What Is the CLARITY Act Designed to Do?

Commonly referred to as the CLARITY Act, the proposed bill seeks to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States. The legislation has already advanced in the House of Representatives, while discussions and negotiations continue in the Senate.

Two primary sticking points remain unresolved. The first concerns whether stablecoin issuers should be allowed to offer yield or rewards to holders. Crypto-native firms argue that yield-bearing stablecoins are essential for competitiveness and innovation. Traditional banks, however, contend that allowing interest-like returns on stablecoin balances could draw deposits away from the banking system and introduce financial stability risks.

The second area of contention involves conflict-of-interest provisions. Some lawmakers are pushing for restrictions that would limit the ability of senior government officials — including the President — and their families to participate in certain crypto-related financial activities. Reports suggest that discussions between industry representatives, banking groups, and policymakers are ongoing, with the possibility of compromise still on the table.

Eight Potential Tailwinds if Passed

JPMorgan analysts outline eight potential benefits should the bill become law.

First, it would clearly distinguish between “digital commodities” regulated by the CFTC and “digital securities” overseen by the SEC, reducing compliance uncertainty. A grandfather provision could allow certain ETF-linked assets such as XRP, Solana, Litecoin, Hedera, Dogecoin, and Chainlink to fall under the more flexible CFTC framework.

Second, early-stage projects would be granted a transition period allowing up to $75 million in annual fundraising without full SEC registration while progressing toward decentralization. Third, tokens initially sold as securities could later transition to commodity status once sufficiently decentralized.

Fourth and fifth, clearer rules for intermediaries and custody could enable institutions like BNY Mellon and State Street to directly safeguard digital assets, while also supporting tokenization of traditional securities. Sixth, miners, validators, and software developers would receive exemptions from broker-style reporting during development under certain conditions.

Seventh, small crypto payments could qualify for tax exemptions, and staking taxation would gain clarity. Eighth, by defining stablecoins more as digital cash than investment products, the bill could shift institutional interest toward tokenized deposits.

If enacted by mid-year as anticipated, the CLARITY Act could significantly reshape the regulatory landscape and improve market structure clarity heading into the second half of the year.

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The strategist, who has recently leaned toward bearish outlooks, argued that Bitcoin’s current technical structure reflects one of the weakest setups in its history. His remarks added fuel to an already cautious market environment, drawing sharp reactions from investors and analysts alike.

The “Unlimited Crypto Supply” Argument

A central pillar of McGlone’s thesis is the rapid expansion of the broader digital asset market. He grouped Bitcoin alongside thousands of other crypto assets, emphasizing what he described as an effectively “unlimited supply” of cryptocurrencies. According to his view, the continuous influx of new tokens dilutes value and creates structural pressure across the asset class.

This framing has sparked criticism from Bitcoin proponents who highlight its fixed 21 million supply cap as a defining feature. Meanwhile, some macro-focused observers argue that capital fragmentation across an expanding token universe may indeed weaken overall pricing power.

Was 2024 Bitcoin the Peak?

McGlone also suggested that Bitcoin’s 2024 performance may represent the high-water mark for the current cycle. He compared present market dynamics to historic speculative episodes, drawing parallels to the Tulip Mania period as a cautionary analogy.

Such comparisons revive a long-standing question within financial markets: Is Bitcoin a legitimate store of value, or does it resemble a speculative bubble vulnerable to sharp correction? While McGlone’s position is clearly cautious, other strategists participating in the discussion pushed back, emphasizing Bitcoin’s long-term structural narrative.

A Market Divided

The $10,000 forecast, combined with concerns over deteriorating technical indicators, has contributed to a more defensive tone among some market participants. At the same time, supporters point to ongoing adoption trends, institutional involvement, and Bitcoin’s supply mechanics as reasons to challenge an overly pessimistic outlook.

What remains clear is that consensus is absent. The intensity of the debate itself suggests that Bitcoin may be approaching a pivotal phase, where macro forces, technical signals, and investor conviction collide.

