TRUMP Coin Event Details

According to the announcement, the event organizers will strictly limit participation. Only the top 297 participants will be invited to the lunch on April 25, and they will meet with 18 top-level guests labeled as “Superstars.” Former President Donald Trump is expected to be among these 18. The requirement to be among the top 297 token holders has triggered purchases and short-term speculative demand as investors seek to climb the wallet rankings.

Additionally, 29 selected participants will have the right to join a VIP tour of Mar‑a‑Lago during the event. Participation depends on TRUMP Reward Points, reflecting each user’s holdings and position on the leaderboard. The leaderboard is updated hourly, displaying the usernames of top participants alongside their VIP tags. Anyone wishing to attend must register, but no public registration link was provided in the announcement image.

Behind the Rise: Expectation and Past Performance

The market is treating today’s price movement as a “buying the expectation” operation. Last year’s dinner featured notable figures like Justin Sun, suggesting that similar profiles may appear this year.

TRUMP token fell approximately 96% from its January 2025 peak of $73, reaching around $2.70. Investors are viewing such event news as a short-term trend reversal signal. Now, the token has surpassed the $3 mark.

TRUMP Coin falls into the meme coin category and is the official token connected to former U.S. President Donald Trump, operating on the Solana blockchain. These assets typically fluctuate based on community interest, news, and event announcements, with their value largely driven by speculative and investor psychology.

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Exchange Inflows Are Slowing

In early February, as Bitcoin slid toward the $60,000 level, deposits to centralized exchanges surged to approximately 60,000 BTC. Over the past seven days, however, the average has dropped to around 23,000 BTC.

This decline points to a moderation in the intense wave of selling seen earlier in the month. Lower exchange inflows typically translate into reduced immediate sell pressure, as fewer coins are positioned for liquidation. That said, inflows remain elevated compared to previous months, indicating that distribution has not fully subsided. The market may have exited the most aggressive phase of the sell-off, but conditions remain fragile.

Whale Activity Dominates the Flow

Although total inflows have decreased, the composition of those inflows has become more concentrated. The “Exchange Whale Ratio,” which measures the share of the top 10 deposits relative to total exchange inflows, has climbed to 0.64 — its highest level since 2015.

In practical terms, 64% of all Bitcoin sent to exchanges is coming from the largest transfer transactions. This suggests that major holders continue to offload positions. Throughout 2025, analysts have described the market as undergoing a “great redistribution,” with long-term holders transferring substantial amounts of BTC to new participants in multiple waves.

The data implies that while smaller flows are tapering off, whales remain active sellers, maintaining structural pressure on price.

Is Another Leg Down Ahead for Bitcoin?

On-chain indicators also hint that a near-term breakout may be unlikely. Some models place Bitcoin’s potential “ultimate bear market bottom” near $55,000. At the same time, declining USDT inflows to exchanges suggest that available sidelined capital — often referred to as “dry powder” — is diminishing.

Prediction market probabilities further reflect caution. Current pricing implies a 57% chance that Bitcoin falls to $55,000 before rebounding to $84,000.

Overall, while the sharpest phase of selling may have eased, persistent whale distribution suggests that caution remains warranted.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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The Invisible Ceiling Below $90,000

At the start of last month, traditional markets were showing strength. Precious metals pushed to new highs, and equities maintained bullish momentum. Bitcoin, however, moved sideways and showed little follow-through on upside attempts. Each rally stalled just below $90,000, a behavior that, in retrospect, signaled vulnerability.

According to market observers, this persistent failure was not coincidental. Repeated rejection at the same price zone suggested the presence of structural resistance rather than a lack of demand driven by sentiment or fundamentals. The eventual breakdown toward the $75,000 area confirmed that this level had acted as a hidden ceiling for weeks.

Liquidity Pressure Inside the Order Book

Detailed order-book analysis revealed a consistent pattern: heavy sell orders were repeatedly placed just above the spot price. These visible sell walls discouraged aggressive buying and capped upward momentum even when broader market conditions appeared favorable.

This phenomenon is often described as “liquidity steering.” Large participants can influence short-term price behavior by positioning sizeable orders at strategic levels. When traders see thick sell liquidity overhead, upside risk increases, prompting hesitation. As buyers step back, price drifts sideways or lower, allowing dominant players to accumulate positions more quietly at improved levels.

Crucially, this approach does not depend on news catalysts or macro data. Instead, it exploits trader psychology and the transparency of order books, a tactic that tends to surface around key periods such as options expiries or monthly closes.

