Short version: selling pressure may be running out of steam. Longer version? The path there is rarely clean.

Matrixport: Sellers may be exhausted, the floor is forming

According to Matrixport analysts, a key shift has appeared in the firm’s proprietary Bitcoin fear-and-greed metric. The 21-day moving average has dropped below zero and is now turning higher.

Technically, that transition often coincides with periods when selling becomes saturated and markets start searching for balance again.

Matrixport notes that sentiment has fallen to extreme pessimism. Historically, readings at these levels have marked attractive entry zones. Still, analysts caution that prices could drift lower in the near term before any durable recovery takes shape.

A small but important nuance: these “durable bottoms” rarely arrive in a single move. More often, markets bounce, retest, hesitate — then decide.

Sentiment hits four-year lows

Matrixport data shows comparable pessimism only around June 2024 and November 2025 — both following sharp drawdowns.

Independent measures tell the same story. The Fear & Greed Index from Alternative.me is hovering near 10 out of 100, firmly in “extreme fear” territory. The last time it reached similar depths was June 2022.

There’s another uncomfortable stat on the table: if Bitcoin closes February in the red, it will mark five consecutive monthly losses — the longest streak since 2018 and among the most sustained sell-offs in modern crypto history.

“Statistically oversold” territory

Mining sector voices are echoing the caution — and the opportunity.

On Monday, Frank Holmes said Bitcoin is trading roughly two standard deviations below its 20-day norm — a condition seen only three times over the past five years.

Historically, such extremes have favored short-term rebounds over the following 20 trading days, Holmes explained. Despite the current volatility, he remains constructive on the long-term outlook, pointing to resilient fundamentals.

At Hive Blockchain, the narrative is similar: price action looks fragile, but network security, infrastructure investment, and institutional engagement remain intact.

Reading between the lines

No single indicator tells the full story.

Sentiment is washed out. Technical metrics signal oversold conditions. At the same time, macro uncertainty persists and liquidity remains selective.

What’s emerging feels less like a clean bottom — and more like a market trying to breathe. Some traders are positioning for reflexive bounces. Others are waiting for confirmation. A large middle ground is simply watching, quietly.

Extreme fear has historically opened opportunity windows. But those windows rarely swing open smoothly. More likely, we’re entering a choppy transition phase.

Crypto doesn’t shout at moments like this. It whispers.

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This divergence isn’t random. Capital is rotating away from liquidity-driven trades and toward assets offering direct earnings visibility. Bitcoin falling below $65,000 fits squarely into that shift.

Stocks Recover, Crypto Pulls Back

U.S. equities remain resilient despite a brief pullback after the S&P 500 climbed to around 6,976. Earlier in the week, the index closed just below its previous high before attempting another short-lived push upward.

Meanwhile, risk appetite in equities stands in sharp contrast to weakness in crypto.

Momentum on the Bitcoin side has clearly faded. As broader capital flows favor traditional risk assets, selling pressure in digital markets has become increasingly visible. The gap between sentiment toward stocks and crypto continues to widen.

Why Is Bitcoin Falling Behind?

The latest rally in the S&P 500 has been driven largely by AI-linked stocks. After a short pause sparked by valuation concerns, investors returned to big tech and semiconductors.

Alphabet hit new highs. Amazon found support ahead of earnings. Chipmakers rallied on strengthening demand expectations.

But the more interesting story is happening beneath the surface.

Market breadth has improved noticeably. Small-cap stocks have outperformed, with the Russell 2000 up roughly 3% year-to-date. Simply put, investors aren’t just betting on mega-caps anymore — confidence is spreading across the broader economy.

In short: earnings, not valuations, are now carrying the rally.

Earnings Take Center Stage

Corporate results are the primary engine behind the current advance. Analysts expect S&P 500 companies to post close to 11% earnings growth for the December quarter — well above projections from January.

FactSet data shows more than 80% of reporting firms have beaten expectations so far. Even more striking: recent research suggests roughly 84% of total S&P 500 returns in this cycle are coming directly from earnings growth. That means prices are rising because of real profits, not multiple expansion.

This shift also softens “AI bubble” fears. Cash flow, not hype, is increasingly backing higher valuations.

