Following the rally, Schiff shared his perspective on the market, arguing that the latest upward movement should not be interpreted as the beginning of a sustainable bullish trend.

Schiff Questions the Strength of the Rally

According to Peter Schiff, the recent rise in Bitcoin’s price does not signal a structural change in the market. Instead, he believes the move represents a temporary rebound within a broader downward trend.

Schiff described the price action as a classic “dead cat bounce,” a term often used in financial markets to refer to a short-lived recovery during a prolonged decline. In such situations, an asset may experience brief upward movements before continuing its broader downward trajectory.

From his perspective, investors should be cautious about interpreting these short-term rallies as evidence that a new bull market has begun.

Gold Versus Bitcoin Debate Continues

Schiff also used the opportunity to revisit his long-standing comparison between Bitcoin and gold. During the same period that Bitcoin experienced its price surge, gold prices reportedly saw a modest pullback.

This divergence may have influenced some investors to rotate capital from gold into Bitcoin. However, Schiff believes that this reaction could be a misinterpretation of market signals.

In his view, more experienced investors—often referred to as “smart money”—are approaching the situation differently. Schiff argued that these investors may be using Bitcoin’s upward moves as opportunities to sell, while treating temporary declines in gold as potential buying opportunities.

Comments on the U.S. Economic Outlook

Beyond cryptocurrency markets, Schiff also commented on the recent performance of the U.S. economy. He noted that the country’s economy grew by approximately 2.1% in 2025, which he considers weaker compared to the previous year.

For comparison, Schiff pointed out that economic growth in 2024 was reported at around 2.8%. Based on this difference, he argued that the more recent growth figures indicate a slowdown relative to the earlier period.

According to Schiff, shifts in macroeconomic performance can play an important role in shaping investor sentiment and financial market expectations.

Ongoing Debate in the Crypto Market

Bitcoin’s climb toward the $74,000 level has been interpreted by many market participants as a sign of resilience and potential recovery. Nevertheless, critics such as Schiff remain unconvinced that the rally reflects a lasting change in the market structure.

This ongoing divide highlights the broader debate surrounding Bitcoin’s role in global finance. While some investors view it as a long-term store of value, others continue to question its sustainability and treat rallies with caution.

Also, you can freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, please follow us on our Telegram, YouTube and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Peter Schiff Says Rally of Bitcoin Is Just a “Dead Cat Bounce” appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Edwards also pointed out a common mistake among investors: the constant attempt to perfectly identify the market bottom. In his view, Bitcoin’s present price structure indicates that the asset is positioned closer to long-term support areas than to previous market peaks, suggesting that valuations may already reflect a significant portion of downside risk.

A Key Valuation Range for Bitcoin

One of the analytical frameworks Edwards highlighted involves Bitcoin’s production cost model. This model evaluates the cost of mining Bitcoin and uses it as a benchmark for understanding long-term value.

Based on this approach, Edwards noted that the $50,000 to $60,000 range represents a meaningful value zone for Bitcoin. Historically, mining costs have often aligned with key support levels in the market, making them a useful indicator when evaluating price floors.

While these levels do not guarantee immediate upside, they may indicate that Bitcoin is trading within a historically attractive valuation band relative to its underlying production economics.

Quantum Computing Concerns

A particularly notable part of Edwards’ discussion focused on the potential implications of quantum computing for Bitcoin’s long-term security model. He argued that the topic has not yet received the level of attention it may deserve within the Bitcoin development community.

According to Edwards, some institutional investors have already expressed caution regarding this technological uncertainty. The possibility that future quantum computing breakthroughs could challenge existing cryptographic standards has led certain market participants to limit or reconsider their Bitcoin allocations.

He suggested that until the ecosystem begins implementing clear quantum-resistant solutions, the uncertainty could act as a psychological barrier preventing Bitcoin from reaching new all-time highs.

