According to data from Deribit, $21.097 billion in notional value across BTC and ETH contracts will roll off at 08:00 UTC. Analysts warn that rate cut signals, liquidity changes, and global risk sentiment could drive sharp price swings. 

Bitcoin Options Show Bullish Sentiment 

Bitcoin dominates with $16 billion in expiring options, representing the lion’s share of today’s activity. Open interest totals 146,224 contracts, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.71, signaling bullish expectations. 

The max pain level stands at $111,000, above the current price of $109,526. This suggests traders may attempt to push spot prices closer to that level as expiry passes, reflecting confidence despite recent pullbacks. 

Options Expiry Alert

At 08:00 UTC tomorrow, over $22.3B in crypto options expire on Deribit; one of the biggest quarter-end expiries. $BTC: Notional: $17.06B | Put/Call: 0.76 | Max Pain: $110K$ETH: Notional: $5.20B | Put/Call: 0.80 | Max Pain: $3,800

Q3’s largest… pic.twitter.com/FDT1tWomYH

— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) September 25, 2025

Ethereum Struggles Below $4,000 

Ethereum accounts for $5.08 billion in notional value with 1.28 million contracts. Its put-to-call ratio is 0.86, showing a more cautious stance than Bitcoin. 

The max pain level of $3,800 sits close to ETH’s current price of $3,963, after dipping below the psychological $4,000 mark earlier this week. Options analytics firm Greeks.live warned that implied volatility skew shifted toward puts, highlighting increased downside risks. 

Market Outlook and Macro Factors 

This expiry dwarfs last week’s $4.3 billion in contracts, underscoring the magnitude of today’s event. As Q3 closes, the crypto market navigates: 

• Bitcoin’s steadier consolidation range 
• Ethereum’s fragile technical outlook 
• Central bank policy shifts and liquidity changes 

Analysts suggest volatility may ease over the weekend as traders reposition. However, given its scale, this expiry could set the tone for Q4, where many investors are already placing bullish bets. 

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