Altcoin Seasonal Index Slips Amid Rising Doubts

The Altcoin Seasonal Index, which measures how altcoins are performing relative to Bitcoin on a scale of 0 to 100, offered early signs of optimism. The index climbed to 59 on Monday, hinting at potential momentum. However, by Friday, it had dropped to 41—reflecting growing uncertainty among investors.

This shift signals that the recent bullish sentiment surrounding altcoins may have been premature or short-lived, especially given the market’s fragile state.

Coinbase Research: Excessive Leverage Behind the Pullback

According to David Duong, Head of Research at Coinbase, the market’s latest downturn has less to do with fundamentals and more with risk management. Since April, the size of the altcoin market—excluding stablecoins—has nearly doubled. But many investors were caught overexposed in highly leveraged long positions.

One key indicator highlighted by Duong is the Altcoin Open Interest Dominance, which rose to 1.6. This metric compares the dollar value of open interest in altcoin futures versus Bitcoin futures. Historically, a spike in this ratio has often preceded sharp market corrections.

Duong emphasized that a drop in this metric would signal healthy deleveraging, while a continued rise could lead to further market volatility.

Bitcoin Dominance Drops Below Key Threshold

A critical factor for the continuation of altcoin momentum is the Bitcoin Dominance metric, which reflects Bitcoin’s share of the overall crypto market. Notably, this figure has dipped below its 200-day moving average—something that hasn’t occurred since January 2025.

According to Duong, “A sustained move below the 200-day average could be the technical confirmation of an altcoin season.” He added that such drops in the past have often preceded weeks-long altcoin rallies, such as in 2021. However, he also cautioned that more daily closes below this level are needed before drawing firm conclusions.

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The Halving Cycle May No Longer Define the Trend

Kendrick suggests that Bitcoin’s price action is no longer closely tied to traditional halving cycles. Historically, BTC has seen notable corrections roughly 18 months after each halving. However, with the most recent halving in April 2024, this pattern appears to be shifting.

The key reason? Unlike previous cycles, the current market is witnessing strong ETF inflows and increased corporate treasury accumulation. These new demand drivers are believed to be powerful enough to support Bitcoin’s continued upward trajectory.

Standard Chartered Eyes $500K by 2028

Looking further ahead, Standard Chartered maintains a long-term bullish stance. The bank forecasts Bitcoin could reach as high as $500,000 per coin by 2028, supported by increasing institutional adoption and tightening supply-demand dynamics.

Correction Risks Remain on the Table

While the outlook remains positive, Kendrick also cautions about potential price corrections toward the end of Q3 and beginning of Q4. The psychological impact of past halving cycles may still influence short-term volatility in the crypto markets.

In summary, Standard Chartered’s projection underlines a significant shift in the Bitcoin investment landscape, with institutional demand playing a growing role in price formation and long-term market structure.

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Arthur Hayes Remains Optimistic Despite the Dip

Bitcoin shed more than 8% over the past week, briefly falling below the $100,000 mark. Still, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes the correction is only temporary. In his words, “this weakness shall pass.”

Bitcoin Drops Below $100K but Recovers Swiftly

Following reports of a U.S. airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, BTC plunged to $98,500 on Sunday — marking its lowest level in over six weeks. However, the dip was short-lived, with the price recovering to $101,000 during early Monday trading in the Asian markets.

Hayes emphasized that Bitcoin will continue to solidify its role as a safe haven asset, particularly as central banks ramp up monetary expansion in response to global instability.

Sideways Action Continues, But Key Support Holds

Market analysts suggest that Bitcoin is currently moving within a consolidation range. As long as BTC holds above $98,000 — a short-term realized price level — and maintains trend support near $102,000, there may be room for short-term rebounds. A drop below this range, however, could shift attention back to defensive trading strategies.

Bitcoin has attempted to break above $110,000 three times in the past five weeks, but macroeconomic pressures have kept it in check. Analysts anticipate this sideways movement could continue through the summer.

Institutional Demand Stays Strong

Despite price swings, institutional interest in Bitcoin remains robust. Market participants suggest that large-scale investors continue to accumulate BTC, interpreting dips as long-term buying opportunities.

Could Altcoins Steal the Spotlight?

Some experts also believe that the coming months could favor altcoins over Bitcoin, especially if macro conditions stabilize. With certain indicators signaling relative strength among altcoins, there is potential for these assets to outperform if crypto-specific catalysts gain momentum.

