According to the company’s assessment, although some positive indicators exist in the crypto market, the overall picture does not yet show a strong bullish trend forming.

Market Indicators Sending Mixed Signals

The 10x Research report emphasizes that momentum in the crypto market has a fragile structure. While the resumption of inflows into Bitcoin ETFs is evaluated as a positive development, it is noted that trading volumes do not yet indicate a strong recovery.

The analysis states that spot market trading volume remains at low levels. The weekly average trading volume hovering around $109 billion stands out as an important data point showing that the market has not yet entered a strong expansion phase.

According to experts, without new liquidity inflows, it will be difficult to see a sustainable and strong upward movement in the market.

Derivatives Markets Pricing in Downside Risk for Bitcoin and Ethereum

The report particularly draws attention to the derivatives markets. In these markets, where institutional investors are heavily active, it is indicated that investors are behaving cautiously when it comes to taking risky positions.

According to 10x Research, traders are showing reluctance especially in opening long positions. Instead, strategies that provide protection against downside risk are being preferred more frequently.

The uncertainty created by geopolitical developments is causing many investors to act more cautiously in the market. This situation is seen as one of the factors preventing the formation of a clear bullish trend so far.

Activity on the Ethereum Network Has Weakened

The analysis also shared an important data point regarding the Ethereum network. One of the indicators pointing to weakening transaction activity on Ethereum is the gas fees.

Transaction fees, currently at 0.03 gwei, fall within the lowest 4% percentile when historical data is examined. This situation shows that the number of transactions and user activity on the network are quite low.

According to experts, low gas fees indicate weak demand on the network and that the market is generally in a wait-and-see mode. Therefore, it is evaluated that new macro developments and liquidity flows will be decisive for the direction to become clear in the markets in the short term.

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The post 10x Research Report: Are Bitcoin and ETH Preparing for a Decline? appeared first on Coin Engineer.

What Are Technical Indicators Signaling for Bitcoin?

Despite persistent risk-off headlines in global markets, Bitcoin has notably failed to accelerate to the downside. This deceleration in selling pressure is viewed by some analysts as an early sign that bearish momentum may be fading.

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin recently retested its 20-day moving average near $68,500. At the same time, Bollinger Bands have narrowed significantly, indicating compressed volatility. Historically, such volatility contractions often precede expansion phases, where price breaks out decisively in either direction.

Earlier in the week, Bitcoin briefly traded above $70,000 on Coinbase before retreating toward the $68,400 area. On the downside, the $62,500 level has been tested three separate times and held firm, reinforcing its importance as a key support zone.

Momentum oscillators also reflect early signs of stabilization. Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the stochastic indicator have displayed positive divergences, suggesting weakening bearish momentum. Still, these signals are developing within the context of a broader downtrend.

Tactical Improvement vs. Structural Reversal

Analysts emphasize the distinction between tactical recovery and structural trend reversal. While volatility compression, improving ETF inflows, and the disappearance of the Coinbase premium/discount gap suggest the market is not accelerating into a fresh leg lower, they do not yet confirm a full regime change.

Asset allocation models continue to classify Bitcoin within a bear market framework. As a result, upward price movements are currently interpreted as short-term tactical opportunities rather than the beginning of a sustained bullish phase.

Short Squeeze and Funding Dynamics

Derivatives market positioning has also played a significant role in recent price action. Deeply negative funding rates signaled crowded short positioning, meaning traders holding short contracts were paying longs. When Bitcoin rebounded sharply from around $63,000, it triggered a classic short squeeze, forcing liquidations and temporarily easing selling pressure.

Nevertheless, analysts underline that a durable trend reversal would require stronger structural capital inflows and meaningful macroeconomic catalysts. Until such drivers emerge, the prevailing downtrend from the all-time high remains technically intact, with fragile liquidity conditions and overhead resistance levels reinforcing a cautious market stance.

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The post Analyst: Bitcoin Selling Pressure Eases, but Bear Market Structure Remains appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Weekly Trading Volume Drops by 50%

Data compiled by 10x Research shows that average weekly crypto trading volume has fallen by approximately 50%, declining to around $100 billion. Such a significant contraction signals a notable slowdown in market participation and speculative activity.

