A Post-Halving Peak That Looked Different

Cowen argues that Bitcoin reached its cyclical high in the final quarter of 2025, aligning with historical post-halving behavior. However, this cycle diverged sharply from previous peaks. Unlike 2017 and 2021, when euphoric retail participation dominated market sentiment, the latest high formed under far more subdued conditions.

Retail engagement, speculative breadth, and social activity failed to reach extreme levels despite Bitcoin setting new highs. Cowen notes that this structure closely resembles the market environment seen in mid-2019, when Bitcoin rallied significantly without triggering widespread speculative mania.

Choppy Pullbacks Instead of a Sharp Collapse

One key takeaway from Cowen’s analysis is that peaks driven by market apathy do not necessarily lead to deep or prolonged bear markets. In 2019, Bitcoin’s decline was relatively contained compared to the extended drawdowns that followed earlier euphoric tops.

That pattern may repeat. Rather than a single, decisive sell-off, Cowen expects uneven price action characterized by repeated countertrend rallies. Such conditions often create confusion for investors, as short-term recoveries can appear convincing without marking a true trend reversal.

Macroeconomic Conditions Limit Upside Potential

Beyond market structure, Cowen highlights the broader macroeconomic backdrop as a limiting factor for Bitcoin’s upside. While global growth is showing signs of slowing, the slowdown has not been severe enough to prompt aggressive liquidity expansion.

Without a meaningful increase in global liquidity, risk assets like Bitcoin may struggle to attract sustained inflows. As a result, the overall risk-reward balance continues to favor capital preservation rather than aggressive accumulation.

Structural Reset Still Needed

Cowen emphasizes that his assessment is not a short-term price forecast. He acknowledges that rallies can and likely will occur, and certain assets may outperform along the way. However, until liquidity conditions improve, investor participation broadens, and on-chain metrics reset, Bitcoin’s structural upside remains constrained.

Taken together, the outlook suggests that 2026 is more likely to be a period of digestion and consolidation than a year defined by new all-time highs.

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Bitcoin Must Lead the Way

According to Cowen, any meaningful rally in altcoins is contingent upon Bitcoin (BTC) reaching new highs. He explained that if Bitcoin continues to climb through the fourth quarter, while monetary tightening ends and rate cuts begin, the alt/BTC pairs could experience a notable rebound.

“If Bitcoin rallies into the fourth quarter while alt/BTC pairs remain near their lows and the Fed ends its tightening cycle, we could see a strong surge in altcoins,” Cowen noted.

The Ideal Window: November to December

Cowen pointed out that historically, major altcoin movements tend to occur toward the end of the year, particularly in November and December. Referring to past market cycles in 2017, 2023, and 2024, he stated that the November-to-December window could once again align with the start of a new phase in the alt/BTC market.

Two Possible Outcomes

Cowen sees two potential scenarios unfolding:

1. A late-year rally that sparks an altcoin season.

2. A delayed cycle, pushing the next major altcoin run to 2026.

In both cases, he expects Bitcoin dominance to continue rising and advises investors to maintain a heavier weighting toward BTC in their portfolios.

“Why Hold Altcoins?”

Cowen emphasized that altcoins tend to underperform Bitcoin in both bullish and bearish market phases. “If altcoins continue to lose ground against Bitcoin, why hold them? Bitcoin offers lower downside risk and strong upside potential,” he said.

Ultimately, Cowen believes that as monetary tightening comes to an end and interest rates start to decline, conditions will gradually improve for altcoins. Until then, he concludes, “liquidity should flow to the king — Bitcoin.”

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Lessons From Previous Market Cycles

Looking back at Bitcoin’s past, Cowen highlighted how severe the declines have been in earlier cycles:

• Around 94% during the first major cycle

• Roughly 87% in the second cycle

• About 77% in the most recent one

While this doesn’t guarantee that the next pullback will reach 70%, Cowen emphasizes that history is a reminder for investors to remain cautious.

From $250K to $75K?

Some Bitcoin proponents, including BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, predict that BTC could climb to $250,000 by the end of the year. However, if Cowen’s projection plays out, such a peak could be followed by a steep decline toward the $75,000 range.

Cowen explained that if Bitcoin surges strongly in Q4, he would likely lock in profits and move into stablecoins—potentially waiting until mid-2026 before re-entering the market.

Spotting the Market Top Won’t Be Easy

Cowen warned that a final rally could still be ahead, but pinpointing the exact top is nearly impossible:

“Everyone will be euphoric at the peak, and no one will say, ‘this is the top.’”

This sentiment highlights how quickly momentum can shift, often catching overconfident investors off guard.

Ethereum’s Brighter Outlook Toward Cycle End

While warning of a possible deep correction for Bitcoin, Cowen sees a more favorable setup for Ethereum (ETH) as the cycle matures.

He noted that ETH might underperform BTC in the short term but is likely to outshine Bitcoin toward the end of the cycle. The ETH/BTC ratio has already gained more than 8.5% over the past 30 days, reflecting growing strength.

What Other Experts Are Saying

Not all market watchers share Cowen’s cautious outlook. A range of industry leaders have put forward their own forecasts:

• Matt Hougan (Bitwise CIO): Expects 2026 to be an up year for Bitcoin.

• Steven McClurg (Canary Capital CEO): Believes BTC could rise to the $140K–$150K range this year before a bear market arrives in 2026.

• Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy Executive Chairman): Declared earlier this year that “crypto winter is not coming back.”

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Cowen said in a July 19 post on X, referring to the September 2022 Merge, which turned Ethereum to its present proof-of-stake consensus model, “If the supply of ETH keeps increasing by ~60k/month like it has been since April, then by Dec the supply will be back to what it was at the merge.”

Ethereum becomes deflationary after the Merge; its supply dropped by around 455,000 ETH by April 2024. Still, the supply has lately grown by about 150,000 ETH. Cowen projects that by December Ethereum’s supply will return to pre-Merge levels if current trend continues.

Potential Price Effect

Cowen speculates that the novelty of spot ETH ETFs might fade, maybe resulting in a price drop. “If it follows 2016, then ETH/BTC final capitulation will not start until September 2024, which would be plenty time for the novelty of the spot ETF relative to BTC to possibly wear off,” he said.

Cowen cautions of a “decent chance” of a drop during the next “3-6 months,” even while Ether’s price will probably be greater in 1.5 years. CoinMarketCap data shows Ether trading at $3,506 at the time of publishing.

Supply Crisis and Onchain Analysis

Additionally drawing attention to a possible “supply crisis” for Ethereum is onchain expert Leon Waidmann. Waidmann said in a July 16 article, “Exchange balances down to 10.2% while 39.3% of ETH is locked in smart contracts” therefore highlighting a limited supply issue that many investors may not completely understand.

Upcoming Spot Ethereum ETFs

Notwithstanding these issues, five spot Ethereum ETFs are scheduled to start trading on the Chicago Board Options Exchange on July 23, subject to regulatory clearance. Approved rule amendments allowing the filing of several spot Ether ETFs on May 23 by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)

Among the ETFs slated for introduction are the 21Shares Core Ethereum ETF, Fidelity Ethereum Fund, Invesco Galaxy Ethereum ETF, VanEck Ethereum ETF, and Franklin Ethereum ETF.

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