Crypto Market Cap Reclaims $3 Trillion — Cautiously

With the latest upside move, total cryptocurrency market capitalization has once again climbed above $3 trillion. This level has acted as a critical battleground between buyers and sellers over the past several weeks. While the return above this psychological threshold is notable, market participants remain unconvinced that it reflects renewed demand.

Instead, analysts describe the move as a technical response following prolonged selling pressure. After weeks of declines, lower price levels naturally attracted short-term buying, but conviction remains limited.

Technical Bounce, Not a Structural Recovery

According to FxPro Chief Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich, the current market strength should not be mistaken for a broader turnaround. He emphasizes that while the market is attempting to grow again, it lacks the structural support required for a sustained recovery.

Risk appetite has improved only marginally. The fear and greed index rising to 25 suggests traders are stepping away from extreme pessimism, yet remain far from embracing risk. This cautious positioning reflects lingering disappointment after the optimism seen earlier in the year faded.

Bitcoin Trapped in a Narrow Range

Bitcoin traded near $88,000 during Asian market hours, testing the upper boundary of a range that has held since early last week. The inability to decisively break higher highlights the fragility of short-term momentum.

At current levels, Bitcoin remains roughly 30% below its 2025 peak and is also trading below prices seen at the start of the year. This underperformance continues to shape investor psychology, reinforcing a sense of fatigue rather than confidence.

Fourth Quarter Performance Raises Red Flags

Seasonal data further supports a cautious outlook. According to CoinGlass figures, Bitcoin has declined by more than 22% so far in the fourth quarter. This places 2025 among the weakest year-end periods since 2018, outside of full-scale bear markets.

While the fourth quarter has historically delivered strong rallies, it has also produced sharp drawdowns during periods of tightening liquidity and macroeconomic uncertainty. Recent trading patterns reflect this vulnerability, with gains made during Asian and European sessions frequently fading once U.S. markets open.

For now, Bitcoin’s trajectory suggests resilience remains limited, and the market continues to search for a durable catalyst.

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A Historical Bitcoin Pattern: Major Corrections Followed by New Highs

Balchunas notes that the current pullback is not extraordinary when viewed within Bitcoin’s nearly fifteen-year price history. The asset has gone through far deeper corrections in the past, each of which was followed by a remarkable recovery and the establishment of new records.

For this reason, the analyst argues that Bitcoin shares a similar long-term trajectory with technology giants such as Apple and Amazon, both of which have delivered sustained returns despite periods of significant volatility. In his assessment, the present downturn should be interpreted as another chapter in Bitcoin’s broader resilience narrative rather than a sign of structural weakness.

The Unease of Traditional Finance: “Irritating the Right People”

Balchunas also highlights Bitcoin’s long-standing ability to disrupt and unsettle traditional economic and financial circles. One of the asset’s most distinctive traits, he suggests, is its capacity to challenge the status quo and “irritate the right people” over time. This disruptive quality, he argues, has been a key component of Bitcoin’s appeal and a major reason why it continues to attract strong interest among both retail and institutional investors.

High Volatility Comes With a Warning

Despite his generally supportive stance, Balchunas cautions investors not to overlook Bitcoin’s inherently volatile nature. He compares this volatility to a “hot sauce effect”—a characteristic that can enhance the experience in small amounts but becomes overwhelming in excess. For this reason, he emphasizes the importance of evaluating risk tolerance carefully and maintaining a balanced approach when allocating capital to Bitcoin or other highly volatile assets.

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Investors Seize the “Buy the Dip” Opportunity

The recent uptick in Bitcoin’s price appears to be driven by investors taking advantage of the market’s correction. Over the past few weeks, many cryptocurrencies have fallen more than 20% from their monthly highs, entering a short-term bearish phase. However, the latest rebound suggests that traders are once again stepping in to capitalize on discounted prices.

Market optimism has also been fueled by growing diplomatic expectations between the United States and China. Investors are closely watching the anticipated meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, which is expected to take place later this month during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea.

Trade Tensions and Market Reactions

Relations between the two global powers have become increasingly strained. China has raised its average tariffs on U.S. imports to over 32%, now covering nearly all American goods. This escalation has added significant pressure to global trade and investor sentiment.

Beijing has also announced plans to implement export controls on rare earth materials and magnets, a move that could disrupt U.S. manufacturing given that China controls about 80% of the global market share in this sector.

Additionally, China has halted soybean imports from the U.S., instructed local companies to avoid Nvidia chips, and launched an investigation into Qualcomm. In response, the Trump administration is preparing to impose new tariffs of up to 130% on Chinese exports starting November 1, a steep increase from the current 30% minimum rate.

A potential trade deal between the two nations would likely be bullish for both equities and crypto markets, as it could ease geopolitical tensions and lower inflation risks. Such an agreement would also support the Federal Reserve’s ongoing interest rate cuts, reinforcing a more favorable macroeconomic environment for risk assets like Bitcoin.

