Global investors are now monitoring two key factors simultaneously: the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday and growing energy risks around the Strait of Hormuz. At this point, market behavior is sitting on a particularly sensitive equilibrium.

Why Gold Prices Remain Stable

Gold has remained resilient despite waning expectations for rate cuts, supported by a weaker dollar and declining U.S. Treasury yields. These factors offset inflationary pressure from high energy prices, keeping gold above $5,000.

Earlier on Monday, gold experienced a roughly 1% drop. However, losses were quickly recovered as the dollar weakened. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $5,020 per ounce.

Meanwhile, April U.S. gold futures fell 0.7% to $5,024 per ounce, showing that the market is still searching for direction. The key driver here is actually a threefold balance: the dollar, Treasury yields, and energy prices.

When the dollar weakens, dollar-denominated commodities such as gold become cheaper for holders of other currencies, stimulating global demand.

Additionally, falling 10-year U.S. Treasury yields provide support for gold, as non-yielding assets like gold and silver become more attractive when yields decline.

Oil Remains Above $100

The Middle East conflict is directly affecting energy markets. As tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran enter the third week, oil remains above $100 per barrel.

This situation not only impacts energy markets but also affects global inflation expectations. High oil prices increase transportation and production costs, thereby strengthening inflationary pressure.

Gold is generally seen as a hedge against inflation. However, if inflation rises and central banks are forced to maintain high rates, real yields could increase, limiting gold’s upside.

According to OCBC strategist Christopher Wong, high energy prices may make the Fed more cautious about rate cuts. Essentially, the market is caught between two forces: geopolitical and inflation risks on one side, and the possibility of higher rates on the other.

Market Waiting Ahead of Fed Decision

The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting concludes on Wednesday.

The market expects policy rates to remain unchanged, but investors are watching the Fed’s messaging closely.

If Fed officials signal that energy-driven inflation remains a concern, expectations for rate cuts could be further delayed.

Even if rates remain unchanged, changes in communication could swiftly shift market balance.

Meanwhile, the interplay of Treasury yields, the dollar index, and commodity prices is currently delicate. Small announcements can trigger significant price movements.

Strait of Hormuz Crisis and Energy Diplomacy

Geopolitical tensions remain high. Developments around the Strait of Hormuz are critical for global energy security.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced that his administration has held talks with seven countries to secure the Strait.

This move is not only military but also a signal of new energy diplomacy in the Gulf. Trump also threatened increased attacks on Iran’s main oil export terminal at Kharg Island, while stating that no peace agreement is currently on the table.

He emphasized that countries heavily reliant on Gulf oil bear responsibility for protecting the Strait.

This underscores that global energy supply is both an economic and security matter.

Other Precious Metals Gain

The cautious balance in gold has also extended to other precious metals.

Spot silver rose 0.1% to $80.62 per ounce. Platinum increased 1.8% to $2,060, while palladium climbed 1.6% to $1,576 per ounce.

Currently, the market is pricing three risk factors simultaneously: energy prices, geopolitical tensions, and Fed policy.

The coming days will reveal which direction this threefold equation pushes gold prices, as global market balance—risk premiums and real yields—is being recalculated in real time.

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The statement has attracted attention across global financial markets, as investors continue to speculate about the future direction of U.S. monetary policy and the potential impact on risk assets.

What Is Quantitative Easing?

Quantitative easing is a monetary policy tool typically used by central banks during periods of severe economic stress. Under this approach, a central bank purchases large quantities of government bonds and other financial assets from the market. The goal is to increase liquidity within the financial system, lower long-term interest rates, and stimulate economic activity.

The Federal Reserve has relied on QE in the past during major crises. Notably, the policy was widely used after the 2008 global financial crisis and again during the COVID-19 pandemic. These programs helped stabilize financial markets and supported economic recovery by injecting significant liquidity into the system.

Focus Remains on Policy Normalization

Bessent’s comments indicate that the U.S. economy is not currently facing the type of crisis that would require emergency monetary stimulus. As a result, the Federal Reserve appears to be maintaining its focus on policy normalization rather than returning to ultra-loose conditions.

At present, the Fed’s priorities remain centered on managing inflation and maintaining economic stability. Policymakers are attempting to ensure that inflation continues to moderate while keeping economic growth on a sustainable path.

