The analysis team, led by Gautam Chhugani, emphasizes that today’s market conditions differ significantly from prior crypto downturns. Unlike earlier cycles marked by widespread insolvencies, cascading failures, and structural breakdowns, the current pullback lacks signs of systemic stress.

Bitcoin’s $150,000 Target Remains Intact

Bernstein analysts reaffirm their long-standing expectation that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by the end of 2026. They stress that recent price declines should not be interpreted as evidence of a failing ecosystem. Instead, the downturn is attributed primarily to a temporary loss of investor confidence rather than underlying structural risks.

In previous bear markets, sharp sell-offs were often triggered by major bankruptcies, critical infrastructure failures, or deep cracks in market plumbing. None of those conditions are present today, according to Bernstein. The analysts describe the current environment as one shaped more by cautious sentiment and subdued risk appetite than by fundamental weaknesses.

Media Narratives and the Return of “Bitcoin Is Dead”

Bernstein also highlights the resurgence of negative media narratives surrounding Bitcoin. Headlines declaring the asset’s demise have once again gained traction, even as attention across financial media increasingly shifts toward artificial intelligence themes.

The analysts argue that this change in focus has contributed to fading interest in crypto markets. They also push back against claims that emerging technological risks—such as quantum computing—pose a unique threat to Bitcoin. In their view, such risks apply broadly across all digital infrastructure, not exclusively to cryptocurrencies.

Why Bitcoin Lags Gold in Tight Liquidity Conditions

According to Bernstein, Bitcoin continues to trade as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than a full-fledged safe haven. In an environment defined by restrictive monetary policy and elevated interest rates, capital has flowed toward assets like gold and select artificial intelligence stocks, leaving Bitcoin under pressure.

However, the firm does not see this dynamic as permanent. Bernstein expects that easing liquidity conditions could reignite demand through spot Bitcoin ETFs and renewed corporate accumulation. While Bitcoin has not yet achieved definitive safe-haven status, analysts believe its long-term positioning continues to strengthen.

Overall, Bernstein’s assessment suggests that the current market phase represents a pause driven by confidence, not a breakdown driven by risk. From this perspective, Bitcoin’s upside potential remains firmly in place once broader financial conditions stabilize.

This content does not constitute investment advice.

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Unlike previous cycles driven largely by retail speculation, today’s market is increasingly defined by professional investors, exchange-traded products, and long-term capital. This shift has transformed both the depth of corrections and the pace of recoveries.

Institutional Capital Redefines Market Behavior

One of the clearest signals of this transition comes from recent correction data. Even after a price pullback of roughly thirty percent, outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds remained limited to around five percent. For Bernstein, this suggests that institutional conviction remains largely intact even during periods of volatility.

With more than eight hundred billion dollars in assets under management, the firm believes that institutional activity now plays a stabilizing role. Sharp retail-driven sell-offs that once triggered deep crashes appear to have a far weaker impact under the current market structure.

Updated Price Outlook for 2026 and 2027

Bernstein’s medium-term projections reflect this new confidence. Analysts now view one hundred fifty thousand dollars as a realistic price target for Bitcoin in 2026. Beyond that, they expect the broader bull market to extend into 2027, with a potential cycle peak forming near two hundred thousand dollars.

This outlook marks a clear departure from the historical pattern tied closely to halving events. Rather than a compressed four-year rhythm, Bernstein envisions a longer and more gradual expansion supported by sustained institutional demand.

A Bold Long-Term Projection Toward 2033

The firm’s vision extends well beyond the next crypto market cycle. Bernstein continues to maintain its long-term scenario in which Bitcoin could approach one million dollars by 2033. This outlook is built on the assumption that global inflation pressures, declining trust in fiat systems, and expanding digital asset adoption will persist over the next decade.

From this perspective, Bitcoin is increasingly viewed not only as a speculative instrument but also as a macro-level hedge within global portfolios.