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December Crypto and Bitcoin Outlook Played Out Almost Exactly

In a client note shared on December 17, 2025, Farrell warned that the first half of 2026 would be marked by sustained pressure across major digital assets. In that analysis, he projected that Bitcoin could retreat into the $60,000–$65,000 range before stabilizing. He also outlined downside targets for other large-cap assets, forecasting Ethereum to fall toward $1,800–$2,000 and Solana to correct into the $50–$75 band.

Recent price action has aligned closely with those projections. Bitcoin briefly touched the $60,000 level, Ethereum slipped as low as $1,747, and Solana traded down to around $67.5. The convergence between forecast and reality has reinforced Farrell’s credibility at a time when market sentiment remains fragile.

Tone Shifts Toward Opportunity

Following this corrective phase, Farrell has adjusted his outlook. In his latest remarks, the Fundstrat strategist argued that the balance of risk may soon begin to favor buyers rather than sellers. According to Farrell, the depth of the recent pullback has brought prices closer to levels that historically offered more attractive medium- and long-term entry points.

While he stopped short of calling an exact bottom, Farrell emphasized that the window for selective accumulation could be approaching. His view is based on the idea that much of the anticipated downside has already been absorbed by the market, reducing the asymmetry against new positions.

A Notable Contrast Within Fundstrat’s Orbit

An interesting contrast emerges when looking at Fundstrat’s broader leadership. Tom Lee, the firm’s founder and CEO, also serves as chairman of Ethereum-focused treasury company BitMine. Lee has taken a markedly different approach, backing aggressive accumulation rather than waiting for confirmation.

Over the past six months, BitMine has deployed roughly $16 billion into Ethereum. However, given ETH’s sharp decline, that position currently reflects around $8 billion in unrealized losses. The divergence between Farrell’s tactical caution and Lee’s conviction-driven accumulation highlights the tension between timing risk and long-term belief in crypto assets.

Overall, Farrell’s latest message suggests that while volatility remains elevated, the market may be entering a zone where strategic positioning becomes more relevant than outright risk avoidance.

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Spot Bitcoin ETFs Show Remarkable Resilience

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has highlighted that spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to demonstrate exceptional strength, even as Bitcoin prices retreat. A key example is BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which recently reached a peak of $100 billion in assets under management before declining alongside the broader market.

Following the downturn, IBIT’s assets fell to roughly $60 billion. However, Balchunas emphasizes that this figure remains extraordinary for an ETF with a lifespan of only around 500 days. According to his assessment, even if the fund were to remain at the $60 billion level for the next three years, it would still retain its position as the fastest ETF in history to reach that scale.

This perspective underscores how rapidly institutional exposure to Bitcoin has developed, regardless of near-term price fluctuations.

Investor Conviction Remains Intact

One of the most telling indicators comes from ETF flow data. Balchunas notes that total outflows from Bitcoin ETFs amount to only about 6% of assets, meaning approximately 94% of investors have chosen to hold their positions.

This is particularly notable given that Bitcoin has experienced a price decline of roughly 40%, placing a significant portion of investors in unrealized loss territory. Despite this, the majority of ETF holders have resisted the urge to exit. Such behavior suggests that these participants are operating with a long-term investment horizon rather than reacting to short-term market noise.

From an institutional standpoint, this kind of holding pattern is often associated with confidence in the asset’s broader thesis rather than speculative trading.

A Wry Reaction From Binance’s Founder

Balchunas’s bullish-leaning interpretation did not go unnoticed within the crypto industry. Changpeng Zhao, founder of Binance, responded publicly to the commentary, expressing mild surprise at hearing such an optimistic take from a Bloomberg analyst.

Zhao humorously referenced the frequent “Bitcoin is dead” narrative often seen in traditional media, implying that the tone of this assessment marked a notable departure from that pattern.

Bigger Picture: Volatility vs. Structure

While Bitcoin’s price remains volatile, ETF data suggests that institutional conviction has not materially weakened. The contrast between short-term price pressure and long-term capital commitment continues to define the current market landscape, keeping the broader bull case firmly in discussion.

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Bitcoin Faces Renewed “Market Top” Debate

Mike McGlone, a senior analyst at Bloomberg, has adopted a notably cautious tone when assessing Bitcoin’s recent price behavior. According to McGlone, Bitcoin’s failure to sustain a move above the $100,000 level could represent an important warning sign for the market. He suggests that this rejection may point to the formation of a cyclical peak rather than a temporary pause.