The Role of Macro Liquidity

Edwards also emphasized that macroeconomic conditions remain a major driver of cryptocurrency markets. In particular, potential interest rate cuts in the United States and expansionary fiscal policies could provide supportive conditions for risk assets.

Such an environment could improve liquidity across financial markets, which historically has benefited assets like Bitcoin.

However, Edwards cautioned that rising energy prices could complicate this outlook. If oil prices were to climb above $100 per barrel, it could introduce additional pressure on global equity markets and potentially affect broader risk sentiment.

The Debate Around Bitcoin Treasury Companies

Another topic raised during the discussion involved the growing number of publicly traded companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets. Edwards believes that the increasing presence of these so-called “Bitcoin treasury companies” may not be sustainable over the long term.

He suggested that many of these firms could eventually consolidate or disappear as market dynamics evolve. Companies that have adopted debt-financed Bitcoin accumulation strategies may also need to adapt their business models in the future, potentially expanding into financial services or lending activities to remain viable.

Also, you can freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, please follow us on our Telegram, YouTube and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Analyst: “New ATHs Difficult Until This Bitcoin Risk is Resolved” appeared first on Coin Engineer.

A sharp shift in funding rates, rising open interest, and elevated liquidation volumes collectively point to crowded bearish positioning in the futures market.

Funding Rates Drop to -6%

Bitcoin Perpetual futures funding rates fell to -6%, marking the second most negative reading in the past three months. The last time funding reached similarly depressed levels was on February 6, when Bitcoin formed a local bottom near $60,000.

Funding rates represent the periodic payments exchanged between long and short traders in perpetual futures markets. When rates are positive, long positions compensate shorts. When rates turn negative, short sellers pay long holders. Deeply negative funding typically reflects aggressive downside positioning, with traders willing to pay a premium to maintain bearish bets.

Such extreme readings often indicate one-sided sentiment, where a large portion of market participants are leaning heavily in the same direction.

Bitcoin Open Interest Climbs Despite Price Weakness

Over the past 24 hours, coin-margined open interest increased from 668,000 BTC to 687,000 Bitcoin. Measuring open interest in BTC terms removes distortions caused by price fluctuations and offers a clearer view of participation.

The combination of rising open interest and sharply negative funding suggests that new positions are being added, and that a growing share of traders are positioning for further downside. This buildup of short exposure increases the likelihood of a squeeze if price momentum shifts upward.

$500 Million in Liquidations

In the last 24 hours, more than $500 million in crypto positions were liquidated. Approximately $420 million of that total came from long positions, highlighting the scale of forced selling during the recent decline.

With many long positions flushed out and funding rates deeply negative, the market may now be tilted toward excessive short exposure.

$64,000 as a Trigger Level for Bitcoin

Bitcoin attempt to reclaim $64,000 is technically significant. A sustained move above that level could pressure heavily leveraged short positions, potentially triggering a cascade of liquidations and accelerating upward momentum.

Current derivatives metrics reflect elevated risk and crowded positioning. How price responds in the near term will determine whether this imbalance resolves through renewed downside—or a sharp short squeeze.

This content is not investment advice.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Growing Signs of a Bitcoin Short Squeeze appeared first on Coin Engineer.

This is not a conventional technical indicator. It does not rely on moving averages, RSI, or momentum oscillators. Instead, Peterson focuses on the internal rhythm of the market. By measuring how many months close positive within rolling 24-month windows, he attempts to identify structural balance. His interpretation is straightforward. When positive and negative months distribute evenly, the market often sits near transition zones rather than collapse phases.

Bitcoin’s 24-month data shows balance

Over the last two years, Bitcoin has produced an almost symmetrical performance structure. Twelve of the past 24 months ended in gains. The other twelve closed lower. In 2025 alone, Bitcoin recorded positive closes in January, April, May, June, July, and September. The remaining months leaned negative.

This kind of distribution matters. A structurally weak asset typically produces extended sequences of negative closes. Bitcoin has not shown that pattern. Instead, the data reflects equilibrium. Pressure exists, but so does resilience.

