Can Altcoins Recover October’s Losses?

By the end of October, the Fear and Greed Index had fallen to 29, reflecting sustained fear across the crypto market. Since the mass liquidation event on October 11, investors have remained cautious. Still, many altcoins have managed to hold steady, avoiding new lower lows and consolidating within defined price ranges.

According to Altcoin Vector, which tracks the performance of non-top-10 altcoins against Bitcoin through the OTHERS/BTC chart, the ratio fell sharply from above 0.14 in September to below 0.12 in October. However, recent data shows the chart entering a “stabilization” phase, signaling that downward momentum may be fading as prices begin to move sideways within a narrow band.

Altcoin Vector noted, “If this stabilization zone holds as support, short-term relief rallies could occur. It might not mark the start of a full altcoin season, but it could ease downside pressure and spark temporary gains.”

Signs Pointing Toward a November Altcoin Season

Macro analyst and MN Fund founder Michaël van de Poppe describes the OTHERS/BTC chart as “one of the most valuable indicators in the current market.” He argues that altcoins are now trading at valuations similar to previous market bottoms — notably those seen in late 2016 and early 2020.

Both of those periods were followed by major rallies: the explosive altcoin season of 2017 and the broad bull market of 2020–2021. Van de Poppe believes that a similar setup may be forming, suggesting that undervalued altcoins could see significant long-term appreciation once sentiment shifts.

Meanwhile, analyst Javon Marks pointed out that the “Others Dominance” (OTHERS.D) chart’s RSI indicator has entered an unprecedented oversold zone — the deepest in its history. Marks explained, “When the market reaches such extreme oversold conditions, it often means seller exhaustion is in play, paving the way for a rebound or even a full reversal.”

Other analysts, including Ted, share this optimism, describing the current setup as the potential “beginning of a beautiful bull market.”

Cautious Optimism Ahead

While hopes for an altcoin rebound in November are rising, overall market sentiment remains cautious. The Altcoin Season Index is still below 50, reflecting ongoing investor hesitation despite the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cuts.

Historically, altcoin seasons have tended to begin around November, making the coming weeks a critical period for market direction. Whether this stabilization turns into a genuine breakout remains to be seen — but the signs are aligning for a possible shift in market momentum.

*This content does not constitute investment advice.

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What’s the Current Outlook for Altcoins?

A recent Bloomberg report casts a shadow over the altcoin market, even as Bitcoin approaches one of its strongest monthly closes ever. Smaller and mid-cap cryptocurrencies seem unable to match BTC’s bullish momentum.

A striking chart from MarketVector illustrates the divergence: the purple line shows Bitcoin, while the blue line represents small-cap altcoins. Both surged in November, following Donald Trump’s reelection. But since then, they’ve taken opposite paths — Bitcoin has climbed 73% in the past year, while smaller altcoins have dropped roughly 40%.

This small-cap index includes lesser-known tokens like Maker, Worldcoin, BONK, and Fartcoin. Notably, major altcoins like Ethereum, XRP, and Solana are excluded from this basket.

How Are Leading Altcoins Performing Compared to BTC?

The MarketVector Digital Assets 10 Index, which includes top-tier cryptocurrencies, shows a different story. BTC holds a 31% weight in this index, followed by ETH at 30%, XRP at 13%, BNB at 9.5%, and Solana at 8%.

Key takeaways include:

• Altcoin exposure diluted the index’s performance

• Ethereum, down 26.5% since June 2024, dragged returns significantly

• XRP, with a massive 363% rally, contributed the most despite its modest share

• Solana struggled as hype around meme coins diminished

Nick Philpott, co-founder of Zodia Markets, gave a blunt assessment:
“I think they’ll just die out. Technically, many of them will just sit there collecting dust forever.”

Unfortunately, some metrics back this up. Bitcoin dominance — the percentage of the total crypto market it commands — has grown from 53% to 64% over the past year. This came largely at Ethereum’s expense, as its share shrank from 18% to 9%.

Still, the rest of the altcoin market has maintained a relatively stable 26% share.

Data from CoinGecko shows a significant spike in dead tokens. Since 2021, over 3.7 million altcoins have launched, and more than half have failed. Alarmingly, 1.8 million tokens collapsed in just the first quarter of 2025. A major reason? The pump.fun platform, which lets anyone create a coin — resulting in an oversupply of low-quality meme tokens.

Is Another Altseason Possible?

Analysts remain split. Some, like Blockstream’s Adam Back, believe altcoin speculation is over, urging investors to focus on BTC and treasury-heavy firms like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet.

Others, like Xu Han of HashKey Capital, say only a few selected altcoin projects might deliver substantial gains — suggesting the days of broad-based speculative rallies are behind us.

For some altcoins, securing ETF approval could be the only path to survival. Mergers and consolidations may also reshape the altcoin landscape moving forward.

