Prices have moved higher in recent days. Still, options data suggests that confidence behind the move remains contested rather than settled.

Bitcoin dominates the expiry landscape, with approximately $2.4 billion in notional value rolling off, while Ethereum accounts for about $437 million. That imbalance alone signals where the market currently perceives systemic risk to be concentrated.

Bitcoin is trading near $95,300, well above its $92,000 max pain level. In options markets, max pain represents the price where the greatest number of contracts expire worthless and often acts as a magnetic level into expiry. Trading meaningfully above it implies that volatility risk has not been neutralized yet.

Bitcoin Price Breaks Higher, Options Stay Defensive

Despite the upside break, Bitcoin options positioning remains cautious. Open interest shows 11,170 call contracts versus 14,050 put contracts, resulting in a put-to-call ratio of 1.26. Rather than reflecting aggressive bullish leverage, this skew points to continued demand for downside protection even after the breakout.

The setup suggests the market is still testing whether the recent move deserves follow-through. A series of daily closes above $94,304 could solidify that area as support and reopen the psychological $100,000 level as a near-term reference. Failure to hold, however, risks pulling price back into the multi-month consolidation range. Options markets appear to be pricing precisely that tension.

Ethereum Remains Trapped in Indecision

Ethereum tells a quieter story. ETH is trading around $3,295, hovering just above its $3,200 max pain level. Options positioning is nearly balanced, with 65,527 calls against 67,207 puts, producing a 1.03 put-to-call ratio. The lack of skew reflects a market that is hedged but undecided.

That equilibrium mirrors Ethereum’s ongoing struggle to break decisively above the $3,400 resistance zone. Protection is in place, but conviction is notably absent.

The divergence becomes clearer in institutional-sized derivatives flows. According to Greeks.live, Bitcoin block trades recently reached $1.7 billion, accounting for more than 40% of daily volume. Ethereum block trades, by contrast, totaled just $130 million, representing roughly 20% of ETH’s volume.

The gap highlights where large players are currently focusing their attention, regardless of short-term percentage gains.

Has the Derivatives Market Turned Structurally Bullish?

Even so, the broader derivatives backdrop remains inconclusive. Greeks.live notes that futures volume failed to expand meaningfully alongside the price surge, while implied volatility across major expiries did not rebound in a convincing way. This points to a rally driven more by reactive positioning than by a clear structural shift toward a bull phase.

As today’s large options expiry clears, a short-term pull toward max pain levels would not be unusual. Typically, markets seek a new equilibrium shortly after such events, with direction becoming clearer in the sessions that follow.

Whether that adjustment fuels continuation or exposes the limits of the breakout remains unresolved—and that uncertainty is precisely what the options market continues to reflect.

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In the short term, prices look calm. But derivatives data suggests this quiet feels a bit forced.

Max pain sits higher, sentiment still leans lower

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $66,372. Total open interest exceeds $2.53 billion, while the max-pain level stands near $74,000.

On the Ethereum side, the picture is similar. Price is hovering near $1,950, notional open interest is roughly $425 million, and max pain sits around $2,100.

In theory, this implies a meaningful portion of the market would benefit if prices drift higher toward those max-pain levels. In practice, things aren’t that simple. Options sentiment remains cautious.

The rebound following last week’s sharp sell-off hasn’t fully repaired trader psychology.

Put skew still dominates: downside protection hasn’t faded

Derivatives analytics firm Laevitas notes that Bitcoin risk reversals remain in negative territory despite some recovery. One-week and one-month 25-delta RR readings sit near −13 and −11 vols, respectively.

What does that mean? Simply put, traders are still willing to pay up for downside insurance. Put premiums remain elevated. That keeps the idea of “more downside is possible” very much alive.

Risk reversals are often used to cut through the noise. Right now, the signal is clear: fear hasn’t fully left the room.

Fragile equilibrium after the liquidation shock

Last week’s drop below $70,000 in Bitcoin triggered a cascade of liquidations and one of the sharpest shifts toward put demand seen in years. According to Deribit analysts, it marked one of the most extreme skew moves in recent memory.

Prices later bounced back toward the $67K zone. But events like this leave scars. Trader behavior changes. Risk appetite pulls back for a while. What we’re seeing now fits that pattern.

Yes, some players have started rotating back into call options as volatility cools from panic levels. Still, that shift remains fragile.

Deribit openly describes the market as sitting at a “critical inflection point.”

