In periods like this, price usually does not search for direction immediately. It searches for a floor first.

Loss of $79,000 shifted market structure into defense

The True Market Mean represents the average cost basis of the active BTC supply and currently sits near $79,000. Falling below this level means the average investor cost basis is now above market price. This shift is not only technical, but behavioral.

In previous cycles, similar breakdowns were followed by extended consolidation phases moving toward the Realized Price. Today, that level stands near $54,900. This metric reflects the average acquisition cost of all circulating Bitcoin and is widely considered a long-term structural equilibrium level.

As a result, the current structure is defined between two key reference points: $79,000 as resistance and $54,900 as structural support. Medium-term market behavior is now largely forming within this corridor.

$60,000–$69,000 emerges as critical defense zone

Glassnode’s cost basis distribution data shows heavy investor positioning between $60,000 and $69,000. This zone was established during the consolidation phase in the first half of 2024, and most positions from that period remain intact.

This creates an important stabilization mechanism. Investors tend to avoid aggressive selling near their cost basis. That behavior slows downside momentum.

Recent price action confirms this structure. Selling pressure continues, but there is no uncontrolled breakdown. Instead, the market is transitioning into a sideways consolidation phase.

Accumulation exists, but strong buying has not returned

The Accumulation Trend Score provides clearer insight into investor behavior. This metric had previously fallen below 0.1, reflecting strong distribution. Recent readings show a recovery to approximately 0.43.

This indicates that selling pressure has eased. However, strong accumulation phases typically begin when this metric rises above 0.8. Current levels suggest a neutral balance rather than aggressive accumulation.

In simple terms, investors have stopped selling aggressively. But they have not started buying aggressively either.

This explains why the market has not yet produced a strong recovery.

ETF outflows increase structural pressure

Institutional demand has also weakened. Net flows across spot Bitcoin ETFs have turned negative again. What previously acted as consistent structural support has shifted into net outflows.

Spot market data shows a similar pattern. The Cumulative Volume Delta indicator confirms that sell-side pressure remains dominant. This reflects limited organic buying strength.

In environments like this, price typically moves sideways rather than upward, as sustained demand is required to support a strong rally.

Panic fades in derivatives market

Options market data shows that volatility levels have declined, indicating that the panic phase has largely passed. The drop in implied volatility suggests that expectations of an immediate crash have eased.

However, this does not signal renewed bullish conviction. Funding rates and derivatives positioning still reflect cautious sentiment.

The market is no longer in panic mode. But confidence has not returned either.

Bitcoin is searching for balance as direction remains unclear

Taken together, Glassnode data shows Bitcoin is currently in a transition phase. The loss of the True Market Mean weakened structural positioning. ETF outflows and weak spot demand continue to limit recovery.

At the same time, selling pressure has not become disorderly. The $60,000–$69,000 range continues to function as a key stabilization zone.

For a sustained recovery to develop, three conditions will likely be required: stronger spot demand, renewed ETF inflows, and clear accumulation from large investors.

Until those conditions emerge, Bitcoin is likely to continue moving within the defensive range defined between approximately $54,900 and $79,000, which remains the dominant structural framework according to current on-chain data.

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Bitcoin Is Warming Up for a New Rally: 3 Scenarios by Axel Adler

In his May 1 analysis, Adler examined three potential trends for Bitcoin over the next six months. He emphasized that the on-chain momentum is currently flashing “start” signals. The detailed analysis, published on CryptoQuant.com, breaks down the scenarios as follows:

Optimistic Scenario (Bullish)

If the Ratio breaks through 1.0 and holds above it, key on-chain indicators like NUPL and MVRV could reflect a new upward impulse. In this case, Bitcoin price could reach the $150K–$175K range, mirroring the cycle logic of 2017 and 2021.

Base Case Scenario (Consolidation)

If the Ratio stays within the 0.8–1.0 range, the market may continue in a sideways trend within a wide price corridor. In this scenario, the price is expected to range between $90K–$110K, with participants maintaining their positions but avoiding increased exposure.

Pessimistic Scenario (Correction)

If the Ratio drops to 0.75+, short-term holders might begin taking profits, potentially triggering a price correction to the $70K–$85K range. However, Adler notes that a correction has already occurred, making this scenario less likely.

BTC Rally and Its Impact on the Altcoin Market

In 2025, Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) hit 64%, reaching its highest levels of the year and significantly delaying altcoin recovery.

