At the center of the discussion lies the competition for electricity usage among miners and its potential impact on the hash power of the Bitcoin network.

Electricity Competition Between Artificial Intelligence and Bitcoin Mining

According to crypto trader Ran Neuner, the artificial intelligence sector has become one of the biggest competitors facing Bitcoin mining. Neuner points out that both sectors consume large amounts of electricity, but artificial intelligence data centers can generate significantly higher revenue from the same energy.

According to Neuner’s assessment, revenue per megawatt in Bitcoin mining ranges from approximately $57 to $129, while in artificial intelligence data centers this figure can reach $200 to $500 levels. It is stated that this difference is causing some miners to shift their operations toward the artificial intelligence side.

Some developments signaling this transition are also noteworthy. It is reported that Core Scientific has secured up to $1 billion in credit for artificial intelligence hosting services, MARA Holdings has filed an application indicating plans to sell a portion of its Bitcoin holdings as part of its artificial intelligence strategy, and Hut 8 has signed a $7 billion artificial intelligence infrastructure agreement with Google.

Network Security Debate

Neuner argues that miners leaving the network could lead to a decline in hash rate, which in theory could increase the risk of a 51% attack. Indeed, the total hash power of the Bitcoin network has declined by approximately 14.5% from its peak level reached in October.

However, there are also those who disagree with this view. According to Adam Back, one of Bitcoin’s early developers and a cryptographer, Bitcoin’s difficulty adjustment mechanism is designed precisely for such situations. Since mining difficulty adjusts automatically, while inefficient miners exit the system, the profitability of the remaining miners can increase.

Similarly, investor Fred Krueger states that in the event of rising electricity prices, some miners may temporarily halt operations, but mining can become profitable again following the difficulty adjustment.

Energy Usage and Alternative Views

Bitcoin ESG expert Daniel Batten approaches the discussion from a different perspective. According to Batten, data shows that the growth of the artificial intelligence sector is actually dependent on Bitcoin mining in some cases.

Batten argues that Bitcoin mining can utilize unused energy sources, act as a flexible load balancer in energy grids, and operate with cheaper energy sources.

Bitcoin Price Could Be Decisive

According to Ran Neuner, one of the most important factors determining whether miners will shift toward artificial intelligence will be the trajectory of Bitcoin’s price. In his view, a strong price rally could keep miners in the network.

Bitcoin’s price has recently gone through a challenging period, recording five consecutive months of declines. This situation was last seen during the bear market in 2018. Nevertheless, March has so far shown a positive picture, with Bitcoin’s price rising approximately 8% since the beginning of the month.

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Especially the inflation data to be released in the US, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision, and tensions in the Middle East are among the topics closely followed by investors. How will Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies react?

Fed Meeting and Interest Rate Decision

The most important development of the week will be the Fed’s monetary policy meeting. Markets are focused not only on the central bank’s decision regarding interest rates but also on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s statements.

Expectations in the futures market indicate that the Fed will not make any changes to interest rates at this meeting. According to current forecasts, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is quite high.

Nevertheless, investors will closely monitor Powell’s assessments, particularly regarding the impact of developments related to Iran on energy prices and inflation. Concerns that rising energy prices could increase inflationary pressure have already weakened rate cut expectations.

Inflation Data and Economic Indicators

The Producer Price Index (PPI) data for February, to be released on Wednesday, also holds critical importance for the markets. This data can provide important signals about inflation trends as it reflects changes in production costs.

Analysts state that the PPI data is not expected to have a strong enough impact to change the Fed’s current tight monetary policy stance. Nevertheless, every new inflation indicator continues to influence rate expectations.

Later in the week, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and January new home sales data will be released. These indicators can provide additional clues about the overall health of the US economy.

Bitcoin Solid Stance: Middle East Tensions

In addition to economic developments, geopolitical risks are also on the markets’ agenda. Over the weekend, it was reported that the US carried out an attack on Iran’s Harg Island region, which is critical for the country’s oil industry.

