According to SoSoValue data, inflows were heavily concentrated midweek. Wednesday alone saw approximately $844 million in net inflows, the strongest single-day demand recorded so far for spot Bitcoin ETF. Tuesday followed closely with $754 million in inflows. Toward the end of the week, sentiment softened. Friday registered roughly $395 million in outflows. Still, that pullback did little to offset the scale of midweek accumulation.

During the same period, Bitcoin traded around the $95,145 level. ETF absorption, however, pointed to a signal that extended beyond short-term price action.

Supply Tightens as Risk Dynamics Shift

Vincent Liu, Chief Investment Officer at Kronos Research, said recent ETF inflows indicate that long-term investors are returning after a period of caution. According to Liu, demand flowing through regulated vehicles is gradually tightening effective supply and altering the market’s risk balance.

On-chain indicators reinforce this view. Large holders—commonly referred to as whales—have significantly reduced net selling compared with late December. This easing has weakened a key source of distribution pressure that weighed on prices in recent months. Combined with steady ETF buying, the market is beginning to feel structurally tighter, even as volatility remains elevated.

That said, the picture is still fragile. Liu cautioned that current conditions should not yet be interpreted as a confirmed trend reversal. While renewed inflows and declining whale sales suggest the formation of more durable institutional demand, the shift remains in its early stages.

Related: Mixed Signals in Spot ETFs as Bitcoin Turns Negative

Ether ETF Demand Loses Momentum

While Bitcoin ETFs posted a strong showing, Ether ETFs experienced a more uneven week. Early sessions reflected solid demand, with roughly $290 million in net inflows on Tuesday and about $215 million on Wednesday. Momentum faded toward the end of the week, however, culminating in approximately $180 million in net outflows on Friday.

As a result, Ether ETFs closed the week with net inflows of around $479 million. ETH hovered near $3,314, but investor interest appeared notably less consistent than on the Bitcoin side.

Why It Matters

Capital entering through ETF channels reshapes market structure rather than merely driving short-term price moves. Persistent buying allows funds to absorb sell pressure during pullbacks, making sharp drawdowns easier to digest. This mechanism, however, only translates into a meaningful trend if inflows remain consistent over time.

Too Early to Call a Sustained Rally

According to Bitcoin macro intelligence newsletter Ecoinometrics, recent spikes in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have tended to trigger short-lived price jumps rather than sustained uptrends. When inflows slow, gains are often retraced. The publication argues that several consecutive weeks of strong ETF demand are required to shift the broader trend.

With cumulative ETF flows still deeply negative, isolated positive days may help stabilize prices but are unlikely to support a durable rally on their own. For now, the market offers no clear directional signal. Institutional capital may be returning, yet whether this marks a lasting shift will depend on the pace and consistency of ETF flows in the weeks ahead.

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Institutional Players Tighten Control Over Bitcoin Supply

Bitcoin ownership has become increasingly concentrated among institutions, custodians, and large holders in 2025. According to Glassnode, major entities now control approximately 5.94 million BTC. This figure represents close to 30 percent of the circulating Bitcoin supply. As a result, the influence of retail investors over available supply continues to decline.

Moreover, this concentration reflects Bitcoin’s transition into a maturing institutional asset. Large holders tend to accumulate with long-term strategies, which reduces liquid supply in the market. Consequently, price movements are increasingly shaped by institutional portfolio decisions rather than short-term retail flows. This shift also changes volatility dynamics across market cycles.

Why does it matter?

As Bitcoin supply concentrates in institutional hands, price discovery becomes more sensitive to corporate and fund-level decisions. This alters risk behavior and strengthens Bitcoin’s connection to traditional financial structures.

ETFs, Corporations, and Governments Accumulate BTC

Publicly listed companies currently hold around 1.07 million BTC. Strategy remains the dominant corporate holder with 660,624 BTC, far ahead of its peers. MARA Holdings follows with 53,250 BTC, while Twenty One Capital holds 43,514 BTC. Japan-based Metaplanet controls 30,823 BTC, closely followed by Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company and Bullish.