At the time of writing, most altcoins were trading in the red, and the total crypto market capitalization had fallen by roughly $50 billion in the past 12 hours, settling at around $3.21 trillion.

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This calm price action reflects the lingering uncertainty following the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged. The Fed’s cautious tone and focus on inflation are weighing on short-term investor sentiment.

Is Seasonal Strength for Bitcoin Kicking In?

Historically, June and July tend to be quieter months for the crypto market—and 2025 appears no different so far. Singapore-based QCP Capital noted that Bitcoin’s short-term implied volatility has dipped below 40%, effectively erasing the risk premium tied to recent geopolitical tensions.

Options markets are showing a tilt toward protective strategies, with put options trading at higher premiums than calls. This suggests investors are hedging against potential short-term pullbacks.

Bullish Structure Still Intact for Bitcoin

Joel Kruger, strategist at LMAX Group, highlighted that the broader technical picture remains favorable:

“Bitcoin continues to consolidate in a bullish manner. A breakout above resistance levels could trigger a move toward the $145,000 region.”

He also noted that Ethereum is showing signs of strength. A breakout above $2,900 could pave the way for a push toward $3,400.

Regulatory Progress Brings Institutional Confidence

In a positive development for the crypto space, the U.S. Senate passed a bill to regulate stablecoins, signaling a shift toward clearer legislation. This is seen as a key step toward greater institutional involvement.

“Globally, we’re witnessing regulatory momentum that could accelerate crypto adoption,” Kruger added.

Range-Bound in the Short Term, But Optimism Builds for H2

For now, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound between $102,000 and $108,000 due to end-of-month options expiries and systematic portfolio rebalancing.

Still, historical patterns suggest that the second half of the year tends to favor stronger performance in digital assets.

“The worst might be behind us,” said Kruger. “The next rally could catch a lot of investors off guard.”

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In May, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by just 0.1% month-over-month and 2.4% annually—below the expected 2.5%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, also came in at a softer 2.8%. Declines in energy, vehicles, and apparel prices contributed to the subdued inflation print, helping to ease concerns over runaway inflation.

Pressure on the Fed to Cut Rates Grows

This weaker-than-expected inflation reading reignited speculation that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates in the near future. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance publicly urged the Fed to take action and lower rates, calling the current monetary stance overly restrictive.

The dovish outlook and easing inflation boosted risk appetite across markets, pushing Bitcoin above the $110,000 mark. Many crypto investors see this macro backdrop as a potential catalyst for the next bullish cycle.

Moreover, with real wages rising and inflation pressures easing, digital assets are increasingly seen as attractive alternatives to traditional investments. Market participants are now closely watching upcoming Fed comments and macroeconomic data for further confirmation of a rate cut trajectory.

Bitcoin Surpasses $110,000

Bitcoin’s breakout not only reflects favorable economic conditions but also growing investor confidence and positive sentiment in digital asset markets.

If inflation remains tame and the Fed turns more accommodative, Bitcoin’s upward momentum may continue well into the summer.

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What is the 2-Year MA Multiplier?

The 2-Year MA Multiplier is an indicator calculated by dividing Bitcoin’s current price by its 2-year (730-day) moving average. This indicator is used to evaluate Bitcoin’s long-term price trends and identify potential turning points in market cycles. On the chart, Bitcoin’s price (white), the 2-Year Moving Average (yellow), and the 2-Year MA x5 (purple), which is five times the moving average, are displayed together.

• White Line: Bitcoin Price
• Yellow Line: Represents the average price of Bitcoin over the past 2 years.
• Purple Line: Represents five times the 2-Year Moving Average (applied to the price value, not the time period).

Calculation

The multiplier is calculated using the following formula:
Multiplier = Bitcoin Price / 2-Year Moving Average (730-Day MA)

• Multiplier < 1: Bitcoin is trading below its 2-year average; this is historically considered a buying zone.
• Multiplier > 3: Bitcoin is approaching or exceeding five times its 2-year average; this may signal a selling zone or a market peak.
• Multiplier < 0.5: Indicates potential bottom zones.

The 2-year period covers roughly half of Bitcoin’s approximately 4-year halving cycles. This timeframe smooths out short-term price volatility while effectively capturing medium- and long-term trend changes.

Why is it Important?

