The Halving Cycle May No Longer Be the Main Driver

PlanB noted that Bitcoin’s history has largely been analyzed through the lens of four-year cycles tied to halving events, but he believes this framework is statistically weak. “Three cycles are not enough to build a reliable pattern,” he stated, emphasizing that there’s “absolutely no guarantee” the next market peak will arrive 18 months after the most recent halving.

Instead, PlanB suggested that Bitcoin’s next major top could occur in 2026, 2027, or even 2028, stressing that the average price levels over time matter more than short-term peaks or corrections.

A New Phase Yet to Begin

According to PlanB, the current market has not yet undergone a significant “phase transition.” He believes either a major upward move is still on the horizon, or Bitcoin has entered a more stable regime dominated by institutional investors, fund mandates, and portfolio rebalancing. In either case, PlanB considers the long-term outlook for Bitcoin to remain highly positive.

Long-Term Liquidity Takes the Spotlight on Bitcoin

Echoing this sentiment, on-chain analyst Willy Woo pointed out that the current market cycle differs from the previous one. During the last bull run, liquidity primarily came from short-term derivatives markets, whereas this cycle appears to be supported by stronger long-term spot liquidity.

Meanwhile, analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that Bitcoin’s recent dip below $104,000 caused panic among investors who feared the start of a new bear market. Yet, the subsequent rebound helped ease some of those concerns — though sentiment remains fragile.

Bitcoin Price Dips Again

In early Tuesday trading hours in Asia, Bitcoin’s price fell more than 3%, dropping to around $107,700 before stabilizing near the key $108,000 support level.

Overall, the crypto market remains highly volatile and cautious. Analysts agree that to sustain a new upward trend, Bitcoin will need strong fundamental drivers and renewed investor confidence in the months ahead.

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What is the Puell Multiple Indicator?

The Puell Multiple is a metric calculated by comparing Bitcoin miners’ daily revenue (in USD) to the 365-day moving average of their daily revenue. Named after its developer, David Puell, this indicator was introduced in 2019 and has since become significant in Bitcoin cycle analysis.

Miners secure the Bitcoin network and earn block rewards and transaction fees. However, due to their fixed costs (electricity, hardware, etc.), miners often sell their Bitcoin, creating sell pressure in the market. The Puell Multiple measures this dynamic to help understand the market’s current phase.

The calculation formula is straightforward:

• Puell Multiple = Daily Miner Revenue (USD) / 365-Day Average Miner Revenue (USD)

This ratio shows how high or low miners’ revenue is compared to historical averages.

How is the Puell Multiple Indicator Interpreted?

The Puell Multiple evaluates market conditions using specific threshold levels:

• High Values (3.5 and above): When miners’ revenue significantly exceeds the long-term average, the market is typically considered “overheated.” Historically, these periods have been associated with Bitcoin price peaks or pre-correction zones, potentially signaling a selling opportunity.
• Low Values (0.5 and below): When revenue falls below the average, it indicates Bitcoin is at market bottoms. These zones are often seen as accumulation opportunities.
• Normal Range (0.5 – 3.5): Represents balanced market conditions with no significant fluctuations expected.

On a chart, the Puell Multiple (usually a red line) and Bitcoin price (green line) are analyzed together to better understand market psychology.

Applications of the Puell Multiple Indicator

The Puell Multiple is particularly valuable for long-term investors. Its key uses include:

• Understanding Market Cycles: High and low Puell Multiple values indicate which phase of Bitcoin’s bull or bear market cycle is active.
• Timing Accumulation and Sales: Low values suggest buying opportunities, while high values indicate potential profit-taking.
• Risk Management: Monitoring miner behavior helps predict sell pressure in the market.

Impact of Bitcoin Halvings

Bitcoin’s halving events, occurring approximately every four years, significantly affect the Puell Multiple. Halvings reduce miner rewards by half, sharply lowering their revenue and causing the Puell Multiple to drop to low levels. For instance, this effect was observed after the April 2024 halving. However, historically, price increases following halvings have restored miner revenue balance. Thus, careful monitoring of the Puell Multiple during halving periods is essential.

Successful Analysis with the Puell Multiple

Successful investors combine the Puell Multiple with other indicators (e.g., MVRV ratio or Bitcoin Rainbow Chart). When supported by technical analysis, this indicator provides more reliable signals. It is better suited for medium- and long-term strategies rather than short-term trading.

This content does not constitute investment advice. The markets involve high risk and it is important that you do your own research before making any investment decisions.

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What is the Golden Ratio Multiplier? 