According to CoinMarketCap, we are firmly in a “Bitcoin season” — and that doesn’t appear likely to change anytime soon.

This content is not intended as investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are high risk and it is important to do your own research before making any investment decisions.

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Arthur Hayes Remains Optimistic Despite the Dip

Bitcoin shed more than 8% over the past week, briefly falling below the $100,000 mark. Still, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes the correction is only temporary. In his words, “this weakness shall pass.”

Bitcoin Drops Below $100K but Recovers Swiftly

Following reports of a U.S. airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, BTC plunged to $98,500 on Sunday — marking its lowest level in over six weeks. However, the dip was short-lived, with the price recovering to $101,000 during early Monday trading in the Asian markets.

Hayes emphasized that Bitcoin will continue to solidify its role as a safe haven asset, particularly as central banks ramp up monetary expansion in response to global instability.

Sideways Action Continues, But Key Support Holds

Market analysts suggest that Bitcoin is currently moving within a consolidation range. As long as BTC holds above $98,000 — a short-term realized price level — and maintains trend support near $102,000, there may be room for short-term rebounds. A drop below this range, however, could shift attention back to defensive trading strategies.

Bitcoin has attempted to break above $110,000 three times in the past five weeks, but macroeconomic pressures have kept it in check. Analysts anticipate this sideways movement could continue through the summer.

Institutional Demand Stays Strong

Despite price swings, institutional interest in Bitcoin remains robust. Market participants suggest that large-scale investors continue to accumulate BTC, interpreting dips as long-term buying opportunities.

Could Altcoins Steal the Spotlight?

Some experts also believe that the coming months could favor altcoins over Bitcoin, especially if macro conditions stabilize. With certain indicators signaling relative strength among altcoins, there is potential for these assets to outperform if crypto-specific catalysts gain momentum.

At the time of writing, most altcoins were trading in the red, and the total crypto market capitalization had fallen by roughly $50 billion in the past 12 hours, settling at around $3.21 trillion.

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According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, the market may soon see a significant shift. “This might be the last real chance to buy BTC under $100,000,” Hayes stated, referring to the potential impact of Treasury buybacks — a mechanism he describes as a “bazooka” for Bitcoin’s price momentum.

These bond repurchase operations, conducted by the U.S. Treasury, aim to inject liquidity into the financial system, stabilize interest rates, and manage national debt — all of which tend to benefit risk-on assets like Bitcoin.

Liquidity and Inflation Could Send BTC Soaring in 2025

Some analysts forecast that the expanding money supply in 2025 will serve as a major upward driver for Bitcoin. Under these macroeconomic conditions, BTC could surpass $132,000 before the end of the year. However, lingering uncertainty around the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China may temporarily temper investor appetite.

Dollar Weakness Adds Fuel to the Rally

Following new tariff announcements in early April, the U.S. Dollar Index dropped to its lowest level since March 2022. During this period, Bitcoin surged past $87,700 — reaching its highest level in nearly three weeks.

One European-based analyst noted that Bitcoin is benefiting from the dollar’s decline, suggesting that macro weakness in fiat currencies is once again reinforcing BTC’s role as a hedge.

Another market expert pointed to a recent breakout from a descending wedge pattern, signaling a potential new leg up. Coupled with the falling dollar and increasing correlation with gold, Bitcoin is regaining its position as a safe-haven asset in turbulent times.

Institutional Demand Remains Strong

Despite recent corrections, major investment firms based in Japan and the UK have reportedly injected hundreds of millions of dollars into Bitcoin. This institutional activity highlights continued confidence in Bitcoin’s four-year cycle theory and long-term value.

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In April, Bitcoin dominance reached its highest level in four years. This indicates that investors are turning to Bitcoin, which is seen as a safer haven. Still, Sygnum emphasized that new digital asset policies implemented in the United States—such as President Donald Trump’s “Digital Asset Reserve” initiative and progress in stablecoin regulations—may accelerate broader crypto adoption.

The bank foresees that protocols capable of attracting user attention will outperform others, and that Bitcoin’s market share may decline in this process.

Sygnum: Focus on Economic Value Heats Up the Competition

Sygnum highlighted that behind the increasing competition in the industry lies a strategic focus on creating economic value. This situation could pave the way for higher-quality projects to come to the forefront in terms of user experience.

The report pointed out that emerging projects like Toncoin, Sui, Aptos, Sonic, and Berachain have entered the competition with different approaches. While these high-performance blockchains offer alternatives to the limitations of leading networks like Ethereum, Solana, and Bitcoin, they still face challenges in gaining a broad user base and generating revenue.

In particular, Berachain’s system of incentivizing liquidity providers, Sonic’s developer-focused reward model, and Toncoin’s access to 1 billion users through Telegram integration were highlighted as sustainable strategies.

