Bitcoin Scarcity Index on the Rise

According to market data, the Bitcoin Scarcity Index on Binance has risen to approximately 5.10. This value represents the highest level seen since October 2025.

The Scarcity Index is used as an indicator that measures the balance between Bitcoin supply readily available for trading on exchanges and demand pressure. A high index level shows that the amount of Bitcoin ready for sale in the market has decreased compared to historical averages.

This situation typically signals a change in investor behavior. Many investors prefer to withdraw their Bitcoin to cold wallets or hold it long-term instead of keeping it on exchanges. In such an environment, any sudden increase in demand can lead to faster price movements due to limited liquidity in the market.

Bitcoin Reserves on Exchanges Are Declining

Another data point supporting the supply tightening is the total amount of Bitcoin held on centralized exchanges. According to on-chain analyses, the total BTC amount on exchanges has fallen to approximately 2.7 million BTC. This figure stands out as one of the lowest levels seen since the end of 2020.

The decline in exchange reserves is considered an important signal indicating that investors are tending to hold their assets for longer periods.

Whale Wallets Reach Record Levels

Parallel to the supply tightening in the market, large investors’ Bitcoin accumulation is also increasing. According to current data, the number of wallets holding at least 100 BTC has reached 20,031, setting a new record. At current prices, a wallet holding 100 BTC is worth approximately $7.15 million.

In addition, approximately 954 thousand wallets hold between 1 and 100 BTC, while 57.6 million wallets have 1 BTC or less. This distribution reveals that Bitcoin ownership is concentrated among large investors while the small investor base remains quite broad.

Long-Term Investors Are Selling Less

Despite Bitcoin’s price having declined approximately 43% from its October peak, long-term investors appear to be acting more cautiously on the selling side than expected.

According to the data, long-term investors spent around 15.1 million BTC in the 2025 cycle. This figure is slightly below the 15.3 million BTC sold in the 2021 cycle. In previous market cycles, long-term investor spending was recorded at 7.3 million BTC and 13.6 million BTC respectively.

The structural changes in the market are also seen as an important factor influencing these figures. The increase in institutional investors, ETFs, and companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets is reshaping the definition of “long-term investor” over time.

Bitcoin Supply Dynamics Are Changing

While ETFs must hold a certain level of reserves to meet investor demand, some companies continue to view Bitcoin as a long-term strategic asset. This situation may contribute to a more balanced selling pressure in the market compared to previous cycles.

Rising scarcity signals, whale accumulation, and limited selling by long-term investors indicate that Bitcoin supply is tightening further. However, whether this will create a strong upward movement in price will depend on how demand evolves in the coming period. As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $71,526 amid the general market uptrend, gaining approximately 3% in the last 24 hours.

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Pricing activity in the options market indicates that market participants are beginning to adopt a more optimistic outlook for Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.

Options Market Reflects the $80,000 Scenario

According to derivatives market indicators, current options pricing implies roughly a 35% probability that Bitcoin could trade above $80,000 by the end of June. This represents a clear change compared with the more cautious sentiment that dominated the market earlier.

Some analysts believe that traders are positioning for a potential recovery phase between June and September, during which Bitcoin could regain higher price levels.

Options contracts allow investors to take positions on whether Bitcoin’s price will rise or fall. These financial instruments enable traders to speculate on price movements while limiting potential losses to the premium paid for the contract.

Options Data Points to Growing Bullish Expectations

One of the most widely monitored indicators in the options market is known as skew, which measures the pricing difference between call and put options. This metric helps analysts understand whether traders are leaning toward bullish or bearish expectations.

When call options are priced higher than put options, it typically signals bullish sentiment. Conversely, higher premiums on put options usually indicate that traders are hedging against potential price declines.

Recent data shows a significant recovery in Bitcoin’s options skew, suggesting a shift in trader expectations.

Market Fear Appears to Be Easing

The seven-day and thirty-day skew indicators in the Bitcoin options market have rebounded considerably from the deeply negative levels seen earlier in the year.