Macro Backdrop Remains Supportive

The broader macro picture continues to favor equities.

U.S. GDP growth is hovering around 3.3%. Inflation remains relatively contained. Productivity indicators are improving. Even temporary government disruptions and delayed data releases failed to materially shake market confidence.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up more than 1% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite is down about 2.6%, but selective buying in tech persists.

Attention now turns to upcoming economic data and the Federal Reserve’s next policy signals, as investors look for confirmation that financial conditions will stay supportive.

What Bitcoin’s Weakness Is Signaling

While stocks climb, crypto markets are moving the other way. Bitcoin dipped below $65,000, marking its weakest level in about a year. Pressure across digital assets has grown as fading momentum, declining speculative appetite, and capital rotation toward earnings-producing equities converge.

This opposing performance highlights a widening short-term split between traditional risk assets and crypto.

Both markets can benefit from liquidity expansion. But in the current environment, investors are prioritizing balance sheets over narratives.

Fresh S&P 500 highs are being powered by earnings, not valuation inflation. AI investment, relative strength in small caps, and resilient macro data continue to support the upside — even as record levels demand more selective caution.

Bitcoin’s slide to one-year lows makes one thing clear: risk appetite is weakening on the crypto side, while equities still hold the wheel.

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Oil Prices Surge: Inflation Concerns Mount 

News of the strikes quickly pushed crude oil prices up. WTI crude oil prices jumped over 13%, reaching $77 per barrel. Brent crude, meanwhile, traded between $74 and $77. Investors adjusted their positions against the possibility of Iran disrupting regional oil supply, creating upward pressure on energy prices. JPMorgan analysts warn that if war risks persist, oil prices could climb to $120. This potential increase could reignite energy-driven inflation pressures in many countries, especially the U.S. 

Gold Breaks Records 

Investors flocked to gold in search of safety. Spot gold gained $24 per ounce in early Asian trading, climbing above $3,410. This brought it to its highest levels in recent years. Gold’s sharp rally clearly indicates investors are turning to safe havens in uncertain times. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to fluctuate based on global risk appetite and Fed policies. Furthermore, a weakening dollar acts as a positive catalyst for XAUUSD. In summary, with the intensification of conflicts in the Middle East, XAUUSD crossed the critical threshold of $2,000, entering a lasting upward trend. Since the conflict began, gold has been investors’ top choice for hedging against uncertainty and risk. Every new tension headline creates upward pressure on gold prices. 

Bitcoin Loses Value: Digital Gold Debate Reignites 

In contrast to gold’s sharp rise, Bitcoin’s price fell below $104,500. Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff called this “proof that Bitcoin is not digital gold.” According to Schiff, Bitcoin can’t gain value against gold and is trading more than 15% below its November 2021 peak. 

Peter Schiff: “In response to Israel’s airstrike on Iran, the market pushed gold up another $24 in early Asian trading, reaching over $3,410. Bitcoin, on the other hand, fell below $104,500. Bitcoin priced in gold is now more than 15% below its November 2021 peak. Bitcoin’s inability to rise against gold is strong evidence that the bubble has topped.” 

U.S. Economy: Inflation and Fed’s Rate Decision Under Scrutiny 

Rising oil prices mean inflationary pressures for the U.S. economy. JPMorgan stated that increasing energy costs could push U.S. CPI data up to 5%. This implies the Fed might delay its planned interest rate cuts. Therefore, investors are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East and the U.S. inflation data to be released this week. 

Upcoming data and regional developments will determine market direction in the coming days. 

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Key Support and Resistance Levels

From a technical analysis perspective, if the $2.22 level is breached, the price is expected to decline further toward the next support at $2.13. This zone forms a strong support area in the short term. However, if this level is also broken, XRP may face even larger losses.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

On the other hand, if the price moves upward again, downward FVG (Fair Value Gap) areas will act as key resistance levels. Breaking these resistances could help XRP recover. However, given the ongoing market uncertainty, caution is advised.

Bitcoin’s Movement Could Impact XRP!

The primary determining factor in the market remains Bitcoin’s price action. If Bitcoin’s decline deepens, the selling pressure on XRP may also increase. This situation calls for extra caution from investors.