Layer-2 Solutions Also in Focus: Base Stands Out

In addition to altcoin-related developments, Sygnum’s report also covered Layer-2 solutions. Specifically, the Base network reached peak user and revenue numbers amid the recent memecoin frenzy. However, this surge quickly declined as interest in memecoins faded.

Despite this, Base remains a leader in key metrics such as daily transaction volume, throughput, and total value locked (TVL).

Memecoins Topped the Charts in Q1

In the first quarter of 2025, despite all price fluctuations, memecoins remained among the top choices for investors. According to data, memecoin projects attracted 27.1% of global investor interest, ranking just behind AI-focused tokens at 35.7%.

While retail investors continue to show interest in memecoins, institutional investors seem to be shifting toward Bitcoin. At least 12 publicly traded companies purchased Bitcoin for the first time in Q1 2025, bringing the total Bitcoin holdings of public firms to $57 billion.

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Altcoin Trading Volume: What Does This Mean for the Altcoin Season?

Altcoin trading volume has returned to pre-FTX levels, but the number of market leaders has decreased. This shift is particularly noticeable as investors are moving away from riskier assets in the face of new trade tariffs and uncertain economic conditions. The question now is: Does this signal the end of an altcoin season?

A report from Kaiko Research and BRN highlights that altcoins have struggled to reach the peaks seen in 2021-2022. While altcoins are gaining dominance over Bitcoin, this growth has been uneven.

According to the report, altcoin trading volume has returned to pre-FTX levels, but the top 10 altcoins account for 64% of the total volume. This suggests that investors are focusing their capital on a select group of assets. Additionally, market depth mirrors this trend, with the top 10 altcoins comprising over 60% of the 1% depth.

Which Altcoins Are Expected to Rise?

After the US elections, altcoin interest did pick up, but it has been limited to a few specific altcoins. Unlike in previous cycles where a rising tide lifted all boats, investors are now concentrating on high-liquidity assets.

Analysts point out that this shrinking pool of market leaders reflects the growing influence of institutional capital. With tighter monetary policies, traders are adopting a more cautious approach. However, there is still hope for certain altcoins. Projects with real-world utility, such as DePIN, may capture investor attention.

In conclusion, investments in altcoins are increasingly focused on projects that generate revenue. This shift means that the likelihood of a major altcoin season, similar to what we have seen in previous years, seems slimmer.

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Woo said that when the Bitcoin price increases, medium and small-cap altcoins may see increases again as investors seek returns from risky investments, but these increases will be shorter and less effective. According to TradingView data, Bitcoin’s market dominance is at 59.31%, and many analysts predict that capital flows may shift to altcoins after this rate reaches 60%.

Woo stated that taking long-term positions in the altcoin market is risky, and that only people with deep knowledge should consider such investments. He stated that the altcoin market is a “casino”-like space where “winners” contribute to the market value, while losers are not included in this value.

Might interest you: What is BabyDoge?

These views contradict Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan’s claims that the upcoming bull market will be focused solely on Bitcoin and its layer 2 solutions. On the other hand, Hashkey Capital analysts argue that Bitcoin’s price must exceed the $80,000 level for the alt season to occur.

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Altcoin Bottom Expected in June, Marking Potential Start of Bull Cycle

The latest market analysis implies that the bottom of the local altcoin price might occur around June, and it might mean the beginning of a new bull cycle. A crypto analyst known as Rekt Capital pointed out historical chart patterns that show such a tendency. Although altcoins have come under pressure recently, they have shown an impressive resolve gaining more than 24% year to date and a whooping 167% over the past year.

On the downside, Alex Onufriychuk, blockchain advisor at QUBIC Labs Accelerator, warned against premature exuberance, referring to the depressed market sentiment and reduced inflows from U. S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). He commented, “Some of them could get to their local bottom by June as there is not enough new liquidity coming from Bitcoin ETFs. ”

The correlation of Bitcoin’s behavior with altcoin feeling remains important. As other coins sit in anticipation of a probable recovery, the fact that Bitcoin is consolidating around the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is a critical factor that the market is monitoring for market sentiment. A strike over this point will clear the way for altcoin rally, analysts propose.

M2 Money Supply Growth Signals Potential Rise in Altcoin Prices

However, despite positive forecasts, analysts caution, stressing that radical changes are necessary for a substantial market revival to last. Onufriychuk pointed out that increased retail and institutional investment, as well as favorable regulatory developments, are needed to ignite a prolonged altcoin rally.

In addition, the recent positive growth of the M2 money supply, which presents a potential hedge to inflation, might trigger the altcoins to regain popularity. Amid economic uncertainties, investors seek for alternative investments, thus, altcoins and meme coins could become more popular and initiate the awaited bull run.
With changes occurring in the cryptocurrency space, investors are always on the lookout for signs of a general market uptrend, and the breakout of Bitcoin usually acts as a key precursor to a possible altcoin bull run.

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