High Probability of Bitcoin Repeating Its 2024 Price Movement

The head crypto researcher at 10x Research does not rule out the possibility of Bitcoin repeating its price movement in 2024. Bitcoin, which reached all-time highs early in 2024, spent much of the year consolidating.

“Very likely,” said Markus Thielen, evaluating the possibility of Bitcoin showing a similar market movement to 2024. In March 2024, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $73,679, then consolidated within a range of around $20,000. This phase ended after Donald Trump was elected U.S. president in November.

BTC’s Current Chart Shows “Market Indecision”

Thielen mentioned that this thought goes back to two months ago, when Bitcoin hit its current all-time high of $109,000 on Trump’s inauguration day.

In his most recent market report on March 15, Thielen explained that Bitcoin’s current chart resembles a “High and Tight Flag” formation, typically a bullish continuation pattern, but with signs of weakness.

“Having two flags instead of a single, precise formation weakens the setup,” Thielen said.

“As a result, this pattern currently signals market indecision rather than a straightforward bullish consolidation,” he added.

Bitcoin’s Short-Term Uptrend Uncertain

Thielen pointed out that there are no signs of a “buy-the-dip” mentality in the Bitcoin spot ETF market and emphasized that most ETF flows come from arbitrage-driven hedge funds.

Since early March, after Bitcoin fell below $90,000, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $1.66 billion in outflows. Bitcoin is trading at $84,290, which represents a 23% drop from its $109,000 peak in January.

Thielen expressed uncertainty about Bitcoin’s short-term uptrend, stating that there is little evidence to support a strong price recovery. Other analysts also predict further downside for Bitcoin due to growing macroeconomic uncertainty.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated that $78,000 may be retested, and if that fails, $75,000 could be the next target. Meanwhile, Iliya Kalchev from Nexo said that the low $70,000 range could provide a foundation for a more sustainable recovery.

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The post 10x Research: Bitcoin Consolidation for Another 8 Months ‘Very Likely’ appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Glassnode researchers imply that the drop in Bitcoin’s current price has been more severe than the degree of capital outflows reveal. They claimed that since the 2019–2020 period, when the second quarter of 2019 showed a significant increase, there has not been a phase of consolidation of this duration highlighted.

Further studies reveal some of the stagnation among younger buyers, particularly those who purchased Bitcoin for one week to three months. The market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio of these STH sub-cohorts exposes how financially strained many new investors have been from their unrealized losses since June 2024. Still, these losses are not as severe as those of the sell-off in mid-2021 or the COVID-19 epidemic in March 2020.

The paper emphasizes how younger investors’ cost basis can lead to a reduction in the spot price during market contraction, therefore indicating a net capital outflow from the Bitcoin ecosystem. Particularly, the cost basis of individuals who kept Bitcoin for one week to one month—the “fast trace”—has dropped below that of the one-month to three-month cohort—the “slow trace”. This suggests now net market outflows.

Glassnode discovers that new investors still show quite great confidence in spite of net capital outflow and price consolidation. Examining how STHs responded to changes in the market, the research showed that these investors—albeit with unrealized losses—have not overreacted by selling their assets. This is more confident than in past bearish patterns.

The report highlights in the end that Bitcoin’s recent comeback has kept it above the STH cost basis of $63,900, so inspiring future price upward hope. Should Bitcoin keep its price higher than the 200-day moving average of $63.9k, this surge may have technical relevance implying a possible market turn-around.

There is no financial advice in this post; readers should investigate on their own before deciding on investments.

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