This is not a conventional technical indicator. It does not rely on moving averages, RSI, or momentum oscillators. Instead, Peterson focuses on the internal rhythm of the market. By measuring how many months close positive within rolling 24-month windows, he attempts to identify structural balance. His interpretation is straightforward. When positive and negative months distribute evenly, the market often sits near transition zones rather than collapse phases.

Bitcoin’s 24-month data shows balance

Over the last two years, Bitcoin has produced an almost symmetrical performance structure. Twelve of the past 24 months ended in gains. The other twelve closed lower. In 2025 alone, Bitcoin recorded positive closes in January, April, May, June, July, and September. The remaining months leaned negative.

This kind of distribution matters. A structurally weak asset typically produces extended sequences of negative closes. Bitcoin has not shown that pattern. Instead, the data reflects equilibrium. Pressure exists, but so does resilience.

Peterson’s conclusion follows directly from this balance. Based on historical probability patterns, he estimates an 88% likelihood that Bitcoin will trade above current levels within the next 10 months.

This is not certainty. It is probability. Still, probability defines markets more often than prediction.

Bitcoin price remains below yearly start

Despite the statistical optimism, BTC continues to trade roughly 25% below its level at the beginning of the year. That decline has weighed heavily on sentiment. Confidence eroded gradually, not all at once. And gradual declines tend to leave deeper psychological marks.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index recently dropped to 9, placing sentiment firmly in the “Extreme Fear” zone. Historically, such readings appear near moments of structural stress. Sometimes they precede deeper declines. Other times, they appear just before stabilization begins.

Behavioral data from Santiment adds another subtle signal. Social media discussion and price prediction activity around Bitcoin have declined noticeably. At first glance, this looks like fading interest. In practice, it often reflects emotional exhaustion. Speculative noise fades. The market becomes quieter. And quiet markets often rebuild foundation.

Analysts divided on Bitcoin price outlook

Market participants remain split. Some analysts expect recovery in the near term. Among them is trader Michael van de Poppe, who recently suggested Bitcoin could see short-term strength following consecutive weak months.

Others remain cautious. Veteran trader Peter Brandt believes the true bottom may not arrive until October 2026. His view reflects the possibility that Bitcoin has not yet completed a full capitulation cycle.

These conflicting interpretations reflect a market still searching for direction. Neither bulls nor bears have established decisive control.

Historical data highlights key Bitcoin months

Seasonality data from CoinGlass reinforces the importance of late-year performance. Since 2013, November has delivered Bitcoin’s strongest average returns, exceeding 41%.

Prediction market data from Polymarket shows similar expectations. Traders currently assign November 2026 an 18% probability of being Bitcoin’s best-performing month, with December close behind at 17%.

This timing is not random. Strong performance periods often follow extended sentiment compression. Weak sentiment environments tend to reset positioning.

Bitcoin structure shows statistical stability

Bitcoin does not currently display a confirmed bullish trend. But it does not show structural collapse either. The equal distribution of positive and negative monthly closes suggests internal stability remains intact.

Markets rarely move in straight lines. They compress. They hesitate. They drift. Direction emerges later.

Peterson’s 88% probability estimate does not promise a rally. It simply reveals that beneath current fear and uncertainty, the statistical structure still allows for recovery.

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Investor Psychology and Bitcoin’s Growth

Kiyosaki emphasized that short-term losses often cloud investors’ perception of long-term growth. Using his own Coinbase example, he explained how his portfolio showed millions in Bitcoin holdings, yet a friend only focused on temporary value drops.

He stated, “Losers are more afraid of losing than of being rich.” According to Kiyosaki, this fear limits financial freedom. He believes that emotional discipline and patience are key traits for thriving in volatile markets like crypto.

Supporters and Critics React

Kiyosaki’s comments sparked mixed reactions within the crypto community. Supporters praised his focus on long-term vision and EQ, with one X user writing:

“Winners walk away. Losers get closer. EQ always beats IQ.”

This reflects the idea that patient, psychologically aware investors can benefit from volatility.

However, critics pointed out factual errors and Kiyosaki’s history of inaccurate forecasts. One Reddit post even charted his past market predictions, showing where they diverged from actual S&P 500 performance.

Market Outlook: Bitcoin’s 2025 Potential

Analysts say Kiyosaki’s projection aligns with growing optimism among certain investor circles. Yet, volatility and regulatory uncertainty remain major factors.

