Market Shock Absorber: Bitcoin

While traditional stock markets were closed, BTC emerged as the only 24/7 liquid market. On February 28, the price dipped to $64,000; on March 2 to $66,000, March 7 to $68,000, March 12 to $69,400, and during the Saturday Harg Island attack, buyers appeared at $70,500. In other words, each wave of selling was met at a higher low than the previous one. This pattern shows that sellers are tiring while buyers are waiting in ambush.

The most striking point is Bitcoin’s performance compared to other assets over the same two-week period. Oil prices have risen more than 40% since the start of the conflict, the S&P 500 remained in a downtrend, gold prices fluctuated, and Asian stock markets recorded their worst week since March 2020. Bitcoin, however, absorbed all this turmoil faster and outperformed other assets.

Critical Squeeze: $74,000 Barrier

Technically, a rising base formed between $64,000 and $70,000. Each negative news triggered selling, but at higher levels than the previous one. During the March 12 tanker attack, the price held at $69,400 and during the Harg Island attack, it did not fall below $70,500. The $73,000–$74,000 range remains a ceiling that has rejected the price four times.

Low Levels:

• February 28 First Attack: $64,000

• March 2 Retaliation: $66,000

• March 7 Continuous Conflict: $68,000

• March 12 Tanker Attack: $69,400

Clearly, this narrowing triangle is likely to break in one direction.

Macro Context and Resilience

Trump stated that Iran’s energy infrastructure was not targeted; however, if the risk in the Strait of Hormuz continues, it will be reassessed. Iran continues to threaten retaliation on US-linked facilities. This conditional risk could lead to the largest supply disruption in history, according to the IEA.

Fortunately, the Bitcoin market has become leaner and more resilient after the massive liquidation wave in February. Weak hands have been eliminated; geopolitical shocks now fuel a stronger upward move rather than a destructive collapse.

Bitcoin is neither a fully safe haven nor a purely risky asset. When shocks arrive, it is the only traded asset that absorbs them faster than others, functioning as a 24/7 liquidity pool.

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Throughout the week, crypto prices have largely remained flat, with a slight increase on Friday. Total market capitalization has risen by $150 billion since Monday, though trading volumes and volatility remain subdued.

Bitcoin Options and Market Dynamics

This week’s Bitcoin options have a put/call ratio of around 0.97, meaning longs and shorts are closely matched. According to Coinglass, the “max pain” level is around $69,000. Many options expiring today are close to profitable levels, meaning investors could realize gains from their contracts.

Open interest (OI) on Deribit is highest at the $60,000 strike, with approximately $1.7 billion in bearish bets. Total Bitcoin options OI across all exchanges has climbed to $45.5 billion this March.

Greeks Live observed the market recovery, noting that Bitcoin has remained above the $70,000 psychological level and is “now poised to challenge $75,000.” Additionally, the flat forward implied volatility curve beyond March shows no significant premium for longer-dated options, suggesting balanced risk pricing.

On the Ethereum side, around 185,000 contracts are expiring, with a total value of $382 million, max pain at $2,000, and a put/call ratio of 1.2. Total ETH options OI across exchanges is around $7.9 billion. This brings the total notional value of crypto options expiring today to $2.3 billion.

Spot Markets and Altcoins

Spot markets also recorded gains, with total capitalization reaching $2.5 trillion, marking a weekly high.

Bitcoin tested the $72,000 level in early trading but faced resistance and pulled back. Ether rose about 4%, surpassing $2,100.

Altcoins mostly showed positive performance, with notable gains for Solana, Hyperliquid, Avalanche, and Sui. Pi Network (PI) jumped 33% to $0.29 following its Kraken listing.

The Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring today represent a total notional value of $2.3 billion. Max pain levels are near current prices, highlighting potential price pressure in the options market. Spot market movements remain limited, but psychological levels should be monitored.

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The US Dollar Index (DXY) doesn’t track the dollar against a single currency—it measures it collectively against six major currencies: the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. So when DXY tops 99.00, it shows the dollar’s overall strength on a global scale, not just against one currency.

