BTC is only 6% away from its all-time high of $111,700. Despite this surge, the network shows remarkable calmness, with a noticeable drop in transaction counts. 

Bitcoin’s daily transactions, which reached 734,000 in 2023 and 2024, have decreased to between 320,000 and 500,000 daily since early 2025. The main reason for this decline is the reduction in non-monetary transactions related to Taproot and OP_RETURN. Monetary transactions have remained stable, with value transfers steady, while data-carrying transactions have nearly ceased. 

Big Investors Gain More Influence 

Despite the drop in transaction counts, transaction volumes remain high. Daily average transaction volume is around $7.5 billion, with the average value per transaction reaching $36,200. This indicates fewer but larger transactions on the network. 

Supporting this trend, transactions over $100,000 now account for 89% of the network volume, while those between $0-$100,000 have fallen to 11%. These figures clearly show large investors dominating on-chain activities. 

Explosion of Off-Chain Market Volumes 

Spot and derivatives markets play a critical role in BTC’s current dynamics. Centralized exchanges see an average daily spot volume of $10 billion. Futures trading volume reached $57 billion daily last year and hit a record $122 billion at peak. 

Options markets have also grown, with daily average volumes reaching $2.4 billion and some days hitting $5 billion. All these figures reveal off-chain market activity is 7 to 16 times larger than on-chain volume. 

Leverage Increases, Risk Rises 

Leverage levels in derivatives markets are rising. Total open interest stands at around $96.2 billion. Especially since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024, leverage has increased further, bringing higher risk of sudden price swings. Open interest in futures surged from $7.7 billion to $52.8 billion, while options rose from $3.2 billion to $43.4 billion, pushing total derivatives open interest to $114 billion. This shows clear growth and rising investor interest in derivatives. 

Meanwhile, miners’ income from transaction fees has dropped significantly, averaging only $558,000 daily in the last month. This decline indicates a notable decrease in block space demand, mirroring the general drop in transaction counts. 

One notable development is the preference for stablecoin-collateralized positions over crypto-collateralized ones, signaling more cautious and sustainable risk management by investors. 

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Saylor first made this prediction at the 2024 Nashville Bitcoin Conference, stating that Bitcoin could reach that level with an average annual growth rate of 29%. However, he now paints a more optimistic picture. According to his new forecast, Bitcoin could hit this price even before 2045 with a 40% annual return. 

Saylor clearly outlines the key reasons behind this prediction. Accelerating institutional adoption, a more defined regulatory environment, and Bitcoin’s limited supply are the main drivers behind the potential price increase. 

ETFs and Companies Increasing Bitcoin Investments 

Saylor notes that more than 100 publicly traded companies now hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets—a number that continues to grow weekly. Additionally, Bitcoin ETFs are fueling further demand for the cryptocurrency. Currently, these ETFs have attracted $44.29 billion in investments and manage $122.98 billion in assets. 

Moreover, pension funds and endowments are beginning to see Bitcoin as a store of value. This trend is strengthening Bitcoin’s position within the financial system. New banking regulations in the U.S. are also making it easier for Bitcoin to be officially recognized as a digital asset, simplifying the investment process for institutions. 

Limited Supply Drives Demand 

According to Saylor, Bitcoin’s supply is highly restricted. Only 450 new Bitcoins enter the market daily, and this supply is typically consumed quickly by treasury companies and ETFs. This creates strong upward pressure on the price. 

Strategy continues its Bitcoin purchases. The company has planned a $1 billion capital raise, which will primarily be used to buy more Bitcoin and support the company’s needs—reflecting its confidence in its long-term strategy. Japan-based Metaplanet is also joining this trend. The firm aims to increase its Bitcoin investments through a $5.4 billion capital raise. By issuing 5.55 billion new shares, it’s capitalizing on market interest. 

Although Bitcoin is currently trading below $105,000, Saylor remains optimistic. The amount of BTC held on exchanges has dropped to its lowest level in seven years, indicating that institutional investors are still buying. 

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