According to analysis by The Kobeissi Letter based on Bitbo data, the S&P 500 has declined by 15% against Bitcoin this year. This suggests that digital assets are outperforming traditional financial instruments. Bitcoin has once again highlighted this disparity — and it’s not limited to just this year. 

99.98% Drop Against Bitcoin Over 13 Years 

As The Kobeissi Letter notes, the S&P 500 has lost 99.98% of its value against Bitcoin since 2012. This data clearly illustrates how powerful Bitcoin’s long-term returns have been for investors. 

Truly incredible:

The S&P 500 in Bitcoin terms is now DOWN -15% year-to-date.

Since 2012, the S&P 500 in Bitcoin terms is down -99.98%.

We are all witnessing history. https://t.co/DsoHhJQXvo pic.twitter.com/UHETngTqGy

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 11, 2025

Meanwhile, Bitcoin surpassed $118,800 on Coinbase this past Friday. BTC has risen 9% weekly and gained 24% in the first half of 2025. The 24-hour increase stands at 5.5%. This rally is driven by one key factor: massive institutional demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs. 

Charlie Bilello pointed out that Bitcoin hasn’t just outperformed indices — it has also beaten major tech stocks like Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), and Netflix (NFLX). 

Last 10 Years…
Bitcoin $BTC: +40,450%
NVIDIA $NVDA: +34,815%
Tesla $TSLA: +1,702%
Netflix $NFLX: +1,206%
Microsoft $MSFT: +1,199%
Amazon $AMZN: +926%
Meta $META: +751%
Apple $AAPL: +691%
Google $GOOGL: +556%
S&P 500 $SPY: +262%
Gold $GLD: +175%
US Inflation (CPI): +35%

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) July 11, 2025

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Are Attracting Investors 

In 2025, ETF investors quickly turned to Bitcoin. The 12 U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs currently hold 1,264,976 BTC — over 6% of the total Bitcoin supply. According to Bitbo, the market value of these holdings has reached $148.6 billion. 

Thanks to strong demand, spot ETFs became the third-largest fund inflow category in the first half of 2025. Gold and short-term government bonds ranked first and second. This data, shared by State Street, reflects institutional investors’ increasing interest in cryptocurrencies. In fact, last Thursday marked the second-largest daily inflow in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF history, with $1.17 billion in new capital entering these products in just one day. 

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Bitcoin ETF Inflows Show Strong Comeback 

Heading into June 17,  Bitcoin spot ETFs kicked off the week strongly with $408.6 million in daily inflows on June 16 — one of the highest daily figures in recent weeks. Notably: 

• BlackRock’s $IBIT product led with $266.6 million. 
• Fidelity’s $FBTC ETF attracted $83 million. 
• Bitwise’s $BITB pulled in $41.4 million. 

For the week (June 9–13), Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $1.37 billion, marking a solid recovery. 

Ethereum ETFs Diverge with Strong Performance 

This marks the first significant rebound after two weeks of net outflows. Despite stagnant price action, renewed institutional interest reflects directly in ETF flows. As of June 16, Ethereum spot ETFs continue to see substantial inflows. 

The Ethereum side shows even more striking figures: 

Although the inflow streak was interrupted on June 13, by June 16, weekly inflows reached $583 million — the strongest weekly performance since December 2024. 

• BlackRock’s ETHA product led with $381 million.
• Fidelity’s FETH attracted $78.5 million. 

Ethereum ETFs are gaining attention as a diversification tool, particularly due to staking expectations and technical developments. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $106,700, while Ethereum stands at $2,570. 

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BlackRock’s IBIT Leads the Surge

On May 23, the final trading day of the week, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined $211.7 million in net inflows. However, nearly all of that came from BlackRock’s IBIT, which attracted a whopping $430.8 million in a single day. With this, IBIT extended its inflow streak to eight consecutive days.

Meanwhile, outflows were observed in other major funds. Grayscale’s GBTC led with $89.2 million in withdrawals, followed by ARK 21Shares’ ARKB, which posted $73.9 million in outflows.

