On-chain data shows that the Short-Term Holder (STH) Bollinger Band oscillator, which measures the gap between Bitcoin’s price and the cost basis of wallets holding BTC for less than 155 days, has plunged into deep oversold territory. In simple terms, Bitcoin is trading well below what recent buyers paid, beyond normal volatility, a signal historically aligned with macro bottoms.

2018 Rally Setup

A similar oversold signal appeared in late 2018 and preceded a roughly 150% rally within a year, eventually leading to a 1,900% increase over three years. The same indicator also flashed ahead of the November 2022 bottom, preceding a 700% rally to near $126,270.

Since October 2025, when Bitcoin peaked near $126,500, the asset has lost more than 50% of its value, dropping to around $60,000. The market is now on track for a fifth consecutive weekly loss—the first time since the March-May 2022 period. Monthly losses have also piled up for five straight months since October, marking the second-longest declining streak after the six-month drop between 2018 and 2019.

Bitcoin vs. Gold

Against gold, Bitcoin has underperformed for seven consecutive months, representing one of the longest stretches of weak performance in the BTC/Gold pair.

Wells Fargo strategist Ohsung Kwon noted to CNBC that higher-than-expected US tax refunds in 2026 could funnel roughly $150 billion into equities and Bitcoin. That could absorb remaining sell pressure and increase the chances of Bitcoin bottoming in the coming weeks.

Short-term holder stress is easing, whales haven’t capitulated yet, and liquidity may flow in by the end of March. Conditions for a rebound are gradually forming, though volatility remains high and sudden price swings are still possible.

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As debate over Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory intensifies, Jan3 founder Samson Mow has offered a Musk-centered projection that stands out for its timing rather than its certainty. Mow suggests that 2026 could represent a clear break in Elon Musk historically cautious relationship with Bitcoin. The claim is being read not as a simple investment call, but as a signal that market sentiment may pivot around timing rather than price alone.

In a brief post shared on X over the weekend, Mow implied that Musk could make a large-scale Bitcoin move. While no explicit roadmap was offered, the emphasis on 2026 appeared deliberate. Coming after years of aggressive crypto predictions that failed to materialize, the comment sparked cautious curiosity rather than outright enthusiasm.

Elon Musk Historically Distant Bitcoin Stance

Musk’s interest in cryptocurrencies is well documented, but Bitcoin has always occupied an uneasy position. Tesla’s decision in May 2021 to halt Bitcoin payments over environmental concerns became the clearest symbol of that distance. This was followed in July 2022 by the company selling %75 of its Bitcoin holdings, reinforcing skepticism around any renewed commitment.

Still, Mow argues that 2026 presents a different equation. Energy infrastructure shifts, improvements in mining efficiency, and mounting macroeconomic pressures are quietly rearranging the backdrop against which Musk’s decisions are made.

A Seven-Figure Bitcoin Scenario

Mow is known for his bullish outlook on Bitcoin’s long-term value. He has repeatedly suggested that Bitcoin could reach seven-figure territory by 2026. Based on CoinMarketCap data, his previously cited $1.33 million target would represent a %1,367 increase from current levels.

According to Mow, this outlook is not driven solely by retail speculation. He points to the growing possibility of nation-states evaluating Bitcoin as a reserve asset—an evolution he believes could bend the price curve away from gradual appreciation toward sudden repricing. He has previously described this transition as a move “from incremental growth to abrupt repricing.”

Why Bitcoin continues to rise remains a frequent question. Limited supply and expanding institutional interest are often cited first. Yet many observers believe the real pressure comes from less visible state-level interest and the expectations it creates. Even so, this backdrop does not guarantee a smooth or uninterrupted climb in the short term.

Not Everyone Shares the Same Conviction

Mow’s confidence is not universally shared. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has outlined a more measured outlook for the coming decade, suggesting solid returns are plausible without extreme price spikes. In the wake of repeatedly missed high-end forecasts, this restraint has resonated with a segment of the market.

Figures like Arthur Hayes and Tom Lee have previously argued that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025—predictions that persisted even during market pullbacks.

Other Notable Forecasts From Mow

Mow’s 2026 thesis extends beyond Bitcoin alone. Among his other notable expectations:

• Strategy (MSTR) shares reaching $5,000

• Bitcoin outperforming gold and silver

• At least one country issuing Bitcoin-backed bonds

When pressed about the accuracy of his past predictions, Mow tends to deflect. Asked how many had played out as expected, his answer was brief and revealing: “Let’s not look back.”

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