This approach suggests that the central bank is likely to proceed cautiously, avoiding large-scale monetary stimulus unless economic conditions deteriorate significantly.

Implications for Financial Markets

The indication that QE is not on the near-term horizon carries important implications for financial markets. Historically, large liquidity injections from central banks have played a major role in fueling rallies across risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies.

However, the current outlook suggests that financial conditions could remain relatively tight compared to previous stimulus-driven cycles. Without the support of expansive liquidity programs, markets may experience a more restrained environment where fundamentals and macroeconomic data play a larger role in shaping price movements.

Outlook for Future Monetary Policy

While quantitative easing remains a powerful policy tool, Bessent’s remarks imply that its return would likely require a significant economic downturn or financial crisis. For now, policymakers appear committed to a more measured strategy focused on controlling inflation and maintaining macroeconomic stability.

As a result, expectations for an immediate return to large-scale monetary expansion remain limited, and global markets will continue to monitor economic data and central bank signals for clues about the next phase of policy.

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Rising geopolitical risks are complicating the picture further. Messages from Iran regarding the Hormuz Strait have heightened perceived energy risks. At this point, investors are closely watching both energy prices and today’s critical U.S. inflation data.

Oil Price Rally Pressures Gold

On Friday morning, spot gold traded around $5,112 per ounce, gaining roughly 0.7% intraday. April U.S. gold futures saw a slight decline, settling at $5,116.

The drop in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield could provide some support for non-yielding gold. Nevertheless, weekly performance shows more than a 1% decline. The key driver remains energy prices: the return of oil toward $100 raises expectations for renewed inflation pressure in the U.S. In market terms, as oil rises, the likelihood of Fed rate cuts gets delayed.

Hormuz Strait Tensions Ignite Energy Market

Tensions in the Middle East have escalated this week. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, said Tehran could use the strategic Hormuz Strait as leverage against the U.S. and Israel.

This statement triggered immediate reactions in the energy market. Attacks on Gulf oil tankers and stern warnings from Iran have undermined hopes that the conflict would ease quickly. Brent crude neared the $100 mark again, reviving global energy supply concerns and directly influencing inflation expectations.

Eyes on Fed Decision and PCE Inflation Data

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump again called on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates. Market expectations, however, point elsewhere.

According to CME FedWatch, investors anticipate the Fed will keep rates in the 3.5–3.75% range at its two-day meeting ending March 18.

The main focus for markets is today’s release of the U.S. January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. As the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, this data could reshape expectations for the central bank’s interest rate path.

On the metals front, gains were modestly positive. Spot silver rose 1% to $84.59 per ounce. Platinum gained 1.2% to $2,157, while palladium increased 1.1% to $1,636 per ounce.

Energy prices saw a small pullback. The U.S. issued 30-day licenses allowing countries to purchase stranded Russian crude and petroleum products, slightly easing prices. Brent remained around $99.8, and WTI crude stayed near $95 per barrel.

Why Is Gold Falling?
Rising oil prices increase inflation risks, weakening expectations for a Fed rate cut. Higher interest rate expectations typically place downward pressure on gold prices.

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Gold prices started Thursday with a limited decline. Spot gold traded at $5,153.79 per ounce, falling about 0.4%. At the same time, U.S. gold futures for April delivery also dropped 0.4% to $5,159.20.

Several factors are driving this move. The most notable is the strengthening U.S. dollar. The dollar index rose around 0.2%, making dollar-denominated assets such as gold and silver more expensive for investors holding other currencies. The market’s familiar reaction followed: as the dollar gained strength, gold stepped back slightly.

Oil prices climb above $100 again

The energy market is telling a very different story. Rising tensions in the Middle East have triggered sharp price movements in oil markets. With Iran increasing attacks across the region, oil prices have climbed back above $100 per barrel.

Tehran has also warned that the world should prepare for a potential $200 per barrel oil scenario. Such statements have created a psychological impact on markets, pushing the geopolitical risk premium higher.

The situation is not limited to rhetoric. According to sources, Iran is believed to have placed roughly a dozen naval mines near the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway is a critical route for global oil and LNG shipments, and tanker traffic there has nearly come to a halt.