The weakness is not limited to smaller altcoins. Bitcoin and Ether, the two largest digital assets by market capitalization, are also experiencing substantial volume declines. Current weekly trading activity in Bitcoin sits roughly 47% below its historical average, while Ether’s volume is approximately 58% below its norm. This broad-based reduction suggests that the market’s core liquidity engines are losing momentum.

“Liquidity Is Gradually Leaving the Market”

Analysts at 10x Research interpret the sharp drop in volume as an indication that the recent recovery attempt may be losing steam. In their view, capital is slowly rotating out of the crypto market, reducing the depth needed to sustain strong price advances.

Low-volume environments tend to amplify fragility. Without solid participation, upward price movements can lack conviction and are more vulnerable to abrupt reversals. As a result, the current backdrop calls for increased caution, particularly for short-term traders relying on breakout scenarios.

Additional Weakness in the Ethereum Network

The report also points to declining on-chain activity within the Ethereum ecosystem. Network fees have fallen to 0.04 gwei, placing them within the lowest 4% of historical readings. Such subdued fee levels typically reflect reduced demand for block space and weaker transactional intensity.

Why the Next Two Weeks Matter

10x Research further notes a growing disconnect between macroeconomic developments and crypto market performance. This divergence may increase uncertainty and complicate short-term forecasting.

The coming one to two weeks could prove decisive. If trading volumes fail to recover, the risk of a deeper correction may rise as liquidity conditions remain thin.

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The post 10x Research Releases Critical Crypto Market Analysis! appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Institutional Flows Signal Caution

One of the most important signals comes from institutional positioning. Recent price declines have been accompanied by continued outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This trend suggests that large investors are not yet rotating back into risk-on mode and remain defensive in their allocations.

At the same time, data from stablecoin issuers points to rising demand for actual U.S. dollars rather than crypto-denominated liquidity. A notable example is the roughly $10 billion in dollar redemptions processed through Circle. When ETF outflows and stablecoin cash demand are viewed together, they paint a picture of institutional capital stepping back rather than preparing for aggressive accumulation.

No Clear “Buy-the-Dip” Behavior Yet

Although market sentiment indicators and some technical metrics are approaching oversold territory, the broader downtrend has not been decisively broken. Investor behavior reinforces this assessment. The kind of sharp, conviction-driven buying that typically appears at major market lows has yet to materialize.

Instead, positioning remains cautious, suggesting that participants are still prioritizing capital preservation over opportunistic entries. This lack of aggressive dip-buying implies that downside volatility could persist in the near term.

Why the $73,000 Level Matters for Bitcoin

For Bitcoin specifically, the $73,000 level stands out as a key area to watch. During 2024, before the U.S. election cycle concluded, this zone acted as a strong support region for nearly five months. Once price moved decisively above it, Bitcoin entered a powerful rally phase.

The current environment, however, looks different. Options market data shows traders reducing leverage and closing positions rather than positioning for an upside breakout. This shift weakens the probability of a strong upward move from this level in the short term.

A Lack of Clear Catalysts

Macro conditions also offer little immediate support. Federal Reserve policy, global liquidity trends, and ETF flows are not currently aligned in a way that would provide a strong bullish trigger. Without a clear catalyst, markets often resolve uncertainty through one final “washout” phase that forces weak hands to exit.

While this does not guarantee further downside, it suggests that patience may still be required before a durable recovery takes hold.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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The post 10x Research: A “Shakeout” May Be Coming to Bitcoin! appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Investor Frenzy Inflates Share Price

Metaplanet, Asia’s largest Bitcoin treasury holder, is witnessing an extraordinary surge in its stock value. According to a May 27 report by 10x Research, investors are paying as if BTC is valued at $596,154—over five times its actual market price of around $109,499. This premium highlights how retail investors may be drastically overpaying for indirect Bitcoin exposure.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

The report warns that those ignoring a firm’s Net Asset Value (NAV) might be walking into overvalued positions with limited upside. Another prominent example is MicroStrategy, whose shares suggest an implied Bitcoin price of $174,100. These premiums, while boosting corporate valuations, may ultimately dilute value for incoming shareholders.

Corporate Bitcoin Holdings Expand

Metaplanet currently holds more than 7,800 BTC, worth over $855 million, representing 0.037% of the total supply. After a recent purchase of 1,004 BTC on May 19, the firm is targeting a total of 21,000 Bitcoin by 2026. This aggressive accumulation strategy is applauded by some for advancing adoption but raises questions as retail investors are pushed into paying steep premiums rather than buying BTC directly.

