Traditional Markets Are Surging While Bitcoin Stalls

Colin emphasizes the striking divergence between Bitcoin and traditional assets in recent months. Both gold and major stock indices have climbed to fresh all-time highs, signaling renewed investor confidence across conventional markets. According to the analyst, it would be unusual for Bitcoin to remain out of sync for much longer.

He argues that the significant rallies in gold and equities may eventually influence Bitcoin’s trajectory, especially if long-term correlations begin to reassert themselves. Colin suggests that Bitcoin typically follows major macro momentum shifts with a slight delay.

Using Gold’s Price Cycle as a Roadmap for Bitcoin

One of the most compelling elements of Colin’s analysis is the idea of using gold’s price cycle as a timing model. By examining the period when gold topped out and adjusting the timeline to align with Bitcoin’s market rhythm, the analyst believes a meaningful projection emerges.

According to this model, Bitcoin could form its next cycle top around January 2026. Colin adds that this timeframe is consistent with his earlier independent forecasts, strengthening his confidence in the estimate. However, he also stresses that this is a probabilistic scenario rather than a guaranteed outcome.

Despite Uncertainty, Upside Potential Still Dominates

Colin acknowledges that his model could be incorrect, yet he points to several indicators suggesting that Bitcoin still has substantial room to rise. A notable factor is the current market sentiment. The analyst observes that investor mood has deteriorated significantly in recent weeks, a pattern he describes as typical before major upward moves.

Historically, sharp rallies often emerge from periods of pessimism and low enthusiasm. From Colin’s perspective, Bitcoin’s recent calm may not be a signal of weakness but rather a “calm before the storm,” potentially setting the stage for the next major cycle expansion.

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As 2024 draws to a close, Bitcoin is trading in a critical price range, with monthly support levels under pressure and signs of short-term volatility emerging.

Analysts predict a potential pullback to $90,000, with a deeper correction possible in 2025. The transformation of old support levels into new resistance reinforces the confirmation of a technical downturn.

BTC/USD Daily Chart

On the macroeconomic front, while U.S. unemployment data takes center stage, stagflation concerns are threatening risk assets.

Rising inflation and increasing unemployment risks are causing investors to worry about a scenario similar to the 1970s. The Federal Reserve’s uncertain stance on interest rates further reinforces this outlook.

Bitcoin Bull Market Correction Drawdowns

Despite low market volume, active whale purchases are fueling optimism for positive price movement. Binance’s stablecoin reserves stand at $29.7 billion, maintaining market confidence. However, stablecoins alone are not expected to drive price increases.

In November, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that high reserves alone wouldn’t cause a BTC price surge. Referring to the BTC-stablecoin reserve ratio metric, he told his X followers, “Stablecoins alone cannot provide enough buy-side liquidity for Bitcoin.”

Binance ERC-20 Stablecoin Reserves

Short-term investor profitability is at a critical turning point, with signs of seller exhaustion. Despite declining retail interest towards the end of the year, whales’ accumulation trend increases the likelihood of an unexpected price surge.

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