Bitcoin Hits New All-Time Highs

On May 21, ETF inflows hit $607.1 million, coinciding with Bitcoin breaking its previous all-time high of $109,000. The following day, BTC surged even further, reaching a new peak of $111,970.

As of the latest data, Bitcoin is trading at $108,141.

Slight Cooldown in Market Sentiment

The minor pullback in price over the past 24 hours is mirrored in the broader sentiment across the crypto market. According to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, current market sentiment reads “Greed” with a score of 66, dropping from “Extreme Greed” (78) just one day earlier.

Monthly Inflow Record Within Reach

So far in May, spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated $5.39 billion. With several trading days still remaining, the monthly inflow record of $6.49 billion set in November 2024 may soon be surpassed.

Analysts: Bitcoin Rally Not Overheated Yet

Market experts argue that despite hitting fresh highs, Bitcoin has not entered an overheated phase. Key metrics like funding rates and short-term capital inflows remain moderate compared to past peaks. Additionally, profit-taking by short-term holders appears limited, suggesting more room for growth.

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As of April 25, the 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively saw $380 million in daily inflows. Total inflows for the week climbed to approximately $3.06 billion. The last time Bitcoin ETFs recorded five straight days of positive inflows was the week ending March 21.

April Turns Positive as Inflows Accelerate

ETF analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted this sharp reversal in an April 24 post on X, stating that “Bitcoin ETFs are partying right now.”
Balchunas emphasized how quickly the inflows shifted from first to fifth gear, suggesting that part of this momentum could be fueled by a renewed interest in “basis trade” strategies.

Throughout April, Bitcoin ETFs navigated a volatile market amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. Although 9 of the 18 trading days recorded net outflows, the strong inflows of the past week have flipped the monthly total back to positive territory.
At present, total net inflows for April stand at roughly $2.26 billion.

On the same day, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor shared an ambitious prediction at the Bitwise Invest Bitcoin Corporations Investor Day, stating that BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF could become “the largest ETF in the world within the next decade.”

BlackRock’s IBIT Collects Top Honors

Just days earlier, on April 23, BlackRock’s IBIT was crowned “Best New ETF” at the annual ETF awards. In addition, IBIT secured the title of “Crypto ETP of the Year,” further boosting its reputation among institutional investors.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s spot price continues to hover around the $95,000 mark. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $94,613, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Institutional players are also ramping up their bullish projections.
Billion-dollar asset manager ARK Invest recently raised its bull case price target for Bitcoin from $1.5 million to $2.4 million by the end of 2030. The revision is driven by Bitcoin’s growing acceptance as “digital gold” and stronger institutional demand.

ARK Invest also adjusted its bear and base case forecasts, increasing them to $500,000 and $1.2 million respectively.

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Investor Appetite Rises Amid US-China Softening

A recent statement by US President Donald Trump, indicating that import tariffs on Chinese goods will be “significantly reduced,” was met with a positive reaction from the markets. This shift in tone encouraged investors to return to riskier assets.

On April 22, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows exceeding $912 million, marking the highest daily investment since January 21. The surge in ETF demand indicates a notable improvement in investor sentiment.

Boosted by these inflows, Bitcoin price climbed above $93,000, hitting its highest level in the last seven weeks.

Institutional Demand Could Accelerate the Cycle

According to analysts, increasing institutional interest and the growing role of ETFs in the market could speed up Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle. This raises the possibility of BTC reaching new all-time highs before the end of 2025.

Weaker Dollar Strengthens Bitcoin’s Safe-Haven Appeal

A major driver behind renewed interest in Bitcoin is the ongoing decline in the US dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped by 9% since the start of 2025, hitting 98.8 — its lowest level since April 2022.

Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, stated that “a weakening dollar and increasing correlation with gold” make Bitcoin an attractive hedge against economic uncertainty.