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The post XRP Uptrend Broken! Where Is the Support Zone? appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Crypto Market Decline in Early 2025: The Harshest Crash in History?

The cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant decline since the start of 2025, with some investors describing this cycle as the most painful crash in history.

Some investors have been disappointed due to industry policy changes and the memecoin craze in the U.S., while others speculate that talent within the sector is shifting towards other industries. Despite the current market situation seeming bleak to some, this downturn is not the harshest decline in history, and many in the community still maintain their bullish expectations.

Lucien Bourdon’s Market Insights: “Part of the Process”

Trezor analyst Lucien Bourdon offers the following perspective: “For those who have experienced multiple cycles, this is part of the process.”

Crypto Market After Trump’s Transition

The current market downturn followed Bitcoin’s peak of over $106,000 in December 2024, marking its highest price ever. This surge was largely attributed to Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election, which sparked optimism in the market.

However, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, accurately predicted that there would be a crypto sell-off after Trump’s transition of power. Following this, Bitcoin lost more than 18% of its value, and the overall crypto market capitalization dropped by 25%, nearly wiping out all gains from Trump’s victory.

Bitcoin Price Chart Since October 2024

The Worst Selloff in Crypto History: Mt. Gox Crisis

However, the recent selloff is not the worst decline on record. Lucien Bourdon from Trezor explains, “If we’re talking about the worst Bitcoin cycle, the 2014-2015 period was probably the harshest.” During this time, the collapse of the Mt. Gox exchange led to a 70% loss in Bitcoin’s trading volume, and the market experienced an 85% decline.

Falling Prices and Progress in Global Crypto Products

Brett Reeves, Head of BitGo Europe Sales, stated that the current market conditions involve “much more than just falling prices.” In addition to past major price declines, Reeves highlighted progress in global crypto products and regulations, noting that crypto assets are becoming an increasingly integral part of the international financial system.

Industry Leaders: “This Cycle Is Actually a Bull Market”

Some industry leaders see the current market cycle as a bull market. Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, remarked, “Actually, this is the best one.” He elaborated, explaining that the distinguishing feature of this bull market is the absence of hyperinflationary money printing alongside price increases over time. “While this pullback may cause short-term pain, it will pave the way for long-term gains.”

A Different Perspective from Miles Deutscher: “This Market is Different”

Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher believes that terms like “bull market,” “bear market,” “cycle,” or “altseason” are not appropriate for the current market condition. “This is now a different market,” he concluded.

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According to TradingView data, the Bitcoin price alone fell 5% on July 5, and now investors are eyeing the critical levels that the bulls must protect. The first level to watch for popular trader Matthew Hyland is the $52,000 support point.

This has been the base of Bitcoin‘s supertrend indicator on weekly time frames since its all-time high of $73,800 in mid-March.

Supertrend uses the average true range to create the “Supertend line” that determines the buying and selling phases for BTC/USD. The pair has been above the supertrend line since the end of 2022; This was when Bitcoin’s last bear market ended.
When we observe previous Bitcoin bull markets, the current decline still looks modest.

Since 2016, BTC/USD has fallen by 38% multiple times, making the capitulation target $45,750.

Commenting on this phenomenon, Adam Back, founder and CEO of Blockstream, criticized the volatile market sentiment. Instead, he argued that hodlers should invest more in both Bitcoin and shares of MicroStrategy, which has the largest BTC treasury of any public company.

“Reminder, look at the big picture. Previous bull runs have also had a half-dozen -30% declines. We’re currently at about -26% (-27% previously),” he wrote on X.

“Actually, the recent declines don’t seem to be any deeper, but people are forgetting the normal bull market pattern. Don’t panic, buy the dip. or buy some $CMSTR with BTC.”

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital stated that this decline in Bitcoin is normal. He included the following statements in his statements:

“This retracement is 21% deep and 45 days long. In this cycle, the average retracement depth is 22% and the average retracement duration is 42 days,” he calculated. In terms of retracement depth, this is almost an average retracement. In terms of withdrawal duration, this is an above average withdrawal. In the long run, he added in an X post along with a comparative chart, BTC price history is “repeating as we speak.”

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