin Investors

Aster Coin has drawn significant attention with both its buyback program and CZ’s public endorsement. During this process, technical indicators and volume data suggest possible trend breakouts and target levels.

Investors should:

• Watch the $1.25 and $1.51 resistance levels,
• And consider a potential correction toward $0.80 if the coin remains below the current trend.

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Bitcoin’s Profitable Supply and RPL Decline

Profitable BTC supply dropped from 98% to 78% over the past two weeks, indicating that most investors are at a loss or break-even and selling in panic.

The Realized Profit/Loss (RPL) ratio also fell from 1.2 to 0.7, reflecting more investors selling at a loss and a capitulation-like environment emerging in the market.

Panic Selling Accelerates

• Buyers remain cautious

• Market sentiment fragile

Low RPL suggests participants are exiting quickly rather than strategically taking profits. Combined with macro conditions (tight liquidity, risk-off sentiment), the market faces pressure.

Resistance and Support Levels

BTC lost its critical 4-hour support at $109,200 and pulled back to $107,300. If this level fails, a decline toward $105,000 is possible. Conversely, if the market reacts upward, intermediate resistance stands at $111,700 and major resistance at $116,000.

At the time of writing, BTC trades around $108,400.

Our analyst emphasizes that investors should closely monitor these critical levels. Stay updated with our latest Bitcoin analyses to track price movements.

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As of October 8, 2025, Aster Coin is trading at $2.05, drawing investor attention. But can Aster Coin really reach $4? Many investors believe that CZ’s frequently used “4” symbol carries a symbolic connection to this potential rally. Let’s examine both the technical and fundamental data.

Key Levels According to Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, Aster Coin has been testing the $2.14–$2.20 resistance zone for a while. A daily close above this level could strengthen expectations for a new all-time high (ATH).

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Meanwhile, a minor ascending trend has gradually formed in the price action. If this trend is broken, a short-term pullback to the $1.75 support zone may occur. However, current momentum slightly favors the bullish scenario.

What Does the Fundamental Analysis Say?

According to current data, AsterDEX has a Total Value Locked (TVL) of $2.43 billion, which stands out as a relatively high level among decentralized exchanges (DEXs).

The project also has a market capitalization of $3.37 billion, meaning that with just a 2x price increase, it could reach $6.7 billion. For a DEX with an average daily futures trading volume of $14–15 billion, many analysts consider this target achievable.

Additionally, the platform collects an average of $2.5 million in daily transaction fees, a key detail that sets AsterDEX apart from its competitors in terms of revenue generation.

So, Can It Really Reach $4?

Aster Coin is showing a strong outlook in both technical and fundamental indicators. In the short term, maintaining support above $2 and breaking through the resistance zone could push the price toward new targets. In the long term, the growth of the ecosystem, stable trading volumes, and sustained investor interest suggest that the $4 target may not be as distant as some think.

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What is TVL?

The TVL value is considered one of the most important indicators of confidence in a DeFi protocol. A low TVL shows that investors remain cautious, while Aster’s current chart indicates that investor confidence is quite strong.

ASTER Technical Analysis

Looking at Aster’s current technical analysis, it is observed that the price has been rejected from the Fibonacci zone. This situation signals that a short-term downward pullback may occur. In particular, the area tested by the price coincides with the fib 0.5 level and has also acted as a significant resistance point in past movements.

This intersection presents a strategic opportunity for investors. Gradual purchases in this region are considered a reasonable choice.

Team Performance and Future Expectations

The Aster team demonstrates a highly consistent performance in development and growth. The rapid upward trend has also attracted the attention of the community. If this pace is maintained, the project seems to have a strong possibility of reaching higher levels in the upcoming period.

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This content does not constitute investment advice.

Also, click here to read our exchange guide article titled What is Aster DEX? How to Use It?

What is Aster DEX? How to Use It?

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On September 19, 2025, BNB reached a new peak at $1,048. However, this rapid rise pushed the RSI indicator into the overbought zone, raising the possibility of a short-term correction. Analysts indicate that the price could pull back to around $1,012, which also aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement. If selling pressure increases, the 50-4H EMA at $974 stands out as a strong support level.