Bitcoin 87,500 Dollars: A Fragile Support Zone

At the same time, order-book data showed a dense cluster of buy orders forming between roughly $85,000 and $87,500. This zone absorbed selling pressure multiple times and acted as a short-term floor during Bitcoin’s consolidation phase.

As long as this support held, the market retained the potential for another upside attempt. However, once price slipped below the lower end of this bid cluster, liquidity thinned dramatically. Selling accelerated, and Bitcoin quickly dropped into the $74,000–$76,000 range, highlighting how quickly conditions can deteriorate when structural support fails.

A Shift in Market Regime

Some analysts had warned that a monthly close below approximately $87,500 would mark a clear technical breakdown. Such a move signals a transition into a weaker market phase, where declining confidence reinforces downside momentum.

In summary, Bitcoin’s failure to rally alongside gold and silver was less about external narratives and more about internal market mechanics. The same order-book dynamics that kept price pinned below resistance ultimately left Bitcoin exposed once support gave way.

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Over the past week, the total market capitalization of memecoins increased by more than 23%, rising from approximately $38 billion to $47.7 billion. This sudden recovery suggests a noticeable shift in investor behavior, particularly after risk appetite weakened significantly toward the end of last year.

Trading Activity Surges Across the Sector

The rebound in prices has been accompanied by a dramatic increase in transaction volume. Daily memecoin trading volume jumped from around $2.17 billion on December 29 to $8.7 billion within days. This nearly 300% rise highlights not only speculative interest but also a return of active participation across the market.

Large-cap memecoins have been leading the move. Dogecoin recorded gains of over 20% in the past week, while Shiba Inu climbed close to 19.9%. Pepe stood out with a surge exceeding 65%, making it one of the strongest performers during the rebound.

A Reaction After a Difficult 2025

Throughout 2025, memecoins experienced a deep and prolonged correction. The sector lost more than 65% of its value over the year, eventually bottoming out at a market capitalization of roughly $35 billion on December 19 — its lowest point of the year. This decline largely reflected reduced risk-taking across the broader crypto market.

Against this backdrop, the recent rally is widely interpreted as a sign that investors may once again be willing to allocate capital to higher-risk assets.

Could Memecoin Strength Spill Into Altcoins?

Market observers note that the memecoin recovery began shortly after pessimism among retail traders reached extreme levels. Historically, such conditions have often preceded sharp reversals, as markets tend to move against dominant expectations.

Some traders believe this renewed strength could extend beyond memecoins. In previous cycles, periods of strong memecoin performance were often followed by broader altcoin rallies. Solana, in particular, is frequently cited as one of the ecosystems that has historically benefited most from meme-driven momentum.

Broader Crypto Market Remains More Cautious

Despite the explosive move in memecoins, the wider crypto market has advanced at a more measured pace. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by just over 5%, rising from $2.97 trillion to $3.13 trillion.

Bitcoin gained roughly 5% over the same period, trading near $92,335, while Ether rose about 7.3% to around $3,168. Investor sentiment is also improving, with market indicators shifting back into neutral territory for the first time in months — a potential sign that confidence is gradually stabilizing.

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What Long-Term Indicators Are Signaling

Several composite indicators used to assess Bitcoin’s overall market health evaluate variables such as network usage, investor profitability, demand dynamics, and liquidity conditions. A notable portion of these indicators began to weaken in early November and have yet to show meaningful recovery. This persistence is often interpreted as a sign that downside pressure is becoming structural rather than temporary.

From a technical standpoint, one of the most widely followed confirmations of a bear market is Bitcoin’s move below its one-year moving average. This indicator reflects the average price over the past 12 months and is commonly used to identify long-term trends. When Bitcoin trades below this level for an extended period, it is frequently viewed as confirmation that bullish momentum has broken down.

Bitcoin’s 2025 Price Performance

Bitcoin entered 2025 trading near the $93,000 level and experienced a strong rally in the first part of the year. This advance culminated in a peak of $126,080 in October. However, prices failed to hold those levels, and Bitcoin ultimately declined to finish the year below where it began. This sequence — a sharp peak followed by sustained weakness — has reinforced concerns that the broader trend has shifted.

Potential Bear Market Bottom: $56,000–$60,000

Historical bear markets in crypto have often followed a similar pattern: after significant excess during bull phases, prices tend to retrace toward the realized price. This level represents the average cost basis of Bitcoin holders and has frequently acted as a long-term support zone during market downturns.

Based on prior cycles and current valuation metrics, a potential bottom in the range of $56,000 to $60,000 is considered plausible over the coming period. This would align with historical behavior observed during previous bear markets.