At the same time, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively manage approximately 1.31 million BTC. Government wallets also play a notable role, holding an estimated 620,000 BTC. However, cryptocurrency exchanges remain the single largest category. Glassnode data shows exchanges holding roughly 2.94 million BTC, underscoring their central role in market liquidity.

Major Bitcoin holder categories

• Public companies with Bitcoin treasuries

• US spot Bitcoin ETFs

• Government-controlled wallets

• Centralized cryptocurrency exchanges

Price Pressure Persists Despite Institutional Confidence

Despite growing institutional accumulation, Bitcoin’s price action still reflects broader macro conditions. This week, BTC briefly dipped below the 90,000 dollar level amid weakness in the technology sector and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. This movement highlights Bitcoin’s continued correlation with risk assets.

Nevertheless, institutional conviction remains intact. Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood, purchased 13,700 shares of its own Bitcoin ETF, ARKB, during the pullback. The acquisition, valued at roughly 417,000 dollars, signals sustained confidence. Meanwhile, Strategy has maintained its position in the Nasdaq 100 index for a full year, even as debate continues around the long-term sustainability of crypto treasury models.

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Institutional Interest and Bitcoin’s Bullish Outlook

Bailey, the founder of Bitcoin Magazine and BTC Inc., stated, “This is the first time we’ve seen real institutional buy-ins.” According to him, governments, banks, insurers, corporations, and even pension funds will eventually hold Bitcoin.

“We haven’t even captured 0.01% of the total addressable market (TAM). We’re going so much higher. Dream big,” Bailey added.

He emphasized that earlier institutional involvement was merely marginal bets.

In the last two years, institutional exposure to crypto has accelerated, with Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries pushing total holdings beyond $100 billion.

Possible Risks of a Bear Market

Despite Bailey’s optimism, not all experts agree. CK Zheng of ZX Squared Capital noted that crypto remains highly correlated with the stock market. If equities enter a bear phase, crypto is likely to follow.

Some venture capital firms have also warned that many corporate crypto treasuries may not survive long term, potentially triggering the next bear market.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s signals toward interest rate cuts and Jerome Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole have fueled risk appetite, boosting demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum in the short term.

Analysts Present Different Scenarios

Australian analyst Pav Hundal said markets are currently in a risk-on phase, but eventually capital could rotate back into fixed-income assets. In his view, “The path of least resistance is higher for Bitcoin,” though unexpected macro shocks could still derail momentum.

Ryan McMillin of Merkle Tree Capital suggested that the current cycle may peak around Q2 2026, followed by a mild bear market once global liquidity contracts.

However, McMillin also pointed out the possibility of avoiding a bear market altogether, drawing parallels with gold’s performance after the launch of ETFs in the early 2000s, when the asset entered an eight-year uptrend.

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Moving Beyond Speculation: A New Era for Blockchain Startups

Unlike its previous investments, which were solely funded from its own balance sheet, Galaxy’s new fund brings in external capital for the first time. The fund focuses on projects offering real-world utility, such as stablecoin infrastructure, DeFi applications, and innovative blockchain use cases that go far beyond speculative trading.

Mike Giampapa, General Partner at Galaxy Digital, emphasized this shift:

“We’re entering a phase where blockchain technology is being used for more tangible and practical solutions — not just hype-driven speculation.”

Strategic Growth Post-FTX Collapse

Although the idea of launching an external fund had been in the works for some time, Galaxy chose to act after the collapse of FTX, which reshaped the landscape for crypto investments.

“While the market was stabilizing, we witnessed the silent rise of the stablecoin revolution. That’s when we knew it was time to expand our venture strategy,” Giampapa said.

The fund is anchored by Galaxy itself, holding both General Partner (GP) and Limited Partner (LP) stakes. While other investors remain unnamed, they reportedly include family offices and fund-of-funds associated with Galaxy’s asset management clients.

$50 Million Already Deployed

Galaxy held its first close at $113 million in July 2024 and has already allocated $50 million across promising startups. Notable investments include Monad, a performance-centric blockchain, and Ethena, a yield-generating stablecoin platform.

Galaxy Digital’s Expanding Footprint

Founded in 2018 by ex-Goldman Sachs partner Mike Novogratz, Galaxy Digital has grown into a diversified crypto powerhouse. The firm now spans asset management, Bitcoin ETFs, mining operations, and a robust venture capital arm.

