Massive Treasury Accumulation Model Continues

On X, Saylor used the phrase “Expand Orange Dots” in his eleventh 2026 post, a pattern typically associated with Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases. Since late 2020, the company has accumulated 738,731 BTC through 102 purchases. The total cost basis is approximately $56.04 billion, with an average entry price of $75,863 per coin. At current prices, the position shows an unrealized loss of around $3 billion (5.4%), yet the broader accumulation strategy continues despite market fluctuations.

Historically, Saylor signaled purchases on Sundays, months before official announcements. This latest hint follows Strategy’s purchase of 17,994 BTC last week and shows the company continues its long-term accumulation plan.

Market Structure and Liquidity Trends

Strategy continues to finance Bitcoin purchases through debt and equity. Treasury companies may experience declines in net asset value during market drops, but this approach remains active. Investors speculate Strategy may have bought over 1,000 BTC this week, supported by stock sale programs providing additional funding. This has increased demand for STRC preferred shares among investors seeking indirect Bitcoin exposure.

Activity in MSTR Shares

Short positions have increased recently in Saylor’s strategy, reflecting bearish bets on the company’s Bitcoin exposure. Analyst Darkfost notes that long-term holders still control roughly 79% of circulating Bitcoin, contrasting with the 2021 cycle when supply held by long-term holders fell from 82% to 70% within six months. In the current cycle, supply transfers occur in multiple waves, and short-term investors gradually become long-term holders.

Meanwhile, MSTR shares reacted to recent developments, closing Friday at $137.34 and trading after hours at $138.40. Intra-day, the stock fluctuated between $138.44 and $147.26, with an average volume of 24.52 million shares. Of course, the fine line between corporate treasury management and individual investor psychology will become clearer in the coming days as official data is released.

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Historical Weakness in DXY and Its Impact on Bitcoin 

On July 1, 2025, the DXY fell to 96.377, a level not seen in over three years. According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin maintains an inverse correlation with the US Dollar Index. The DXY remaining below its 200-day moving average often creates upward momentum for BTC. 

Darkfost highlights that despite US debt reaching an all-time high, the dollar fails to show strength. He notes this as the largest deviation in the last 21 years. However, such weakness tends to benefit risk assets like Bitcoin. 

Historical data confirms that such periods have been highly favorable for BTC. Currently, DXY’s decline may set the stage for a new Bitcoin rally, although the price has not yet responded. 

Historically, Bitcoin moves inversely to the dollar index. As the dollar weakens, investors tend to shift to alternative assets. This leads to changes in portfolio allocations, increasing demand for Bitcoin. 

Current Correlation Status Between Bitcoin and DXY 

So far, Bitcoin has not fully responded to the dollar’s historical weakness. However, chart patterns show that periods where DXY stays below its annual average are generally favorable for BTC, signaling potential for a future rally. 

TradingView data shows that DXY has lost more than 10% of its value since the beginning of the year. Darkfost emphasizes that investors are turning away from the dollar as a safe haven and shifting capital toward risk assets. 

“Looking at historical data, it becomes clear that such periods have been highly favorable to BTC. We are currently in a phase where the weakness of the DXY could fuel a new rise in BTC but the price didn’t react yet.” 

Bitcoin’s inverse correlation with the dollar stands out as a critical element in the market. This trend continues as part of the broader risk-on asset narrative. As the dollar weakens, investors increasingly consider Bitcoin for their portfolios. 

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The post Bitcoin Eyes Rally as DXY Hits 21-Year Low! appeared first on Coin Engineer.

On average, 566 BTC per day fall into this “ancient supply” category, while current daily BTC production remains around 450 coins. This development marks the first time in Bitcoin’s history that long-term held coins are growing faster than new supply. This data stands out as a significant factor reinforcing Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative. 

Fidelity analyst Zack Wainwright said, “The strong conviction of ultra-long-term investors is increasingly influential on the Bitcoin ecosystem.” According to the report, ancient supply is increasing regularly every day. The daily decrease rate in this supply category is less than 3%. 

As of June 8, 17% of all bitcoin falls into the category of “ancient supply”—meaning these coins have not moved in a decade or more. What could this mean for scarcity, market dynamics, and investors’ conviction? Find our team’s thoughts: https://t.co/EALzrfS92c pic.twitter.com/Ckm3MylTLY

— Fidelity Digital Assets (@DigitalAssets) June 18, 2025

Bitcoin Supply Exceeds 3.4 Million BTC, Yet Market Remains Unmoved 

With the dynamics changing after the 2024 halving, the dormant Bitcoin supply over 10 years has surpassed 3.4 million BTC. This corresponds to about 17% of the total supply. Coins believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto constitute roughly one-third of this ancient supply. However, many of these coins are likely lost. 

Meanwhile, there has been a more frequent decrease in ancient supply since the 2024 US elections. The report states that the supply of coins held for five years or more has dropped by 39% daily since the election. This rate was normally only around 13%. 

Some long-term investors are realizing profits. As uncertainty increases, the number of coin movers also rises. Wainwright notes that these movements may partly explain the price stagnation and declines seen in the first quarter of 2025. 

However, an important warning exists. The dormant supply surpassing new supply does not necessarily mean a short-term price increase. On the contrary, increased supply activity can exert downward pressure on prices. Although 2025 is traditionally considered the peak of the Bitcoin bull cycle, BTC has only risen by 12% since the start of the year. 

Fidelity notes that as institutional products increase, ancient supply becomes more widespread. This feature differentiates Bitcoin from other assets and could become even more critical in potential demand growth. 

Last week, we highlighted how $BTC wallets that held >12m were the primary profit-takers. But that trend has now flipped. Yesterday:

<12m cohorts accounted for 83% of all realized profit
6–12m holders alone realized $904M – second-highest daily profit YTD pic.twitter.com/gBD8tLCjVG

— glassnode (@glassnode) June 17, 2025

On the other hand, Glassnode data reveals a shift in investor behavior. Profit-taking trends have reversed among different investor groups. 

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The post Historic Milestone in Bitcoin: Dormant Supply Surpasses New Supply  appeared first on Coin Engineer.