A Market Structure in Transition

In summary, Bernstein argues that Bitcoin and crypto currencies are evolving into a core financial asset rather than remaining a purely speculative vehicle. As institutional participation deepens, extreme boom-and-bust patterns appear to be giving way to longer, more structurally supported growth phases. Whether this new model fully replaces the old cycle framework will become clearer in the coming years.

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Crypto Supercycle

Bernstein maintains its long-term thesis: the current crypto upswing may persist until 2027, despite a brief cooling period. The firm cites supportive U.S. policies, accelerating institutional adoption, and the market expanding beyond Bitcoin as key drivers. Analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra forecast a long and tiring cycle maintaining momentum until 2026, with a peak likely a year later.

Policy, Adoption, and Market Breadth

According to Bernstein, U.S. leadership is operating in mission-critical mode to establish the country as a crypto capital, creating a long runway for digital assets. In the next phase, the market will extend beyond Bitcoin, with Ethereum, Solana, and DeFi tokens driving inflows to trading platforms and stablecoin issuers. The overall takeaway is a supercycle characterized by deep liquidity, policy clarity, and market breadth, inviting large investors to participate.

Stablecoins and Circle

Bernstein keeps Circle’s target price at $230. USDC supply is projected to rise from $68 billion in 2026 to $99 billion, and then to $173 billion in 2027. USDC is expected to serve as a liquidity backbone for DeFi, while bank and payment partnerships will offset interest rate sensitivity. Circle’s payment-focused Arc blockchain and increasing on-chain settlement share stand out as differentiating factors, ensuring inflows to platforms and issuers continue through 2027 as the market expands beyond Bitcoin.

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The Rising Role of Ethereum and Coinbase

Bernstein notes that Ethereum’s native token ETH has surged 80% since June 5. This growth has been fueled by Circle’s (CRCL) listing and the market’s increasing recognition that the majority of stablecoins are minted on the Ethereum network.

Coinbase operates Base, one of the largest Layer 2 chains built on Ethereum. Processing over 9 million transactions daily, Base supports stablecoin transfers, trading, financial applications, and consumer-oriented services.

Base and ETH Revenue Potential

Although Base does not have its own native token, transaction fees are paid in ETH. This positions Coinbase to earn an estimated $75 million in annual revenue. Furthermore, Base has become a leading chain for token deployments. By integrating all Base tokens into its main exchange platform, Coinbase has significantly boosted trading activity, increasing ETH-denominated commission revenues.

Strengthening Its Position in the Ethereum Ecosystem

With the launch of the Base App, Coinbase now offers users a wallet to buy, sell, store, and transfer crypto — including stablecoin payments — more easily. Additionally, the company holds an Ethereum treasury of 136,782 ETH, valued at around $590 million.

According to Coinbase’s Q2 earnings report, trading fees in July rose by approximately 40% compared to the quarterly average, driven by increased ETH trading volume. This surge highlights both the broader excitement around Ethereum and Coinbase’s direct potential to benefit from the ecosystem’s growth.

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The US Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday at 21:00 GMT. While the expectation of a 25 basis point cut stands out strongly, it is thought that this cut could create an increase in the value of risky assets.

Analysts at Bernstein, which manages more than $750 billion in assets worldwide, emphasized the DeFi world in their latest report. The report tated that DeFi returns have become attractive again and that this situation could revitalize crypto credit markets.

Analysts predict that stablecoin returns in the DeFi sector could outpace US money market funds. If this happens, they say, returns could exceed 5%, which could push crypto prices of DeFi projects higher.

Might interest you: What is Fractal Coin?

Bernstein analysts announced that they have removed two tokens from their crypto portfolio and added AAVE, one of the largest DeFi lending protocols. The coins that are leaving the portfolio include SNX (Synthetix) and GMX.

Other crypto assets still in the portfolio are: BTC (Bitcoin), ETH (Ethereum), OP (Optimism), ARB (Arbitrum), POL (Polygon), LDO (Lido), SOL (Solana), UNI (Uniswap), LINK (Chainlink), and RON (Ronin).