Despite reporting a $295 million loss in Q1 2025 due to restructuring and market conditions, the company boasts $7 billion in assets under management. Galaxy also saw its largest trading volume on November 5, 2024 — the day of the U.S. presidential election — when Novogratz’s net worth reportedly surged by $600 million to reach $4.6 billion.

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BlackRock and Fidelity Maintain Leadership 

BlackRock’s IBIT fund recorded the largest inflow of the week, receiving $278.9 million on Wednesday. It was followed by Fidelity’s FBTC fund with $104.4 million in inflows. Bitwise’s BITB fund experienced an outflow of $11.3 million. 

Some ETFs, however, did not report inflows. ARK Invest and Valkyrie funds did not attract new investments during this period, indicating investors’ preference for large, low-cost funds. 

Grayscale’s GBTC fund was not part of this trend, experiencing an outflow of $16.4 million. Meanwhile, Grayscale’s low-cost new product, Mini Trust, also saw a notable outflow of $10.1 million. 

Bitcoin Price Holds Steady 

Amid rising geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin traded between $104,000 and $105,000. This stable range suggests there was no market panic. Funding rates remained positive, and derivatives markets continued to show upward momentum. 

Crypto analytics platform Santiment noted Bitcoin’s resilience during this geopolitical period is similar to previous conflicts, such as the 2022 Russia-Ukraine and 2023 Israel-Palestine crises. 

Institutional Confidence Strengthens Bitcoin’s Power 

Since April 17, spot Bitcoin ETFs have received a total of $11.2 billion in new investments. So far, $46.3 billion has been invested in 11 major Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. BlackRock’s IBIT fund leads with $50.6 billion, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC fund with $11.5 billion in assets. 

The large inflows to Bitcoin ETFs reinforce institutional confidence. Especially during volatile geopolitical periods, investors’ continued interest in Bitcoin underscores digital assets’ potential as a safe haven. 

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The market recently experienced a significant downturn that left investors reeling. Despite minor recoveries, prices have yet to reach desired levels. These drops appear to have impacted not only cryptocurrency investors but also more traditional investment groups.

Institutional and traditional investors, particularly those affected by sudden Bitcoin price drops, have been exiting Bitcoin ETFs.

Yesterday, BlackRock’s IBIT ETF saw $29.46 million in new capital inflows, while Fidelity’s FBTC ETF recorded $113.6 million in outflows. Overall, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $284 million on January 13.

A similar trend was observed in Ethereum spot ETFs. As of January 13, a total net outflow of $39.43 million was reported, marking the fourth consecutive day of outflows.

BlackRock’s ETHA ETF recorded the largest net inflow yesterday at $12.89 million, while Grayscale’s ETH ETF stood out with a notable net outflow of $37.84 million.

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Strong inflows were recorded between January 3 and January 6, with January 6 alone seeing investors pour $978.6 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund led the way with $370.2 million in inflows, followed by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF at $209 million, and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF at $153 million.

Other popular funds, including the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF and Grayscale’s GBTC and BTC funds, collectively attracted over $70 million in investments. VanEck Bitcoin ETF received $17.3 million, while Franklin Bitcoin ETF saw $8.9 million in inflows.

However, not all funds benefited from this surge. Invesco, Valkyrie, and WisdomTree’s spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded no inflows on January 6. Overall, spot Bitcoin ETFs garnered a total of $36.9 billion in net inflows.

Could This Impact Bitcoin’s (BTC) Price?

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, predicts Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by 2025. Similarly, VanEck forecasts that Bitcoin may surpass $180,000.

A report published by Binance on October 25 indicated that 80% of demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs comes from retail investors. However, industry analysts expect institutional interest to grow, particularly as more centralized exchanges emerge by 2025.

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According to Farside Investors data, the largest outflows came from Grayscale’s GBTC fund, which saw a drop of $208.6 million. ARK Invest’s ARKB fund also saw a decline of $108.4 million.

These outflows coincided with Bitcoin’s (BTC) price falling to $96,409 and more than $1 billion in market-wide liquidations during the same period.