Some tankers have reportedly been stranded for more than a week, and storage capacities are approaching their limits. As a result, certain producers have temporarily paused production. In other words, the recent rise in oil prices is not driven solely by geopolitical messaging but also by logistical disruptions.

IEA moves to release reserves

In an effort to limit the shock in energy markets, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has taken a significant step. The agency approved the release of 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves.

This is considered one of the largest coordinated reserve releases in the oil market in decades. However, analysts suggest it may not be enough to push prices down in a lasting way. The issue now extends beyond supply levels; geopolitical risk and transportation security have become central to market pricing.

Fed rate cut expectations pushed back

Rising energy prices are also reviving inflation concerns. Higher oil costs could increase global price pressures in the months ahead.

Because of this, some financial institutions are reassessing the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate timeline. Goldman Sachs has delayed its forecast for Fed rate cuts, citing rising inflation risks linked to the Middle East conflict. The bank now expects two quarter-point rate cuts in September and December.

Macroeconomic data has been relatively balanced so far. According to the latest figures, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.3% in February, matching expectations. In January, the monthly increase had been 0.2%.

On a yearly basis, inflation reached 2.4%, again in line with forecasts. However, the renewed rise in energy prices could complicate this balance in the coming months.

Markets await the PCE inflation report

Investors are now focused on the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, one of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicators. The data is scheduled to be released on Friday.

If the PCE figure comes in stronger than expected, expectations for rate cuts could be pushed further into the future. Such a scenario may continue to create short-term pressure on gold prices.

Silver, platinum and palladium prices

The precious metals market showed mixed movements beyond gold.

• Spot silver: down 0.5% to $85.33

• Spot platinum: down 0.3% to $2,162.24

• Palladium: up 0.3% to $1,642.05

Overall, the market is not moving in a single direction. Energy prices are rising while precious metals are experiencing cautious pullbacks. On one side lies geopolitical risk; on the other, shifting interest-rate expectations. Markets appear to be pricing in two competing narratives at the same time.

In short, the surge in oil prices is indirectly affecting the gold market through inflation expectations and interest-rate outlooks. Over the coming days, developments in energy markets and upcoming U.S. economic data could play a decisive role in shaping the direction of precious metals.

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At first glance, the data presents a calm picture since the figures aligned perfectly with forecasts. However, in macroeconomic indicators, the most important message is sometimes hidden in numbers that do not change. The fact that inflation has remained at the same level for two consecutive months suggests that price pressures have not completely disappeared, yet a new acceleration phase has not emerged either.

Core Inflation Remains Sticky

Alongside the headline figure, another key indicator closely monitored by markets is core inflation (Core CPI). Annual core inflation, which excludes food and energy components, was 2.5% in February 2026, the same level recorded in January.

This pattern indicates that certain components of inflation still display a “sticky” structure. Price pressures—particularly within the services sector and some essential consumption categories—are easing more slowly, which keeps the core data relatively elevated.

In other words, the persistence of inflation is also visible in the core measure; core CPI remaining steady at 2.5% year-over-year suggests that price pressures across the broader economy have not yet been fully broken.

Markets Show a “Calm but Cautious” Reaction

Because the data matched expectations, financial markets did not experience sharp price movements. Still, a noticeable balance-seeking behavior appeared across several major assets.

• US Dollar Index (DXY): Continued its sideways movement without a significant deviation after the data release.

• Gold: Spot gold prices remained near the $5,190 resistance zone, reflecting the slower pace of disinflation.

• US 10-year Treasury yields: Continued hovering around 4%, as concerns persist that the Fed may delay potential rate cuts.

Overall, the reaction suggests that markets interpreted the data not as a major surprise but rather as confirmation of existing expectations.

All Eyes on the March Fed Meeting

Following the inflation release, market attention has now shifted toward the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed’s next interest rate decision meeting is scheduled for March 17–18, 2026.

The updated economic projections, growth forecasts, and signals regarding the future rate path that will be released during this meeting could shape the direction of monetary policy for the rest of the year. In particular, the speed at which inflation moves toward the Fed’s target will remain a key factor in determining the timing of potential rate cuts.

For now, the consensus across markets is relatively clear: the data appears calm, but the Fed’s signals will ultimately determine the next move.

