The Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle and Historical Volatility

Back emphasizes that volatility has always been embedded in Bitcoin’s market structure. Previous four-year cycles have featured similar periods of price weakness at comparable stages. In his view, the roughly 26% decline over the past year reflects a cyclical correction, not a structural failure.

He suggests that some market participants may be positioning based on these well-known historical rhythms rather than reacting strictly to macroeconomic headlines. Expectations for a potential rebound later in the year, he notes, are partly shaped by these recurring patterns.

Institutional Milestones, But No Decoupling

A more crypto-friendly policy backdrop in the United States and long-awaited clarity around spot Bitcoin ETFs were widely expected to usher in a new phase of institutional participation. Many investors believed these developments would dampen volatility and help Bitcoin decouple from broader macro uncertainty.

In practice, however, Bitcoin has at times traded in line with risk assets. During the same period, gold reached fresh highs and silver climbed to multi-year peaks, attracting capital seeking protection against inflation and geopolitical tension. Rather than immediately assuming the role of a dominant hedge, Bitcoin has continued to display sensitivity to broader market sentiment.

ETF Holders vs. Retail Traders

Back also points to structural differences among investor types. ETF holders, he argues, tend to be more “sticky” compared to retail traders active on crypto exchanges. Retail participants often deploy substantial capital during rallies, leaving limited liquidity to accumulate during downturns. Institutional investors, by contrast, can rebalance portfolios more systematically.

Even so, Back believes institutional capital remains in its early stages of engagement. In his assessment, the largest pools of capital have not yet fully entered the space, despite improved regulatory conditions.

Measuring Bitcoin Against Gold

When evaluating Bitcoin’s long-term potential, Back uses gold’s total market capitalization as a reference point. He notes that Bitcoin remains approximately 10 to 15 times smaller than gold, implying significant room for expansion if it continues to gain share as a store of value.

According to Back, rapid adoption inherently brings volatility. As participation broadens across institutions, corporations, and potentially sovereign entities, price swings may moderate. However, he does not expect volatility to disappear entirely. In his view, it is not a contradiction of Bitcoin’s thesis but a natural feature of an asset still progressing along its adoption curve.

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This investment, supported by Bitcoin pioneer Adam Back, positions FUTURE as an institutional bridge between Bitcoin and global capital, further strengthening Switzerland’s leadership in the digital asset ecosystem.

FUTURE Expands Its Bitcoin-Focused Corporate Treasury Model

Based in Zurich, Future Holdings AG will use the funds to expand its balance sheet–driven Bitcoin treasury model. The company aims to provide institutional investors with secure, compliant, and strategic access to Bitcoin.

FUTURE’s executive team includes several industry heavyweights:

• Richard Byworth – Chairman of Syz Capital
• Sebastien Hess – Fintech and Bitcoin entrepreneur, CEO of FUTURE
• Adam Back – Creator of Hashcash and pioneer of the Proof-of-Work mechanism behind Bitcoin
• Marc Syz and Julian Liniger – Experienced leaders in European finance

This leadership structure gives FUTURE a strong foundation in both institutional credibility and technological expertise.

“We Aim to Be at the Heart of Europe’s Bitcoin Treasury Ecosystem”

Richard Byworth, Chairman of Future Holdings, described the investment as a strategic milestone for Europe’s financial markets:

“We are strategically positioned in one of Europe’s strongest financial hubs, supported by near-zero interest rates and robust investor confidence. With our experienced Bitcoin-native team, we’re seizing the opportunity to meet the growing institutional demand for Bitcoin solutions in Europe.”

Byworth also emphasized that Switzerland’s financial stability and regulatory-friendly environment make it an ideal foundation for Bitcoin treasury firms.

FUTURE’s Mission: Bridging Bitcoin and Traditional Finance

FUTURE’s core vision is to build a trusted bridge between Bitcoin and traditional finance (TradFi). The company aims to give global institutional investors transparent, auditable, and secure access to Bitcoin.

FUTURE’s services include:

• Institutional Bitcoin treasury management
• Market analysis and strategic consulting
• Secure digital asset infrastructure
• Corporate training and regulatory advisory

Analysis

The 28 million CHF funding round marks a new milestone for Bitcoin-focused institutional finance in Europe. With support from pioneers like Adam Back, FUTURE seeks to combine Switzerland’s traditional financial strength with the innovation of Bitcoin economics.

This development could increase institutional interest in Bitcoin across Europe and drive further growth in the region’s digital asset ecosystem — positioning Switzerland as a key hub for Bitcoin treasury and institutional adoption.

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“A Quantum Breakthrough Could Happen in Five Years”

Yakovenko estimated that there’s a 50% chance of a major leap in quantum computing power within the next five years. Drawing parallels to the rapid acceleration of artificial intelligence, he argued that technological progress may come much faster than most expect.