DXY Breakout and Technical Dynamics

The index measures the dollar against six major currency pairs. In morning trading, it crossed 99.00. Volumes spiked. Truthfully, this came after a few months of consolidation—a sharp move. The euro and pound fell, yen also dropped. In other words, there’s a coordinated risk-off sentiment.

For instance, historically, geopolitical crises and dollar strength are tightly linked. Actually, in 2022, during the first days of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, similar patterns appeared. Back then, markets also quickly moved toward safe-haven assets.

Currently, staying above 99.00 could put the 100.00 level in sight. But uncertainty still dominates the market.

Middle East Conflict: Driving Safe-Haven Demand

Why is the dollar rising? Simply put: escalating military tensions in the Middle East and threats to global energy supply. Investors are fleeing riskier assets, turning to the US dollar as a safe haven. This perception of geopolitical risk is the main force pushing DXY above 99.00.

The intensifying military activity isn’t just a security issue—it also threatens the global energy supply chain. Conflicts are complex, involving many actors. Oil prices have risen—currently around $97.75 per barrel—but the dollar is moving faster. Some traders are focusing more on liquidity than commodities. In the short term, this risk-off sentiment strongly supports the dollar.

Currency Pairs and Corporate Impacts

When the dollar strengthens, winners and losers emerge. Emerging market currencies are particularly vulnerable. Debt is often in dollars, making repayments more expensive. The euro has hit lows in recent weeks. The Japanese yen is falling due to loose monetary policy, while the Fed’s hawkish stance pushes USD/JPY up. Could this conflict influence Fed interest rate decisions? Potentially, yes. Rising risks blur the economic outlook; if energy costs rise or growth slows, the Fed may postpone plans, directly affecting the dollar’s trajectory.

For companies, the impact is twofold. Overseas earnings shrink when converted to dollars, while importers benefit from stronger purchasing power. Historical examples show safe-haven moves start quickly, then slow. There’s currently no coordinated global intervention. So the dollar could remain strong in the near term.

Key Currency Pair Moves

• EUR/USD: Down 1.2% due to regional risk and energy concerns.

• USD/JPY: Up 1.5% from Fed-BoJ policy divergence.

• GBP/USD: Down 0.8% amid general risk-off sentiment.

Market Watch

• Fed Communication: Any change in interest rate guidance?

• Geopolitical Developments: Diplomacy progress or rising tensions?

• Commodity Prices: How are oil and gold moving?

• Capital Flows: Are funds moving into US assets?

Conclusion: DXY surpassing 99.00 highlights market concern. Escalating Middle East tensions triggered classic safe-haven demand. The move impacts currency pairs, corporate strategies, and global finance outlooks. In the short term, the dollar may continue to strengthen. Ultimately, the trajectory depends on geopolitical developments and central bank responses. Still, the dollar remains the world’s primary safe-haven asset.

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Wilcke’s move follows a similar step by another Ethereum insider, Vitalik Buterin, who sold roughly 17,196 ETH (~$34.96 million). However, the motivations differ: Buterin stated his proceeds will fund open-source software and hardware projects, while Wilcke has largely stepped back from active Ethereum development to focus on private gaming ventures.

“Round-Trip” Transactions and Market Interpretation

Blockchain analytics firm SpotOnChain noted that the ETH transferred to Kraken was previously withdrawn from the exchange roughly 10 months ago, aligning with one of Wilcke’s known primary wallets. At that time, ETH traded around $2,600. Analysts interpret this as assets being previously distributed for custody and now consolidated back to the exchange for potential sale. Despite the offloading, Wilcke still holds a significant on-chain position of 27,241 ETH, worth approximately $53.56 million.

Analyst Commentary: Ethereum at a Critical Reversal Zone

According to our analysts, Ethereum has reached a critical demand area, with $1,946 being a crucial level. A breach could push ETH back into a bearish structure.

Similar to Bitcoin, reversal requires observing specific breakouts. We will monitor 45-minute (45m) timeframes. Given it’s the weekend, caution is advised; structures bearish for months cannot turn bullish in a single day.