McGlone also emphasizes Bitcoin’s continued sensitivity to equity market volatility. This strong correlation, in his view, increases downside risk during periods of financial stress. As a result, he argues that Bitcoin may have already established its high for the year, making a more restrained short-term price structure increasingly likely.

Signs of Overheating in Commodity Markets

Beyond digital assets, McGlone highlights growing concerns within traditional commodity markets. He points to signs of overheating in silver and copper, noting that rapid price appreciation in these assets raises questions about sustainability. In the case of gold, McGlone finds the current rally particularly unsettling, given that it is occurring during a period of relatively low equity market volatility.

Within this macro environment, McGlone identifies U.S. Treasury bonds as the most reliable safe-haven asset. He suggests that fixed income markets could present one of the most compelling opportunities in the year ahead, particularly if economic uncertainty intensifies.

Debt Dynamics and Monetary Policy Concerns

Another market commentator, James Lavish, directs attention toward the global debt cycle and ongoing currency debasement. Lavish argues that Japan’s apparent loss of control over long-term government bond yields serves as a critical warning for global markets.

He believes the U.S. Treasury will ultimately intervene to protect its interests, a move that would likely result in further monetary expansion. While Lavish expects Bitcoin to reflect these dynamics over the long term, he maintains that, in the near term, the asset continues to be treated primarily as a high-risk investment.

Psychological Pressure Continues in Bitcoin Markets

CoinRoutes CEO Dave Weisberger focuses on sentiment within the Bitcoin market itself. He describes Bitcoin as being trapped within a defined trading range, undergoing what he calls a “time-based capitulation.” According to Weisberger, the aftershocks from volatility experienced in October have yet to fully dissipate, leaving the market in need of a new narrative.

Weisberger also notes that supply-demand dynamics in silver may act as a leading indicator for Bitcoin. However, he warns that investor impatience is adding short-term pressure. He concludes that uncertainties such as a potential government shutdown disproportionately affect crypto markets, given the sector’s ongoing need for regulatory clarity.

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McGlone’s projections extend beyond digital assets, offering a broader perspective on how macroeconomic pressures could reshape multiple asset classes over the coming years.

Warning Signs for Bitcoin’s Long-Term Trajectory

According to McGlone, Bitcoin could face substantial downside risk in 2026. Under his base-case scenario, the world’s largest cryptocurrency may retreat to the $50,000 level. In a more adverse global environment, however, he suggests that losses could deepen significantly, with prices potentially revisiting the $10,000 range—implying a drawdown of up to 90% from higher levels.

This bearish outlook is not driven solely by macroeconomic headwinds. McGlone emphasizes that Bitcoin’s internal competitive landscape has changed dramatically. While Bitcoin was the first cryptocurrency when it launched in 2009, it now competes with millions of digital assets, which may dilute its long-term value proposition.

Bitcoin Versus Gold: A Structural Comparison

A key element of McGlone’s analysis involves comparing Bitcoin to gold as a store of value. He points out that gold faces only a limited number of direct competitors—primarily silver, platinum, and palladium. This relatively narrow competitive field has helped gold maintain its status as a stable reserve asset over time.

Bitcoin, by contrast, operates in a rapidly expanding digital ecosystem, where constant innovation and token proliferation may apply sustained pressure on its dominance in the years ahead.

A Brighter Outlook for Gold

While his Bitcoin outlook remains cautious, McGlone is notably more optimistic about gold. He projects that gold prices could rise by approximately 10% by 2026, potentially exceeding $5,000 per ounce.

He also suggests that gold’s relative strength may serve as an early indicator of stress in risk assets. Historically, periods of strong gold performance have coincided with corrections in equity markets.

A Challenging Year Across Asset Classes

Looking beyond Bitcoin and gold, McGlone believes 2026 could be a difficult year for most asset classes. He warns of potential corrections in U.S. equities and expects continued pressure on commodities such as oil, copper, silver, and other risk-sensitive assets.