“Bitcoin should migrate to a quantum-resistant signature scheme,” he urged, noting that waiting too long could leave the network vulnerable at a critical time.

Why the Quantum Threat Matters

Bitcoin’s security is built on the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA). This cryptographic method relies on the difficulty of solving the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem — something classical computers cannot do efficiently.

Quantum computers, however, are theoretically capable of breaking this system, undermining the foundation of wallet security and transaction validation.

This concern isn’t exclusive to Yakovenko. Earlier this year, Naoris Protocol founder David Carvalho warned that advanced quantum machines might crack Bitcoin’s current encryption in less than five years.

The Challenge of Making Bitcoin Quantum-Resistant

In theory, Bitcoin could adopt quantum-resistant cryptography. But doing so would require a hard fork, one of the most contentious and disruptive types of upgrades in blockchain systems.

Given Bitcoin’s conservative culture and the community’s hesitancy toward drastic protocol changes, implementing such a transition would be politically and technically complex.

Divided Opinions in the Bitcoin Community

While Yakovenko and others push for urgency, not everyone in the Bitcoin ecosystem agrees.

• Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, believes existing quantum computers don’t currently threaten Bitcoin, though he admits they could in the long run. In his view, it would likely take at least two decades before quantum machines reach a level where they endanger the network.

• Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, takes a similar stance. He acknowledges the risk but argues it’s still far in the future: “This is a real risk, but at least a decade away. Many other systems will fail before Bitcoin does.”

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25,000 BTC from Founders, 5,021 BTC from Early Investors

BSTR’s treasury currently consists of 25,000 BTC from the founders and 5,021 BTC from early investors. This structure clearly demonstrates the company’s confidence in Bitcoin. By putting their own BTC on the line, the founders are sending a strong message to Wall Street:

“We are here for the long term.”

Billion-Dollar New Capital Target

The company plans to raise up to $1.5 billion in new capital during its public offering. This funding will be carried out through three main instruments:

• Common shares worth $400 million
• Convertible bonds of up to $750 million
• Convertible preferred shares of up to $350 million

In this way, BSTR will support its growth not only through Bitcoin but also with fiat financing.

Challenge to MARA

As of today, the largest institutional BTC holders include MicroStrategy (MSTR) with ~629,000 BTC and Marathon Digital (MARA) with ~50,600 BTC.

BSTR’s plan to exceed 50,000 BTC positions it as a direct competitor to MARA, potentially becoming the world’s second-largest institutional Bitcoin holder after MicroStrategy.

According to Adam Back, BSTR goes beyond the classic HODL approach.

The goal is not just to hold BTC but to accumulate it through active treasury management. Back summarizes this approach:

“We are not chasing DeFi yields, nor taking uncontrolled risks. This strategy is built on liquidity, security, and scale.”

Bridging Wall Street and Bitcoin

BSTR’s plan represents a historic milestone not only for institutional investors but also for the Bitcoin community. For the first time, fiat financing and BTC-denominated PIPE (private investment in public equity) are being implemented simultaneously.

This unites Wall Street’s traditional capital with the direct contribution of the Bitcoin community under one roof.

The leadership team describes the process as follows:

“Instead of going to Wall Street to raise fiat, we sat at the table with 25,000 Bitcoin. Now, we are bringing Bitcoin to Wall Street.”

Bitcoin Standard Treasury is not just planning a public offering; it is building a historic bridge between Wall Street and the Bitcoin ecosystem. If it reaches its targeted 50,000 BTC, this move could mark a new milestone in Bitcoin’s institutional adoption.

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Sweden-based publicly traded health technology company H100 made a remarkable investment decision. The company purchased 4.39 Bitcoin for 5 million Norwegian kroner. Thus, it became the first publicly traded company in Sweden to add BTC to its balance sheet. 

This investment led to a nearly 40% increase in the company’s stock price. The purchase was made as part of H100’s “Bitcoin Treasury Strategy.” The goal is to convert cash reserves into a stronger, long-term asset like Bitcoin. 

CEO Sander Andersen said, “H100’s addition to the Bitcoin Treasury Strategy follows the growing number of technology-focused growth companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets.” 

“And I believe the values of individual sovereignty, which are quite common in the Bitcoin community, align with and appeal to the customers and communities we are building the H100 platform for,” he added. 

A Financial Vision Strengthened by Bitcoin Investment 

H100 did not stop with this investment. The company announced it may acquire more Bitcoin in the future. To this end, it signed a letter of intent with an undisclosed investor for a 10 million SEK credit facility. The funds will be used for general purposes and potential BTC purchases. 