Bitcoin moves through market cycles characterized by periods of extreme optimism (bull markets) and extreme pessimism (bear markets). The 2-Year MA Multiplier is a simple yet effective tool for understanding these cycles and making strategic investment decisions. Here’s why:

• Identifying Market Cycles: The multiplier helps identify Bitcoin’s bottom and peak points. When the price falls below the yellow line (2-Year MA), historical data suggests buying opportunities with significant returns. When the price approaches or exceeds the purple line (2-Year MA x5), it often signals the peak of a bull market.
• Risk Management: By highlighting overvalued or undervalued zones, it provides investors with clear reference points for risk management. For example, when the price exceeds the purple line, profit-taking may be considered.
• Long-Term Investment Tool: The 2-Year MA Multiplier is designed for investors focused on long-term trends rather than short-term fluctuations. This helps avoid speculative moves and supports more informed decision-making.

How is it Used?

• Buying Opportunities: When Bitcoin’s price falls below the 2-Year MA (yellow line), historical data indicates it’s a good time for accumulation, typically signaling the end of a bear market.
• Selling Opportunities: When the price rises above the 2-Year MA x5 (purple line), it suggests the bull market is nearing its peak, making it a potential time for profit-taking.
• Strategic Planning: When used alongside other technical and fundamental analysis tools, the multiplier enables investors to develop more robust strategies.

Why 2 Years and the x5 Multiplier?

The 2-year period is an ideal timeframe for analyzing Bitcoin’s cyclical nature, particularly its halving cycles. The 730-day moving average filters out short-term noise while capturing meaningful trend changes. The x5 multiplier has historically been an effective threshold for identifying overextended price zones. This combination provides a powerful framework for understanding market sentiment and predicting cyclical movements.

Attention: This content is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments involve high risk. You should do your own research and consider your risk tolerance when making investment decisions.

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Is the Stage in Spot Markets?

The source of the recent rise is not leveraged transactions or sudden speculative movements as many think. On the contrary, stable demand in spot markets and on-chain data are the real engines of this rise. Especially the large purchases and ETF inflows made through Coinbase constitute the basic building blocks that carry the price of Bitcoin up.

Glassnode’s data defines this rise as “organic”. In other words, the price increase is based on real investor demand rather than speculation. However, derivatives markets are only reacting this time and not determining the direction.

Bitcoin Purchases: Is the $93,000 – $95,000 Range the New Accumulation Area?

While the Bitcoin price consolidates above $100,000, a new “accumulation area” where investors are concentrated is also becoming apparent: between $93,000 and $95,000. This level corresponds to the average cost of short-term investors, namely those who have purchased Bitcoin in the last 155 days. In other words, a significant amount of purchases have been made in this area and this is now a strong technical support point.

This article will also catch your attention: MOVE and OM Scandals Shake the Crypto Market: Crisis of Confidence Deepens

In past bull seasons, the market often found direction with excitement and haste. However, this time the picture is different. Investors are more conscious, more cautious and act based on technical signals. The “buy from the dip” strategy has been clearly adopted and systematic purchases are made in price pullbacks.

Daily inflows, especially in the ETF market, show that this strategy is also adopted at the institutional level. The $389 million ETF inflow on April 25 is the most striking example of this.

Is the Infrastructure Being Prepared for a Bitcoin Bull?

Bitcoin’s horizontal movement between $100,703 and $105,787 reflects a classic consolidation structure. This structure is usually interpreted as a pause phase before a strong price jump. Moreover, on-chain signals and whales’ non-aggressive but determined purchases suggest that we are in the early stages of a new bull cycle.

The invisible architects of the rise are no longer high-leveraged positions; they are actors who make strategic plans, know risk management and act with the right timing. What is driving the market up is a calm but deep wave of demand.

Current Market Data

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In a recent interview, Melker pointed out that Bitcoin’s volatility has significantly declined in recent years. “It used to be about three times more volatile than the S&P 500; now it’s below twice that,” he said, emphasizing that one of the main reasons behind this is the growing interest from pension funds and ETF issuers.

Volatility Decreases as Institutional Money Flows In

According to Melker, capital entering from traditional finance makes Bitcoin not only a more stable asset but also reduces volatility as the number of long-term investors increases. “As Wall Street money flows in, volatility decreases. This opens the door to stronger and more sustainable price movements,” he said.

As of 2025, the market has already started showing strong signals. Bitcoin has surpassed $104,000, while Ethereum reclaimed the $2,600 level.

Meanwhile, the inclusion of Coinbase in the S&P 500 index is seen as a major milestone in the integration of crypto into traditional finance. Moreover, Coinbase not only entered the list but also ranked within the top 50 by market cap.