Peterson’s conclusion follows directly from this balance. Based on historical probability patterns, he estimates an 88% likelihood that Bitcoin will trade above current levels within the next 10 months.

This is not certainty. It is probability. Still, probability defines markets more often than prediction.

Bitcoin price remains below yearly start

Despite the statistical optimism, BTC continues to trade roughly 25% below its level at the beginning of the year. That decline has weighed heavily on sentiment. Confidence eroded gradually, not all at once. And gradual declines tend to leave deeper psychological marks.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index recently dropped to 9, placing sentiment firmly in the “Extreme Fear” zone. Historically, such readings appear near moments of structural stress. Sometimes they precede deeper declines. Other times, they appear just before stabilization begins.

Behavioral data from Santiment adds another subtle signal. Social media discussion and price prediction activity around Bitcoin have declined noticeably. At first glance, this looks like fading interest. In practice, it often reflects emotional exhaustion. Speculative noise fades. The market becomes quieter. And quiet markets often rebuild foundation.

Analysts divided on Bitcoin price outlook

Market participants remain split. Some analysts expect recovery in the near term. Among them is trader Michael van de Poppe, who recently suggested Bitcoin could see short-term strength following consecutive weak months.

Others remain cautious. Veteran trader Peter Brandt believes the true bottom may not arrive until October 2026. His view reflects the possibility that Bitcoin has not yet completed a full capitulation cycle.

These conflicting interpretations reflect a market still searching for direction. Neither bulls nor bears have established decisive control.

Historical data highlights key Bitcoin months

Seasonality data from CoinGlass reinforces the importance of late-year performance. Since 2013, November has delivered Bitcoin’s strongest average returns, exceeding 41%.

Prediction market data from Polymarket shows similar expectations. Traders currently assign November 2026 an 18% probability of being Bitcoin’s best-performing month, with December close behind at 17%.

This timing is not random. Strong performance periods often follow extended sentiment compression. Weak sentiment environments tend to reset positioning.

Bitcoin structure shows statistical stability

Bitcoin does not currently display a confirmed bullish trend. But it does not show structural collapse either. The equal distribution of positive and negative monthly closes suggests internal stability remains intact.

Markets rarely move in straight lines. They compress. They hesitate. They drift. Direction emerges later.

Peterson’s 88% probability estimate does not promise a rally. It simply reveals that beneath current fear and uncertainty, the statistical structure still allows for recovery.

Also, you can freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, please follow us on our Telegram, YouTube and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Where will Bitcoin close the year 2026? appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Historic Bitcoin (BTC) Breakdown Against Gold

For years, Bitcoin’s performance relative to gold has been viewed as a macro-level confidence indicator. The narrative of Bitcoin as “digital gold” relied in part on this steady long-term trend. Losing that structure may suggest that the market is reassessing how it values Bitcoin as a store of value.

On-chain analyst Willy Woo argues that the timing of the breakdown coincides with growing awareness of quantum-related vulnerabilities. Bitcoin’s security model relies on ECDSA cryptography. In theory, a sufficiently advanced quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm could derive private keys from public keys. While this is not currently feasible, projections suggest it could become a realistic threat within 5 to 15 years.

The 4 Million Bitcoin Question

Fund manager Justin Bons suggests that markets may already be starting to price in this long-term technological risk. Estimates indicate that roughly 4 million older or lost BTC could be exposed in a quantum scenario. If those coins were suddenly accessible, the resulting supply shock would not be reflected in existing valuation frameworks.

This introduces a new layer of uncertainty beyond macroeconomic trends or ETF inflows. Instead of liquidity or monetary policy, the concern centers on a foundational technological vulnerability.

Key Price Levels and Ongoing Uncertainty

Bitcoin is currently trading near $68,000 but struggling to generate sustained upward momentum. The $66,500 level stands out as critical support. A breakdown below that area could open the path toward the $55,000 range.