Behavioral finance experts note that loss aversion and fear often outweigh logic in decision-making. Kiyosaki’s emphasis on EQ reminds investors to separate emotion from strategy—recognizing dips without reacting impulsively.

Bullet List: EQ-Driven Investing Tips for 2025

• Focus on long-term gains, not temporary losses

• Keep emotions in check during volatility

• Maintain discipline and patience under pressure

• Treat market dips as strategic opportunities

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106K Target Hit After Bullish Breakout

In our previous analysis, it was noted that if Bitcoin broke through the 102,961 – 101,984 USD resistance zone, a target of 105,000 USD would be next. The breakout occurred with strong buying pressure, pushing BTC up to the 106,000 USD level — surpassing the forecasted target and validating the setup.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

The current focus shifts to the next resistance range between 106,622 and 105,725 USD. If Bitcoin manages to break above this zone with volume support, the path toward 110,000 USD becomes highly likely. Sustained momentum will be critical to keep the uptrend intact.

Key Support Levels on the Downside

In the event of a pullback, the nearest strong support remains the 102,961 – 101,984 USD range. As long as BTC holds above this level, the bullish bias remains valid in the short term.

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Saylor’s company, Strategy, has made headlines since 2020 with its large-scale BTC purchases. Its most recent acquisition—7,390 BTC worth nearly $765 million—has only strengthened its position. In a recent post to his 4.3 million followers, Saylor hinted at more to come, stating: “I only buy Bitcoin with money I can’t afford to lose.”

Consecutive Weekly Buys Continue

If another purchase is confirmed on May 26, it would mark Strategy’s seventh consecutive week of Bitcoin acquisitions. With total holdings now at 576,230 BTC, the unrealized capital gains have surpassed $21.8 billion at today’s BTC price of $107,274.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

This aggressive strategy positions Strategy as a pioneer among institutions, choosing to convert depreciating fiat into a scarce and appreciating digital asset—Bitcoin.

A $10 Trillion Giant In The Making?

Market analyst Jeff Walton believes Strategy could become a $10 trillion company, potentially outpacing every other publicly traded firm. “Strategy holds the best assets and the most pristine collateral on the planet—by far,” he told the Financial Times.

While Saylor predicts that Bitcoin will reach millions per coin in the long term, short-term price action has lagged. Analysts cite premature profit-taking and lack of conviction as the main culprits behind BTC’s struggle to break the $150,000 mark.

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Why Did Bitcoin Bull Expectations Change? 

Bitcoin’s price movements are generally tied to macroeconomic factors and investor behavior. The CryptoQuant CEO stated that he did not sufficiently consider these factors in his analyses. In particular, interest rates and global economic uncertainties impacted Bitcoin’s performance. This situation has led market analysts to adopt a more cautious approach. 

Ju explained, “Of course, the recent price movement is extremely bullish, but I’m talking about the profit-taking cycle.” 

What is CryptoQuant’s New Strategy? 

Ki Young Ju admitted his mistake and announced that he would adopt a new approach. He will now focus on more data-driven analyses. Additionally, he warned investors about short-term fluctuations. This strategy maintains confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential. 

“Two months ago, I said the bull market was over, but that prediction was wrong. 

“Now, instead of worrying about old whales selling, it’s more important to focus on how much new liquidity is coming from institutions and ETFs, as this new inflow can offset even strong whale selling,” he said. 

Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong. #Bitcoin selling pressure is easing, and massive inflows are coming through ETFs.

In the past, the Bitcoin market was pretty simple. The main players were old whales, miners, and new retail investors, basically… pic.twitter.com/oN4n6vNc0s

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) May 9, 2025

The Bitcoin market still has a volatile structure. Experts recommend conducting thorough research before investing. CryptoQuant’s updated reports can serve as a guide in this process. However, the risks in the market should not be ignored. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $103,018.24. 

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju’s confession has reshaped Bitcoin bull cycle expectations. Therefore, it is critical for investors to follow updated analyses. Additionally, market uncertainties require strategic decision-making. 

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Speaking in an interview with CNBC on April 28, Chung pointed to growing institutional adoption and the expansion of global liquidity as the primary factors behind his bullish stance.

While acknowledging that this year’s macroeconomic conditions have not unfolded as initially expected, Chung described the recent market pullbacks as “healthy corrections,” suggesting they have laid a stronger foundation for Bitcoin’s rise as a mainstream financial asset.

“Looking back, I believe these corrections were necessary steps that have paved the way for Bitcoin’s long-term revaluation,” he said.