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Spot gold gained 0.2% to $5,202.10 per ounce. April-delivery US gold futures fell 0.6% to $5,211. Oil prices dropped below $90 per barrel. Gold has gained more than 20% this year amid rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty, reaching consecutive record levels.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, investors expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at its two-day meeting on March 18 but still anticipate at least two rate cuts this year.

Fluctuations in Silver, Platinum, and Palladium

Spot silver fell 0.2% to $88.24 per ounce. Spot platinum rose 0.1% to $2,202.52, while palladium gained 0.9% to $1,669.82.

Investors are unsettled by uncertainty over the future of the Iran conflict. The dollar has shown volatility. Global markets are pricing in US President Donald Trump’s efforts to end the conflict soon. At the same time, Trump continues to threaten harsh penalties against Iran over attempts to block energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Short-Term Reactions in the Currency Market

• The euro rebounded slightly by 0.18% to $1.163175 from Monday’s three-month low. The pound rose 0.25% to $1.3449.
• The US dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, fell to 98.773, near Monday’s three-month high.

Rising Tensions in the Middle East: Investors on Edge

On the 12th day of the war, the US and Israel conducted reciprocal airstrikes against Iranian forces across the Middle East. The besieged Tehran government warned that state security forces are “on alert with fingers ready” if anti-government protests flare up again.

Rapidly developing events are forcing investors to price risk carefully. Another key focus is the February US inflation data to be released on Wednesday. According to a Reuters survey of economists, core consumer prices are expected to rise 0.2% for the month, while overall prices increase by 0.3%.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that the International Energy Agency proposed its largest-ever release of oil reserves. This development contributed to the drop in oil prices.

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Markets are monitoring geopolitical risks while also pricing in President Donald Trump’s signals that tensions could ease. The interplay of these two narratives has led to rapid and sharp movements in energy markets.

Oil Prices Plunge Double-Digits

Oil prices, which had reached their highest levels since 2022 in the previous session, experienced a sharp pullback on Tuesday.

Brent crude futures fell by $14.23 (-14.5%) to $84.73 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped $14.46 (-15.5%) to $80.31 per barrel. Both benchmarks recorded one of the steepest daily declines in recent years.

The drop was largely driven by Trump’s remarks suggesting that the Iran conflict may not last long, reducing expectations of prolonged disruptions in oil supply and quickly unwinding risk premiums in prices.

The easing in energy prices also affected global equities. US stock indices closed higher:

• Dow Jones: +0.74%

• S&P 500: +0.48%

• Nasdaq: +0.65%

Hormuz Strait Mine Allegations

Despite the drop in oil prices, field developments suggest the risk has not disappeared.

According to CBS News, US intelligence has reportedly detected preparatory steps by Iran to deploy mines in the Hormuz Strait.

The Hormuz Strait is one of the most critical channels for global energy trade, with roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passing through. Any military action in the strait could trigger immediate and sharp price swings in energy markets.

Pentagon: 140 US Soldiers Wounded

The military toll of the conflict is becoming clearer.

The Pentagon reported that 140 US soldiers have been wounded since the outbreak of hostilities with Iran, though some sources indicate the number may be approaching 150.

This highlights the intensity of clashes on the ground.

UN Security Council Holds Emergency Meeting

Diplomatic activity has also accelerated due to the risk of a regional crisis.

The United Nations Security Council is reportedly convening an emergency meeting concerning conflicts in Lebanon, with a focus on the potential spread of tensions along the Iran-Israel front.

Market Faces Two Scenarios

Energy markets are currently weighing two potential scenarios:

1. Tensions ease quickly, and oil shipments largely return to normal, which could further reduce risk premiums in prices.

2. Military risks around the Hormuz Strait intensify, and Iran targets oil shipments, potentially triggering a new energy shock.

For now, markets are pricing in a calmer scenario, but even small developments in the US-Iran standoff could rapidly shift oil prices again.

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The market reaction was swift. As geopolitical risk premiums began to ease, oil prices declined, and some investors rotated into crypto assets. However, new statements released just hours later indicated that uncertainty had not fully disappeared.

“The War Is Ending” Message Hits Oil Prices

Trump said that the US military had struck more than 3,000 Iranian targets during the first week of operations, adding that Iran’s military capabilities had been significantly weakened.