In these zones, buying should be considered only when reversal breakouts, rather than supports, occur. Downtrend markets can quickly lose support levels. To minimize losses, it is safer to act on small-timeframe breakouts, not just bouncing off supports.

ETH Price and Market Pressure

High-profile insider sales and technical risks continue to pressure ETH, which is currently trading around $1,944, struggling to maintain the psychological $2,000 support level. Experts also cite macroeconomic factors as contributing to the broader price decline. According to BeInCrypto, Ethereum has dropped 34% since the beginning of the year.

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US-Iran Tensions and the Oil Market

The US-Iran conflict has rapidly pushed Brent crude higher. According to Hayes, if prices remain at these levels, 10-year Treasury yields could spike in a volatile way, potentially driving the MOVE Index upward; this is considered a prerequisite for Fed money printing. It’s still early, but investors should watch this closely as an important indicator.

Similar past scenarios have prompted the Fed to expand its balance sheet and inject liquidity, supporting Bitcoin and other risk assets.

The Connection Between Oil, the Fed, and Bitcoin

When Middle East tensions push Brent crude higher, energy costs increase, creating inflationary pressure in the economy. Historically, the Fed has responded to economic stress or rising costs by providing liquidity through money printing or balance sheet expansion. While higher oil prices don’t directly force the Fed to print money, the chain reaction can boost liquidity and create upward pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets.

US Intervention and Oil Prices

US President Donald Trump previously confirmed that the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East could last for weeks. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has taken steps to keep oil prices in check. India was granted a 30-day waiver to buy Russian oil, temporarily stabilizing markets. Today, Brent crude is trading around $80, providing a fresh market signal for Google Discover.

Bitcoin and Crypto Market Reaction

Historically, Fed money printing has triggered sharp Bitcoin rallies. Currently, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are lagging due to low liquidity and bear market sentiment. Hayes notes that taking positions before confirmed Fed rate cuts or balance sheet expansions would be premature.

Crypto investors should also monitor rising inflation concerns, which could reduce the likelihood of Fed rate cuts. According to the CME FedWatch tool, a potential rate cut may occur in September.

Micro Data and Analytical Notes

• Brent crude: $80 (down ~1% today)

• 10-year Treasury yield: rising, aligned with MOVE Index

• MOVE Index: potential upward movement

• Bitcoin: liquidity is low, but potential rallies may occur with Fed intervention

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In recent weeks, the debate around crypto regulation in Washington has intensified. What appears to be a technical regulatory issue is increasingly becoming a broader struggle between traditional finance and the crypto industry over who will shape the future structure of digital finance.

Trump: “Americans Should Earn More on Their Money”

In a Truth Social post, Trump said the United States needs to finalize its crypto market structure legislation quickly. His message directly targeted banks, which he accused of trying to block new opportunities for Americans to earn returns on digital assets.

According to Trump, while banks are reporting record profits, they are attempting to prevent retail users from earning yield through stablecoins.

Trump wrote:

“The U.S. needs to get Market Structure done, ASAP. Americans should earn more money on their money. The Banks are hitting record profits, and we are not going to allow them to undermine our powerful Crypto Agenda.”

Political analysts in Washington interpreted the statement as a signal that the administration intends to push forward with crypto-friendly policy despite resistance from traditional financial institutions.

The Core Dispute: Stablecoin Yield

The biggest obstacle preventing the legislation from advancing in the Senate centers on a specific issue:

whether crypto exchanges should be allowed to offer yield-like rewards to users holding stablecoins.

Banks strongly oppose the model, arguing that stablecoin yield programs could directly compete with traditional bank deposits and savings accounts. Financial institutions are therefore pushing for stricter limitations within the legislation.

Crypto companies, however, argue the opposite. They claim that allowing users to earn yield on stablecoins is a natural extension of decentralized financial infrastructure.

Negotiations between the banking and crypto industries have been facilitated by White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt. However, the talks have already passed the administration’s informal March 1 deadline for reaching an agreement.

