This divergence indicates that market psychology is not moving in a single, unified direction.

U.S. Fear Spikes Sharply While Global Interest Declines

According to Google Trends, searches for “bitcoin zero” in the United States reached the maximum score of 100 in February on the platform’s relative interest scale. This marks the highest level of search intensity within the selected timeframe. Similar spikes were observed in 2021 and 2022, both of which occurred close to local price bottoms for Bitcoin.

Because of this pattern, some analysts interpret extreme search spikes as signs of capitulation — moments when retail investors emotionally surrender to losses. Historically, such periods often align with the late stages of sell-offs.

This time, however, the global data does not confirm the same level of panic.

Worldwide, the same search term peaked at 100 in August. Since then, interest has steadily declined, falling to just 38 this month. Instead of setting new highs, global fear-based searches have been fading for months.

In other words, while fear intensified in the United States, it has been cooling across the rest of the world.

This kind of divergence matters.

Macro Pressure Appears to Be Affecting U.S. Retail Investors More Directly

Recent macro developments have been heavily concentrated in the United States. Escalating tariff rhetoric, geopolitical tensions involving Iran, and broader risk-off sentiment in U.S. equities have all contributed to a more fragile investor environment.

Retail investors tend to react quickly to domestic headlines. In contrast, investors in Asia and Europe may interpret the same price decline through a different macro lens. As a result, Bitcoin — despite being a global asset — can experience regionally uneven fear responses.

That asymmetry is now visible in the data.

Fear is elevated in the U.S., but globally, sentiment appears more stable.

The Hidden Limitation of Google Trends Data

Google Trends does not report absolute search volume. Instead, it assigns scores on a relative scale from 0 to 100. A score of 100 simply represents the highest level of interest within the selected period.

This distinction is important.

BTC user base has expanded significantly since the 2022 bear market. A score of 100 today reflects a surge relative to a much larger baseline audience. It does not necessarily mean more people searched in absolute terms compared to previous cycles.

In other words, the spike signals elevated relative fear, but it must be interpreted within the context of a growing adoption curve.

Bottom Signal Remains Possible, but Confirmation Is Incomplete

Retail panic often emerges near market bottoms. This behavioral pattern has repeated across multiple Bitcoin cycles. However, such signals are rarely reliable in isolation, especially when global data fails to confirm the same trend.

The current structure is more complex. U.S.-based fear has surged sharply, yet global fear indicators have been declining.

This weakens the reliability of a clear capitulation signal.

Panic exists — but it is not universal.

These kinds of fragmented sentiment structures often appear during transitional phases. Sometimes they precede trend reversals. Other times, they reflect temporary emotional stress without marking a definitive bottom.

As Bitcoin stabilizes near the $60,000 region, investor psychology remains unsettled. Search data confirms rising anxiety among U.S. retail participants. However, without broader global confirmation, the signal remains incomplete.

The market, for now, has not fully revealed its direction.

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On-chain data shows that the Short-Term Holder (STH) Bollinger Band oscillator, which measures the gap between Bitcoin’s price and the cost basis of wallets holding BTC for less than 155 days, has plunged into deep oversold territory. In simple terms, Bitcoin is trading well below what recent buyers paid, beyond normal volatility, a signal historically aligned with macro bottoms.

2018 Rally Setup

A similar oversold signal appeared in late 2018 and preceded a roughly 150% rally within a year, eventually leading to a 1,900% increase over three years. The same indicator also flashed ahead of the November 2022 bottom, preceding a 700% rally to near $126,270.

Since October 2025, when Bitcoin peaked near $126,500, the asset has lost more than 50% of its value, dropping to around $60,000. The market is now on track for a fifth consecutive weekly loss—the first time since the March-May 2022 period. Monthly losses have also piled up for five straight months since October, marking the second-longest declining streak after the six-month drop between 2018 and 2019.

Bitcoin vs. Gold

Against gold, Bitcoin has underperformed for seven consecutive months, representing one of the longest stretches of weak performance in the BTC/Gold pair.

Wells Fargo strategist Ohsung Kwon noted to CNBC that higher-than-expected US tax refunds in 2026 could funnel roughly $150 billion into equities and Bitcoin. That could absorb remaining sell pressure and increase the chances of Bitcoin bottoming in the coming weeks.

Short-term holder stress is easing, whales haven’t capitulated yet, and liquidity may flow in by the end of March. Conditions for a rebound are gradually forming, though volatility remains high and sudden price swings are still possible.

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Alongside this move, a notable rebound appeared in the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index, which tracks US-based demand. However, this shift points more to selective purchases near lows than to a broad increase in risk appetite.

What Does the Coinbase Premium Index Show?

The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index — tracking the difference between Coinbase prices and the global average — had dropped to roughly -0.22% at the peak of the sell-off. By Tuesday, it had recovered to around -0.05%.

The index is still in negative territory. But the reversal is significant.

This suggests that, as forced selling eased, US-based investors saw an opportunity to buy the dip. Coinbase is widely regarded as a proxy for institutional and dollar-denominated fund flows. Deep negative premiums usually indicate either aggressive selling by US investors or complete inactivity. A return toward neutral, particularly after one of Bitcoin’s fastest drops since the FTX collapse in 2022, shows some buyers found value at lower levels.

Yet, the critical threshold has not been breached.

The premium has not reached positive territory. Historically, this level aligns with sustainable accumulation among US funds and renewed risk appetite. The current pattern, however, signals selective buying rather than broad-based participation.

Where Will Bitcoin Bottom? Key Levels

Key Developments Behind Bitcoin’s Latest Rebound

• Coinbase Premium Rebounds: The index rose from -0.22% to -0.05%, showing US investors shifted from selling pressure to buying.

• Fear Index Turns From Lows: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 6 over the weekend, touching levels seen in the 2022 FTX crash. By late Monday, it rose to 14, but the market remains jittery.

• Liquidity Remains Thin: Trading volumes are far below late-2025 peaks, meaning price moves can spike sharply but lack support.

Where Will Bitcoin Bottom? Levels Analysts Are Watching

Low Volumes, Weak Liquidity

Market structure data supports this cautious interpretation. According to Kaiko, total trading volumes on major exchanges remain far below late-2025 highs. Spot market activity indicates gradual slowdown rather than a surge in demand.

Thin liquidity can create sharp price spikes once selling pressure subsides. But if buyers fail to follow through, the market remains vulnerable to renewed downward moves.

Bitcoin has recovered over 15% from intraday lows and is now trading just below $70,000. Yet weekly losses remain in double digits.

Sentiment Remains Fragile

Investor psychology reflects a similar picture. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 6 over the weekend — near 2022 FTX crash lows — and rose to 14 by late Monday, still signaling excessive fear.

In short: the market has recovered slightly but not fully eased.

Overall, US-based buyers appear to have stepped in on the dip. The Coinbase Premium rebound confirms this. Yet, low volumes, thin liquidity, and a premium still in negative territory prevent us from calling it a broad-based demand wave.

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