Arkham Data Confirms the Position of Mechanism Capital Founder

Crypto analytics platform Arkham confirmed the new transaction from the investor’s linked wallet in an April 12 post, stating: “Andrew Kang doubled his Bitcoin position.” The potential profit or loss of the transaction is estimated at $6.8 million.

Kang’s initial move came on April 9, the same day former U.S. President Donald Trump posted on his Truth Social platform, stating, “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT.” That same day, the Trump administration announced a 90-day delay of newly introduced global tariffs, which had previously caused significant disruptions in the markets. The announcement triggered a short-term rally in both crypto and stock markets.

On April 12, Kang shared that this trade war retreat, combined with the emergence of the “Trump effect,” has created the perfect environment for Bitcoin to reverse its months-long downtrend.

On the other hand, on April 11, Senate Democrats submitted an official request to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for an investigation, suspecting insider trading in financial markets following Trump’s statement. The letter argued that Trump’s post served as a “preview of planned policy changes.”

Bitcoin Price Volatile Amid Tariff Confusion

Bitcoin experienced over 2% volatility in the last 24 hours due to conflicting statements from the Trump administration about tariffs on Chinese-made electronic goods. The cryptocurrency dropped to $83,197 during the 24-hour period, giving back weekend gains. However, it later recovered and climbed back to the $85,000 level.

On April 13, Trump clarified on Truth Social that “no tariff exemption was announced” on April 11, Friday, but stated that tariffs on Chinese goods were merely moved to a different tariff category.

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In a recent statement, Kang highlighted that while Bitcoin ETFs opened the door for numerous new investors to allocate Bitcoin in their portfolios, the impact of Ethereum ETFs might be less pronounced.

Kang recalled his bullish stance when BlackRock filed for a Bitcoin ETF while Bitcoin was at the $25,000 level. Since then, Bitcoin has delivered a 2.6x return, while Ethereum has yielded a 2.1x return. From the cycle’s bottom, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have provided a similar 4.0x return.

However, Kang argues that unless Ethereum develops an attractive path to improve its economy, an ETH ETF might not offer substantial benefits.

Referring to Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas, Kang suggested that Ethereum ETF flows could be around 10% of Bitcoin’s. This would translate to real net inflows of $0.5 billion and reported net inflows of $1.5 billion within six months.

Kang’s base case scenario for ETH ETF flows is 15%. Starting from Bitcoin’s real net value of $5 billion, adjusting for Ethereum’s market cap, which is 33% of Bitcoin’s, and a 0.5 access factor, we arrive at $0.84 billion in real net purchases and $2.52 billion in reported net value. Kang also presented an optimistic scenario with real net inflows of $1.5 billion and reported net inflows of $4.5 billion, approximately 30% of Bitcoin’s flows.

According to Kang, in either scenario, the real net purchases are significantly lower than the previous ETF, the futures ETF flows, which amount to $2.4 billion. This, Kang suggests, means that the current market might already be overpricing the Ethereum ETF.

Nonetheless, Kang does not believe Ethereum will plummet to zero. He expects Ethereum to trade between $3,000 and $3,800 before the ETF launch and between $2,400 and $3,000 post-launch. Moreover, if Bitcoin reaches $100,000 by Q4 2025, Ethereum could hit new all-time highs, although the Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio might be lower.

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