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Gold Breaks Records as Bitcoin Slips

Following U.S. President Donald Trump’s social media post claiming that “prices are WAY DOWN in the USA, with virtually no inflation,” gold prices jumped. The precious metal climbed by 1%, reaching $3,485 per ounce, marking a new record high.

In contrast, Bitcoin took a downturn at the start of the week. According to Coinbase data, the leading cryptocurrency slid to $107,290, its lowest point since early July. This marks a correction of over 13% from the mid-August peak.

Has the Gold-Bitcoin Correlation Broken?

For the past two and a half years, gold, Bitcoin, and even the Nasdaq have often moved in tandem. Recently, however, this correlation has weakened. Market analyst Tony Sycamore attributes the shift to Bitcoin’s “dual identity”:

• At times, Bitcoin is treated as a store of value or safe-haven asset.

• At other times, it behaves more like a risk-on speculative asset.

This view is echoed by Vince Yang, co-founder of Ethereum layer-2 platform zkLink. According to Yang, gold remains the classic safe-haven asset, while Bitcoin is more closely tied to liquidity conditions and overall market risk. As a result, the two assets don’t always move side by side—instead, they can balance each other out.

Could They Realign Again?

Despite the current divergence, Sycamore believes the relationship between gold and Bitcoin could reassert itself. He suggests that if Trump pushes for an overheated economy and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates while inflation persists, both assets could climb higher together.

“The key question,” he notes, “is at what level Bitcoin manages to stabilize and build momentum again.”

What Does Historical Data Say?

Past market cycles show that Bitcoin often lags behind gold’s rallies by several months.

• In 2020, during the pandemic, gold crossed above $2,000 per ounce.

• The following year, Bitcoin surged to new all-time highs.

Analysts argue that today’s divergence may also be temporary, with BTC simply trailing behind gold’s momentum.

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124,841 Investors Liquidated in the Last 24 Hours

In the last 24 hours, there has been significant movement in the cryptocurrency market. 124,841 investors were liquidated due to a massive liquidation wave, with the total liquidation amount surpassing $331.9 million.

This large-scale liquidation can be attributed to the sharp volatility and price fluctuations in the crypto market. Traders engaging in leveraged trading suffered significant losses due to sudden price declines, leading to inevitable liquidations. This serves as a cautionary reminder for investors to be more vigilant in managing risk.

What Is Liquidation and Why Is It Important?

Liquidation refers to the automatic closure of an investor’s position following a margin call. In leveraged trades, when the market moves unfavorably, positions can be liquidated. Given the high leverage ratios in the crypto market, sudden price movements can quickly lead to liquidations.

Increase in Liquidations in the Crypto Market

The liquidation wave in the last 24 hours is primarily linked to the sudden drop in the values of major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Due to the volatile nature of cryptocurrencies, investors are often encouraged to use leverage for short-term gains, but this can also lead to significant losses.

These sudden and large liquidations often lead to increased volatility in the market, creating opportunities for traders. However, they can also pose significant risks for long-term investors.

What Investors Should Pay Attention To

Sudden market fluctuations, especially for those opening leveraged positions, can be highly dangerous. When trading in the cryptocurrency market, it is essential to implement proper risk management strategies and avoid excessive leverage.

Additionally, after liquidation waves, prices may continue to fluctuate, presenting new opportunities for investors. However, it’s crucial to remember that these opportunities come with inherent risks.

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This conflict had a major impact on global markets, and cryptocurrencies were also hit hard by these negative developments.

Bitcoin Dropped to $60,200 Due to Liquidations

On October 1, Iran launched a massive missile attack on Israel. This attack, which was recorded as the second this year, came after a similar attack in April. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that a harsh response would be given.

These developments increased uncertainty in global markets and negatively affected cryptocurrencies. With the escalation of tensions, the value of Bitcoin experienced a rapid decline and fell 6% from $64,000 to below $60,200. This decline triggered massive liquidations, with liquidations reaching $523.37 million in the last 24 hours, according to Coinglass data.

Long positions were the most affected by this process, with $451 million worth of positions liquidated. Short positions lost more than $71 million. Market volatility caused 154,011 investors to liquidate their positions, with a single order worth $12.66 million on the BTCUSDT trading pair on Binance being the largest liquidation.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs also saw significant outflows. According to SoSoValue data, a total outflow of $242.53 million occurred on October 1. This was the largest outflow in almost a month and the third largest outflow in the last five months.

Might interest you: What is BabyDoge?

Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) experienced the largest outflow, losing $144.67 million. Other funds, such as the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB), also saw significant pullbacks. However, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) bucked the trend, bringing in $40.84 million and continuing without an outflow for 15 days.

These market events also affected investor sentiment. The crypto fear and greed index fell into the “fear” category, falling from a neutral level of 50 the day before to 42. This change shows how sensitive the market is to external geopolitical events and how strongly these events can affect investor behavior.

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