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The post Metaplanet’s Bitcoin Price Surges to 5x the Market Rate appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Decline Signals in Bitcoin and Ethereum

Recent sharp declines in the markets have increased investors’ concerns, while analysis platform 10X Research highlighted a significant pattern in Bitcoin’s price movements.

According to analysts, Bitcoin is currently following a “Diamond Top” formation, which indicates that prices tend to drop after a growth phase. This pattern suggests that BTC may decline further and lose some of the gains it made since the November rally.

While major altcoins also suffered losses, the biggest drop was seen in Ethereum (ETH). Analysts noted that despite Eric Trump’s support for ETH, the decline was mainly driven by options gamma hedging and futures liquidations, which can cause significant price fluctuations.

Bitcoin Recovers, Why Is Ethereum Still Under Pressure?

According to analysts, after the recent selling wave, Bitcoin showed a partial recovery, but the same did not happen for Ethereum:

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

“Bitcoin exhibited a partial recovery, but this did not happen for Ethereum. Large ETH sell-offs failed to trigger the expected strong rebounds, indicating that ETH prices may still be under pressure.”

Analysts emphasized that the combination of ongoing economic uncertainty and weak technical indicators suggests that Bitcoin and altcoins could face further price declines in the short term. Investors are advised to act cautiously at this stage.

When Will the Altcoin Rally Begin?

10X Research predicts that Bitcoin and altcoins may experience further declines in the near term, while a similar forecast was made by popular analyst Rekt Capital.

Rekt Capital analyzed key trends in Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) and argued that the altcoin season will begin after Bitcoin Dominance reaches its 71% peak.

The analyst pointed out that historically, Bitcoin Dominance has moved within the 58-71% macro range, and each time it reached the 71% resistance level, the altcoin market saw major activity. He also suggested that during this period, altcoins could experience a 5-10% pullback

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The post Critical Level for Bitcoin Domination! When Will the Rally Start? appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Rising Treasury Yields Prompt Portfolio Shift

Thielen attributes his bearish stance to rising Treasury yields, a sign of investor concerns about inflation.

“Our growing concern is that risk assets (stocks and crypto) are teetering on the edge of a significant price correction,” Thielen stated in a client note. “The primary trigger is the unexpected and persistent inflation. With the bond market now projecting less than three cuts and 10-year Treasury Yields surpassing 4.50%, we may have arrived at a crucial tipping point for risk assets.”

Selling Tech Stocks, Holding Select Crypto

Thielen’s bearish outlook led him to sell all his tech stocks and maintain only a few “high-conviction” cryptocurrencies in his portfolio.

Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have dwindled significantly this year. Initially priced in at six cuts, traders now anticipate less than three due to persistent inflation and a strong U.S. labor market and economy.

This “hawkish repricing” by the Federal Reserve has driven up 10-year Treasury yields to 4.61% – the highest since November 2023. This rise in risk-free rates makes high-risk assets like tech stocks and cryptocurrencies less attractive to investors.

Bitcoin Rally Fueled by Rate Cut Expectations Now Fizzles

“Most of this 2023/2024 bitcoin rally is driven by expectations that interest rates would be cut, and this narrative is being seriously challenged now,” noted Thielen. He further pointed out the decline in inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds).

The approval of nearly a dozen spot Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC in January allowed investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly owning and storing the cryptocurrency. While these vehicles attracted nearly $12 billion in investments, the flow has stalled this month after fueling the earlier Bitcoin price surge.

Bitcoin ETF Hype Wanes, Net Inflows Dry Up

The 5-day average net inflows into spot ETFs have dropped to zero. Thielen suggests that “after an initial novelty hype, ETF flows tend to run out unless prices continue increasing—which they have not done since early March. With two—to 17% drawdowns, those investors might stay on the sidelines.”

Post-Halving Correction on the Horizon?

Some analysts predict a further correction after the hype surrounding the upcoming Bitcoin halving event on April 20th fades. This pre-programmed event will cut the block reward for miners in half, effectively reducing the pace of new Bitcoin entering circulation.

Despite the recent bearish sentiment, Bitcoin is still up 42% year-to-date, trading around $62,600. The broader crypto market index, CoinDesk 20, also remains positive for the year, currently at 2119 points.

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