As you may recall, before the 2021 bull season, DeFi tokens experienced a major rise in the period called “DeFi summer”. During that period, protocols such as AAVE, UNI, SNX and Compound in particular gained value. However, today’s prices are well below the levels of that period.

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An analyst’s positive assessment indicating a stock will surpass its market or sector performance is known as an outperform rating. On the other hand, a market performance rating is a neutral evaluation expressing the predicted average performance.

Five main criteria form the foundation of the assessments: production and hash rate, operational and energy efficiency, power, hash costs, and the artificial intelligence strategy of every organization.

Bernstein claims that Marathon, Core Scientific, and CleanSpark are the three biggest bitcoin generators; the latter two particularly stand out with their realized hash rates. Riot is trailing in output and efficiency at the same time; last month, power credits helped to mitigate this.

Regarding operational and energy efficiency, Bernstein asserts CleanSpark and IREN “are in the sweet spots of energy efficiency and realized hash rate/uptime.” By switching to a self-mining approach, Marathon is also seen by the analysts as enhancing its uptime efficiency.

Regarding operating power capacity, Bernstein pointed out Riot and Core Scientific. IREN may, however, catch up going forward since it apparently “has two mega sites in the works” in Texas.

Thanks mostly to low power costs and good uptime, Core Scientific is also the “best in class” when it comes to hash cost. While Marathon keeps striving to lower its hash cost, Riot and CleanSpark lead Core Scientific in this measure.

Lastly, having committed large funds to data centers, Core Scientific is “a clear leader on AI strategy,” Bernstein notes. Thanks to its Texas mega sites being open for agreements with AI hyperscalers and the hire of Morgan Stanley to investigate AI deals for these sites, the analysts found IREN to be “a promising” narrative regarding AI/HPC.

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Following the change in Polymarket odds and polls in Harris’s favor, the broker observed that bitcoin has lost value, so it expects the world’s biggest cryptocurrency to “remain rangebound until there is a clearer election signal.” Republicans have referred to this as the “initial honeymoon phase” and contend that polymarket odds are easily manipulated, the newspaper added.

Trump’s side has been extremely outspoken about its crypto policy, Bernstein observes, and has interacted with businesses in the industry, bitcoin (BTC) miners, as well as the larger community.

“The Trump-led Republican side has made a strong pitch to crypto voters by promising favorable policy for bitcoin and crypto innovation, even teasing a potential national bitcoin reserve,” analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said.

In a speech last month at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, former President Trump promised to keep a strategic national bitcoin reserve and declared he would never sell the government’s seized bitcoin should he be elected once more.

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Bernstein’s research unit is focusing on Bitcoin miners and their data centers, which are increasingly being used for artificial intelligence (AI). The firm said it will be issuing reports to its clients on these miners, starting with IREN and Core Scientific.

“Data center operations and energy access…”

The report, signed by Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra, highlights the AI agreements and work of the two companies, stating:

“Bitcoin miners are beginning to be seen as valuable partners in terms of energy access, management, and the establishment of AI data centers. The approval process for building new energy facilities from scratch can take over 4 years. Bitcoin miners, on the other hand, can gain access to energy connections in a much shorter timeframe. This saves the market significant time.”

The analysts cited Core Scientific’s $3.5 billion deal with AI firm CoreWeave and IREN’s agreement to supply Nvidia GPUs to AI startup Poolside as the main reasons for adding the two companies to coverage.

It is worth noting that both companies were on the brink of bankruptcy in the 2022 crypto crash. Core Scientific filed for bankruptcy and underwent restructuring before resuming operations.

In addition to adding the two mining companies to coverage, Bernstein also reiterated its Bitcoin price forecasts of $200,000 by the end of 2025, $500,000 by the end of 2029, and $1 million by the end of 2033.

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