Taken together, these projections highlight the importance of disciplined risk management as markets approach a potentially volatile phase.

This content does not constitute investment advice.

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Liquidity Pressures Trigger Market Retreat

The leading cryptocurrency fell to nearly $93,000 on Sunday before recovering to around $95,285 at the time of writing — its weakest level since early May.

Over the last 24 hours, the crypto market saw $619 million in liquidations, including $243 million from Bitcoin positions alone. Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index slipped to 10, signaling a state of “extreme fear.”

Derek Lim, Research Director at Caladan, attributes the sell-off primarily to liquidity shortages. He notes that the recent U.S. government shutdown left the Treasury General Account elevated, reducing liquidity across markets. Lim expects this pressure to ease as government spending resumes and postponed payments flow back into the system. He also points to Japan’s proposed 17 trillion yen ($110 billion) stimulus package as a potential catalyst for improved global liquidity.

Funding Stress Adds to Bearish Sentiment on Bitcoin

Edward Carroll, Head of Markets at MHC Digital Group, highlights growing stress signals in treasury bill spreads, repo markets, and other funding indicators — patterns reminiscent of 2018 and 2019. According to Carroll, crypto tends to react to such shifts ahead of traditional markets.

The weakened probability of another Federal Reserve rate cut in December and the $1.1 billion outflow from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs last week amplified the downward momentum.

Still, Carroll maintains that the mid-term outlook remains encouraging. He points to Bitcoin’s increasingly recognized role as a form of digital gold, expectations for a future liquidity recovery, and ongoing institutional engagement.

Bitcoin Analysis: Key Support Levels to Watch

BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas says Bitcoin is currently testing support near $94,000, with a more critical floor between $88,000 and $91,000. Lucas notes that while these levels signal a technical bear market, previous cycles have experienced similar drawdowns before pushing to new highs.

Lim adds that the 50-week simple moving average, now near $103,000, has become a crucial indicator. A weekly close below this level is often viewed as bearish, though he stresses that the true signal depends on whether Bitcoin remains below it for an extended period.

Altcoins Remain Under Pressure

Altcoins also faced notable losses. Ethereum slipped to $3,144, marking a 13.4% weekly drop. XRP traded around $2.23, while Solana fell 17% over the same period to $138.7.

Lim explains that altcoins typically require “excess liquidity” and “euphoric sentiment” to perform strongly — neither of which is currently present. As a result, he believes an altcoin season is unlikely in the near term.

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LTH Metric Losing Reliability

According to Woo, the commonly used Long-Term Holder (LTH) metric—defined as Bitcoin held for more than five months—has become outdated and increasingly misleading. While the metric once provided valuable insight into market cycles, Woo argues that relying on it today risks distorting the true state of investor activity.

He emphasized that the recent price declines cannot simply be attributed to long-term holders selling. Although he acknowledges that some LTH investors have indeed been offloading BTC, Woo stressed that these coins are not creating excess supply. Instead, they are being rapidly absorbed by new market participants or transferred into the treasuries of institutional players.

Woo described this as a form of custodial rotation, where Bitcoin changes hands without causing destabilizing selling pressure. This shift, according to the analyst, reflects structural maturity in the market rather than weakness.

Potential Upside Within Two Weeks

In a separate update shared on X, Woo highlighted early signs of recovery in Bitcoin’s liquidity indicators. He noted that if this upward trajectory continues, Bitcoin could enter a new upward phase within the next two weeks.

For Woo, improving liquidity signals that the market is gathering strength. This upward momentum, if sustained, could set the stage for a breakout, marking the beginning of a new price expansion phase.

Current Bitcoin (BTC) Market Outlook

Bitcoin is currently trading at $103,438, reflecting a 1.81% daily increase. Price action shows the asset moving within a tightening range, suggesting a period of consolidation. On-chain metrics indicate that major holders remain steady, while the broader market appears to be preparing for a directional shift.

Maintaining levels above $100,000 is seen by many analysts as a key psychological threshold. With liquidity flows gradually improving, the likelihood of an upward move continues to grow. As a result, the upcoming two-week period could prove pivotal for Bitcoin, both technically and structurally, as investors watch for signals of a confirmed trend reversal.