In early February, skew metrics fell to around -25%, reflecting strong demand for downside protection as Bitcoin experienced a sharp drop toward the $25,000 range. Since then, sentiment has gradually improved as market conditions stabilized.

The recovery in skew suggests that traders are scaling back protective hedges against a major market crash and are becoming more comfortable with the current price environment.

Increase in Put Writing Signals Confidence

Another notable development in derivatives markets is the rise in put option writing across multiple trading venues. Writing put options is often interpreted as a strategy used by traders who believe that prices are unlikely to experience a sharp decline.

By selling these options, traders collect premiums while assuming downside risk. The growing popularity of this strategy indicates that many participants expect Bitcoin prices to remain stable or trend higher rather than experience significant downside pressure.

Bitcoin Holds Near $70,000

At the moment, Bitcoin is trading close to the $70,000 level, representing an increase of roughly 5% over the past month.

Considering the positioning in derivatives markets and the pricing of options contracts, many investors appear to be preparing for the possibility that Bitcoin could enter another upward phase in the months ahead.

Overall, the latest developments in the options market suggest that confidence among crypto traders is gradually returning, with growing expectations that Bitcoin could eventually challenge higher price levels once again.

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According to the company’s assessment, although some positive indicators exist in the crypto market, the overall picture does not yet show a strong bullish trend forming.

Market Indicators Sending Mixed Signals

The 10x Research report emphasizes that momentum in the crypto market has a fragile structure. While the resumption of inflows into Bitcoin ETFs is evaluated as a positive development, it is noted that trading volumes do not yet indicate a strong recovery.

The analysis states that spot market trading volume remains at low levels. The weekly average trading volume hovering around $109 billion stands out as an important data point showing that the market has not yet entered a strong expansion phase.

According to experts, without new liquidity inflows, it will be difficult to see a sustainable and strong upward movement in the market.

Derivatives Markets Pricing in Downside Risk for Bitcoin and Ethereum

The report particularly draws attention to the derivatives markets. In these markets, where institutional investors are heavily active, it is indicated that investors are behaving cautiously when it comes to taking risky positions.

According to 10x Research, traders are showing reluctance especially in opening long positions. Instead, strategies that provide protection against downside risk are being preferred more frequently.

The uncertainty created by geopolitical developments is causing many investors to act more cautiously in the market. This situation is seen as one of the factors preventing the formation of a clear bullish trend so far.

Activity on the Ethereum Network Has Weakened

The analysis also shared an important data point regarding the Ethereum network. One of the indicators pointing to weakening transaction activity on Ethereum is the gas fees.

Transaction fees, currently at 0.03 gwei, fall within the lowest 4% percentile when historical data is examined. This situation shows that the number of transactions and user activity on the network are quite low.

According to experts, low gas fees indicate weak demand on the network and that the market is generally in a wait-and-see mode. Therefore, it is evaluated that new macro developments and liquidity flows will be decisive for the direction to become clear in the markets in the short term.

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Criticism of Common Valuation Models

In comments shared on the social media platform X, PlanC argued that several popular quantitative approaches used to estimate Bitcoin’s fair value may be fundamentally flawed. Methods such as ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and linear quantile regression, which are frequently applied in financial modeling, were specifically highlighted as potentially misleading when applied to Bitcoin’s long-term price behavior.

Using these traditional techniques, analysts often arrive at fair value estimates ranging between $118,000 and $130,000. However, PlanC believes those figures rely on statistical assumptions that fail to reflect how Bitcoin’s price structure evolves over time. According to the analyst, the models overlook important structural shifts that have gradually altered Bitcoin’s long-term growth pattern.

The Role of “Decay” in Bitcoin’s Price Model

A key element of PlanC’s argument centers on what the analyst describes as a “decay” effect within Bitcoin’s price distribution. In statistical terms, this effect appears most clearly at the median level, or the 50th quantile, where the growth curve of the model gradually weakens over time.

Because of this dynamic, PlanC suggests that static or purely linear models are not well suited for estimating Bitcoin’s fair value. Instead, models that incorporate time-dependent decay functions may produce more realistic results.

