Understanding the 40% Price Decline

Bitcoin’s drop from its peak near $126,000 to the $75,000 range represents a decline of roughly 40%. While such a move appears severe at first glance, Pompliano argues that context is critical. In previous market cycles, Bitcoin regularly experienced drawdowns of 70% to 80% during full-fledged bear markets. From this perspective, today’s correction may not fit the traditional definition of a bear phase.

A More Mature Asset With Lower Volatility

A key pillar of Pompliano’s thesis is that Bitcoin has fundamentally evolved. According to his assessment, Bitcoin’s volatility has been reduced by approximately 50% compared to earlier cycles. As volatility declines, so does the magnitude of price swings. This implies that a 40% correction in today’s market environment could be comparable to the deep bear market bottoms of earlier years when volatility was significantly higher.

Institutional Participation Changes the Market Structure

Pompliano emphasizes that Bitcoin is no longer dominated solely by retail investors. Wall Street now plays an active role through spot ETFs, derivatives, and options markets. These instruments allow institutional participants to hedge exposure and implement complex trading strategies, which in turn dampens extreme price movements. As a result, Bitcoin’s behavior increasingly resembles that of a structured financial asset rather than a purely speculative instrument.

From Inflation Fear to Deflation Anxiety

Beyond market mechanics, Pompliano highlights a shift in macroeconomic sentiment. He suggests that the recent decline is less about technical weakness and more about changing expectations. While Bitcoin’s rally toward $126,000 coincided with fears of inflation driven by tariffs and policy uncertainty under a Trump administration narrative, current market pricing reflects reduced inflation concerns and growing deflationary anxiety. As expectations of high inflation fade, demand for Bitcoin as an inflation hedge can temporarily weaken.

Hash Rate Declines and Gold’s Divergence

Addressing concerns around falling Bitcoin hash rate, Pompliano explains that recent declines are largely operational rather than structural. Major North American mining firms reportedly shut down machines during extreme cold weather, selling electricity back to the grid for economic efficiency. He argues this has no lasting negative impact on Bitcoin’s fundamentals.

Meanwhile, gold reaching new highs is attributed to central bank behavior. Pompliano notes that central banks are accumulating gold not as an inflation hedge, but as a way to distance themselves from fiat currencies. Bitcoin, still not recognized as a reserve asset by central banks, has yet to benefit from this trend.

Taken together, Pompliano’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s current drawdown may reflect a transition phase rather than the onset of a traditional bear market.

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ProCap Buys 3,724 Bitcoin Worth $386 Million

ProCap, a Bitcoin financial services firm, announced on Tuesday it has purchased 3,724 Bitcoin for $386 million. The buy comes shortly after revealing a plan to go public later this year through a SPAC merger with Columbus Circle Capital.

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The company acquired the assets at a time-weighted average price of $103,785 per coin. Since the purchase, the value has already risen close to $400 million.

Pompliano explained the firm’s aggressive strategy with a simple phrase: “Bitcoin is the new hurdle rate. If you can’t beat it, you have to buy it.”

Going Public Via SPAC Deal

To go public, ProCap is merging with blank-check company Columbus Circle Capital. The firms have raised more than $750 million to support the deal—$516 million in equity and $235 million in convertible notes.

The merged entity will be named ProCap Financial and plans to use the capital to buy up to $1 billion worth of Bitcoin, joining a growing list of companies building crypto-focused treasuries.

Corporate Bitcoin Buying Trend Accelerates

If ProCap were public today, it would rank 14th among publicly traded companies by Bitcoin holdings, just behind Semler Scientific.

This week alone, firms like Strategy, Metaplanet, Grant Cardone’s company, Panther Metals, and Green Minerals have all added significant Bitcoin holdings. The message from corporate America is becoming clear: Bitcoin is now a core treasury asset.

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Index Holds Firm Amid Crisis

On Sunday, the index posted a score of 60, maintaining its position in the greed zone. This came after Bitcoin dropped 2.8% to $103,000, while Ethereum saw a sharper decline of over 10% during the same period.

Interestingly, the index had registered a much higher 71 just days earlier. Despite the price pullbacks, investor sentiment remains resilient — for now.

Traders Watch Key Support Levels

Crypto analyst Za commented that Bitcoin appears “unbothered” by the geopolitical situation. With $1.74 billion in long positions at stake if the $100,000 psychological level is broken, the coming days will be critical.

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Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETF products saw $1.37 billion in inflows during the past week. In contrast, spot Ethereum ETF funds ended a 19-day inflow streak with $2.1 million in outflows.

Will History Repeat Itself?

In April 2024, following Iran’s direct missile strike on Israel, Bitcoin dropped 8.4%, and the index fell from “Greed” to “Fear” within weeks. If history is any guide, we could see a similar pattern emerge if geopolitical uncertainty persists.

The market’s current resilience may be tested further. Investors are watching closely to see whether confidence can hold — or if fear will take over again.

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Rennick didn’t stop there—he also labeled Bitcoin as a Ponzi scheme, claiming its price will reach $1 million solely because institutions like BlackRock will continue pumping money into a supply-limited asset. “What exactly does it produce?” Rennick asked, answering himself: “Absolutely nothing.”