Bitcoin No Longer in Tech’s Shadow

According to analyst Iliya Kalchev, both crypto and traditional markets are “walking a tightrope between political tensions and economic realities.” However, Bitcoin has managed a strong comeback, thanks to ETF inflows, institutional interest, and a softer dollar.

Kalchev noted that Bitcoin’s resilience is reshaping the market’s view of what constitutes a safe asset, adding that the asset is now being priced more through a macroeconomic lens than as a tech stock.

More Gold, Less Nasdaq

Nansen CEO Alex Svanevik echoed this sentiment, pointing out that Bitcoin has matured over the past two weeks and is now “behaving less like Nasdaq, more like gold.” However, he also warned that fears of a global economic slowdown might limit BTC’s short-term upside.

Meanwhile, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said on April 21 that this could be the “last opportunity” to buy Bitcoin under $100,000. He suggested that upcoming US Treasury buybacks could trigger the next major price rally.

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Bitcoin ETF Outflows Continue

On April 11, Bitcoin investors withdrew a total of 1 million dollars from spot ETFs. The largest outflows came from the BITB fund. While there was an inflow to the ARKB fund, other funds remained neutral.

• BITB: -12.30M

• ARKB: +11.30M million dollars

• GBTC, IBIT, FBTC, BTCO, HODL, BRRR, EZBC, BTCW, BTC: 0

Although there was an inflow of +11.30 million dollars into the ARKB fund, it was not enough to offset the overall outflows.

What’s the Situation with Ethereum ETFs?

While Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows, Ethereum ETFs recorded a total net outflow of 29.20 million dollars. Outflows in Ethereum spot ETFs were higher compared to Bitcoin ETFs, and no inflows were observed.

• ETHW: -3.10 million dollars

• ETHE: -26.10 million dollars

• ETH, EZET, CETH, QETH, FETH, ETHV, ETHA: 0

Increasing Outflows in Crypto ETFs: Economic Uncertainty is Pressuring the Market

The cryptocurrency market has been under pressure lately due to heavy outflows from ETFs. The outflows observed on April 11, 2025, from both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs show that investors are becoming more risk-averse.

The -12.30 million dollar outflow from BITB, along with only a +11.30 million dollar inflow to ARKB, created a negative overall position. On the Ethereum side, the massive -26.10 million dollar outflow from ETHE has intensified concerns in the market.

Macroeconomic Developments as a Pressure Factor

Experts note that these outflows cannot be explained solely by technical analysis. In recent days, particularly the significant increase in import tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, has put serious pressure on the markets. The new tariffs on China, reaching up to 145%, have raised supply chain costs, and investors are starting to adopt defensive positions against potential inflationary pressures.

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The changing relationship between Bitcoin and traditional financial markets is under pressure as global investors shy away from riskier assets, and trade tensions between the U.S. and other countries escalate.

On April 8, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw net outflows of over $326 million, marking the fourth consecutive day of significant selling. These data were provided by Farside Investors.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) experienced the largest daily outflow, with $252 million, the biggest since February 26. The source of the selling pressure was the market turbulence that followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of reciprocal import tariffs on April 2. This development caused a $5 trillion wipeout in the S&P 500 within just two days.

Bitcoin ETF flows, U.S. dollars, millions. Source: Farside Investors

The crypto market turmoil following the tariff announcement highlighted once again the “emerging relationship” between Bitcoin and traditional markets. Lennix Lai, the global commercial director of OKX exchange, commented:

“Although Bitcoin has dropped by 26% since January, the relative resistance shown in the first two days after the tariff announcement— a 6% drop compared to Nasdaq’s 11% drop— reveals a subtle dynamic between crypto and traditional assets.”

Bitcoin, initially holding above $82,000, fell below $75,000 on Sunday, April 6.

Some industry leaders suggested that the weekend sell-off was related to Bitcoin’s 24/7 liquidity mechanisms, which made Bitcoin the only major liquid asset during the weekend. Bitcoin continues to be tightly linked to global liquidity conditions. Lai also stated:

“While I saw some divergence in the early stages, I believe Bitcoin is still dependent on global liquidity conditions, which means caution should be exercised considering potential market stress. Meanwhile, gold continues to serve as a hedge against geopolitical instability.” Lai added, “The most important thing here is not just the price movement but also Bitcoin’s growing conceptual impact — more and more people see Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset in the chaotic environment of traditional markets.”