According to Sosovalue data, the total net asset value of Bitcoin ETFs decreased to $109.7 billion as of December 19, a significant drop from $121.7 billion on December 17.

Market Impact

The Bitcoin ETF outflows coincided with the drop in BTC price, leading to a total net outflow of $732.4 million from crypto ETFs. Bitcoin’s market dominance remained at 57.4%.

An analyst mentioned that the ongoing market decline may be short-lived, stating that the market was “completely unprepared for bad news,” which led to the sharp downturn.

In the U.S., President-elect Donald Trump’s administration is expected to be pro-crypto. His promises of innovation have already pushed BTC price above $107,000, restoring optimism in the market.

However, U.S. investors faced some uncertainty after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced plans for only two rate cuts in 2025. This announcement caused the S&P 500 to drop, which has since affected the crypto market.

“Buy the Dip” Sentiment Peaks

Crypto analysis firm Santiment reported on December 19 that the ratio of social media discussions around “buying the dip” had reached its highest level in over eight months.

The social dominance score related to “buying the dip” hit 0.061, a level last seen on April 12, when BTC price dropped below $70,000.

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BlackRock’s IBIT product leads the pack with 521,164 Bitcoins, followed by Grayscale’s converted GBTC fund (214,217 Bitcoins) and Fidelity’s FBTC (199,183 Bitcoins).

Since January, Bitcoin ETFs have seen over $33 billion in net inflows, with $2.4 billion flowing in just last week. During this time, Bitcoin’s price soared by 130%, surpassing $100,000.

Satoshi Nakamoto’s Holdings
Satoshi Nakamoto is estimated to own around 1.1 million Bitcoins based on early mining activity analyses. However, experts suggest the figure could range between 600,000 and 1.5 million Bitcoins.

With a current market value exceeding $100 billion, Satoshi’s untouched coins remain shrouded in mystery regarding their true value.

Institutional Players and Governments Join the Scene
Companies like MicroStrategy highlight Bitcoin’s growing appeal, holding a staggering 402,100 Bitcoins, making it the largest corporate Bitcoin owner.

Meanwhile, the U.S. government leads among states with 208,109 Bitcoins from seized funds.

The rapid rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs continues to fuel optimism for digital assets’ future, drawing significant attention from investors worldwide.

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Spot Ether ETFs in the U.S. recorded their largest single-day inflow in history and marked the ninth consecutive day of positive trading. According to preliminary data from Farside Investors and decentralized news aggregator Tree News, a total of $431.5 million flowed into nine spot Ether ETFs on December 5.

This broke the previous record of $333 million on November 29, becoming the largest daily inflow since the funds launched on July 23. Spot Ether ETFs have maintained a net positive flow since November 21, accumulating over $1.3 billion in the past two weeks.

This significant inflow day pushed the total net inflows above $1 billion, continuing to rise steadily as the outflow from Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust slowed down.

• The BlackRock iShares Ethereum Trust accounted for the majority of the inflows, with a record $295.7 million, bringing its total to $2.3 billion.
• Fidelity’s Ethereum Fund saw an inflow of $113.6 million, while Grayscale’s Ethereum Mini Trust recorded $30.7 million and the Bitwise Ethereum ETF had $6.6 million.
• Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust, on the other hand, registered an outflow of $15.1 million, and the other funds reported zero flows.

Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. continue to show strong momentum, with a total net inflow of $747.8 million for 11 funds on December 5. According to CoinGlass, the majority of this figure came from the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust, which recorded an inflow of $751.6 million. In contrast, Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust experienced an outflow of $148.8 million.

Ether Strength

The BlackRock ETF has seen nearly $2.5 billion in inflows over the past five trading days, bringing its total to an impressive $34 billion since launch.

Meanwhile, Ether ETF inflows have picked up pace as spot ETH prices surged 16% over the past two weeks, reaching an eight-month high of $3,946 on December 5, according to CoinGecko.

Analysts suggest that Ether’s strength against Bitcoin (ETH/BTC ratio) could increase further over the next six to 12 months after recent underperformance. According to TradingView, the ratio currently stands at 0.04 and has risen by 14.5% over the past month.

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