Although developers are discussing quantum-resistant upgrades, no definitive roadmap has been finalized. Until a standardized solution is implemented across the network, the quantum narrative may continue to cap long-term valuation expectations.

This content is not investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets involve significant risk, and individuals should conduct their own research before making financial decisions.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Bitcoin 12-Year Trend Break: What Is Happening? appeared first on Coin Engineer.

With the second half of the month approaching, understanding the underlying market dynamics has become increasingly important. Recent price action has been shaped by large-scale deleveraging, tighter macroeconomic conditions, and the fading momentum that followed the surge of interest in Bitcoin ETFs last year.

Bitcoin Outlook: Orderly Deleveraging or Bear Market?

In early February, Bitcoin dropped below the psychological $70,000 level, briefly testing the $61,000 area. Unlike the disorderly crashes seen in previous cycles, this decline appears more controlled. Futures open interest fell by more than 20% within a short period, signaling that excessive speculative leverage has been flushed out of the system.

Rather than pointing to structural collapse, this development suggests a market undergoing recalibration. The unwinding of leveraged positions may represent a normalization process after the aggressive rally that led to the 2025 peak.

Key Drivers Shaping Bitcoin February Performance

Institutional Outflows: Recent data shows that outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have started to exceed inflows. This trend indicates that some institutional investors are taking profits or reallocating capital toward more defensive assets.

Macroeconomic Pressure: The Federal Reserve has maintained policy rates near 3.75%, while inflation remains around 2.4%. The persistence of relatively tight monetary conditions continues to limit appetite for higher-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Tax Season Impact: The introduction of the IRS Form 1099-DA for the 2026 tax year has added compliance complexity, particularly for U.S.-based investors. As a result, some market participants may be reducing exposure to meet potential tax obligations.

Critical Technical Levels

The following price zones are likely to define Bitcoin’s trajectory into the end of February:

• Major Resistance: $84,117

• Near-Term Resistance: $72,390

• Immediate Support: $65,000

• Strong Support: $58,950

Market consensus suggests Bitcoin may consolidate within the $64,000–$75,000 range for the remainder of the month. A recovery above $100,000 before month-end is widely considered unlikely.

The Cyclical Correction Pattern

Historically, Bitcoin has tended to peak 12 to 18 months after a halving event. The October 2025 high occurred roughly 17 months after the 2024 halving, and the subsequent 40–50% correction aligns with patterns observed in previous cycles.

With the Fear and Greed Index currently in extreme fear territory (around 0–20), some experienced investors interpret the environment as a reset phase rather than a terminal decline.

Additionally, continued progress in Layer 2 infrastructure and institutional custody solutions suggests that the market’s structural foundation is stronger than in prior downturns.

This content is not investment advice.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Bitcoin Price Analysis: What Awaits Investors in 2026? appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Long-Term Supply Climbs to 14.3 Million Bitcoin

According to on-chain metrics, the amount of Bitcoin held by long-term investors had declined to around 13.8 million BTC in recent months. That figure has now rebounded to approximately 14.3 million BTC, signaling renewed accumulation.

Long-term holders are typically defined as market participants who retain their assets through volatility and extended market cycles. When this group begins increasing its exposure during periods of weakness, it often reflects strategic positioning rather than reactive trading. The recent uptick suggests that current price levels may be viewed as attractive from a long-term perspective.

Historical Pattern: Rally Within 3–4 Months

Previous bull cycles reveal a recurring pattern: long-term holders tend to accumulate during or shortly after local market corrections. Roughly three to four months following these accumulation phases, Bitcoin has historically entered a notable rally.

Analysts caution against interpreting the current correction as the end of the broader uptrend. Instead, they suggest the market may be experiencing a mid-cycle pullback within a larger bullish structure. From this standpoint, the recent decline could represent consolidation rather than a structural trend reversal.

Price Action: Bitcoin Slips Below $67,000

On the price front, volatility remains elevated. After dropping to $60,000 last week, Bitcoin managed to reclaim levels above $70,000 over the weekend. However, renewed selling pressure emerged, pushing the price back below $67,000.