Institutions remain cautious on the medium term

Options flow tracked by Greeks.live shows put dominance persisting in Bitcoin derivatives.

More than $1 billion in BTC put options traded today, accounting for roughly 37% of total volume. Most of that activity is concentrated in out-of-the-money strikes between $60,000 and $65,000.

That detail matters. Positions like these are typically opened for medium-term protection rather than short-term trading. According to Greeks.live analysts, institutional players appear to be pricing in a weaker market structure over the next one to two months.

Surface calm, deeper defensiveness.

Will expiry ease pressure — or light the fuse?

Expiries of this size can sometimes create short-term “gravitational” effects on price, especially around strikes with heavy open interest.

After today’s settlement, two paths stand out.

First, the release of options pressure could allow markets to breathe a little and head into the weekend on steadier footing.
Second, unwinding hedges could just as easily spark a fresh volatility wave.

Which one plays out? Derivatives data doesn’t offer a clean answer yet. Short-dated call interest is improving, but medium-term put demand remains strong. That split usually defines uncertain markets.

Sometimes silence is just silence. Sometimes it’s the gap before the next move. This weekend may tell which one it is.

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Upcoming $3B Bitcoin Options Expiry

Bitcoin dominates today’s expiry, with roughly $2.69 billion in notional value expiring. BTC was trading at $87,194 at the time of writing, marking a 0.54% increase over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin’s max pain level sits at $88,000, just above spot, where most options expire worthless. Open interest data shows a balanced but slightly cautious stance. Bitcoin call open interest stands at 17,506 contracts, put at 13,309 contracts, totaling 30,815 contracts with a put-to-call ratio of 0.76.

Deribit analysts note:

“BTC open interest is concentrated around 88K, with slightly heavier put positioning, pointing to a relatively contained expiry unless spot breaks range.”

This reinforces the view that Bitcoin may remain range-bound through settlement amid pre-holiday caution.

$470M Ethereum Options Expiry

Ethereum sees roughly $473 million in options expiring today. ETH trades at $2,928, up 3.37% in the past 24 hours. Max pain is $3,100, leaving spot below the key strike.

ETH open interest is more evenly distributed, with 78,524 call contracts versus 83,547 puts, put-to-call ratio 1.08, total 162,071 contracts. Wider positioning indicates short-term uncertainty.

Deribit analysts comment:

“ETH positioning is more distributed across strikes, with notable upside interest above 3.4K, keeping larger moves in play if volatility reaccelerates.”

Analysts suggest traders remain patient into settlement, waiting for a clearer catalyst rather than forcing a direction.

Post-Expiry and Long-Term Positioning

Attention shifts to December 26 and early 2026 positions. Deribit Insights notes, “December 26 85K Put OI ~15K ($1.25B), bears and FUD currently in control, while upside bets remain cautious.”

Longer-term flows show a constructive outlook, with 2026 positioning maintaining a bullish bias.

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As volatility rises, traders are focusing on “max pain” levels. According to Deribit, this expiry surpasses last week’s $6 billion event. The rollover of October contracts may increase liquidity and trigger short-term price movements.

Bitcoin Price Faces Max Pain Pressure

Bitcoin trades at $109,287 at the time of writing. During this expiry, 124,171 contracts, approximately $13.59 billion, will close. The max pain level sits at $114,000, the point where option holders experience maximum losses. Historically, BTC tends to move toward these levels as expiry approaches, reflecting market makers’ hedging activity.

Data shows a put-to-call ratio of 0.70, indicating a mild bullish bias. However, Greeks.live analysts warn that the market remains “fragile and bidless” after recent liquidations.

Key support levels lie at $112,000 and the CME gap between $110,000–$111,000. Resistance exists between $116,000–$118,000. If support breaks, $106,000 could trigger roughly a 3% correction.

Open interest has dropped from 100,000 to 70,000 contracts over the past month, suggesting waning trader participation and profit-taking.

Ethereum Shows Cautious Bullish Outlook

Ethereum trades at $3,854, with 646,902 contracts worth $2.49 billion expiring today. The max pain level is $4,100, slightly above the current price. Deribit data shows 381,462 call contracts surpassing 265,440 put contracts, signaling that traders hedge against upside while remaining cautious.

The put-to-call ratio of 0.70 reflects limited optimism. Deribit analysts note that easing U.S.-China trade tensions and improving macro conditions increase short-term upside risk.

Meanwhile, Greeks.live highlights that buyers remain weak and downside risk persists.