Why This Bear Market May Be Different

A decline to the $56,000 level would represent roughly a 55% drawdown from Bitcoin’s all-time high. While substantial, this would still be notably milder than the 70–80% declines seen in earlier cycles. Additionally, the absence of major systemic failures or high-profile collapses suggests a more orderly market environment.

Another key difference lies in market structure. Institutional participation, ETF-related demand, and a broader base of long-term investors have introduced more consistent buying behavior. Unlike previous bear markets, where demand largely vanished, current conditions suggest a more resilient and mature ecosystem. These structural changes may ultimately limit downside volatility and support long-term stability for Bitcoin.

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4,279 BTC Added in Q4 2025

During the fourth quarter of 2025, Metaplanet purchased an additional 4,279 Bitcoin for approximately $375 million. Following this transaction, the company’s total Bitcoin holdings increased to 35,102 BTC. At current market prices, these reserves are valued at roughly $3 billion.

This rapid accumulation has positioned Metaplanet among the largest corporate Bitcoin holders in Asia. The scale and timing of the purchase suggest a high level of confidence in Bitcoin as a strategic asset rather than a short-term investment.

Why Metaplanet Chose Bitcoin

Metaplanet’s pivot toward Bitcoin is the result of a deliberate strategic shift initiated in 2024. The company adopted Bitcoin as a core treasury asset in response to long-term concerns surrounding the Japanese yen and broader monetary conditions.

Bitcoin’s fixed supply, decentralized structure, and independence from political influence play a central role in this strategy. Metaplanet views these characteristics as essential for preserving value over the long term, particularly in an environment where traditional fiat currencies face persistent debasement risks.

By integrating Bitcoin into its balance sheet, the company aims to establish a corporate standard centered on sound, scarcity-based monetary principles.

Exceptional Performance in 2025

The financial impact of this strategy has been substantial. Throughout 2025, Metaplanet recorded a year-to-date yield of 568.2% driven by its Bitcoin-focused treasury approach. This performance underscores how Bitcoin has functioned not only as a hedge but also as a powerful contributor to shareholder value.

Rather than treating Bitcoin as a passive reserve, Metaplanet has actively aligned its corporate structure around the asset, amplifying its balance sheet performance during a volatile market cycle.

What Is Metaplanet?

Metaplanet Inc. is a publicly listed Japanese company trading on the Tokyo Stock Exchange under the ticker 3350. Founded in 1999, the firm has operated across multiple sectors, including finance, trading, and real estate.

In recent years, Metaplanet has redefined its corporate identity by focusing on Bitcoin and digital asset strategies. Its long-term objective is to position Bitcoin as a foundational reserve asset while building complementary business verticals aligned with this vision.

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This purchase corresponds to approximately 900,000 TCY, which equals about 27.9%. The goal here is not only to monitor the protocol’s debt conversion strategy but also to ensure long-term confidence and create strategic opportunities.

What is THORChain?

THORChain is a decentralized cross-chain liquidity protocol that allows users to swap assets between different blockchain networks. One of the most important innovations that has emerged in the decentralized finance (DeFi) space is the automated market maker (AMM) model.

This article may also interest you: Bloomberg Analyst Reveals Critical Levels for Bitcoin (BTC)!

What is TCY?

THORChain Yield ($TCY) was created as a token developed to solve the debt crisis that THORChain experienced for a certain period. Through Proposal 6, TCY aims to help debt creditors compensate their receivables at a rate of “1 TCY = $1”.

TCY holders can continuously receive 10% of THORChain’s revenue, which essentially turns creditors into long-term partners of the protocol.

How Will the $5 Million Buyback Work?

A total of $5 million from the THORChain treasury has been allocated for a buyback plan designed to support the TCY price and strengthen liquidity. Current progress shows that approximately 27.9% of the program has been completed, resulting in nearly 900,000 TCY being purchased. The plan includes weekly TCY buybacks worth $500,000, forming a 10-week process that can be clearly monitored through tracking channels such as Raynalytics.

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“Bit-Dog” Comment and Signs of a Cycle Peak

During a recent appearance, McGlone described Bitcoin’s current performance as a “Bit-Dog,” suggesting that the asset has fallen short of expectations. According to him, the rally seen in previous months was fueled by strong ETF inflows, the halving cycle, and positive sentiment from the Trump administration. However, he believes these catalysts have already run their course, leaving the market in a typical post-peak correction phase.

McGlone also noted that the weakness is not limited to Bitcoin alone. The broader crypto market has mirrored this decline, with the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index falling by 21% in recent weeks—an indicator he considers consistent with a fading bullish trend.