Additionally, led by Blockstream CEO Adam Back, an additional 21 million SEK in funding was secured. Moreover, this investment reflects H100’s confidence in digital assets. H100 did not stop with this investment. The company announced it may acquire more Bitcoin in the future. With the newly raised funds, it plans to purchase approximately 20.18 more Bitcoin. 

21,000,000 SEK has been raised in a convertible round led by the legendary @adam3us

Accelerating our Bitcoin treasury strategy and strengthening our focus on sovereign health — let’s build! pic.twitter.com/SrpbKM2TID

— H100 (@H100Group) May 25, 2025

The company continues its core operations in health technology development. H100 provides solutions to healthcare and longevity service providers through AI-based automation systems and digital platforms. 

According to BitcoinTreasuries.net, more than 109 publicly traded companies worldwide hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets. H100 became the first Swedish company to join this group. Companies first adopted Bitcoin as a corporate asset in the U.S. with a strategy led by Michael Saylor. This approach began with MicroStrategy adding BTC to its balance sheet. Subsequently, companies spread this approach to Latin America and Europe, making it widespread globally. Particularly, organizations in technology and finance have actively started using Bitcoin as a reserve asset. 

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Saifedean Ammous Throws Support Behind Spam-Fighting Developer

Economist and author of The Bitcoin Standard, Saifedean Ammous, weighed in on the ongoing spam debate by offering to fund a developer dedicated to making Bitcoin spamming more difficult and expensive. “I’d throw in a few sats,” he wrote, signaling his willingness to contribute financially to efforts aimed at maintaining the network’s integrity.

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The comment came in response to a proposal by pseudonymous developer GrassFedBitcoin, who called for Bitcoin Core to adopt pull request #28408. This would allow node operators to filter out inscription-based spam more efficiently. According to GrassFedBitcoin, the lack of filtering tools contributes to unnecessary blockchain bloat and weakens Bitcoin’s function as a monetary protocol.

“Fighting Spam Is Not Censorship”

Ammous compared the issue to email spam—an arms race societies continue to fight without abandoning email altogether. He emphasized that rejecting spam transactions isn’t censorship, since node operators already reject invalid ones. His stance was clear: filtering inscriptions is not about control, it’s about protecting the network.

However, Blockstream CEO Adam Back pushed back, describing spam filtering as an endless technical war. He noted that spam data structures can be modified infinitely, requiring ever-evolving countermeasures. Yet even Back didn’t dispute the need to address the issue at some level.

Is Bitcoin’s Future at Risk?

The debate comes amid growing concerns that Bitcoin’s average block size could soar. A report by Mempool Research suggests inscription usage could push the average block to 4 MB—far above the current 1.5 MB—potentially leading to congestion and skyrocketing fees.

Ammous’s solution goes beyond policy: he suggests deprecating spam tools and even hiring outside coders to overwhelm systems designed to abuse the network. This marks a shift from ideological debate to direct action.

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Metaplanet’s Rapid Rise in Bitcoin Investment 

Metaplanet is pursuing an aggressive path in Bitcoin accumulation. Adam Back notes that the company is growing 3.8 times faster than MicroStrategy in terms of mNAV (market Net Asset Value). The company achieved a 100% BTC return in three months. Its current mNAV value stands at 3.3x. According to Back, at this pace, the mNAV could reach 8.3x, potentially driving the stock price from 533 ¥ to 1,340 ¥. 

Additionally, company raised $25 million for its latest purchases. The company views Bitcoin as its core treasury asset. The Japan-based firm ranks 11th among Asia’s largest Bitcoin holders, managing a portfolio of 5,555 BTC worth $481.5 million. 

MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Moves 

On the other hand, MicroStrategy leads in Bitcoin investments. The company holds 555,450 BTC, making it the world’s largest institutional Bitcoin holder. It recently spent $180 million to acquire 1,895 BTC. Additionally, CEO Phong Le is developing a standard model to help companies add Bitcoin to their balance sheets. This model will be released soon. 

However, Adam Back points out that MicroStrategy’s mNAV growth took 19 months, a slower pace compared to Metaplanet. MicroStrategy’s mNAV value is at 2.16x. 

comparing @Strategy is about 19 months to cover it's 2.16x mNAV. crudely MSTR cover / metaplanet, shows metaplanet 3.8x faster. if you use that to normalise mNAV heat, then metaplanet could be at 2.16 x 3.8 = 8.3x mNAV up from 3.3 mNAV, and if price transfers ¥1340 normalized.

— Adam Back (@adam3us) May 10, 2025

Bitcoin maintains a strong stance in the market. It is currently trading at $103,944, with a 0.18% increase. Analysts predict the bull rally will continue. Companies like Metaplanet and MicroStrategy are boosting institutional adoption, supporting Bitcoin’s value. 