When applying alternative mathematical approaches—including logarithmic, hyperbolic, and log-normal decay functions—PlanC’s model calculates Bitcoin’s current fair value at roughly $100,000 to $101,000. This range is significantly lower than the estimates produced by several traditional regression-based models.

Why Lower Quantiles Behave Differently

Interestingly, PlanC noted that this decay effect does not appear uniformly across all quantiles. At the first quantile, for example, no noticeable decay is present. As a result, calculations at lower quantile levels produce results that closely match those generated by standard linear quantile regression models.

However, the difference becomes more pronounced at the median level. According to the analyst, this is where the largest distortion occurs when traditional modeling techniques are used, leading some valuation frameworks to overestimate Bitcoin’s fair value.

A New Perspective on Bitcoin’s Valuation

Based on the model presented by PlanC, Bitcoin’s statistically derived fair value currently sits near $101,000. The analyst argues that models projecting significantly higher values are often built on assumptions that do not fully account for the evolving nature of Bitcoin’s long-term price behavior.

As the cryptocurrency market matures, analysts continue experimenting with different frameworks to better understand Bitcoin’s valuation. PlanC’s approach introduces another angle to the debate, highlighting how alternative statistical models may reshape the conversation around Bitcoin’s true market value.

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According to PlanB, considering Bitcoin’s supply structure and past market cycles, much higher price levels appear theoretically possible in this cycle. This assessment is based on economic models relying on Bitcoin’s limited supply.

What Does the Stock-to-Flow Model Say?

At the core of PlanB’s analysis lies the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. This model attempts to measure scarcity by comparing an asset’s existing stock with the rate of new production. For assets with limited supply like Bitcoin, this approach provides a framework for understanding potential value increases.

The “halving” event that occurs approximately every four years in the Bitcoin network halves the block reward miners receive. This mechanism reduces the amount of newly produced Bitcoin while also restricting the new supply entering the market. If demand remains the same or increases, this scarcity can create upward pressure on the price.

According to PlanB’s calculations, in the current cycle Bitcoin’s price could trade in a range between $250,000 and $1 million. The analyst suggests that the average value of this range could be around $500,000. However, he particularly emphasizes that this forecast does not represent a specific peak price, but rather the average levels that could form throughout the cycle.

There Are Also More Cautious Forecasts

That said, not all analysts share such high price predictions. While some market experts acknowledge significant upside potential for Bitcoin, they set more measured targets.

Crypto analyst Bobby A believes Bitcoin could experience a strong rise in the current market cycle, but more realistic targets would likely fall in the $200,000 to $250,000 range. According to him, these levels could be seen as the market cycle matures in 2026 or 2027.

Bobby A also argues that models like Stock-to-Flow should be evaluated more as theoretical tools that help understand long-term trends rather than tools that produce precise price predictions.

Short-Term Outlook for Bitcoin

In the short term, Bitcoin’s price continues to follow a volatile path. Recently approaching the $74,000 level, the price then experienced some pullback. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $67,300. Although a slight decline was observed in the last 24 hours, a limited increase stands out on a weekly basis.

Various factors lie behind this volatility in the market. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East and changes in investment flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are among the main elements influencing price movements.

Nevertheless, many analysts believe that after the strong rally that pushed Bitcoin above $72,000 earlier in the year, the market is currently in more of a consolidation phase. This period is regarded as a time when the market is trying to balance itself before determining a new direction.

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According to Woo, the sharp decline observed during the early phase of the ongoing bear market may have occurred faster than expected. While the market environment remains uncertain, he suggests that such rapid downturns can sometimes create conditions for a medium-term rebound attempt.

In recent weeks, Bitcoin has traded in a volatile range, reflecting the ongoing struggle between buyers and sellers to establish a clear direction. Woo’s analysis indicates that the market could be approaching a phase where a temporary recovery becomes more likely.

Resistance Emerging Around the $75,000 Level

Woo points out that Bitcoin has recently encountered a local resistance zone near the $75,000 mark. Although this level has proven difficult to break so far, several market indicators hint at improving investor activity.

