Fresh Insights from CryptoQuant

The latest outlook comes from CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler, who based his analysis on the traditional halving-bull cycle model. According to Adler, Bitcoin has not yet entered a bear phase but has transitioned into the final stage of the bull market. His model suggests that the peak could materialize around October or November 2025.

Despite heavy selling pressure, Bitcoin has shown resilience. Adler highlighted that long-term holders offloaded significant volumes at $70,000 in March, followed by additional sales near $98,000 and $117,000. Nevertheless, institutional investors have been absorbing this supply, signaling that bullish momentum remains intact.

Timing the Market Peak: October–November Window

Historically, Adler noted, bull cycle peaks often occur when Bitcoin’s spot price reaches roughly eleven times the average cost basis of long-term investors. Applying this metric, he forecasts that the current cycle could climax in the October–November timeframe, potentially pushing BTC to fresh all-time highs (ATHs).

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Outlook

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $112,286. In the short term, the primary support zone lies between $112,120 – $111,650, while the critical resistance level is positioned at $113,500. A breakout beyond these levels could provide clarity on Bitcoin’s next directional move.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets carry significant risks, and you should conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.

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Record Revenue Amid Bitcoin Rally

On May 27, MARA reported the highest daily revenue in its history. The milestone was confirmed via on-chain data from CryptoQuant, as Bitcoin surged days earlier due to macroeconomic instability, notably in Japan’s bond markets.

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CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju noted, “Quarterly reports are slow. On-chain shows revenue in real time.”

BTC Holdings Top $5 Billion Despite Halving Impact

Despite a 19% drop in Bitcoin production due to the April 2024 halving, MARA’s treasury strategy remains aggressive. With 48,237 BTC now held on its balance sheet — valued at over $5.28 billion — MARA trails only Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) in corporate Bitcoin holdings.

The company’s market cap currently stands at $5.18 billion, making it the largest publicly traded Bitcoin miner globally.

Analysts: More Upside Possible

CryptoQuant’s Axel Adler commented that while daily mining revenues (~$50 million) are still below the historic $80 million peak, there’s potential to climb back to those highs.

MARA adopted Bitcoin as a strategic treasury reserve in July 2024, adding $124 million worth of BTC to its balance sheet, marking a key pivot in its financial strategy.

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Despite signs of holiday-driven market illiquidity that contributed to December’s price correction, Bitcoin analysts are forecasting a near-term recovery rally.

BTC is currently down over 10% from its all-time high of $108,300 recorded on December 17. The world’s first cryptocurrency has been trading below $100,000 since December 19.

BTC/USD, 1 Month Chart

According to Bitfinex analysts, Bitcoin is expected to climb as high as $105,000 in January, though momentum is currently stagnating.

Bitfinex analysts stated, “As investors look to allocate capital across various asset classes, we expect Bitcoin to trade within a narrow range. By the end of January, we expect Bitcoin to move between $95,000 and $110,000.”

The inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on January 20 could be a significant catalyst for cryptocurrency prices. Expectations for the incoming administration include more crypto-friendly regulations and improved economic policies in the U.S.

However, Bitfinex analysts believe Trump’s inauguration may not immediately trigger a crypto rally.

“We expect the new presidency to bring more clarity to crypto policies, but we do not view the inauguration as a major price event; rather, we see it as a precursor to a less obstructed path for crypto in the U.S.”

These predictions follow analysts’ expectations for Bitcoin to rise to $200,000 by 2025. This outlook is supported by the record growth of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with assets under management in these ETFs approaching $110 billion.

Increased Trading Volume Needed for Recovery

Despite the optimistic price trend, BTC remains limited by liquidity shortages due to the holiday season.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler, who wrote that Bitcoin still needs to accumulate more trading volume for a recovery rally above the six-figure mark, stated:

“We lack sufficient trading volume for a strong impulse. Therefore, we are waiting for the market to recover from the holiday season,” wrote Adler in a post on X on January 4.

BTC saw a daily trading volume of $66.7 million on January 3, which is 91% lower than the $743 million recorded on December 5 when it first surpassed the $100,000 mark.

Still, analysts remain optimistic about BTC’s trajectory in 2025, with predictions ranging from $160,000 to $200,000. These expectations are based on the growing risk appetite among investors, fueled by anticipated improvements in U.S. financial policy.

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