Leading the pace with an estimated 50% chance of winning and a bet exceeding $127 million, U.S. Vice President and Democratic presidential contender Kamala Harris follows. At 49% winning chances and an almost $144 million bet, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump finishes in second. Originally leading Harris in the Polymarket bet, Trump had been leading Harris backwards on Aug. 12 when the winner’s prediction market was $572 million.

This Might Interest You: Kamala Harris Tied with Trump on Polymarket After Debate

Beyond the contenders, Polymarket prediction markets concentrate on various facets of the 2024 presidential contest, including the possibility of Trump uttering “crypto” or other phrases in the discussion between him and Harris. To be sure, neither of the candidates brought up cryptocurrencies at the Sept. 10 Philadelphia debate.

Polymarket’s meteoric rise in the last four months has mostly been driven by the 2024 presidential contest. According to The Block’s Data Dashboard, August saw Polymarket’s highest-ever number of active traders and monthly volume—63,6200 and $472.84 million, respectively. As of Sept. 13, the platform’s total volume comes out to be $1.75 billion.

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A poll conducted by Fairleigh Dickinson University on Aug. 30 of 801 US voters who claimed they possessed digital assets revealed that these individuals were more inclined to support Trump over Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in November. According to the national poll taken between Aug. 17 and Aug. 20, Trump led Harris by 12 points among registered voters who own cryptocurrencies, while Harris led by 12 points among non-crypto holders.

“Trump has been interacting with the crypto community, and it seems to have paid off,” Fairleigh Dickinson professor Dan Cassino said. “I don’t think people realize exactly how common crypto ownership is, even if it would be simple to discount them as negligible.”

As the election draws near, the poll did not really probe respondents regarding the policies of the presidential contenders on cryptocurrencies or blockchain, which has been evolving. From declaring Bitcoin a “scam” in 2021 to having his campaign defend miners and accept crypto donations in 2024, Trump has openly changed his stance.

Vice President Harris launched her campaign on July 21 and has mainly stayed quiet on digital matters. A Harris staffer allegedly indicated during the Democratic National Convention that the presidential contender will “support policies” for the expansion of the crypto sector.

The poll also took place before Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s announcement of suspending his campaign and promising support for Trump in 2024. Given the Independent candidate appears to gain support from many, including those leaning Democrat or Republican, it is uncertain whether single-issue crypto voters supporting RFK Jr. will automatically migrate to Trump.

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Biden’s campaign team strategy drastically runs counter to the crypto-related policies released by the White House since he took office. This action seems to be in response to the attention Trump has received since switching to a pro-crypto stance.

Those involved with the conversations stated that the crypto strategy was just in its exploratory stage. This implies that although a final decision has not yet been made, it would significantly deviate from his past achievements.

Political experts have noted that the action of the Biden campaign team indicates that his camp was seeking to show support for the crypto sector. Biden is allegedly “looking for ways to show that they’re not the enemy and to demonstrate support for the crypto industry.” An unidentified source said.

Furthermore, the campaign team could look for money by using the pool of crypto contributors. Through PACs, pro-crypto donors—including individuals and businesses—have already contributed millions of dollars; they want to use the money to support the pro-crypto candidates chosen.

Biden’s team’s recent gestures to the crypto sector suggest that it could be more challenging for the president to garner support from the sector. This is a result of his apparently anti-crypto posture, which includes the recent veto of a bipartisan vote to eliminate SAB 121, an SEC directive seen to damage the sector.

Still, Trump’s strong pro-crypto remarks already have an impact since many players think he is the ideal fit for the sector. Many powerful people, including Alex Bergeron of Bitcoin Magazine, Brian Morgenstern of Riot Blockchain, and Messari CEO Ryan Selkis, have voiced opinions that the Trump government may be fantastic for Bitcoin and the crypto sector.

Others have advised caution, though. Lola L33tz, a bitcoin analyst, pointed out that politicians are notorious for making promises during elections they will not be able to keep. Most of the stakeholders stay objective and think the business should likewise be apolitical.

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According to Reuters, attendees of a Thursday night fundraiser hosted at the San Francisco mansion of software entrepreneur and investor David Sacks raised $12 million. Co-hosting the event was Social Capital CEO Chamath Palihapitiya.

Trump’s look prepares his embrace of cryptocurrencies for the run-up to the 2024 presidential contest. According to Reuters, well-known crypto leaders, including Gemini founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, also made an appearance at the fundraiser.

Related: Elon Musk Refutes Crypto Talks with Donald Trump

Humanitarian Instruments Former Trump ambassador to Austria Trevor Traina, chief business officer, told Reuters Trump “said he would be the crypto president” at the fundraiser. Palantir Technologies adviser Jacob Helberg told the newspaper that Trump “made clear that the Biden-Gensler crusade against crypto will grind to a halt within one hour of a second Trump administration.”

