A Market Disconnect: Bitcoin Falls as Major Indexes Hold Near Highs

One of Hayes’ central observations is the unusual divergence between Bitcoin and traditional markets. While BTC has experienced a steep pullback, equities such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain close to their peak levels. Hayes interprets this as an anomaly, suggesting that something fundamental within the financial ecosystem is beginning to crack.

He adds that the rally seen after April’s geopolitical tensions was not sustainable. Instead of representing genuine market strength, the upward movement was largely fueled by ETF inflows. Once those inflows slowed, the bullish momentum quickly faded.

Potential Downside Targets: “Bitcoin Could Slide to $80,000–$85,000”

Hayes describes Bitcoin as a barometer of liquidity conditions. As liquidity weakens globally, he expects BTC to face deeper declines. The current price behavior, he argues, aligns with the early stages of a developing credit crisis—one that could soon reveal itself more broadly. In this environment, Hayes believes a drop toward the $80,000 to $85,000 range remains a realistic possibility.

After the Crash: “Money Printing Will Accelerate” Said Hayes

If a full-scale financial disruption emerges, Hayes anticipates rapid intervention from both the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve. Such a scenario would likely involve aggressive monetary expansion. While painful in the short term, he suggests this response would ultimately set the stage for Bitcoin’s next major leg upward, potentially pushing the cryptocurrency toward the $200,000 to $250,000 zone once liquidity floods back into the system.

Looking Toward 2026: “China Will Ignite the Next Bull Cycle”

Beyond the immediate market pressures, Hayes sees China playing a critical role in shaping the next major crypto bull run. He notes that Beijing is currently reluctant to ease monetary policy due to its desire to project a strong yuan. For China to begin expanding, the United States must first take the lead in boosting liquidity. Once that happens, Hayes believes China will follow—an event he expects to ignite the 2026 crypto bull cycle.

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Bitcoin Becomes Less Nasdaq, More Like Gold

According to Nansen CEO Alex Svanevik, Bitcoin has recently taken on a profile that is “less Nasdaq, more gold.” In the two-week period ending April 22, Bitcoin saw a 12% recovery, despite rising tensions between the U.S. and China over reciprocal tariffs. On April 9, the U.S. raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%, and China responded in kind on April 12.

During this escalation, Bitcoin proved more resilient than both altcoins and major equity indexes like the S&P 500. Svanevik said the performance highlights how investors are beginning to treat Bitcoin as a hedge in times of geopolitical and economic instability.

Still, he cautioned that the risk of economic recession could weigh on demand for speculative assets. However, regulatory momentum and the U.S. government’s evolving approach to Bitcoin reserves could act in BTC’s favor.

U.S. Explores Alternative Ways to Expand Bitcoin Reserves

In addition to holding BTC assets seized in criminal cases, the U.S. government is now working on “budget-neutral strategies” to increase its Bitcoin holdings. As part of an executive order signed by President Donald Trump, discussions include using tariff revenue and reassessing Treasury gold certificates to fund additional purchases—without needing to sell gold.

Bo Hines, a member of the Presidential Council of Advisers for Digital Assets, said on April 14 that the government is actively exploring “many creative ways” to support its Bitcoin strategy.

Recession Risk Rises: What It Means for Bitcoin

According to a report released by JPMorgan on April 15, the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 has risen to 60%. The report noted that although recent reductions in Liberation Day tariffs have softened some of the global trade shock, the remaining 10% universal tariff and 145% rate on Chinese imports still pose a serious threat to economic growth.

JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in September 2025, continuing through early 2026, with the policy rate potentially reaching 3% by mid-2026.

With these macroeconomic pressures mounting, the market is entering a period that could define whether Bitcoin emerges as a reliable hedge—or remains categorized as a high-risk asset.

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