Global Uncertainty Reshapes Portfolio Thinking

In its latest research note, Brazil Itaú Asset highlights an increasingly complex global environment. Rising geopolitical tensions, shifting monetary policies, and persistent currency risks are challenging traditional portfolio structures. Against this backdrop, alternative assets are gaining relevance.

Renato Eid, Strategy Director at Itaú Asset, describes Bitcoin as a complementary investment rather than a replacement for conventional assets. He emphasizes that Bitcoin operates under a different set of dynamics compared to fixed-income instruments, equities, or domestic markets. Its decentralized and global nature, Eid argues, gives it the potential to function as a hedge against currency-related risks.

Volatility Does Not Eliminate Strategic Value

Bitcoin’s recent price history has been anything but stable. The asset entered 2025 near ninety-five thousand dollars, declined toward eighty thousand dollars amid trade-related uncertainty, then surged to an all-time high of one hundred twenty-five thousand dollars before stabilizing again around previous levels.

Despite these sharp fluctuations, Itaú Asset maintains that volatility alone should not disqualify Bitcoin from long-term portfolios. The bank stresses that the objective is not short-term price appreciation, but the structural benefits Bitcoin can provide when held in small, controlled proportions. Low correlation with traditional asset classes remains central to this argument.

Currency Effects and the Brazil Perspective

The report also notes that Brazilian investors have experienced Bitcoin’s volatility more intensely than many global peers. The Brazilian real appreciated by roughly fifteen percent over the past year, amplifying local currency losses for Bitcoin holders. Even so, Eid points to internal data showing that BITI11, Itaú’s locally listed Bitcoin ETF, has demonstrated low correlation with other major asset classes.

This characteristic, he explains, supports the case for modest Bitcoin exposure as a way to balance portfolio risks that traditional instruments may fail to address.

Institutional Commitment to Digital Assets

Itaú Asset’s recommendation aligns with its broader strategic move into digital assets. In September, the firm established a dedicated crypto-focused division led by former Hashdex executive João Marco Braga da Cunha. Beyond its existing Bitcoin ETF and crypto-linked retirement products, Itaú plans to expand into a wider range of offerings, including derivatives, staking strategies, and structured products.

Rather than framing Bitcoin as a speculative gamble, Itaú positions it as a disciplined portfolio component with specific diversification benefits. This measured approach reflects a broader shift within traditional banking toward structured and institutional engagement with digital assets.

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When a project has a well-designed tokenomics system, it is more likely to succeed compared to those that don’t. This is because a good tokenomics system helps build an ecosystem around the token. When new investors see positive results and research the project, they become interested and demand for the token increases. As a result, the token price goes up, which benefits the investor.

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Tokenomics provides detailed information about a project. It tells you how many tokens are allocated to the market, how much the project team will receive, and when/how the tokens will be unlocked.

By reducing the supply of a token, the price can be supported and pushed higher. This happens because when there are fewer tokens available in circulation, they become more valuable. Token burning is an important aspect of tokenomics that can help achieve this. Tokenomics also reveals information about token distribution, lock times, and areas where the token can be used. When these details are made public in advance, it shows that the project has good-quality and forward-looking plans.

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