In particular, the analyst highlights that capital inflows into the market have gradually begun to recover since mid-February. This trend may signal early signs of strengthening liquidity within the crypto market. Increasing liquidity often plays a critical role in supporting price movements, especially for assets known for their volatility.

If these inflows continue, they could provide additional momentum for Bitcoin to test higher levels in the near term.

Rising Risk Appetite Could Support Crypto Markets

Another indicator Woo references is the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a widely used measure of expected volatility in financial markets and a proxy for investor sentiment.

Movements in the VIX suggest that market participants may soon become more comfortable taking on risk again. When risk appetite returns to broader financial markets, assets like cryptocurrencies often benefit from renewed investor interest.

Under such conditions, Bitcoin could experience stronger demand as investors allocate capital toward higher-risk assets with growth potential.

Potential Recovery Toward $85,000

Woo argues that the speed of Bitcoin’s earlier decline may have pushed prices down too aggressively during the initial stage of the bear market. Because of this, the current environment could allow for a corrective rebound.

In his view, Bitcoin may attempt to move toward the $85,000 level. This area is particularly significant because it roughly corresponds to the average cost basis for many short-term holders. As a result, it may act as an important technical level where selling pressure could re-emerge if the price approaches it.

The Bear Market May Still Be in Progress

Despite the possibility of a short-term recovery, Woo cautions that such a move should not necessarily be interpreted as confirmation that the market has reached its ultimate bottom.

Long-term liquidity indicators still suggest that Bitcoin could remain in the middle stage of a broader bear market cycle. Historical patterns show that after rapid price drops, markets often enter periods of consolidation where prices repeatedly test key resistance zones before establishing a more sustainable recovery.

For this reason, even if Bitcoin experiences upward reactions in the short term, the broader market outlook may still require additional time and data before a clear trend reversal can be confirmed.

This content does not constitute investment advice.

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Whales Move to Take Profits

Large Bitcoin holders—often referred to as “whales”—have recently begun reducing their positions after a period of accumulation. This group, typically defined as wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC, plays a significant role in shaping market trends due to the scale of their transactions.

Data shows that these investors accumulated substantial amounts of Bitcoin between February 23 and March 3, when prices were trading in the range of $62,900 to $69,600. However, when Bitcoin later climbed above $70,000 and briefly approached the $74,000 level, many of these large holders started locking in profits.

Since that point, whales have reportedly sold approximately 66% of the Bitcoin they had recently accumulated, suggesting a shift in market sentiment among major investors.

Retail Investors Increase Accumulation

While large holders were selling into the rally, smaller investors moved in the opposite direction. Retail participants—defined as wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC—have been steadily increasing their holdings as prices dipped below the $70,000 threshold.

This divergence between retail buying and whale selling has historically been viewed as a warning sign in cryptocurrency markets. When smaller investors accumulate during periods of large-scale profit-taking by whales, it often indicates that a broader market correction may still be underway.

Bitcoin Trades Near the $68,000 Level

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $67,984. The recent price decline has also affected overall market sentiment.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped by six points following the latest pullback, falling to a reading of 12. This level places the market firmly within the “Extreme Fear” zone, reflecting growing caution among investors.

Key Support Zone Around $67K–$68K

Some analysts have identified the $67,000 to $68,000 range as a crucial short-term support level for Bitcoin. If the price fails to hold within this zone, the market could revisit previous lows in search of liquidity before any meaningful recovery begins.

Temporary declines followed by rebounds are not uncommon during volatile market cycles, especially in periods of heightened uncertainty.

Significant Outflows From Spot Bitcoin ETFs

The price decline has also coincided with notable capital outflows from U.S.-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Across 11 ETF products, net outflows reached approximately $348.9 million in a single day.

This marked the largest daily withdrawal from these investment vehicles in roughly three weeks, suggesting that institutional investors may also be adopting a more cautious stance toward the market.

$60,000 Could Act as a Strong Floor

Bitcoin previously dropped to around $60,000 on February 6 during the broader correction that followed its record high of $126,000 reached in October. After touching that level, the market managed to stage a modest rebound.

