CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost said on Monday:

“Periods like this generally don’t favor risk-taking. The sharp drop in Bitcoin’s Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance clearly reflects this.”

This ratio measures investor leverage intensity, calculated by comparing futures Open Interest (OI) to BTC reserves held on the exchange. Since February, it has fallen from 0.198 to 0.152, coinciding with Bitcoin’s drop from $96,000 to $69,000.

Spot Buying or Leveraged Speculation?

Low leverage eases market pressure. If the ratio stays low while Bitcoin consolidates, spot buying likely drives prices—a healthier dynamic.

CryptoQuant analyst “IT tech” adds:

“Bottom callers are multiplying. Yet new buyers are still underwater. LTHs aren’t selling, but they’re not absorbing either. STH capitulation is present but not extreme. It’s too early to call a structural low.”

Glassnode reports momentum has modestly firmed. RSI is rising from recent lows, but price action still lacks strong bullish confirmation. Spot activity remains subdued, volume limited; participation is slow, though signs of stabilization appear.

Market Movements and Altcoins

Spot markets rose 4.3% to $2.46 trillion, following President Trump’s comment that the Iran war could be “over soon.”

Bitcoin reclaimed $70,000 in early Asian trading; oil dropped 28% from Monday’s $120 high. Ether remained weak but above $2,000. Some altcoins, like Hyperliquid and Zcash, surged over 11%.

Momentum and internal metrics hint at improvement, yet decisive bullishness is absent. Spot activity low, volume thin, participation slow, but the market is slowly stabilizing.

Futures and Options

• Open Interest shows mild leverage build-up.

• Long-side funding sharply negative; short demand strong.

• Perpetual CVD rose aggressively; conviction limited.

• Options market more balanced: volatility spread narrows, 25-delta skew declines; downside hedge demand eases.

ETFs remain relatively strong: net inflows rise, trading volumes increase. MVRV ratio negative; average ETF investor still underwater, positioning stress high.

On-Chain Signals

• Transfer volume rising; capital movement slightly stronger.

• Active addresses and fees remain low; network quiet.

• Realized profit in supply and NUPL improve slightly; stress easing but market remains fragile.

• STH/LTH ratio elevated; short-term participation high, hot capital suppressed, speculative churn limited.

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