This content does not constitute investment advice.

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Despite Bitcoin breaking the $100,000 record for the first time in crypto history on December 6, Ethereum has been unable to stay above the critical $4,000 psychological threshold.

However, according to a market report published by Bybit and Block Scholes, Ether is expected to start catching up to Bitcoin’s gains following last week’s crypto market deleveraging.

The report indicates that this situation is “indicative of a reset in leveraged long positions.”

Reduced leverage could set Ethereum up for a rally to a new all-time high during the first quarter of next year.

Bybit analysts:

“We expect a new all-time high in the first quarter of 2025.” they said.

They also added, “ETH is showing strength in the derivative markets, and the expectation of a price recovery is progressing at full speed.”

ETH-BTC 6 Months Chart

However, Bitcoin has proven to be a more profitable investment product for 2024. Over the past six months, Bitcoin has risen by more than 54%, while Ethereum has only provided a 12% return on investment.

Ethereum Is Expected To Catch Up To Bitcoin And Reach $8,800

Ethereum may be preparing for a rally above $8,800 based on the ascending triangle formation on the daily chart. This formation is used to predict the continuation of an uptrend.

However, according to popular crypto analyst The Long Investor, Ether needs to break through the critical $4,100 resistance level first.

In a post on X, the analyst wrote:

“If a breakout above $4,100 occurs, the price could reach the all-time high level of $4,865. I am holding $ETH until $8,800.”

Ether Triangle Formation To $8.8k.

Based on Ether’s historical correlation with the Bitcoin halving cycle, ETH may begin to eclipse more of Bitcoin’s momentum in December.

Popular crypto analyst Venture Founder stated in a post on X:

“In every cycle, following the Bitcoin halving, Ethereum underperforms BTC for no more than 8 months and then explodes against BTC.”

Venture Founder continued in the post:

“We are currently in the 8th month. Everything is on track. After the halving, the ETH/BTC ratio typically increases by at least 700%. For this cycle, this means the ETH/BTC ratio could reach 0.39.”

ETH, BTC Ratio Post Halving

Another sign of growing investor interest in Ether is the high number of newly created wallets.

According to market intelligence platform Santiment, over 130,000 Ethereum addresses were created daily on average in December. This marks the highest level in over eight months, last seen in April.

However, other established crypto market participants are setting more conservative price targets.

VanEck predicts a target of $6,000 for Ether and $180,000 for Bitcoin in 2025.

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Renowned analyst Peter Brandt, known for his accurate predictions about Bitcoin, suggested that a price rally may have begun following the anticipated halving. Brandt noted that Bitcoin has completed a reverse expanding triangle formation over the past five months and emphasized the importance of continuity during this process.

The analyst commented, “The rally may have started post-halving. The series of ‘lower highs and lower lows’ that has persisted since March has ended.” In a statement made the previous week, Brandt described Bitcoin as being in a historic breakout phase, referring to it as “the most anticipated and hoped-for breakout in history.”

Peter Brandt also expressed his expectation that Bitcoin could reach as high as $135,000 by August or September 2025. These remarks have generated excitement among cryptocurrency investors and are believed to potentially influence market fluctuations.

The predictions regarding Bitcoin‘s future serve as a significant reference point for investors, and Brandt‘s analysis is closely monitored within the cryptocurrency space.

Bitcoin Rises: Trump’s Election Odds and Spot ETF Investments

Bitcoin continues to trade above $71,000, and this increase is being attributed to the rising likelihood of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s election. Trump had previously promised to make the U.S. a Bitcoin superpower in his statements. This situation has heightened investor interest in Bitcoin and created movement in the markets.

Additionally, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded one of the largest investment inflows in recent days. As of yesterday, a total of $472 million was invested in ETFs, with $308 million coming solely from BlackRock. This investment from BlackRock, combined with the positive market atmosphere, has led to a significant increase in Bitcoin‘s price.

Investors are turning to Bitcoin and other crypto assets, taking into account the possibility of Trump’s reelection, while the large inflows into ETFs further support this trend. Experts suggest that this situation could have a positive impact on Bitcoin‘s future.

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