The Golden Ratio Multiplier is an indicator that analyzes Bitcoin’s price by multiplying its 200-week moving average (200 WMA) with a series of coefficients derived from the golden ratio (1.618) and the Fibonacci sequence. The indicator shows how Bitcoin’s price behaves at these coefficient levels, identifying zones where the market is overvalued or undervalued. 

The Golden Ratio Multiplier is commonly used to understand Bitcoin’s long-term bull and bear markets. Each coefficient level indicates where Bitcoin’s price has historically encountered support or resistance. For instance, lower coefficient levels (0.5x, 1x) typically signal buying opportunities, while higher levels (3.6x, 5.8x) suggest potential selling or correction risks. 

This tool, popularized by Philip Swift, has gained traction among investors, particularly through Swift’s LookIntoBitcoin platform. The Golden Ratio Multiplier provides a robust guide for analyzing long-term trends by considering Bitcoin’s logarithmic growth curve. 

Golden Ratio Multiplier Levels and Their Meanings 

The indicator classifies Bitcoin’s price based on the 200-week moving average multiplied by different coefficients. Each level represents a distinct market phase. Here are the key levels and their meanings: 

• 350 DMA (Yellow Line): Bitcoin’s 350-day simple moving average, serving as the baseline reference. 
• x1.6 (Light Blue Line): When Bitcoin’s price reaches 1.6 times the 350 DMA, it is typically in the middle of a bullish phase, approaching overbought territory. 
• x2 (Red Line): At 2 times the 350 DMA, the market often enters the upper regions of a cycle, signaling a potential profit-taking zone. 
• x3 (Blue Line): Frequently tested during high-momentum bull markets, this level represents strong bullish periods. 
• x5 (Green Line): Historically associated with Bitcoin’s major rallies, this level is very close to cycle peaks. 
• x8 (Orange Line): Seen during highly speculative periods, this level is rarely reached and often signals cycle tops. 
• x13 (Purple Line): Represents extreme bubble territory, a level rarely achieved. 
• x21 (Pink Line): The most extreme peak levels Bitcoin has historically reached, typically before a bubble bursts. 

These levels allow investors to quickly assess where Bitcoin’s current price stands within historical cycles. When used on a logarithmic scale, the indicator clearly highlights Bitcoin’s long-term growth trend. 

What Does the Golden Ratio Multiplier Do? 

The Golden Ratio Multiplier is used to understand Bitcoin’s price cycles and make strategic investment decisions. Its main functions include: 

1. Analyzing Market Cycles 
   The Golden Ratio Multiplier visualizes Bitcoin’s bull and bear markets in a historical context. For example, if the price is at the 0.5x level, historical data suggests it may be a strong buying opportunity, helping investors gauge the market’s current state. 
2. Identifying Buying and Selling Opportunities
   Low coefficient levels (0.5x, 1x) indicate undervalued periods, potentially suitable for buying. High coefficient levels (3.6x and above) may signal selling or position-reduction opportunities, helping investors avoid emotional decisions. 
3. Understanding Long-Term Trends 
   Despite Bitcoin’s short-term volatility, the Golden Ratio Multiplier provides a logarithmic perspective, highlighting long-term trends. This is particularly valuable for investors adopting a “HODL” strategy. 
4. Connection with Bitcoin Halving 
   Bitcoin’s halving events, which occur every four years and reduce the supply, have a long-term impact on price. The Golden Ratio Multiplier shows how price movements post-halving typically concentrate around certain coefficient levels, such as starting at 0.5x or 1x and climbing to higher levels over time. 
5. Risk Management 
   High coefficient levels indicate an overheated market with increased correction risks, enabling investors to reassess their portfolios and manage risk. 

How to Use the Golden Ratio Multiplier? 

1. Determine the Current Price Level 
   Check the chart to see which coefficient level Bitcoin’s current price corresponds to. For example, a price at the 0.5x level may indicate a buying opportunity. 
2. Interpret the Levels 
   Learn the significance of each coefficient level. Lower levels (green tones) suggest buying opportunities, while higher levels (orange and red) signal caution or selling. 
3. Analyze Historical Trends 
   Examine how the market reacted when the price was at the same coefficient level in the past. This provides clues about potential future movements. 
4. Combine with Other Indicators 
   Use the Golden Ratio Multiplier alongside other technical indicators like RSI, MACD, Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, or the Rainbow Indicator for more robust investment decisions. 
5. Consider Market Context 
   Macroeconomic events, regulations, or technological developments in the Bitcoin network can impact prices. Evaluate the indicator in light of these factors. 

Advantages and Limitations of the Golden Ratio Multiplier 

Advantages:  

• Clearly visualizes long-term trends.  
• Offers a mathematical foundation based on the golden ratio and Fibonacci principles.  
• Intuitively highlights buying and selling opportunities.  
• Aligns with Bitcoin’s halving cycles. 