The company’s innovative approach is attracting investor attention. Metaplanet aims to reach 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025. MicroStrategy continues its institutional leadership. Both companies reflect confidence in Bitcoin’s future. 

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Institutions and governments worldwide are beginning to recognize the unique monetary properties of Bitcoin (BTC). On April 26, Back shared the following post on X:

“MSTR and other treasury companies are arbitraging the dislocation between Bitcoin’s future and today’s fiat world. This is a sustainable and scalable $100-200 trillion trade.”

Hyperbitcoinization refers to the theoretical future where Bitcoin becomes the dominant global currency, replacing fiat due to inflation and a growing distrust in traditional financial systems.

Bitcoin’s Price Outpacing Inflation

Back emphasizes that Bitcoin’s price consistently outpaces inflation and interest rates over four-year periods, fueling global hyperbitcoinization:

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“Some believe treasury strategy is a temporary glitch. I say no — it is a logical and sustainable arbitrage. But not forever; the main driver is Bitcoin price outperforming interest and inflation every four years.”

Nearly two months ago, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order to create a national Bitcoin reserve using BTC forfeited in criminal cases. This has further boosted Bitcoin’s recognition at the governmental level.

Global Firms Continue Accumulating Bitcoin!

The Bitcoin accumulation trend is not limited to the United States. Strategy, currently the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, has reportedly generated over $5.1 billion in profit from its Bitcoin treasury since early 2025, according to co-founder Michael Saylor.

Meanwhile, Japanese investment firm Metaplanet, often referred to as “Asia’s MicroStrategy,” surpassed 5,000 BTC holdings as of April 24. The company aims to acquire 21,000 BTC by 2026.

Confidence among U.S. financial institutions is also increasing. The Federal Reserve recently withdrew its 2022 guidance discouraging banks from dealing with cryptocurrencies. Michael Saylor commented:

“Banks are now free to start supporting Bitcoin.”

Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev told Cointelegraph that banks would now be supervised through normal processes, marking a more open regulatory environment for digital asset integration.

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Quantum Threat Could Force Satoshi’s Hand

Speaking at the “Satoshi Spritz” event in Turin on April 18, Back explained that future quantum computers may break current cryptographic protections. As a result, Bitcoin holders would have to move their assets to quantum-resistant addresses.

If Satoshi’s coins remain in old, vulnerable addresses, they could be at risk. This might compel Nakamoto to move them to preserve their security:

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“If quantum computers are available, the network must choose: let coins be stolen or deprecate old signatures. Likely, the network lets them be stolen — forcing Satoshi to act.”

Timeline: Possibly Within 20 Years

Back clarified that current quantum computers pose no credible threat to Bitcoin yet. However, he anticipates the technology could reach that level within 20 years.

Will We Know If Satoshi Moves?

Whether or not such a move confirms Satoshi is alive may depend on future privacy upgrades. Some technologies under research could maintain privacy even as users transition to quantum-safe addresses.

An anonymous early Bitcoin miner disagreed with Back’s theory, saying:

“Even if he’s alive, I doubt he would move the coins. He’s always let the community lead.”

Is a Quantum-Resistant Bitcoin Feasible?

Back noted that most quantum-proof signatures are either unproven or data-heavy. He pointed to Lamport signatures as a reliable but bulky option.

He proposed a Taproot-based upgrade, where addresses could switch to quantum-resistant signatures only when needed, balancing efficiency and security.

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“Bitcoin is like gold — a scarce asset — but it’s also undergoing an adoption curve,” Back stated, despite a 30% correction from its all-time high above $109,000.

Inflation May Stay at 10–15% for a Decade

Back projected that inflation could remain at 10% to 15% for the next ten years, which he said is a level of investment return difficult to match with stocks or rental properties.

“Eventually, printed money flows into hard assets. Over time, they’ll all go up — especially scarce and physical assets like housing or Bitcoin,” he explained.

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While the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland projects a 2.18% average annual inflation over the next decade, the University of Michigan reports that consumer expectations are significantly higher — around 5% for next year and 4.1% over the next five years.

Politics, ETFs Fueling Bitcoin’s Momentum!

Beyond economics, Back highlighted how recent spot Bitcoin ETF approvals and a more crypto-friendly Trump administration are also boosting Bitcoin adoption.

“Trump’s presidency has begun removing anti-crypto regulations like Operation Chokepoint 2.0. That’s creating opportunities for retail investors,” he said.

On March 7, Trump signed an executive order to establish a Bitcoin reserve seeded with coins seized in criminal investigations — a move hailed by many as a significant step toward integrating Bitcoin into the mainstream financial system.

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