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According to data from Deribit, $21.097 billion in notional value across BTC and ETH contracts will roll off at 08:00 UTC. Analysts warn that rate cut signals, liquidity changes, and global risk sentiment could drive sharp price swings. 

Bitcoin Options Show Bullish Sentiment 

Bitcoin dominates with $16 billion in expiring options, representing the lion’s share of today’s activity. Open interest totals 146,224 contracts, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.71, signaling bullish expectations. 

The max pain level stands at $111,000, above the current price of $109,526. This suggests traders may attempt to push spot prices closer to that level as expiry passes, reflecting confidence despite recent pullbacks. 

Options Expiry Alert

At 08:00 UTC tomorrow, over $22.3B in crypto options expire on Deribit; one of the biggest quarter-end expiries. $BTC: Notional: $17.06B | Put/Call: 0.76 | Max Pain: $110K$ETH: Notional: $5.20B | Put/Call: 0.80 | Max Pain: $3,800

Q3’s largest… pic.twitter.com/FDT1tWomYH

— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) September 25, 2025

Ethereum Struggles Below $4,000 

Ethereum accounts for $5.08 billion in notional value with 1.28 million contracts. Its put-to-call ratio is 0.86, showing a more cautious stance than Bitcoin. 

The max pain level of $3,800 sits close to ETH’s current price of $3,963, after dipping below the psychological $4,000 mark earlier this week. Options analytics firm Greeks.live warned that implied volatility skew shifted toward puts, highlighting increased downside risks. 

Market Outlook and Macro Factors 

This expiry dwarfs last week’s $4.3 billion in contracts, underscoring the magnitude of today’s event. As Q3 closes, the crypto market navigates: 

• Bitcoin’s steadier consolidation range 
• Ethereum’s fragile technical outlook 
• Central bank policy shifts and liquidity changes 

Analysts suggest volatility may ease over the weekend as traders reposition. However, given its scale, this expiry could set the tone for Q4, where many investors are already placing bullish bets. 

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According to Deribit data, Bitcoin’s maximum pain point was set at $117,000. At the time of writing, BTC traded at $118,995. The put-call ratio for expiring Bitcoin options stood at 0.90, indicating more call positions than puts — a bullish signal. The nominal value of Bitcoin options reached $4.78 billion, with 40,185 open contracts. 

On the Ethereum side, the maximum pain point was $4,000, with ETH trading at $4,629. The put-call ratio came in at 1.02, showing a slight tilt toward put positions. Ethereum options had a nominal value of $1.33 billion and 287,946 open contracts. 

Record-Breaking Options Volume, Diverging Market 

Last week, $5 billion worth of options expired. This week, the figure exceeded $6 billion. Data from Greeks.live shows that the expiry followed a macro-driven market correction. PPI inflation hit 3.7%, the highest since March 2022, while core CPI rose above 3%. Despite this, implied volatility in the options market remained largely unchanged. 

Deribit set a new daily record with $10.9 billion in trading volume, signaling sustained investor interest. Some analysts warned that Bitcoin could peak near $122,000 and Ethereum close to $4,700. Heavy open interest and record volumes increase the likelihood of prices moving toward maximum pain levels. 

Glassnode data revealed that when Bitcoin reached a new all-time high, the profitable BTC supply surged to 99%. This figure was around 95% before the July correction and has never dropped below the cumulative average of 92% plus one standard deviation. 

Over the weekend, price action will determine whether bullish momentum continues or profit-taking triggers a pullback. 

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Bitcoin’s max pain level stands at $108,000, while Ethereum’s is at $2,600. These price levels could act as gravitational zones as contracts settle. However, any price drop may be temporary, as markets often stabilize quickly after large expiries.  

BTC and ETH Options Show Balanced Market Sentiment  

Data from Deribit reveals that Bitcoin options expiring today hold a notional value of $4.3 billion, with 36,970 contracts open. The Put/Call ratio (PCR) stands at 1.06, indicating slightly more sell positions than buy ones.  

Ethereum options set to expire are worth $712.35 million, covering 239,926 contracts. ETH also shows a Put/Call ratio of 1.11, which reflects a cautious but not overly bearish market stance.  

For context, last week’s expiry on July 4 totaled $3.6 billion, with 27,384 BTC and 237,274 ETH contracts. Today’s figures mark a significant increase in notional value for both assets. Notably, both weeks shared Put/Call ratios above 1, showing that investors remain hedged or unsure about short-term market direction.  