Bitcoin’s Dual Identity: A Risk Asset and Digital Gold

Chung also emphasized Bitcoin’s unique nature, explaining that it typically acts as a high-risk investment driven by user adoption and network expansion.

However, during times of financial instability — such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 or the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023 — Bitcoin has often behaved like a safe-haven asset similar to gold.

“These instances are rare,” Chung noted, adding that Bitcoin tends to assume this role only when confidence in the US dollar-centered financial system weakens.

Although Bitcoin recently lagged behind gold amid market turbulence, Chung remains confident that BTC could catch up and potentially outperform traditional safe-haven assets by the end of the year.

He also reiterated Presto’s positive outlook on Ethereum, mentioning that their valuation models based on the ETH-to-BTC ratio still hold strong, driven by ongoing network improvements.

Institutional Demand Drives Bitcoin to $94,000

Supporting Chung’s perspective, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley recently highlighted on X that Bitcoin’s climb to $94,000 has been largely fueled by institutional investors, while retail participation remains historically low.

According to Horsley, major buyers now include financial advisors, corporations, and even sovereign entities, signaling a shift in the market’s structure.

“The types of investors entering the Bitcoin market are evolving,” Horsley commented, underlining the growing sophistication of market participants.

Meanwhile, data from BitcoinTreasuries.NET reveals that corporate Bitcoin holdings have now reached nearly $65 billion.

Recent analyses by Standard Chartered and Intellectia AI suggest that demand from ETFs and investors seeking to hedge against macroeconomic risks could potentially more than double Bitcoin’s price within this year.

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Bitcoin, despite recent price corrections and declining investor appetite due to ongoing global trade tensions, is still on track to exceed $1.8 million by 2035. This assessment was made by Joe Burnett, Director of Market Research at Unchained.

Speaking during the Chainreaction live broadcast on X, Burnett stated that Bitcoin is in a long-term bull cycle and could potentially surpass or rival gold’s $21 trillion market capitalization within the next decade.

Despite tariff uncertainty limiting risk appetite among investors, research analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects.

“When I think about where Bitcoin will be in 10 years, there are two models I admire,” said Burnett, “One is the parallel model, which suggests that Bitcoin will be about $1.8 million in 2035.” “The other is Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin 24 model, which suggests Bitcoin will be $2.1 million by 2035.”

Burnett emphasized that both are “good base cases,” adding that Bitcoin‘s trajectory could exceed these predictions depending on broader macroeconomic factors.

Bitcoin’s Long-Term Outlook Remains Bullish

“The automobile industry is significantly more valuable than the horse and buggy industry,” said Burnett, adding that Bitcoin’s more advanced technological properties will help it surpass the $21 trillion market capitalization of gold. He continued:

“The gold market is an estimated $21 trillion market. If Bitcoin just hit $21 trillion and had Bitcoin-gold parity, Bitcoin would be $1 million per coin today.”

Since U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, global markets have been under pressure due to heightened trade war fears. Hours after taking office, Trump threatened to impose sweeping import tariffs aimed at reducing the country’s trade deficit, negatively impacting both equities and cryptocurrency markets.

Bitcoin’s role as a safe-haven asset may reemerge amid ongoing trade war concerns, while physical gold and tokenized gold remain the current winners.

Tariff fears led tokenized gold trading volume to surge to a two-year high this week, topping $1 billion for the first time since the 2023 U.S. banking crisis.

Strong Hands Buy During Drawdowns

Bitcoin’s volatility is decreasing during both bear and bull markets, signaling its growing maturity as an asset class.

Burnett noted that while another 80% drawdown during future bear markets is possible, it will serve as a robust acquisition period for the “strongest” holders, adding:

“The highs bring Bitcoin attention, and the deep, dark bear markets move coins into the hands of the strongest, most convicted holders as fast as possible.”

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, predicted Bitcoin could climb to $250,000 by the end of 2025 if the U.S. Federal Reserve formally enters a quantitative easing cycle.

Despite the optimistic predictions, investors remain cautious and continue “rebalancing their portfolios” but are unlikely to take on significant positions in the next 90 days before markets gain more clarity on global tariff negotiations, said Enmanuel Cardozo, market analyst at real-world asset tokenization platform Brickken.

“With money flowing out of Bitcoin ETFs, investors are looking for safer spots to hold their cash right now, including strong currencies. Gold’s a traditional vehicle in these cases and a go-to when markets are uncertain,” he added.