Technical Bitcoin (BTC) Outlook: Key Levels to Watch

Intraday, Bitcoin retraced to an untested internal structure support and found a short-term reaction at $66,750. This level now serves as a critical reference point. As long as price remains above this support and holds within the defined consolidation range, the broader structure remains intact.

The $72,000 level stands out as a major resistance and liquidity target. A move toward this area is plausible provided no new lower low forms. A decisive break above $72,000 could open the path toward the $78,000–$80,000 range, which represents the next significant resistance zone.

Overall, the behavior of long-term holders combined with key technical levels suggests that the coming months may prove decisive for Bitcoin’s next major move.

*This content does not constitute investment advice.

Also, in the comment section, you can freely share your comments and opinions about the topic. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on Telegram, YouTube and Twitter for the latest news and updates.

The post Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Are Accumulating: Is a Rally Ahead? appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research, Alex Thorn, emphasizes that downside risks are still firmly in play. In his view, Bitcoin’s recent movements do not yet reflect a decisive shift in market sentiment, particularly as macro and crypto-specific catalysts remain scarce.

Galaxy Digital: Realized Price Emerges as a Key Level

One of the most critical metrics highlighted by Galaxy Digital is Bitcoin’s realized price, which represents the average cost basis of all BTC in circulation. This level currently sits near $56,000. Thorn notes that Bitcoin may first revisit the $70,000 supply gap, after which a test of the realized price becomes increasingly plausible if bearish conditions persist.

A major headwind, according to Galaxy, is Bitcoin’s failure to trade in tandem with traditional hard assets like gold and silver. This disconnect weakens the “debasement hedge” narrative that has historically supported Bitcoin during periods of macro uncertainty, placing additional pressure on price expectations.

Technical Structure: Long-Term Averages in Focus

Although Bitcoin recently gained around 3% to trade just below $78,500, it remains roughly 39% below its all-time high of $126,000 recorded in early October. Galaxy Digital places particular importance on long-term moving averages when evaluating market cycles.

Thorn points out that Bitcoin lost support at its 50-week moving average in November. Meanwhile, the 200-week moving average, currently near $58,000, has historically coincided with cycle bottoms. In prior market downturns, these levels have often served as strong accumulation zones for long-term investors.

Long-Term Holder Behavior Suggests a Potential Base

On-chain data analyzed by Galaxy Digital indicates limited evidence of aggressive accumulation by large holders so far. This suggests that some investors may be waiting for lower prices before re-entering the market.

However, there is a notable shift: long-term holder profit-taking has slowed significantly. While some holders may still be inclined to sell into strength, the reduction in realized profits historically aligns with markets approaching a local or cyclical bottom.

Regulatory Developments Unlikely to Boost Bitcoin Near-Term

While US lawmakers continue to debate a crypto market structure bill, Galaxy Digital believes its short-term impact on Bitcoin may be limited. Even if passed, Thorn argues that regulatory clarity is more likely to benefit altcoins rather than Bitcoin itself.

Overall, Galaxy’s assessment suggests that Bitcoin could remain volatile in the near term, but is gradually approaching levels that have historically marked long-term opportunity zones.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Could Bitcoin Decline Continue? Galaxy Warns! appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Regulatory Pressure Remains a Key Overhang

Despite improving price action, regulatory uncertainty continues to weigh on broader market sentiment. In South Korea, crypto exchange Coinone dismissed recent claims suggesting it was in talks to sell equity to Coinbase. The company clarified that speculation surrounding a renewed entry of U.S.-based exchanges into the South Korean market does not reflect reality.

This statement dampened expectations of near-term consolidation in the Asian crypto sector and reinforced the idea that regulatory barriers remain a major constraint on international expansion. The situation highlights how compliance challenges continue to shape strategic decisions for both local and global platforms.