CLARITY Act Faces Uncertain Senate Support

Despite Trump’s call for urgency, the legislative path remains uncertain. The CLARITY Act, which aims to establish a regulatory framework for digital asset markets, still faces an unclear vote count in the Senate.

Without a compromise on stablecoin yield programs, the bill may struggle to secure the necessary support to pass.

Still, market expectations have recently improved. According to prediction market platform Polymarket, the probability that the legislation will pass in 2026 climbed to around 70% following Trump’s comments.

Divisions Inside the Crypto Industry

Interestingly, disagreements are not limited to banks and regulators. The crypto industry itself is also divided over the proposed legislation.

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson recently argued that the CLARITY Act should not move forward in its current form. Hoskinson suggested that several provisions in the bill could limit innovation within the crypto ecosystem.

Meanwhile, leaders from Ripple have taken a more pragmatic stance. Ripple’s CTO said that an imperfect regulatory framework is still better than having no regulatory clarity at all.

The disagreement highlights how the crypto sector does not always present a unified front when lobbying policymakers in Washington.

Could Banks Ultimately Lose the Stablecoin Fight?

Policy analyst Jaret Seiberg from TD Cowen believes banks could ultimately lose the battle over stablecoin yields. However, he warned that the dispute could drag on long enough to threaten the broader crypto market structure legislation itself.

In other words, a single unresolved issue—stablecoin yield programs—could delay the entire regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States.

A Broader Power Struggle in Washington

Recent developments show that crypto regulation in the U.S. has evolved beyond a technical financial policy discussion. Banks, fintech firms, crypto exchanges, and lawmakers are all attempting to shape the next generation of financial infrastructure.

Trump’s call for Congress to act “ASAP” therefore represents more than just a push for legislative speed.

It is also a signal in the ongoing political and economic struggle over who will define the future architecture of the global financial system.

For the crypto market, the key question remains simple but critical:

Will the United States move quickly to establish regulatory clarity and secure leadership in digital assets — or will the industry shift toward other global financial hubs?

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U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran sent Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down 375 points, oil prices up 8%, and gold futures up 1.6%. Traders remain on edge amid geopolitical tensions and worries about potential supply disruptions.

Equity Futures Slip and Safe‑Haven Shift

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slid 375 points (‑0.77%), the S&P 500 fell 0.74%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.85%. Gold futures climbed 1.6% as investors sought safety.

Today, spot gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $5,278/oz, while spot silver (XAG/USD) is near $95/oz. These moves reflect flight‑to‑safety demand as traders price in escalating risk.

Barclays strategist Ajay Rajadhyaksha sees the risk of a prolonged conflict higher than in 2024–2025, noting that habitual quick de‑escalation trading models may be premature for dip buying.

Oil Market Uncertainty and Strait of Hormuz Risk

U.S. crude prices jumped roughly 8% in early trading on fears that wider conflict could disrupt global supply. Iran remains the fourth‑largest OPEC producer, and leadership ambiguity persists.

A prolonged stoppage at the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for crude flows, could reverberate through global energy markets and reignite inflation pressures. Adam Hetts, Global Head of Multi‑Asset at Janus Henderson, said rising uncertainty dampens investor confidence and adds pressure on risk assets; extended uncertainty and higher oil could fuel inflation fears.

AI Sector Volatility Adds to Geopolitical Strain

The equity market was already fragile before the conflict. The S&P 500 closed February in the red, as investors questioned whether rapid AI adoption might disrupt traditional software business models. Rising automation and layoff concerns add to broader economic anxieties.

Citi strategists say short‑term impacts may be limited, but extended friction can’t be ruled out. The reported death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could amplify long‑term economic drag when coupled with AI‑driven business model shifts. The promise of efficiency takes a back seat under the shadow of geopolitical turmoil.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: How did the U.S.–Iran clash affect equity futures?
A: Dow, S&P and Nasdaq futures fell by roughly 0.7–0.85% as investors rotated into safe havens.

Q: Why did oil prices rise?
A: Tensions over Iran’s nuclear program and Middle East uncertainty raised concerns about supply disruptions, pushing oil up about 8%.