Following this development, oil prices rose again, reaching approximately $100 per barrel. The increase in energy prices is seen as an important factor that could affect global inflation expectations.

On the other hand, US President Donald Trump is expected to announce the formation of a joint naval security coalition with certain countries to escort ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

The fact that all these developments are occurring within the same week is creating an environment of increased uncertainty in financial markets. Therefore, both upcoming economic data and geopolitical developments are evaluated as likely to lead to higher short-term fluctuations in the crypto markets.

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Mitchnick estimates that more than 90% of ETF investors—including retail investors, financial advisors, and institutional investors—continue to accumulate Bitcoin despite market volatility.

Bitcoin ETF Investors Are Adopting a “Buy the Dip” Strategy

According to the BlackRock executive, retail investors in particular are taking a long-term perspective. During market downturns, a significant portion of these investors prefer to “buy the dip” rather than sell. Only about 10% of ETF investors are engaging in shorter-term, tactical trading.

This smaller group is largely composed of hedge funds. Their strategies include holding long positions in spot ETFs while shorting futures, or performing “basis trades” (arbitrage strategies). While these approaches are often market-direction neutral, they can still cause short-term fluctuations in ETF inflow and outflow data.

In contrast, the overwhelming majority of the investor base continues to approach Bitcoin with a long-term outlook.

Strong Capital Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs

Despite Bitcoin price volatility, demand for ETFs remains robust. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) attracted approximately $26 billion in net inflows throughout 2025, ranking among the top ETFs worldwide in terms of capital inflows. This performance occurred even though Bitcoin delivered negative returns during the same period.

According to Mitchnick, while other parts of the crypto ecosystem experienced selling pressure, ETF investors have shown a more stable and long-term approach. Notably, even as crypto exchanges and leveraged derivatives markets saw heavy selling, ETF investors largely held their positions.

Crypto ETF Demand Concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum

BlackRock reports that investor interest in crypto ETFs is heavily concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum. While the firm is evaluating opportunities for other digital assets, it is taking a cautious approach to launching new products. When developing new ETFs, the company considers factors such as market maturity, liquidity levels, and real-world use cases.

Staking Feature Could Strengthen Ethereum ETFs

This week, BlackRock launched a new Ethereum ETF with staking capabilities called ETHB. On its first day of trading, the fund attracted over $43 million in net inflows.

Previous Ethereum ETFs were unable to pass staking rewards to investors, meaning holders could not benefit from the network’s native yield. The new structure removes this limitation and offers investors additional income potential.

Nevertheless, BlackRock’s flagship Ethereum ETF (ETHA) has also shown strong growth, becoming the third-fastest-growing ETF to reach $10 billion in assets under management. Only the Bitcoin ETFs IBIT and FBTC achieved this milestone faster.

With staking income now integrated into the product, BlackRock believes ETHB could become a significant vehicle for investors seeking exposure to Ethereum.

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Weak economic data from the United States combined with ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has pushed investors toward scarce assets. Bitcoin has been among the assets benefiting from this shift in market sentiment.

Weak Economic Data Boosts Demand for Bitcoin

Recent economic figures from the United States indicate a noticeable slowdown in growth. The U.S. economy expanded by only 0.7% during the final quarter of 2025, a figure that represents a significant downward revision from earlier estimates. The final report is expected to be released on April 9, but the weaker data has already fueled concerns about a potential recession in 2026.

These developments have influenced investor behavior in traditional markets. Yields on the U.S. 10-year Treasury climbed to 4.26%, reflecting higher return expectations from investors holding government bonds. In an environment marked by uncertainty and rising yields, some investors have turned to limited-supply assets such as Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, equity markets have shown relative resilience. The S&P 500 is currently trading roughly 5% below its all-time high, suggesting that risk appetite has not completely disappeared.

Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Prices Add Pressure

Another factor influencing global markets is the ongoing conflict in Iran and the resulting surge in oil prices. At one point, oil briefly spiked to $119.50 per barrel, creating additional volatility across financial markets.

The U.S. government’s temporary decision to allow the purchase of Russian oil that had been stranded at sea helped ease some of the immediate concerns. Following the announcement, oil prices pulled back slightly.

However, oil prices remain roughly $30 higher than levels seen before the conflict began. Elevated energy costs can contribute to inflationary pressure and reduce consumer spending, which may ultimately limit the amount of capital retail investors allocate to cryptocurrency markets.

Institutional Demand and ETF Flows

Institutional interest appears to be another driver behind Bitcoin’s recent strength. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded four consecutive days of net inflows totaling approximately $583 million.

In addition, estimates suggest that Strategy accumulated more than $900 million worth of Bitcoin through its yield-oriented STRC financial instrument. These developments indicate that institutional demand may be playing a role in supporting the current price momentum.

Has the Bear Market Actually Ended?

Despite the positive price action, analysts remain cautious about declaring the end of the broader correction that began after Bitcoin reached its $126,000 peak in October 2025.

Bitcoin’s 50-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 stands at around 84%, indicating that movements in technology stocks could still influence the cryptocurrency’s performance. Furthermore, Bitcoin has recently underperformed gold, suggesting that investors may not yet view it as a reliable hedge during periods of economic stress.

ETF flow patterns also highlight an important dynamic. Between late February and early March, about $2.14 billion flowed into spot Bitcoin ETFs, helping drive a 14% price rally. However, when those flows reversed, Bitcoin declined roughly 10% within a few days. This suggests ETF activity may be reacting to price movements rather than leading them.

While Bitcoin has repeatedly tested the $64,000 support level and spent nearly five weeks consolidating, the market has yet to produce a clear breakout signal. As a result, whether Bitcoin can maintain its position above $70,000 could remain one of the key factors shaping short-term investor sentiment.

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Bitcoin Scarcity Index on the Rise

According to market data, the Bitcoin Scarcity Index on Binance has risen to approximately 5.10. This value represents the highest level seen since October 2025.

The Scarcity Index is used as an indicator that measures the balance between Bitcoin supply readily available for trading on exchanges and demand pressure. A high index level shows that the amount of Bitcoin ready for sale in the market has decreased compared to historical averages.

This situation typically signals a change in investor behavior. Many investors prefer to withdraw their Bitcoin to cold wallets or hold it long-term instead of keeping it on exchanges. In such an environment, any sudden increase in demand can lead to faster price movements due to limited liquidity in the market.

Bitcoin Reserves on Exchanges Are Declining

Another data point supporting the supply tightening is the total amount of Bitcoin held on centralized exchanges. According to on-chain analyses, the total BTC amount on exchanges has fallen to approximately 2.7 million BTC. This figure stands out as one of the lowest levels seen since the end of 2020.

The decline in exchange reserves is considered an important signal indicating that investors are tending to hold their assets for longer periods.

Whale Wallets Reach Record Levels

Parallel to the supply tightening in the market, large investors’ Bitcoin accumulation is also increasing. According to current data, the number of wallets holding at least 100 BTC has reached 20,031, setting a new record. At current prices, a wallet holding 100 BTC is worth approximately $7.15 million.

In addition, approximately 954 thousand wallets hold between 1 and 100 BTC, while 57.6 million wallets have 1 BTC or less. This distribution reveals that Bitcoin ownership is concentrated among large investors while the small investor base remains quite broad.

Long-Term Investors Are Selling Less

Despite Bitcoin’s price having declined approximately 43% from its October peak, long-term investors appear to be acting more cautiously on the selling side than expected.

According to the data, long-term investors spent around 15.1 million BTC in the 2025 cycle. This figure is slightly below the 15.3 million BTC sold in the 2021 cycle. In previous market cycles, long-term investor spending was recorded at 7.3 million BTC and 13.6 million BTC respectively.