Key Support and Resistance Levels for Bitcoin

While Bitcoin is currently trading roughly 10% lower on a year-to-date basis, McGlone emphasized that the more important question is the direction of the next major move. He pointed out that the persistently low volatility in equity markets, reflected in the subdued VIX index, could signal an increasing shift toward risk aversion heading into year-end.

From a technical perspective, McGlone highlighted two crucial levels:

• Support: $84,000

• Resistance: $94,000

He noted that Bitcoin was unable to hold the psychological level of $100,000 during the latest pullback, warning that a break below $84,000 could open the door to a more pronounced downturn.

The $50,000 Scenario Remains on the Table

Contrary to broader market expectations of a rebound, McGlone argued that the probability of Bitcoin moving lower outweighs the likelihood of a renewed uptrend. In his view, a drop toward $50,000 becomes increasingly possible if the $84,000 support level fails.

He emphasized that the $50,000 region represents a historically significant zone, dating back to the 2020–2021 cycle, and remains a decisive long-term support area for market participants.

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Liquidity Pressures Trigger Market Retreat

The leading cryptocurrency fell to nearly $93,000 on Sunday before recovering to around $95,285 at the time of writing — its weakest level since early May.

Over the last 24 hours, the crypto market saw $619 million in liquidations, including $243 million from Bitcoin positions alone. Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index slipped to 10, signaling a state of “extreme fear.”

Derek Lim, Research Director at Caladan, attributes the sell-off primarily to liquidity shortages. He notes that the recent U.S. government shutdown left the Treasury General Account elevated, reducing liquidity across markets. Lim expects this pressure to ease as government spending resumes and postponed payments flow back into the system. He also points to Japan’s proposed 17 trillion yen ($110 billion) stimulus package as a potential catalyst for improved global liquidity.

Funding Stress Adds to Bearish Sentiment on Bitcoin

Edward Carroll, Head of Markets at MHC Digital Group, highlights growing stress signals in treasury bill spreads, repo markets, and other funding indicators — patterns reminiscent of 2018 and 2019. According to Carroll, crypto tends to react to such shifts ahead of traditional markets.

The weakened probability of another Federal Reserve rate cut in December and the $1.1 billion outflow from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs last week amplified the downward momentum.

Still, Carroll maintains that the mid-term outlook remains encouraging. He points to Bitcoin’s increasingly recognized role as a form of digital gold, expectations for a future liquidity recovery, and ongoing institutional engagement.

Bitcoin Analysis: Key Support Levels to Watch

BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas says Bitcoin is currently testing support near $94,000, with a more critical floor between $88,000 and $91,000. Lucas notes that while these levels signal a technical bear market, previous cycles have experienced similar drawdowns before pushing to new highs.

Lim adds that the 50-week simple moving average, now near $103,000, has become a crucial indicator. A weekly close below this level is often viewed as bearish, though he stresses that the true signal depends on whether Bitcoin remains below it for an extended period.

Altcoins Remain Under Pressure

Altcoins also faced notable losses. Ethereum slipped to $3,144, marking a 13.4% weekly drop. XRP traded around $2.23, while Solana fell 17% over the same period to $138.7.

Lim explains that altcoins typically require “excess liquidity” and “euphoric sentiment” to perform strongly — neither of which is currently present. As a result, he believes an altcoin season is unlikely in the near term.

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On September 7, 2025, the China National Natural Science Foundation decided to examine stablecoin risk management and issues arising from international regulatory cooperation. It also announced an Emergency Management Project to carry out the necessary research. The purpose of this initiative is to address growing concerns about the ethical implications of stablecoins on global finance. It also takes into account the current regulatory challenges that do not have a rapid impact on the markets.

China Takes the Lead in Stablecoin Regulation

There has been no response to this move by China in the cryptocurrency sector from key government officials or prominent figures in the industry. However, stablecoin regulation is among the issues receiving significant attention globally.

According to the official announcement by the NSFC, stablecoins—a form of digital asset designed to be pegged to the value of fiat currency or an asset—have significant cross-border liquidity potential. They serve as important bridges connecting the traditional crypto and financial worlds. Accordingly, stablecoins pose a major challenge for the regulatory framework of international monetary systems.

The Impact of Stablecoins on Global Financial Systems

Stablecoins have become the focus of serious debate in terms of cross-border money transfers and other monetary policies. According to Coincu research, regulatory clarity could further strengthen the integration process of stablecoins into financial systems. Looking at the historical process, it has been emphasized that coordinated regulations could reduce risks. At the same time, it has been highlighted that technological developments could also make this adoption process easier.

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