Q: How did gold react?
A: Gold futures rose 1.6% as traders sought safe‑haven assets amid risk aversion.

Q: Why is the Strait of Hormuz significant?
A: The strait is a critical global oil transit point; long‑term disruptions could trigger broader energy market volatility and inflationary pressures.

Q: How does Hamaney’s death affect markets?
A: Beyond short‑term swings, coupled with AI‑linked economic shifts, it may heighten prolonged friction in markets.

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In other words, the coming days combine macroeconomic signals and blockchain-level developments. When those two timelines overlap, markets often become more reactive.

Chiliz Buyback Burn and Apple Product Event Open the Week

The first trading day of the week starts with two different narratives — one from crypto, the other from big tech.

The Chiliz team plans to buy back and burn $CHZ throughout the week using protocol revenue generated from its fan token ecosystem. Buyback-and-burn mechanisms typically aim to tighten circulating supply. In practice, markets often react through short-term expectations before the structural effect appears.

On the technology side, Apple is expected to unveil and release new products. These events do not directly move crypto markets most of the time, but they can influence overall risk sentiment through technology stocks.

Turkey Inflation Data Arrives on Tuesday

The first major macro release of the week comes from Turkey.

The Turkish Statistical Institute will publish annual CPI inflation at 10:00 AM local time. Market expectations stand at 31.55%, while the previous figure was 30.65%.

Two crypto-related developments also land on the same day.

Astar Network’s long-discussed Tokenomics 3.0 governance vote will conclude. The proposal focuses on reducing network inflation and adjusting the token distribution structure.

Meanwhile, DUSK Network will activate the Aegis protocol upgrade, which is expected to introduce improvements related to validator mechanics and network security.

Wednesday: AI Energy Summit and China’s “Two Sessions”

Wednesday brings an unusual intersection of politics, technology and crypto infrastructure.

Executives from Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, xAI, Oracle and OpenAI are expected to meet President Donald Trump at the White House to sign a commitment aimed at powering their own AI data center infrastructure. The meeting highlights the growing importance of energy supply in the rapidly expanding AI sector.

On the blockchain side, Polygon will implement the Lisovo hard fork. Hard forks usually signal structural updates within a network. Sometimes it is transaction capacity, sometimes security layers, sometimes validator logic that changes.

At the same time, China’s annual political meetings known as the “Two Sessions” will begin. The gatherings — the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference — will continue until March 10.

Later in the evening, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report will be released at 22:00, providing qualitative insight into current economic conditions.

Friday: U.S. Jobs Report Becomes the Week’s Key Macro Event

The most important macro data of the week arrives on Friday.

The United States will release Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) at 16:30. The market expectation stands at 58,000 jobs, compared to the previous figure of 130,000.

At the same time, the U.S. unemployment rate will also be announced. Expectations are 4.3%, unchanged from the previous reading.

Employment data often plays a central role in shaping interest-rate expectations. Strong numbers can push the U.S. dollar and bond yields higher, while weaker figures sometimes ease pressure on risk assets.

The U.S. Macro Calendar Is Also Packed

Several additional economic indicators will be released throughout the week.

• The February ISM Manufacturing PMI arrives Monday.
• The ADP private employment report follows on Wednesday.
• Initial jobless claims will be released Thursday.

Friday then closes the week with both January retail sales data and the February employment report.

Taken together, the schedule suggests a week where macro data and crypto-specific developments unfold at the same time. Markets occasionally struggle with that kind of dual narrative — but it also tends to create movement.

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Tokenized Gold Leads Weekend Price Discovery

Gold pricing shifts onto blockchain networks once U.S. futures markets close. Theo CIO Iggy Ioppe said, “Onchain markets are responsible for virtually 100% of weekend price formation.”

CME gold futures stop trading Friday at 5:00 PM ET and reopen Sunday at 6:00 PM ET. Aside from OTC deals in Asia, most markets remain inactive. PAX Gold (PAXG) and Tether Gold (XAUt) thus become the only continuously available venues. “Weekend blockchain moves reflect in CME prices when markets reopen,” Ioppe added.