Limitations:  

• Limited effectiveness for short-term price predictions.  
• Relies on historical data, which may not fully reflect future market conditions.  
• External factors (e.g., regulations or macroeconomic events) can affect the indicator’s accuracy. 

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry high risks. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions. 

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BTCFi is a fast-evolving sector that integrates DeFi functionality into Bitcoin’s base layer. The total value locked in BTCFi now exceeds $8.6 billion.

“The growing value of BTCFi, coupled with potential interest rate cuts, may reinforce positive sentiment for Bitcoin in the medium to long term,” Binance wrote in the report.

New Yield Opportunities Through BTCFi

A Binance spokesperson noted that continued growth of BTCFi could allow BTC holders to generate yield via lending, liquidity provision, and other DeFi tools — shifting its perception from a store-of-value to a productive on-chain asset.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

Interest in BTCFi spiked following the April 2024 Bitcoin halving, which introduced Runes, the first fungible token standard built on the Bitcoin blockchain.

Notable BTCFi initiatives include:

• Babylon enabled BTC staking for the first time, allowing passive income.
• Hermetica launched USDh, the first Bitcoin-backed synthetic dollar, offering 25% yield to investors.

Long-Term Holders Resume BTC Accumulation

According to Binance Research, BTC long-term holders — defined as wallets holding Bitcoin for at least 155 days — have resumed accumulation. This has reduced supply on exchanges, potentially setting the stage for a supply shock-induced price rally.

The trend aligns with broader Bitcoin adoption, including growing institutional interest and the establishment of a strategic reserve.

Donald Trump Signs Bitcoin Reserve Order at White House

On March 7, Donald Trump signed an executive order to form a strategic Bitcoin reserve using seized BTC assets. The move preceded the first White House Crypto Summit, which sparked mixed reactions from the crypto community.

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Key Drivers Behind the Surge

1. U.S. Presidential Election Results
   The outcome of the U.S. presidential elections positively impacted the crypto markets. Donald Trump’s victory increased interest in Bitcoin, particularly among institutional investors and major players. Analysts attribute this to expectations of crypto-friendly policies during Trump’s administration, fueling confidence in the market.
2. Upcoming Bitcoin Halving
   The next Bitcoin halving, expected in mid-2024, is another significant catalyst. Historically, halvings, which reduce the supply of new Bitcoin, have triggered substantial price increases. This has strengthened bullish sentiment among investors, who anticipate future price growth.
3. Superior Returns Compared to Traditional Assets
   Bitcoin’s performance in 2024 has outpaced traditional financial assets, delivering returns of over 100% year-to-date. This strong performance has attracted both retail and institutional investors, driving up demand further.
4. Expectations of a $100K Milestone
   Many analysts believe Bitcoin is on the verge of a strong breakout and predict it could soon reach the $100,000 milestone. Factors such as central banks lowering interest rates and rising demand for cryptocurrencies are likely to support this upward momentum.

Bitcoin’s impressive rally highlights its growing role as a prominent asset class, increasingly favored by investors seeking high returns and hedges against traditional market volatility.

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Riot Platforms recorded a net loss of $84.4 million in the second quarter, a sharp increase from the $27.4 million loss reported in the same period last year.

The company’s total revenue also declined from $76.7 million to $70 million year-over-year. The decrease in revenue was primarily driven by a $9.7 million decrease in engineering revenue, partially offset by a $6 million increase in Bitcoin mining revenue.

The firm mined 844 Bitcoin in the second quarter, representing a 52% decrease year-over-year. This decline was primarily attributed to the Bitcoin halving and increased network difficulty.

Despite the production decline, Riot nearly doubled its installed hash rate to 22 exahash per second (EH/s) by the end of June. CEO Jason Les stated that the company aims to reach a self-mining hash rate capacity of 36 EH/s by the end of the year.

In addition to its operational updates, Riot Platforms also reiterated its ongoing strategic interest in rival mining firm Bitfarms.

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“We are in a period of hash ribbon inversion, and blocks arrive roughly 14 seconds slower than they ought to. That indicates that there is less hashrate online; blocks are being discovered somewhat slower,” according to Glassnode lead analyst James Check, sometimes known as “Checkmatey,” in a June 21 X video.

Check said, “About 5% of mining hashrate is struggling at the moment,” referring to the volume of processing and computing capability being provided to the network via mining.

Check believes that “5% isn’t enormous” and that although it doesn’t seem to be a “complete and total firesale,” Bitcoin miners are most certainly dispersing part of their holdings.