A similar dynamic is unfolding in the United Kingdom. According to a survey conducted by the UK Cryptoasset Business Council, nearly 40% of payments to crypto exchanges are being blocked or delayed by major banks. Exchanges operating in the region report a noticeable rise in failed transactions, positioning the UK as one of the most restrictive environments for crypto-related banking access among developed markets.

Total Market Capitalization Approaches Key Resistance

The recent rise in total market value suggests that selling pressure has eased in the short term, allowing prices to stabilize. Analysts note that if current momentum is sustained, the overall crypto market could attempt a move toward the psychologically important $3 trillion resistance level.

A confirmed break above this threshold may open the door for an extension toward $3.05 trillion. However, if buying interest weakens, the market could once again retreat toward the $2.92 trillion support zone, keeping volatility elevated.

Bitcoin’s Focus Shifts Toward $90,000

Bitcoin was trading around $88,421 at the time of writing. Importantly, BTC has managed to stay above the $86,976 level, which corresponds to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Holding this area has helped prevent a sharper downside move.

Many market participants view this zone as a critical bear-market support base. As long as it remains intact, Bitcoin may continue to consolidate in a narrow range, with a potential test of the $90,000 psychological resistance in the near term.

On the downside, a decisive break below $86,976 could expose Bitcoin to a move toward the next support level at $84,694. Such a decline would likely increase selling pressure across the broader crypto market, reinforcing the importance of these levels in the days ahead.

This content does not constitute investment advice.

Also, in the comment section, you can freely share your comments and opinions about the topic. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on Telegram, YouTube and Twitter for the latest news and updates.

The post Critical Price Levels to Watch for Bitcoin appeared first on Coin Engineer.

This picture is supported not only by price movements but also by the flow of realized profits and losses. Particularly, losses accumulated since the end of December align with early bear market behaviors observed in previous cycles.

Why Did Profit Flows Reverse?

According to CryptoQuant’s weekly report, Bitcoin holders have realized net losses totaling 69,000 BTC since December 23. This marks the first 30-day period in which network participants posted net losses. For the first time since October 2023, investors moved from profits to selling at a loss. In other words, holders closed positions at prices lower than their purchase.

However, this shift did not happen overnight. On-chain data shows that realized profits have gradually declined since March 2024. As price momentum weakened, the bull phase ended, and holders began realizing lower profits.

The critical point is that profits are falling even while prices remain relatively high, signaling a structural shift in investor behavior.

Crypto Market “Extreme Fear”: Bitcoin Under Pressure

Dangerous Similarities With the 2021–2022 Cycle

Analysts highlight that the current structure bears striking resemblance to the 2021–2022 bull-to-bear transition. Back then, net realized profits peaked in January 2021, followed by lower local tops in February and November. The network then entered a net loss phase.

Notably, investors realized lower net profits at higher prices, indicating that the market could no longer absorb gains and had entered a distribution phase.

Today’s pattern is following a similar trajectory. Net realized profits peaked in January 2024, then fell to lower peaks in December 2024, July, and October 2025. Currently, margins have turned fully negative.

Early Bear Market Signals

Looking deeper at the data, Bitcoin’s annual net realized profits dropped from 4.4 million BTC in October 2025 to 2.5 million BTC today, a level last seen in March 2024. More importantly, this pace and level of decline nearly mirrors the start of the last bear market in March 2022.

Even more striking is the net loss behavior. Current loss patterns almost exactly replicate the first bear phase in March 2022, when price momentum had already weakened and the market was sustained by “correction” narratives. On-chain data, however, had already signaled danger well in advance.

A similar investor sentiment gap is forming today.

Why Is Demand Not Reacting?

CryptoQuant and other on-chain sources indicate no significant demand increase from ETFs or spot markets. Even though short-lived improvements occurred, total demand has contracted again over the past 30 days.

This suggests a lack of natural buyers to push prices higher. Rising realized losses imply that investors are increasingly moving toward exits rather than waiting.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Bitcoin May Be Repeating the 2021–2022 Cycle appeared first on Coin Engineer.