“I think the war is very complete, pretty much. If you look at it from a military standpoint, there’s very little left.”

These remarks triggered rapid market pricing. Oil prices fell from a four-year high of $118 to around $85 within hours. The sharp decline in energy markets was interpreted as a signal that geopolitical risk premiums were quickly unwinding.

Still, the situation was far from clear. Later comments on the same day suggested a very different tone.

Safe-Haven Assets Also Move

The uncertainty created by geopolitical tensions did not only affect oil and crypto markets. Precious metals also recorded upward momentum.

In international markets, gold rose 0.46% to $5,168 per ounce. In Türkiye’s domestic market, gram gold traded at 7,317 TL, while quarter gold reached 11,960 TL and Republic gold climbed to 47,701 TL.

The movement in precious metals was not limited to gold. Silver also surged 2.9% to $89.49.

Despite falling oil prices, the rise in gold and silver suggests that investors are not yet fully convinced that geopolitical risks have disappeared.

A Much Harsher Tone Hours Later

Trump later issued a far stronger warning on his social media platform Truth Social.

He said that if Iran attempts to disrupt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the United States would respond with force “twenty times stronger” than previous strikes. Trump also suggested that targets could be hit that would make it nearly impossible for Iran to rebuild its military capacity.

The language in the post drew particular attention:

“Death, Fire, and Fury will reign upon them — but I hope that does not happen.”

Such statements briefly confused markets. Initial comments suggested the conflict was nearing its end, while later remarks implied the war could still continue.

Florida Speech: “We Haven’t Won Enough Yet”

Trump’s speech at a Republican fundraising event in Florida presented a similarly mixed message.

While he stated that the United States had already achieved significant gains, he also indicated that operations could continue until a final victory is secured.

“We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough. We move forward more determined than ever to achieve ultimate victory and end this danger once and for all.”

These remarks reinforced the idea that geopolitical tensions may persist for some time.

Why Did the Crypto Market Rise?

While oil declined, the cryptocurrency market responded positively. Over the past 24 hours, the total crypto market value increased by roughly 3%, with Bitcoin reclaiming the $70,000 level.

Ethereum is currently trading slightly above $2,000.

Augustine Fan, Head of Insights at crypto trading software provider SignalPlus, said markets are cautious about pricing political headlines directly.

According to Fan, investors remain skeptical of headline statements.

“It’s difficult to take these comments at face value. Other cabinet members say the conflict is still in its early stages, and US military assets remain deployed in the region.”

Fan added that in the short term, the crypto market is likely to follow broader risk assets rather than a standalone narrative. The nearly $30 swing in oil prices within 24 hours has been a key driver of macro market sentiment.

The Bigger Question: How Long Will Uncertainty Last?

Andri Fauzan Adziima, Research Lead at crypto exchange Bitrue, pointed to a different scenario.

If Trump’s claim that the war is nearing its end proves accurate, crypto markets could see a strong relief rally. Lower oil prices could ease inflation pressures and boost investor risk appetite.

For now, however, uncertainty remains.

Adziima noted several factors still clouding the outlook:

• Iran’s responses remain aggressive

• Military activity in the region continues

• Diplomatic signals remain mixed

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has already rejected Trump’s claims that the war is nearing its end, stating that Iran will determine how and when the conflict concludes.

For that reason, even if short-term relief rallies appear in markets, it may still be too early to say geopolitical uncertainty has fully disappeared.

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According to Georgieva, if oil prices rise by 10 percent and remain elevated for most of the year, global headline inflation could increase by roughly 40 basis points. This relationship illustrates how closely energy markets are tied to overall price stability across the global economy.

The warning comes at a time when geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are intensifying, raising concerns about supply disruptions and the stability of critical energy routes.

Middle East Tensions Threaten Energy Supply

Recent conflicts in the region have begun to affect energy infrastructure directly. Reports indicate that several important oil and gas facilities have suffered damage, while some operations have experienced temporary shutdowns. These developments have heightened fears about supply interruptions in global energy markets.

At the same time, maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—a vital corridor for global energy shipments—has reportedly dropped by around 90 percent. Any disruption to shipping activity in this area has the potential to impact global energy distribution, making it a significant concern for policymakers and markets alike.

The Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz for Oil

The Strait of Hormuz plays a crucial role in global energy trade. Under normal conditions, roughly one fifth of the world’s oil supply and a substantial portion of global liquefied natural gas shipments pass through this narrow maritime route.

For many Asian economies, the strait represents a particularly critical supply line. Nearly half of Asia’s oil imports travel through this corridor, along with about one quarter of its LNG imports. Japan’s dependence is even more pronounced, with nearly 60 percent of its oil imports and around 11 percent of LNG imports relying on this route.

Because of this concentration of energy flows, disruptions in the region can quickly affect global market sentiment and price stability.

Sharp Surge in Oil Prices

Energy market tensions have already had a visible impact on prices. Oil recently climbed by 16.10 percent in a single day, reaching approximately $108.51 per barrel. Over a broader time frame, the increase has been even more dramatic, with prices rising about 61.74 percent on a monthly basis.

Such rapid price movements often trigger concerns about inflationary pressure and economic slowdown, particularly in energy-dependent economies.

Potential Impact on Global Growth

Higher energy costs do not only affect inflation—they can also influence economic growth. Economic estimates suggest that a sustained 10 percent rise in oil prices could reduce global output by approximately 0.1 to 0.2 percent.

For policymakers and central banks, these developments create a challenging environment. As energy prices fluctuate and geopolitical risks intensify, governments may need to prepare for unexpected scenarios and adapt economic strategies accordingly. Monitoring energy markets will likely remain a key priority in the months ahead.

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Spot gold fell after dropping more than 2% earlier in the session. As of 05:54 GMT+3, the metal was trading at $5,130.94 per ounce, down 0.8% on the day. U.S. gold futures for April delivery slipped 0.4% to $5,138.20.

The U.S. dollar climbed to its highest level in more than three months, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies and limiting demand. At the same time, yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds rose to their highest level in about a month, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold.

Stronger Dollar and Rising Yields Pressure Gold

The strengthening dollar has been one of the main drivers behind the latest move in gold prices. When the U.S. currency gains value, commodities priced in dollars tend to become more expensive for international investors, which can reduce buying interest.

At the same time, higher Treasury yields make interest-bearing assets more attractive relative to precious metals. Since gold does not provide yield, rising bond returns often lead investors to rebalance portfolios away from bullion.

Fed Rate Expectations Shift

Market expectations around U.S. monetary policy have also changed in recent days. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, investors widely expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on March 18.

Interest-rate market pricing shows a notable shift in sentiment. The probability that rates will remain unchanged in June has climbed to above 51%, compared with below 43% just a week earlier.

Because precious metals do not generate income, they generally perform better in low-interest-rate environments. As expectations for near-term rate cuts fade, pressure on gold prices can increase.

Oil Prices Surge on Middle East Tensions

Energy markets moved sharply higher as geopolitical tensions escalated in the Middle East. Concerns that the expanding conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran could disrupt global energy supplies pushed crude prices significantly higher.

Fears of prolonged disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes, have also intensified. Some major Middle Eastern producers have reportedly begun reducing supply amid growing uncertainty.

Oil prices surged roughly 20%, climbing above $110 per barrel during the session. Brent crude futures rose to around $119.50 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reached $119.48.

Analysts at ING noted in a research note that the situation appears to be worsening. According to the bank, production slowdowns have started and several producers are facing storage constraints. Countries such as Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have reportedly begun cutting output.

Iran Leadership Change Adds to Geopolitical Risk

Geopolitical tensions intensified further after Iran appointed Mojtaba Khamenei as the country’s new Supreme Leader, succeeding his father Ali Khamenei.

The leadership change is widely seen as a signal that hardline political control will remain in place. Analysts say the move could add to regional uncertainty at a time when global energy markets are already facing supply concerns.

Other Precious Metals See Volatility

Other precious metals also experienced volatility during the session.

Spot silver, after falling more than 5% earlier in the day, stabilized near $84.42 per ounce. Platinum slipped 0.1% to $2,133.95, while palladium declined 0.9% to around $1,610.

The broader picture across global commodity markets highlights diverging forces. While oil prices surged due to supply concerns and geopolitical risks, the combination of a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields continued to create short-term pressure on precious metals.

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