Republican National Committeewoman Harmeet Dhillon claimed former president gave no specifics on his bitcoin policy. Still, crypto enthusiasts are turning to him for the upcoming election.

Intercom CEO Eoghan McCabe noted in an X post, “I spoke with ~6 people there, none labelled as Republican. In the past, all either voted or gave Democrat. These days, they support this guy for his ideas on war, immigration, crypto, and more. This election serves as a vote on such concerns.”

Late May saw Trump declare support for cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, Dogecoin, and Shiba Inu, as approved donations for his campaign.

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“We, together with others in the sector, have helped fund Fairshake SuperPAC to help elect pro-crypto candidates and defend the rights of our customers,” the crypto exchange added.

Based on a Monday blog post, Coinbase wants regulatory clarification for cryptocurrencies. Coinbase sees the ideal strategy as to “elect pro-crypto candidates on both sides of the aisle and vote anti-crypto candidates out of office,” given what they consider the slow and bipartisan character of U.S. politics.

Related: Bitcoin’s Growing Influence in U.S. Elections

The company underlined, however, that support for candidates will not help one party over another since crypto ownership is divided rather fairly along party lines.

Coinbase noted that it will assist the grassroots movement Standwithcrypto.org, which already has around a million signatures and names important races and candidates in favor of pro-crypto legislation. Fairshake, being a superPAC, runs advertising for their own advantage rather than actively supporting political politicians. Fairshake, for one noteworthy instance, ran an advertisement criticizing California Senate candidate Katie Porter.

The donation comes just one week following the $25 million donations made by Ripple and crypto venture firm a16z to the PAC, therefore augmenting the war chest of the company. Based on data from Open Secrets, Fairshake is among the best-funded superPACs in the nation, having lately pulled in about $160 million in donations.

With former U.S. President Donald Trump pledging to defend self-custody and taking campaign donations in crypto for his re-election campaign, cryptocurrencies have become a major topic of debate in this year’s presidential contest. Concurrently, the Biden campaign has started consulting crypto sector participants for direction on the crypto community and policy choices.

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The Rise of the Crypto Voter

The increasing prominence of the crypto voter aligns with the exponential growth of cryptocurrency as an asset class. Following the 2020 presidential election, a surge in Bitcoin’s value catalyzed widespread retail adoption, creating a new class of millionaires and amplifying the influence of crypto voters.

Presently, one in five Americans possesses digital assets, totaling 52 million individuals. Remarkably, this demographic exhibits political diversity, with 22% identifying as Democrats, 18% as Republicans, and 22% as Independents. Moreover, 60% belong to Gen Z or Millennials, and 41% are minorities, reflecting a young, diverse, and bipartisan constituency.

Courting the Crypto Vote: Key to the White House?

Swing states, pivotal in determining electoral outcomes, are witnessing a burgeoning interest in crypto. Morning Consult polls conducted in battleground states like New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania reveal that approximately 18% of voters own digital assets. More crucially, 55% of these crypto holders express a reluctance to support candidates who oppose crypto values, emphasizing a desire for economic fairness and a decentralized, web3 economy.

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With swing states often decided by narrow margins, the potential impact of the crypto vote cannot be overstated. In the 2020 election, margins as slim as 82,000 votes in Pennsylvania and 34,000 votes in Nevada determined outcomes. Given the sizable crypto constituency, candidates adopting pro-crypto stances could significantly alter electoral dynamics.

Political candidates, recognizing the importance of the crypto vote, are urged to embrace this passionate community. Faryar Shirzad, Coinbase’s Head of Policy, underscores the necessity of engaging with millions of Americans participating in the crypto economy.

Biden, Bitcoin, and Young Voters (2024 US Presidential Election)

Despite the political advantages of embracing cryptocurrency, frontrunners like Joe Biden and Donald Trump have largely sidestepped the issue. President Biden’s policies, perceived as hostile towards digital assets, risk alienating crypto holders. Conversely, Trump’s skepticism towards crypto appears to be softening, evidenced by his experimentation with NFTs and previous cryptocurrency ownership.

Trump’s Big Opportunity

By adopting pro-crypto positions, Trump could potentially attract pro-crypto Democrats and Independents, challenging Biden’s support base. With swing states like New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania in play, Trump’s pivot towards crypto could alter electoral outcomes, especially considering his narrow losses in these states in 2020.

In conclusion, the emergence of the crypto vote as a significant electoral force underscores the need for political candidates to address the concerns and aspirations of this burgeoning demographic. As the 2024 election approaches, the role of cryptocurrency in shaping American politics is poised to become increasingly pivotal.

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