Investor Confidence Is Growing

The public listing processes of companies like Galaxy Digital and eToro also indicate that the regulatory environment under the current U.S. administration has become more favorable for investors.

Melker noted that dropped SEC lawsuits and positive executive decisions have created what he calls an “extremely bullish atmosphere” in the crypto market.

Altcoin Shift Has Begun

Although Bitcoin remains the main focus, the analyst also observed liveliness in the altcoin market. Ethereum’s recent surge triggered activity in smaller-cap coins as well. Melker argued this is a sign of new money entering the market, not just internal rotation between assets.

A Rapid Climb Wouldn’t Be a Surprise

While Melker shared the $250,000 prediction, he also mentioned that most market expectations are in the $120K to $150K range. However, he added that unexpected surges are nothing unusual in crypto:

“From the lows of 2020 to the last bull run, Bitcoin went from $3,000 to $69,000. A 2.5x increase from here wouldn’t be surprising at all.”

Similar Predictions from Other Analysts

On May 16, an analysis account named Apsk32 on platform X argued that Bitcoin has a high chance of reaching $250,000 or more in 2025.

On April 28, Peter Chung, head of research at quantitative trading firm Presto, once again stated that Bitcoin could hit $210,000 by year-end.

And on April 22, analysts from Standard Chartered and Intellectia AI projected that demand from ETFs and investors looking to hedge against macroeconomic risks could lead Bitcoin to more than double in price this year.

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Surging Demand for $110K Strike Options

In a recent update shared on X, Deribit highlighted strong buying activity in call options at the $110,000 strike set to expire in June and July. Additionally, there has been notable interest in calendar spread strategies, involving long positions on $140,000 strike calls maturing in late September and short positions on $170,000 calls expiring by the end of the year.

Such flows suggest that investors are anticipating further gains for BTC in the weeks ahead. Call options give the holder the right to purchase the asset at a fixed price before a certain date, and are generally viewed as a bullish bet on the market.

Expiry Rollovers Show Continued Confidence

Deribit also noted a rollover of long positions from May expirations to July expirations, particularly around the $110,000 to $115,000 strike levels. This shift in positioning reflects an expectation of extended upside potential into the summer.

Is a BTC and ETH Breakout Brewing?

Bitcoin climbed above $104,000 on Thursday, marking a nearly 40% rebound from early April lows below $75,000. The rally has been fueled by positive sentiment around the U.S.-U.K. trade agreement and continued inflows into spot ETFs. Technical indicators continue to support a bullish outlook.

Meanwhile, Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) has jumped over 30% in just two days, reaching $2,411. The move is being interpreted as a bullish breakout on technical charts. On Deribit, there’s increasing demand for June expiry calls at the $2,400 level, as well as longer-dated call spreads targeting the $2,600–$2,800 range.

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According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, the market may soon see a significant shift. “This might be the last real chance to buy BTC under $100,000,” Hayes stated, referring to the potential impact of Treasury buybacks — a mechanism he describes as a “bazooka” for Bitcoin’s price momentum.

These bond repurchase operations, conducted by the U.S. Treasury, aim to inject liquidity into the financial system, stabilize interest rates, and manage national debt — all of which tend to benefit risk-on assets like Bitcoin.

Liquidity and Inflation Could Send BTC Soaring in 2025

Some analysts forecast that the expanding money supply in 2025 will serve as a major upward driver for Bitcoin. Under these macroeconomic conditions, BTC could surpass $132,000 before the end of the year. However, lingering uncertainty around the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China may temporarily temper investor appetite.

Dollar Weakness Adds Fuel to the Rally

Following new tariff announcements in early April, the U.S. Dollar Index dropped to its lowest level since March 2022. During this period, Bitcoin surged past $87,700 — reaching its highest level in nearly three weeks.

One European-based analyst noted that Bitcoin is benefiting from the dollar’s decline, suggesting that macro weakness in fiat currencies is once again reinforcing BTC’s role as a hedge.

Another market expert pointed to a recent breakout from a descending wedge pattern, signaling a potential new leg up. Coupled with the falling dollar and increasing correlation with gold, Bitcoin is regaining its position as a safe-haven asset in turbulent times.

Institutional Demand Remains Strong

Despite recent corrections, major investment firms based in Japan and the UK have reportedly injected hundreds of millions of dollars into Bitcoin. This institutional activity highlights continued confidence in Bitcoin’s four-year cycle theory and long-term value.

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