The structural changes in the market are also seen as an important factor influencing these figures. The increase in institutional investors, ETFs, and companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets is reshaping the definition of “long-term investor” over time.

Bitcoin Supply Dynamics Are Changing

While ETFs must hold a certain level of reserves to meet investor demand, some companies continue to view Bitcoin as a long-term strategic asset. This situation may contribute to a more balanced selling pressure in the market compared to previous cycles.

Rising scarcity signals, whale accumulation, and limited selling by long-term investors indicate that Bitcoin supply is tightening further. However, whether this will create a strong upward movement in price will depend on how demand evolves in the coming period. As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $71,526 amid the general market uptrend, gaining approximately 3% in the last 24 hours.

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Sharp Pullback After Record High

Bitcoin reached a historic peak in October last year when the price climbed above $126,000. Since that record level, however, the market has experienced a significant correction. At present, Bitcoin is trading around $68,000, indicating that the asset has lost nearly half of its value from its all-time high.

Many analysts view this decline not as an isolated event but as part of a broader and recurring market pattern. Historically, Bitcoin has gone through powerful bull runs followed by extended correction periods. These phases often reflect shifts in market sentiment, liquidity conditions, and investor positioning.

Understanding the Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle

One of the most frequently discussed frameworks for interpreting Bitcoin’s price movements is the so-called “four-year cycle.” This model centers around the Bitcoin halving, a programmed event that reduces the mining reward by half roughly every four years.

The most recent halving took place in April 2024. After that update, the reward for mining each block dropped to 3.125 BTC. When Bitcoin first launched, miners received 50 BTC per block, but successive halvings have gradually reduced the issuance rate.

Historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin prices often reach a peak roughly 16 to 18 months after a halving event. Following this peak, the market typically enters a bear phase that can last around a year. The October peak observed last year fits closely within that historical timing.

Investor Psychology Reinforces the Pattern

A key factor behind the persistence of the four-year cycle may be investor psychology. Retail participants often behave in predictable ways, entering the market aggressively during periods of hype and selling rapidly when prices begin to decline.

These behavioral patterns reinforce the boom-and-bust dynamics that have characterized the crypto market for more than a decade. As a result, some analysts continue to argue that Bitcoin still behaves more like a speculative asset than a traditional safe-haven store of value such as gold.

Institutional Participation Still Limited

Although institutional interest in digital assets has increased in recent years, its overall influence on the crypto market remains relatively modest. The combined size of cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds and companies holding digital assets as treasury reserves is estimated to represent only about 10% of the total crypto market.

Another potential risk comes from companies that hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets. If market conditions deteriorate further, some of these firms may need to liquidate their holdings in order to meet debt obligations. Such selling pressure could intensify the downward trend and prolong the bear market.

Given these factors, many market observers believe the current crypto downturn may not yet be finished. The next major recovery phase could take time to develop as the market works through the remaining stages of the cycle.

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Technical Indicators Point to Oversold Conditions for Bitcoin

According to analysts, Bitcoin has shown relative stability in recent weeks despite the broader risk-off environment. One of the most closely watched technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), recently reached a critical level.

Bitcoin’s weekly RSI fell to 26.84, marking its lowest reading since July 2022. The RSI measures momentum by evaluating the speed and magnitude of price movements. Readings below 30 typically indicate that an asset is in oversold territory, a condition that historically has coincided with periods near market bottoms.

Similar conditions appeared during the wave of crypto lender failures that ultimately preceded the collapse of major exchange platforms in 2022. During those events, extreme market stress pushed technical indicators into deeply oversold territory before a longer-term recovery eventually began.

Trading activity also reflects heightened market stress. Recent sessions recorded two consecutive days in which trading volume exceeded 95% of historically recorded levels. In previous bear markets, such extreme volume spikes were rare and often occurred during capitulation phases, when sellers exhaust themselves and markets begin stabilizing.