When the 30-day moving average of the hashrate passes below the 60-day moving average, a hash ribbon inversion results, indicating a period of mining difficulties. Several factors could be responsible for this, including rising operational expenses, declining prices, or equipment problems among Bitcoin miners.

Bitcoin Halving and Mining Economics

After the Bitcoin halves on April 20, the Bitcoin hash rate began to drop as mining companies started shutting off unprofitably built mining facilities. The halving event happens every four years, therefore reducing the incentives for miners.

From 6.25 BTC, the April 20 halved mining returns dropped to 3.125 BTC.

Blockchain.com statistics show that the hashrate of the Bitcoin network at the time of publication was 586 exahashes per second (EH/s), down 2% over the past 30 days.

Check said that although miners might be treading water right now, at worst they could be breaking even as they dig fresh Bitcoins to pay running expenses.

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ETFs’ Market Influence

At the same time, in the United States, the emergence of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the spot markets has been a major factor. The network projection of the Bitfinex statement is that these ETFs could have indeed diluted the possibility of liquidation amidst the slump, hence saving Bitcoin from an extensive price crash.

Data Insights

There is compelling evidence to indicate that miners performed an impressive feat in March, according to the data released by CryptoQuant to Bitfinex. This was in stark contrast to their positions in February. We may view this decrease of over 70% as prospective process optimizations for miners before halving.

Market Performance Post-Halving

However, the reduction in miners’s income due to the halving is the major concern. Nonetheless, the cryptocurrency has been stable. According to datas, in fact, the ground has seen a 4.5% increase from the halving on April 20th, which is a continuation of the positive trend started on April 17th.

ETFs’ Role in Demand

The Bitfinex reflects how institutional demand propelled by the appearance of the spot Bitcoin ETF in the USA is one of the major reasons behind the growth in this asset class. Such ETFs, which characterize significant flows and oftentimes separation of the market from the conventional supply-demand cycles, act as a springtime source for Bitcoin’s price by helping the cryptocurrency to keep in line during halving-imposed turmoil.

Future Projections

On the other hand, Bitfinex expects the cadence of the ETFs  to grow in the post-halving period, as the daily net inflows will replace the algorithmically generated quantities of the Bitcoin supply. It is deemed that this trend, which goes together with an increase in institutional interests, will result in Bitcoin becoming more and more expensive in the coming months.

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According to analysis by X user Clark Moody, almost all of Bitcoin’s top 10 most valuable blocks, in terms of U.S. dollar value at the time of mining, have been mined since the halving. The first block after the halving alone captured $2.6 million in fees and rewards, coming close to claiming the top spot. Other blocks have ranged in value from $1.3 to $2 million.

Unlike a previous $3 million overpayment in November, which remains the most valuable block, the transactions post-halving were deliberate efforts to secure valuable blockspace.

For instance, the miner of the first post-halving block was entitled to one of four “epic sats” – unique units of Bitcoin inscribed with specific data, which are exceptionally rare. This particular epic sat, being the first of its kind since the introduction of the Bitcoin Ordinals protocol, may also be the first to be sold.

In addition to epic sats, a new protocol called Runes was introduced to inscribe data on the Bitcoin blockchain. The first Rune was deployed for $430,000 as an airdrop to holders of certain Ordinals collections, as reported by Arkham, while others paid substantial sums to deploy their own collections.

Overall, 9 out of the top 10 most valuable blocks in Bitcoin’s history were mined shortly after the halving. Previously, the second most valuable block was a result of a $500,000 error by Paxos, but the fee was later returned by the mining pool involved.

The halving event not only reshaped Bitcoin’s reward structure but also sparked a surge in the value of mined blocks, highlighting the ongoing evolution and innovation within the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

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The halving, believed to originate from the ViaBTC storage pool, decreases, charging 37.6256 BTC equivalent to 2,401,399 mutuals paid from 3,050 transactions included in the blog. Even though it is confirmed, there is a small possibility that the broken chain will undergo rearrangement; In this process, a deadlock of two miners is triggered simultaneously, potentially leading to a blockchain fork. More details regarding the interruption are expected as more transactions take place.

Before the halving, miners entered into an increasing competition to guarantee the fourth halving increase in history and aimed to realize unique initiatives. This year’s halving introduces new tools like “Ordinals” and “Runes,” which have options for miners to store metadata or details with Bitcoin blocks that determine their representation.

Anticipation surrounded the creative efforts miners would make with the halving. While Bitwise Invest founder Teddy Fusaro speculated about possible surprises, Bitwise Invest researcher Juan Leon drew that the data presented raises the possibility of Bitcoin’s different monetary policy.

The fourth halving marks an important moment in Bitcoin history, demonstrating both technical innovation and creative expression within mining systems.

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