Some economists believe the $60,000 level could serve as a significant support zone for the time being. Certain valuation models that compare Bitcoin’s price to network value metrics suggest this area has historically aligned with market bottoms.

Although the long-term outlook remains uncertain, many market participants continue to monitor whale activity, investor sentiment, and institutional flows to determine whether the current correction has reached its final stage.

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While short-term volatility is common in the cryptocurrency market, the current move appears closely linked to developments across global financial markets rather than crypto-specific factors alone.

Rising Global Uncertainty Weighs on Risk Assets Such as Bitcoin

In recent days, investors have increasingly adopted a defensive stance. Escalating geopolitical risks and growing uncertainty in international markets are prompting traders to reduce exposure to higher-risk assets.

This shift in sentiment has not been limited to cryptocurrencies. Equity markets and commodities are also reacting to the changing risk environment. When global uncertainty increases, investors typically rebalance their portfolios by moving capital away from volatile assets and toward instruments perceived as more stable.

As a result, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are experiencing temporary downside pressure alongside other growth-oriented assets.

Oil Prices Surge Amid Middle East Tensions

The impact of these developments is also being felt in the energy market. Oil prices rose above $88, increasing by 4.76% in the last 24 hours. This increase is believed to be influenced by the risks that tensions in the Middle East could create for energy supply.

Market participants attribute the sharp rise primarily to concerns that escalating tensions in the Middle East could disrupt global energy supply. Any threat to oil production or transportation routes often triggers rapid price increases, as traders factor potential shortages into market expectations.

Higher energy prices can also influence broader financial conditions by increasing inflationary pressures and adding to global economic uncertainty.

Stronger Dollar and Higher Bond Yields Reflect Market Caution

The cautious mood is also evident in traditional financial indicators. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar’s strength against a basket of major currencies, has moved above the 99 level. At the same time, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury has risen to approximately 4.16%.

Both developments suggest that investors are gravitating toward dollar-denominated assets and government bonds, which are often viewed as safer during periods of market stress.

Technology Stocks and Crypto-Related Shares Under Pressure

The shift toward a risk-off environment is also impacting technology equities. The Invesco QQQ ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq-100 index, slipped about 0.5% in pre-market trading.

Companies closely tied to the cryptocurrency ecosystem have shown similar weakness. Shares of firms such as Strategy, Coinbase, and MARA Holdings have also declined in pre-market activity, reflecting broader caution among investors.

These movements highlight how cryptocurrency markets can at times move in tandem with traditional financial assets, particularly technology stocks.

Geopolitical Tensions are Putting Pressure on Risky Assets Like Bitcoin

The ongoing tensions in the Middle East remain one of the primary drivers behind the current market environment. The conflict, which has persisted for roughly a week, has already influenced energy markets and investor sentiment worldwide.

As geopolitical uncertainty rises, investors often prioritize capital preservation over growth opportunities. In such periods, riskier assets—including Bitcoin and high-growth technology stocks—can face short-term selling pressure.

Looking ahead, developments in global geopolitics and shifts in investor risk appetite are likely to remain key factors influencing both cryptocurrency markets and traditional financial assets.

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According to her analysis, the divergence in market sentiment between the two assets could create conditions where Bitcoin eventually outperforms gold.

A Shifting Dynamic Between Bitcoin and Gold

Alden points out that market behavior between Bitcoin and gold often follows a cyclical pattern. Periods of strong performance in one asset can eventually be followed by renewed momentum in the other. From her perspective, the current environment suggests that Bitcoin may be positioned to regain strength after gold’s recent surge.

Looking at the next two to three years, Alden believes the probability of Bitcoin outperforming gold in terms of price appreciation is relatively high. If she were forced to choose between the two assets under current conditions, she says she would lean toward Bitcoin.

Strong Optimism Surrounding Gold

Gold prices have recently reached new highs, climbing to approximately $5,608 in January. This sharp increase has significantly boosted investor interest in the precious metal.

However, Alden does not characterize the current situation as a speculative bubble. Instead, she describes it as a period of strong optimism among market participants. Several sentiment indicators support this view. One index measuring investor mood in the gold market recently reached 72 out of 100, placing it firmly within the “greed” territory.