You may also find this interesting: DEAPcoin (DEP) Explained: PlayMining & Web3 Game Token

Analysts’ Year-End Expectations for BNB

Long-term technical indicators suggest that BNB could reach a price range between $1,250 and $1,565 by the end of the year. This forecast is particularly supported by the completion of the cup-and-handle formation and Fibonacci extensions. For instance, the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $1,037 serves as a strong support level.

Analysts’ BNB price predictions for the end of 2025 are as follows:

• CoinCodex: $1,054.40
• Kraken: $1,069.18
• Changelly: $676.31
• CoinCodex: potential increase up to $1,427.06

These predictions are based on technical analysis and market sentiment.

BNB’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric has risen above $600, indicating investor optimism. This is generally considered a sign of mid-cycle strength. Additionally, increasing trading volumes in BNB’s derivatives market and long-term overweight positions suggest that the bullish trend may continue.

How Is BNB’s Future Shaping Up?

Institutional investments and strategic partnerships play a key role in BNB’s value growth. For example, Nano Labs’ plan to purchase $1 billion worth of BNB is seen as a sign of adoption by institutional investors. Furthermore, Binance’s partnership with Franklin Templeton to develop digital asset products enhances confidence in Binance Coin. In light of technical indicators, on-chain data, and institutional investments, BNB could show strong performance through the end of 2025. However, investors should consider short-term corrections when planning their strategies. In the long term, the $1,250 – $1,565 range remains an achievable target for BNB.

Current Market Data

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BTCS recently executed its largest single ETH purchase in history. The 14,240 ETH acquisition increased total reserves above 70,000 ETH. Adding Pudgy Penguins brought high cultural value NFTs to the strong ETH base. Known for high floor prices and a supportive community, Pudgy Penguins has remained a top-tier collection in the NFT space since 2021. 

BTCS’s NFT Strategy Boosts Market Momentum 

This purchase reflects growing interest among companies including NFTs in corporate reserve strategies. Some experts compare this approach to MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin reserve model. Yuga Labs CEO Garga suggests NFT treasury companies could become a mainstream trend. NFTs provide cultural influence, strengthening brand connection and investor appeal. 

However, NFT price volatility and limited historical data carry risk. Nevertheless, the NFT market saw a 94% volume increase in July. Trading volume reached $6.6 billion. This recovery renewed interest in high-end collections. 

PENGU Shows Strong Technical Performance 

Following the news, PENGU rose 3.34%, outperforming the overall market’s 2.31% gain. Pudgy Penguins’ NFT floor price increased 7% weekly. The company also signed a licensing deal with China-based Suplay Inc. and gained brand space on a Williams Racing F1 car via Kraken, reaching over 85 million viewers. 

Meanwhile, PENGU trading volume rose 30% to $838 million. The token traded above key moving averages, showing strong technical momentum. Analysts predict that with the Robinhood listing, PENGU could approach DOGE price levels. August NFT market capitalization data will determine whether this momentum is sustainable. 

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Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, $ETH is strongly bullish, having decisively broken the critical $4,100 level over the weekend. Now, the only major resistance ahead is the ATH level. For $ETH, which continues its rise without testing the gained zones on the daily chart, the previous resistance at $4,100 has now become an important support. As long as daily closes stay above this level, no momentum loss is expected. 

In case of a pullback, the first level to watch is $4,100. However, short-term dips to $3,940 might be seen intraday to shake out buyers entering at this level. 

On lower timeframes

Looking at shorter timeframes, the price has not yet formed a new peak and has been limited to liquidity grabs only. Unless there is a 4-hour close above $4,333, it may seek to reclaim liquidity left below. The liquidity at the last confirmed peak of $4,142 remains open. With liquidity taken from this area, it may aim for a new higher peak. 

As long as closes remain above $4,142, the positive outlook will be maintained, and the structure in lower timeframes will not be broken. If only liquidity grabs occur below this zone without breaking it, the target remains a new peak. 

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