Leverage Spikes as Risk Appetite Grows  

Analysts at Greeks.live report a lack of consensus on direction, with traders relying heavily on news-driven setups. The platform noted extremely risky trades, including 500x leveraged positions, being opened near current price levels.  

“Traders are taking massive risks with high-confidence setups,” Greeks.live noted. These strategies may offer outsized returns but also expose investors to sudden, steep losses.  

As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $118,823, having set a new all-time high (ATH). Meanwhile, Ethereum stands at $3000, after a strong 7% intraday gain. Both are well above their respective max pain points.  

While a pullback toward these pain levels is possible as expiry approaches, a complete drop to $108K or $2,600 is unlikely. Still, short-term volatility could impact both retail and institutional strategies.  

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Market data shows the “max pain” level at $106,000. This price point is where most call and put options become worthless, making it the most advantageous level for sellers. The spot price is currently trading around $109,044, marking a 0.2% increase from yesterday. 

Put/Call Ratio Balanced, Sharp Drop in Volume 

Recent data shows the put/call ratio for this week’s options contracts is 1, indicating an equal distribution between bullish and bearish positions. However, with the price still $3,000 above the max pain level, there’s a risk of downward pressure as expiry nears. 

Trading volume fell by 21% in the last 24 hours to $28.9 billion. In a low-volume market environment, such as during options expiry, price sensitivity increases, potentially causing sharp fluctuations. The closing of large institutional options positions could push the price toward the $106,000 level. 

Options Expiry Alert

After last week’s massive $17B expiry, tomorrow brings a quieter setup, but still sizable.$BTC: $2.98B notional | Put/Call: 1.01 | Max Pain: $106K BTC now trades above $109K, will it hold into expiry or snap back toward max pain?$ETH: $584M notional… pic.twitter.com/CvFl5Ngviq

— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) July 3, 2025

Ethereum Contracts Bring Total Expiry Value to $3.6 Billion 

Additionally, about 220,000 Ethereum options contracts are also expiring. These Ethereum options represent a total nominal value of $584 million. Market data shows the max pain level at $2,500. On the ETH side, the put/call ratio stands at 1.28, indicating a stronger bearish sentiment in the market. 

Combined, Bitcoin and Ethereum option contracts expiring on Friday have a total nominal value of around $3.6 billion. This volume is significant enough to influence the direction of liquidity in the derivatives market. 

Meanwhile, crypto derivatives provider Greeks Live noted in a market update that investors are “disappointed by stagnant prices and high volatility.” The firm also emphasized that investor sentiment is shifting more strongly toward the downside. Moreover, open interest (OI) above $1.5 billion exists at the $115,000, $120,000, and $140,000 levels, signaling that investors remain optimistic in the longer term. 

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Bitcoin Options Expired, Eyes on Trump’s Tariffs 

Trump’s customs tariff pause will end on July 9, causing concern among crypto investors. On Friday, approximately 139,392 Bitcoin options worth around $17 billion expired. According to Deribit data, the put-call ratio was measured at 0.74. This ratio indicates that the market remains bullish. The max pain point was at $102,000. 

Despite these developments, Bitcoin held steady at the $107,500 level. However, altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), XRP, and Dogecoin (DOGE) lost between 2% and 5% in value. Investors believe the resistance at the $110,000 level is particularly strong. Data from Greek.Live showed mixed momentum signals in the market. Investors preferred to stay in profit or breakeven positions, increasing uncertainty in the market. 

How Will New Trade Agreements Affect Crypto? 

U.S. President Donald Trump and U.S. Trade Secretary Lutnick officially signed the U.S.-China trade agreement. This development temporarily eased global trade tensions. The new deal includes the relaxation of tariffs in certain sectors. If the Trump administration does not extend the 90-day customs tariff exemption, tariffs of up to 50% will be applied to the European Union. Additionally, country-specific “reciprocal tariffs” will come into effect. A general global tariff of 10% is also planned. 

This situation will continue to impact the crypto market, as investors may shift to less risky assets in response. However, some experts argue that such macroeconomic pressures could strengthen crypto in the mid-term. Arthur Hayes stated that developments like the SLR exemption and the GENIUS Stablecoin Act will have a positive long-term effect on digital assets. According to Hayes, Bitcoin may approach an all-time high. 

In addition, institutional interest in Bitcoin is growing through ETFs. This week, BlackRock’s IBIT product saw inflows exceeding $1.7 billion, indicating strong institutional support. 

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