Such readings suggest that investors are currently very bullish on gold.

Cautious Sentiment in the Bitcoin Market

In contrast, sentiment toward Bitcoin appears considerably more conservative. Indicators tracking market psychology in the cryptocurrency sector recently signaled “extreme fear,” reflecting a more defensive attitude among investors.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $71,000, which is roughly 44% below its all-time high of $126,000 recorded in October. Alden suggests that this gap between price levels and investor sentiment could indicate that the market is overly pessimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects.

Bitcoin and Gold Do Not Always Move Together

Bitcoin is frequently compared with gold as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. Because of this narrative, many investors refer to Bitcoin as “digital gold.”

However, Alden stresses that the relationship between the two assets is not always consistent. There are periods when Bitcoin and gold rise together, but there are also times when their price movements diverge significantly.

For this reason, she cautions against relying too heavily on a fixed narrative when evaluating the interaction between the two markets.

Diverging Views on Bitcoin’s Long-Term Role

Not all investors agree on Bitcoin’s role as a safe-haven asset. Some critics argue that gold maintains a stronger position because it is widely held by central banks as part of their reserve portfolios, giving it a long-established status in the global financial system.

At the same time, many analysts within the cryptocurrency industry believe the connection between Bitcoin and gold is gradually strengthening. In periods of macroeconomic uncertainty, both assets are increasingly viewed as alternative stores of value, reinforcing their roles in diversified portfolios.

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Brief Rally Pushes Bitcoin Above $74,000

Earlier in the week, Bitcoin climbed above the $74,000 level, marking its highest price in roughly a month. During this move, the asset briefly tested the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), a technical level widely monitored by traders.

Despite the strong upward move, the rally quickly lost momentum. Bitcoin retraced more than $3,000 shortly afterward and slipped back below the $71,000 level during the following trading sessions. This pullback indicates that bullish momentum remains fragile and that sellers are still active in the market.

Indicators Continue to Signal Bearish Conditions for Bitcoin

According to data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, the broader market environment still leans bearish. The firm tracks Bitcoin’s overall market health using its Bull Score Index, a composite metric that combines several fundamental and technical indicators.

Currently, the index sits at 10 out of 100, a level considered deeply bearish. Such a reading implies that the structural conditions typically associated with a sustained bull market are not yet present. Analysts therefore view the recent price increase as more of a relief rally rather than the beginning of a new bullish phase.

Macroeconomic Uncertainty Weighs on the Market

The recent upward movement in Bitcoin appears to have been supported by a temporary improvement in risk appetite and continued inflows into crypto investment products such as ETFs. Nevertheless, macroeconomic uncertainty continues to create headwinds for risk assets.

Upcoming U.S. economic data remains a key factor. In particular, expectations of a slowdown in February nonfarm payroll growth have led some investors to adopt a cautious stance. These macro signals could maintain pressure on cryptocurrencies, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to further downside volatility.

Signs of Renewed Demand From U.S. Investors

While several indicators point to caution, some data suggests that demand may be returning. The Coinbase Premium, which reflects the difference between Bitcoin prices on Coinbase and other global exchanges, has recently turned positive.

Earlier in February, this metric was deeply negative, indicating weak demand from U.S. investors. The recent shift toward positive territory — reaching its strongest level since October — suggests that buying interest in the United States may be recovering.

Additionally, selling pressure from both short-term traders and long-term holders appears to be easing. Unrealized losses recently reached levels not seen since July 2022, after which selling activity began to decline.

A Possible Shift in Market Momentum

Some market observers believe that the current phase may represent a transition away from the most negative momentum seen in recent months. Historically, similar shifts have sometimes preceded larger structural changes in market trends.

Even so, analysts emphasize that caution remains essential. While Bitcoin’s recent rebound has provided temporary optimism, both technical signals and macroeconomic factors suggest that the market has not yet fully escaped bearish dynamics.

For now, the data points to a market in transition — one where volatility may persist until stronger evidence of a sustained bullish trend emerges.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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