Derivatives Market Signals Elevated Stress

Beyond spot market indicators, derivatives and options markets are also sending signals that the market may be nearing an inflection point.

Analysts highlight the behavior of options skew, a metric that compares the pricing of bearish put options against bullish call options. Recently, the cost difference between these contracts surged to levels previously observed during the most severe market disruptions of 2022, including the collapses of Terra and FTX.

This imbalance suggests that traders are willing to pay substantial premiums for downside protection. Historically, when the market becomes overwhelmingly positioned in one direction, price movements often shift in the opposite direction as positioning unwinds.

In perpetual futures markets, participants have also been paying elevated premiums to maintain bearish positions. Such behavior reflects defensive sentiment among traders but may also indicate a market environment where extreme pessimism is already priced in.

Defensive Market Positioning

Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33, noted that the recent sell-off has been relatively orderly compared with the chaotic liquidations seen during earlier crypto crises. Despite the decline, the market structure appears more controlled, suggesting that systemic stress is lower than during previous downturns.

However, Lunde also described the market’s defensive posture as unusual. In past cycles, similar sentiment extremes have often appeared near broader market bottoms. Bitcoin has repeatedly demonstrated a tendency to move unexpectedly when market consensus becomes too one-sided.

Bitcoin Price Context and Market Outlook

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $73,036, representing a daily gain of more than 7%. Despite the short-term rebound, the asset remains approximately 42% below its all-time high of $126,000, reached in October.

While analysts emphasize that no single indicator can reliably identify a market bottom, the combination of oversold technical signals, extreme derivatives positioning, and unusually high trading volumes suggests that Bitcoin may be entering a bottoming phase.

Historically, however, Bitcoin bottoms tend to develop slowly rather than through immediate reversals. For this reason, analysts suggest that patience is often required during such periods as markets gradually stabilize and sentiment begins to shift.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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President Trump, in his State of the Union address, praised falling mortgage rates and claimed annual costs have dropped by around $5,000. Here, IMF data confirms that despite optimism, rates will remain elevated.

When will US inflation decline?

US inflation is expected to reach the Fed’s 2% target only by early 2027, restricting the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts in the near term.

How Budget Deficits Affect Markets

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the US current account deficit is projected at 3.5–4% of GDP in the short term. The fund emphasizes that fiscal consolidation, not tariffs alone, is the best way to reduce the budget gap.

Why does Trump’s low-rate optimism clash with reality? Structural spending and persistent deficits create a long-term rationale for high interest rates, meaning short-term mortgage declines do not resolve underlying issues.

Federal budget deficits of 7–8% and consolidated debt rising to 140% by 2031 increase instability risks for both the US and the global economy. Of course, short-term optimism exists, but the structural picture remains unchanged.

Trump’s Optimism vs Structural Reality

Trump framed low rates as solving the housing problem, citing the lowest mortgage costs in four years. However, IMF data tells a different story: inflation won’t hit the Fed’s target until 2027, and deficits are twice the administration’s own targets, reinforcing the case for long-term elevated rates.

Will the Fed cut rates?
Given structural risks and high deficits, rates are expected to stay elevated for an extended period, leaving little room for emergency cuts. The fund set 2026 growth at 2.4%, leaving no urgent reason for rate reductions. Short-term market optimism clashes with this structural reality.

Implications for Crypto

Effects on risky assets are clear. Sticky inflation and widening deficits reduce the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts, reinforcing caution in crypto markets. Short-term capital flow and trading volumes must shift before rates could fall rapidly.

In short, US inflation won’t meet the Fed target until 2027, while deficits and debt remain high. Trump’s low-rate expectations clash with reality, and structural risks dominate. Of course, data shifts could create short-term opportunities, but the macro picture keeps rates elevated for the foreseeable future.

US inflation won’t reach the Fed’s 2% target until 2027. IMF warns that persistent deficits and rising debt limit near-term rate cuts, keeping crypto markets cautious.