Bitcoiners Fire Back: ‘You Can’t Eat the Internet Either’

Bitcoin advocates didn’t remain silent. Journalist Laura Shin responded, “You also can’t eat the internet, so do you oppose that too?” while Bitcoin Marathon’s Jimmy Kostro added, “This will age well,” highlighting how outdated and shortsighted Rennick’s comments seemed.

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The Australian Bitcoin Industry Body (ABIB) also issued a formal statement, calling the Senator’s remarks a “deep misunderstanding” of digital assets. “Misunderstanding leads to misrepresentation. And misrepresentation leads to bad policy,” the group warned.

Rennick, however, dismissed the criticism, stating, “It’s pathetic how the Bitcoin community needs reassurance from a politician—the very people they claim they want to be free from.”

Political Attacks on Bitcoin Becoming a Trend

This isn’t an isolated incident. Just weeks ago, Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs vetoed a bill that would have allowed the state to hold Bitcoin in its official reserves, triggering similar outcry. Prominent figures like Anthony Pompliano criticized the decision, asking, “Imagine the ignorance of a politician who thinks they can manage investments.”

As crypto adoption grows globally, so too does the friction between decentralized innovation and traditional political frameworks. And the Bitcoin community appears ready to push back every step of the way.

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Senator and Bitcoin supporter Wendy Rogers, who co-sponsored the bill, reacted strongly: “Bitcoin doesn’t need Arizona. Arizona needs Bitcoin.” The proposal aimed to use seized funds to invest in Bitcoin and create a state-managed crypto reserve.

Crypto Advocates Say Politicians Don’t Understand The Future

Casa co-founder Jameson Lopp responded by saying, “This will age poorly.” Bitcoin advocate Anthony Pompliano commented, “Imagine the ignorance of a politician thinking they can make investment decisions.”

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Attorney Andrew Gordon added, “We need more elected officials who understand that Bitcoin and crypto are the future.” Rogers emphasized that Arizona’s retirement fund already holds MicroStrategy (MSTR) shares, which she described as “basically a leveraged Bitcoin ETF.” The stock rose 32% in April, marking its best performance since November 2024.

Rogers confirmed she would reintroduce the bill in the next legislative session, saying, “Arizona’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill will be back. HODL.”

More States Struggle With Crypto Legislation

Had it passed, Arizona would have become the first U.S. state to create a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. Instead, it joins other states like Oklahoma, Montana, South Dakota, and Wyoming, where similar efforts have stalled or failed.

Prominent crypto critic Peter Schiff supported Hobbs, stating, “Governments shouldn’t use public funds to speculate on cryptocurrencies.”

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Speaking on the April 23 episode of the Coin Stories podcast with Natalie Brunell, Miller explained, “It’s really hard to get people to study again after they graduate.” He stated that it takes an average of 50 hours to grasp the fundamentals of Bitcoin.

Hollywood Rewards Those Who “Do Not Think Differently”

Miller criticized the modern attention span, adding, “When you tell someone it’s going to take 50 hours to learn, they immediately back off. They can’t even watch a Netflix series; even watching ‘White Lotus’ takes seven hours and they can’t handle it,” he said.

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The celebrity also argued that the Hollywood system rewards people who conform rather than those who think differently. Therefore, embracing a radical financial shift like Bitcoin is especially difficult for many celebrities.

At a Bitcoin event hosted by Anthony Pompliano, Miller introduced himself as “probably the only celebrity who is a Bitcoiner,” stating, “I can’t really think of anyone else.”

A Hollywood Movie About the Bitcoin Revolution Is Coming

Although several celebrities, including Iggy Azalea, Caitlyn Jenner, and Hailey Welch, have launched their own memecoins in recent years, Miller has consistently advocated genuine Bitcoin education.

He mentioned telling his friends to invest “just 1,000$” in Bitcoin when it was trading between 8,000$ – 12,000$.

Miller is confident that a Bitcoin Revolution film will eventually be made in Hollywood. However, he notes that the story will be complex because “it didn’t happen all at once.” The gradual rise of Bitcoin over many years will make it interesting to see how the narrative is constructed.

TJ Miller hopes to become a trusted figure in the Bitcoin community and help raise greater cultural awareness about the importance of Bitcoin.

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“Bitcoiners realized early that the numbers were wrong — and they built a strategy to profit if they were right,” Pompliano said in a post on X.,

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He criticized Wall Street’s reliance on government stats like inflation, jobs, and GDP, and noted that even Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent admitted he doesn’t trust the data anymore.

Is Bitcoin Overtaking the Dollar?

Rising fears around Trump-era tariffs are shaking confidence in the U.S. economy. Some analysts believe Bitcoin now has a better survival outlook than the U.S. dollar.

Bitwise’s Jeff Parks recently said, “There’s a higher chance Bitcoin outlives the dollar in our lifetime.” Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index has dropped over 8% in 2025, while Bitcoin surged to over $84,000.

Pompliano concluded: “Most finance conversations today are just regurgitated takes based on bad data. Bitcoiners are ahead of the curve.”

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