Since the beginning of 2025, gold prices have risen over 23%, outperforming Bitcoin, which has fallen by more than 10% year-to-date, according to TradingView data.

This content does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry high risk, and it is important to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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Standard Chartered: Bitcoin Could Reach $500,000 Due to Trump’s Crypto Policies

Standard Chartered has suggested that Bitcoin’s value could increase to $500,000 within just three years, driven by the maturation of America’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the pro-crypto policies of the Trump administration.

The bank’s Head of Digital Asset Research, Geoff Kendrick, stated in a research note, “We expect Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, $300,000 by the end of 2026, $400,000 by the end of 2027, and $500,000 by the end of 2028. We expect it to stay at this level until the end of 2029.”

Standard Chartered also pointed out that the current conditions will “drive Bitcoin to $500,000 before Trump leaves office.”

Trump’s Crypto Reserve and Bitcoin’s Potential

Kendrick emphasized that institutional interest in Bitcoin ETFs is expected to continue growing, especially with the impact of President Donald Trump’s crypto-friendly policies. In January, the Trump administration unveiled an executive order aimed at providing regulatory clarity and encouraging investment in the crypto sector.

Furthermore, with more retail interest in Bitcoin under Trump’s administration, the market’s liquidity could increase, and Bitcoin’s wider acceptance could trigger an upward price movement.

Last year, Trump’s presidential campaign included a pledge to build a crypto reserve. He later announced that the U.S. would include Bitcoin, Ether, XRP (Ripple), Solana, and Cardano in this reserve. However, the inclusion of non-Bitcoin assets has raised concerns within the crypto community.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong believes that having only Bitcoin in the reserve would be sufficient: “Just Bitcoin might be the best option,” he said.

One of the figures who has speculated on Bitcoin’s future is Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman at Strategy. Saylor suggested that Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, could soon reach a $200 trillion market cap.

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Pseudonymous crypto trader Pentoshi stated in a Feb. 22 X post that “a move back to $106K will likely lead to a new round of price discovery.”

Bitcoin May Retest $85K if Support Fails

However, Pentoshi warned that if Bitcoin loses its $92,000-$94,000 support range, the next critical support could be $85,000, a level it hasn’t traded at since Nov. 12. Earlier, crypto analyst AlejandroBTC had also predicted that “it kinda looks like we’re heading for $85K.”

As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $96,340 (CoinMarketCap data).

Could Bitcoin Continue Its Uptrend?

Despite the potential downside, Pentoshi remains bullish, arguing that Bitcoin has spent considerable time consolidating in this range:

“For now, I have to maintain a bullish bias as it hasn’t broken down and we’ve spent a lot of time in this range.”

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

While some analysts believe $85,000 could be a strong local bottom, others argue that Bitcoin may drop even further before regaining momentum.

On Jan. 27, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted that Bitcoin could drop to $70,000-$75,000, possibly triggering a mini financial crisis.

Traders Uncertain About Bitcoin’s Next Move!

Some traders believe it’s too soon to predict Bitcoin’s next move.

Pseudonymous trader Mister Crypto told his 136,200 X followers that $90,000 would be his signal to “open up another huge trade.”

On the same day, AshCrypto predicted that Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high in March. According to CoinGlass data, March has historically delivered an average return of 13.42% since 2013.

Bitcoin’s all-time high of $109,000 was set on Jan. 20, just before Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration.

What Is Bitcoin’s Long-Term Future?

Some market commentators are focusing on Bitcoin’s long-term outlook rather than short-term trends.

ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood has increased her odds of Bitcoin hitting $1.5 million by 2030, citing growing institutional adoption:

“We actually think the odds have gone up that our bull case will be the right number because of what is becoming the institutionalization of this new asset class.”

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According to Morehead, Bitcoin has almost doubled every year, giving it an 88% compounded annual growth rate. If this trend continues, Bitcoin could reach $740,000 by 2028, with a market capitalization of $15 trillion.

Morehead also believes that the upcoming presidency of Donald Trump, who is pro-blockchain, could have a positive impact on the crypto industry. His presidency might bring regulatory clarity, which would benefit the entire blockchain sector.

Since its launch, Pantera has made significant profits by investing in Bitcoin, purchasing it when it was priced around $65. Morehead views Bitcoin as the first global currency since gold, with the potential to transform the financial system.

This growth potential makes Bitcoin a key player in the digital asset ecosystem, and Morehead’s forecast reinforces the belief in Bitcoin’s long-term success.

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