Between January and April 2025, Bitcoin dominance increased by 13%. During this period, the altcoin market cap (excluding BTC and ETH) dropped from $1.13 trillion to $817 billion, resulting in a $300 billion (~28%) decline.

Notably, altcoins outside the top 10 cryptocurrencies showed signs of recovery around the $200 billion support zone from 2024.

If the market repeats previous cycles, a breakout above the 50-week moving average (50WMA) could push altcoins toward the $500 billion resistance zone.

Additionally, in the past three months, a few altcoins outperformed BTC, including Fartcoin (+8%), PancakeSwap (CAKE, +2.8%), and Monero (XMR, +19%). During the same period, Bitcoin dropped by 10%.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post CryptoQuant Analyst Outlines 3 Bitcoin Scenarios: Optimistic Scenario Points to $150K–$175K! appeared first on Coin Engineer.

– Bitcoin (BTC): The BTC/USD pair is currently trading at $47,000 with a 0.10% decrease at the time of writing. Resistance levels for BTC are in the range of $48,000 to $51,000, while support levels are between $43,650 and $42,400.

– Ethereum (ETH): The ETH/USDT pair is experiencing a 1.04% decrease, trading at $2,306 at the time of writing. ETH has resistance levels in the range of $2,386 to $2,542, with support levels between $2,150 and $2,077.

– Celestia (TIA): The TIA/USD pair has seen a 13.87% increase, currently trading at $16.19. Resistance levels for TIA are between $16.59 and $17.30, with support levels in the range of $14.30 to $12.98.

-Perpetual Protocol (PERP): The PERP/USD pair is experiencing a 5.46% decrease, trading at $1.18. PERP has resistance levels between $1.29 and $1.51, with support levels in the range of $1.07 to $0.76.

– Injective (INJ): The INJ/USD pair has seen a 4.65% increase, currently trading at $44.25. INJ has resistance levels between $49.46 and $52.04, with support levels in the range of $40.40 to $37.78.

The post Latest Situation in Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies! – January 9 appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Bitcoin, with a sharp decline yesterday, dropped to levels around $43,190. However, with the positive atmosphere in the market following today’s ETF news, it started to rise again and surpassed the $47,000 price tag.

The drop yesterday caused uncertainty in the market. However, today’s Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) news increased investor confidence and revived demand for Bitcoin. With these positive developments, the Bitcoin price quickly recovered and reached levels around $47,000.

Fluctuations in the cryptocurrency markets usually occur based on news and the general atmosphere in the market. Investors can quickly react to market developments by closely monitoring the news flow.

However, changes in cryptocurrency prices are generally based on volatility and involve risks for investors. Therefore, it is important to conduct thorough research and stay updated on current developments before investing in the market.

The upward breakout of the rising channel formation by Bitcoin today represents a significant development. The average target determined points to the $51,000 level, but before reaching this point, it needs to break above and strengthen the $48,235 resistance level.

During this process, as the price approaches the $51,000 level, it should be considered that a potential risky zone may be entered. Therefore, it is believed to be important to take profit as the price rises. Additionally, it should be noted that the “sell the news” event following the ETF approval could trigger significant selling.

Looking at the lower side in the chart analysis, support levels between $45,000 and $40,750 stand out. These levels can be considered as areas where the price may hold in case of possible corrections.

The post Bitcoin Reached Above $47,000!! Is ETF Approved?? appeared first on Coin Engineer.

The current value of Bitcoin is around $860 billion. However, this value is relatively small compared to the global investment potential. For example, the total investment in stocks worldwide is valued at $108 trillion. The market value of gold is around $12.8 trillion.

But the most noteworthy point is the massive asset management companies applying for Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Particularly, under the management of BlackRock, there is $10.2 trillion in assets. This figure, combined with other companies, surpasses a total of $20 trillion. The interest of these companies in Bitcoin indicates significant potential for the future of the cryptocurrency market.

The post Bitcoin’s Value Potential and Goals! appeared first on Coin Engineer.

The current situation in Bitcoin and popular altcoins is as follows: Bitcoin (BTC) continues to maintain its existing range structure, with an upper resistance level of $44,700 and a lower support level of $40,200. The market has been moving sideways, mainly due to the anticipation of ETF announcements and the weekend. In order for the market to sustain its upward momentum, we need to see closures above the $44,700 level. The presence of open liquidity in the lower range suggests that the price may aim for the lower support. The increase in Bitcoin dominance appears to be the main reason behind the pullback observed in altcoins.

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