Other analysts also consider increasing fiat money supply as the main determinant of Bitcoin’s price.

“Bitcoin is traded based on the market’s expectations regarding the future supply of fiat money,” said Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer at Maelstrom.

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Negative Trend Continues in Bitcoin ETFs: Large Outflows Draw Attention

The selling pressure on Bitcoin ETFs shows no signs of slowing down. According to the latest data, a net outflow of $93.2 million was recorded across Bitcoin ETFs. However, the majority of this outflow came from Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETF (FBTC), which saw a $93.2 million withdrawal. Meanwhile, other major ETFs (GBTC, IBIT, ARKB, BITB, BTCO, HODL, BRRR, EZBC, BTCW) remained unchanged with no recorded outflows.

This trend indicates a declining demand for Bitcoin investment funds, with FBTC’s significant outflow suggesting a drop in investor risk appetite. Broader market sentiment and macroeconomic factors could be driving such large-scale withdrawals.

In the coming days, Bitcoin price movements and investor sentiment will be closely monitored through ETF inflow and outflow data. If this trend persists, selling pressure on Bitcoin could intensify.

Limited Inflows into Ethereum ETFs: $4.7 Million Movement

Ethereum ETFs recorded a net inflow of $4.7 million, according to the latest data. However, this inflow was solely directed toward the ETHE ETF, while other major Ethereum ETFs (ETH, ETHA, ETHW, FETH, ETHV, EZET, CETH, QETH) remained unchanged, with no inflows or outflows recorded.

This limited inflow suggests that investors are taking a cautious approach toward Ethereum. While Bitcoin ETFs experienced significant outflows, the fact that Ethereum ETFs saw even a slight inflow is noteworthy.

In the coming days, whether this trend continues will be crucial for Ethereum’s price movements and overall investor sentiment.

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In March, over $1.67 billion flowed out of US spot Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs). However, as BTC’s market price neared $85,000, investors ended the outflow streak with a $13.3 million inflow on March 12.

As of March 12, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $35.4 million inflow over two days, while spot Ether ETFs saw a single inflow event on March 4, totaling $14.6 million.

Bitcoin ETFs See First Inflows After Seven-Day Decline

According to Sosovalue, Bitcoin ETFs’ cumulative net inflows were confirmed with a $13.3 million inflow on March 12, signaling a temporary halt in Bitcoin ETF outflows.

On that day, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total trading volume of $2.01 billion, marking the lowest daily value since February 20. The inflows came from three BTC funds: BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB), and Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF (BTC).

Ethereum ETF Market Sees Limited Recovery

On the Ethereum side, inflows were recorded on a single day, supported by Fidelity Ethereum Fund (FETH), Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW), Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), and Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH).

Macroeconomic Risks and Geopolitical Tensions Pressure ETFs

The broader market downturn and macroeconomic uncertainties played a major role in ETF outflows, driven by geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and bearish investor sentiment. Analysts suggest that the lack of concrete implementation or unmet expectations regarding President Donald Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve plan also exacerbated selling pressure.

Despite Bitcoin maintaining levels above $80,000, market analysts warn that upcoming European Union retaliatory tariffs could introduce greater volatility, further influencing Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

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Overall, the trading volume of the 12 Bitcoin ETFs amounted to $1.22 billion on Monday, slightly higher than the previous days. On the other hand, spot Ethereum ETFs saw no flows on Monday, after recording net inflows of $7.39 million on Friday and net outflows of $3.2 million on Thursday. Their total trading volume dropped to $118.43 million on Monday.

Might interest you: What is BabyDoge?

Despite these inflows, Bitcoin’s price dipped by 1.4% over the past 24 hours, trading at $62,757, while Ether slid 2.09% to $2,442.

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