Anthropic CEO Criticizes Pentagon Decision

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called the U.S. government labeling his firm a “supply chain risk” unprecedented. Speaking to CBS News, he noted Americans have fundamental rights: not to be spied on, and military officers retaining decision-making authority rather than ceding it to machines.

The company had agreed with most AI use cases proposed by the Department of Defense, except fully autonomous weapons and mass surveillance.

OpenAI Wins Defense Contract Hours Later

OpenAI reached a deal to deploy AI models on the Pentagon’s classified networks. CEO Sam Altman wrote, “The department respects safety and works within our operating limits.”

The week has been turbulent for AI. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth designated Anthropic a “supply chain risk to national security,” requiring contractors to certify they do not use its models. President Trump directed federal agencies to halt Anthropic tech usage with a six-month transition.

Bitcoin & Geopolitical Concerns

Bitcoin trades around $66,000–$67,000. Tensions in the Middle East, especially Iran’s Hormuz Strait moves, affect oil prices and U.S. inflation expectations.

The potential impact on oil supply could push the U.S. Consumer Price Index to 5%, according to Kobeissi Letter, citing JPMorgan research. Historically, similar inflation periods prompted aggressive Fed rate hikes in March 2023.

Overall, the market is focused on TradFi reactions, while Bitcoin avoids major swings.

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Arkham Intelligence data reveals that the surge started from Binance’s hot wallet with 15,944 BTC (around $1.05 billion). Bybit saw $897 million, Bitfinex $814 million outflows. Kraken, Coinbase, Wintermute, and FalconX also executed hundreds of millions worth of transfers within the same 30-minute period.

Over 154,000 traders were liquidated, with total losses reaching $522 million. This wave of selling reflects a pattern that has repeated three times before.

Operation Epic Fury and Regional Chaos

The U.S. and Israel launched a joint operation, named “Operation Epic Fury” by the Pentagon. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed a “preemptive strike,” while former President Trump announced via Truth Social that the U.S. had initiated “large-scale combat operations.”

Iran retaliated, targeting the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, and certain military installations in Kuwait and the UAE. Explosions occurred in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, with one fatality caused by debris from intercepted missiles. UAE airspace was closed.

This backdrop makes it harder to interpret sudden, large Bitcoin outflows. The same wallets had already been identified in previous 30-minute spikes.

History Repeats: October 2025 and Previous Moves

On October 10, 2025, on-chain analysts reported that Wintermute transferred $700 million to Binance hours before $19 billion in leveraged long positions were liquidated. This crash coincided with Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on China.

Two weeks earlier, $2.5 billion in BTC was sold within 30 minutes. These sales were also linked to Binance, Coinbase, and Wintermute wallets. Wintermute CEO Evgeny Gaevoy dismissed the claims, saying it was “a sudden crash in a low-liquidity, leveraged market affected by macro news on a Friday night.”

Former CFTC regulator Salman Banaei had a different view: “Regulators should launch an investigation into what happened on October 10, 2025.” Exchanges have not commented on today’s outflows.

Bitcoin Technical and Psychological Levels

Bitcoin still trades 49% below its $126,000 all-time high. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 14. Key support is at $63,100; a breach could trigger Deribit’s 5,200 BTC open put positions toward $60,000.

Historical data shows potential recovery. After Iran’s missile attacks in April 2024, BTC dropped to $61,000 before reaching new highs. Israel’s strike on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 pushed BTC down to $103,000, but it rose above $125,000 by October.

The market remains fragile. According to CryptoQuant, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are net sellers this month. The short-term direction remains uncertain.

Micro Perspective: Exchanges and Liquidation Traps

Some analysts argue that these rapid outflows aren’t genuine selling but exchange-driven liquidation events. Binance, Coinbase, and Wintermute wallets appear to trigger instant liquidations to manipulate market moves. The pattern is consistent: keep major holders calm, force thin order books, trigger stops, and enforce liquidations.

Smart investors monitor on-chain flows to separate real movement from engineered ones.

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