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Why Are Whales Moving?

Exchange deposits from addresses holding at least 1,000 BTC have intensified. This is rarely random. Historically, when large holders move assets to exchanges, it often signals preparation to sell, increasing immediate liquidity pressure.

What stands out is persistence. The activity is not isolated. Wallet age, transaction frequency, and historical behavior patterns suggest this is not routine portfolio rebalancing but a cautious repositioning. Markets tend to price in such behavior quickly. And price often follows.

ETF Side: A Quiet Capital Rotation?

After strong inflows following ETF approvals in 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs are now posting net outflows of $2.6 billion for the year. That shift suggests traditional finance participants are reducing exposure.

Over the past 72 hours, broader capital rotation has been visible across risk assets, with flows moving toward gold and cash equivalents. Bitcoin appears caught in that rotation. When institutional demand weakens while whale-driven supply increases, short-term balance tilts downward.

Derivatives Desk: Put Premiums Rising

In options markets, put skew has become more pronounced. Downside protection is trading at a premium relative to calls, signaling growing hedging activity among professional traders.

Open interest (OI) is concentrated in specific downside strikes, while implied volatility trends upward. This combination frequently precedes increased spot pressure — not always immediately, but often within short timeframes.

Technical Levels: Between $78,000 and $53,000

Bitfinex Alpha identifies $78,000 as a key resistance level and $53,000 as a major psychological and structural support zone near realized price levels.

A sustained move above $78,000 would require significant new capital inflows — something current flow data does not yet confirm. A breakdown below $53,000, however, could accelerate liquidations and margin unwinds. Volume structure and lower-high patterns continue to reflect a fragile trend.

Key Data Snapshot

The core metrics are aligned:

64% of exchange inflows originate from large holders. Spot Bitcoin ETFs show -$2.6 billion in net flows year-to-date. Put demand is increasing in options markets. $78,000 stands as resistance, while $53,000 remains a critical support zone.

Conclusion

Multiple datasets are telling the same story: rising supply from whales, institutional outflows, and increased hedging activity. Until ETF inflows resume and whale exchange transfers slow meaningfully, downside risks remain present.

Market participants continue to monitor exchange flow reversals and derivatives positioning closely. For now, the data suggests caution.

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The recent pullback appears to be driven by two primary factors: renewed tariff announcements from United States President Donald Trump and a broader sell-off in artificial intelligence-related equities. The deterioration in risk appetite has not been confined to digital assets; traditional equity markets have also come under pressure.

Tariffs and Geopolitical Tension Weigh on Risk Assets

Following the Supreme Court’s rejection of his earlier tariff strategy, President Trump announced a temporary 15% tariff on imports, revising the previously stated 10% rate. The policy shift has intensified uncertainty around global trade conditions, injecting fresh volatility into financial markets.

At the same time, escalating geopolitical tensions are adding another layer of caution for investors. In this environment, Bitcoin is behaving similarly to other high-beta assets. Market observers highlight the $60,000 level as a critical technical support. A decisive break below that threshold could open the door to a deeper retracement toward the $50,000–$55,000 range.

What Historical Patterns Suggest

Looking at previous market cycles, one technical signal stands out: the so-called “bear cross,” which occurs when the 50-week moving average falls below the 100-week moving average. In both the 2018 and 2022 bear markets, this crossover coincided with the final stages of the downturn.

Currently, however, the 50-week average remains above the 100-week average. From a historical perspective, that suggests the corrective phase may not yet be complete. It is important to remember that moving averages are lagging indicators; they confirm trends that have already unfolded rather than predict future turning points.

Short-Term Risks Remain

While no historical pattern guarantees future outcomes, the combination of macroeconomic uncertainty and the current technical structure indicates that additional downside cannot be ruled out. Whether Bitcoin can defend the $60,000 level will likely determine the market’s next directional move.

This content is not investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and individuals should conduct their own research before making financial decisions.

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