At this point, investors are wondering: Which direction will the Fed’s upcoming policy decisions push the market in the short term? The market seems to be pricing in possible scenarios already, but the outcomes are still unclear.

February CPI Data and Market Reaction

BLS data for February shows:

• Housing costs up 0.2%

• Food prices up 0.4%

• Energy costs up 0.6%

• Core CPI (excluding food and energy) up 0.2%

Stephen Coltman, macro head at 21Shares, said:

“Will the Fed ignore this temporary shock, or will it maintain a hawkish stance?”

Despite February CPI, crypto markets remained resilient. Total crypto market capitalization indicators, excluding Bitcoin, confirm this. BTC traded around $69,468 and ETH at $2,028.

What Does This Scenario Mean for Bitcoin?

Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares, noted that Bitcoin is likely to remain within the $68,000–$74,000 range in the short term. However, the $75,000 resistance level is approaching, and surpassing it could signal a medium-term consolidation between $75,000 and $80,000.

Historical price data supports this scenario: after geopolitical shocks, BTC typically rebounds by 15% or more. This suggests potential price growth to the $77,000–$80,000 range, serving as a key indicator for investor expectations.

Oil Attacks and Stagflation Concerns

According to CME FedWatch, only 0.6% of investors expect a rate cut at the March 18 meeting. Following attacks on oil tankers in Iraqi waters, Brent crude surpassed $100 per barrel. A short-lived relief rally faded, and Bitcoin slipped below $70,000.

On-chain data indicates sustained selling pressure due to stagflation fears triggered by geopolitical tensions and declining short-term rate cut expectations. High oil prices complicate ignoring stagflation scenarios and make rate cuts less likely.

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Bitcoin Holdings by Public Firms Up 120% in 2025

Blockware, the research arm of Blockware Solutions, reported a 120% rise in the number of publicly listed companies holding BTC in 2025 alone. Many of these firms are either new market entrants or struggling businesses looking for alternative value storage methods.

The firm explains that companies with stagnating growth find it easier to commit retained earnings to Bitcoin, targeting compound annual growth rates of 40–60% without bearing traditional operational risks.

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Data from BitcoinTreasuries.net shows that MicroStrategy leads the space with 597,325 BTC, holding nearly 12 times more than the second-largest holder, mining firm MARA Holdings with 50,000 BTC.

Analysts Caution Against Over-Reliance on Bitcoin Treasury Strategy

Despite the rapid expansion, not all experts are optimistic. Glassnode’s lead analyst James Check recently warned that the window for easy gains might be closing. On July 4, he expressed doubts about the long-term viability of the Bitcoin treasury model, saying that many firms might face liquidity challenges if NAV premiums decline.

A recent report by venture capital firm Breed echoed this sentiment, stating that only a handful of companies will survive the upcoming volatility. The report added that these treasury-heavy firms could play a critical role in the next crypto downturn.

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Historical Weakness in DXY and Its Impact on Bitcoin 

On July 1, 2025, the DXY fell to 96.377, a level not seen in over three years. According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin maintains an inverse correlation with the US Dollar Index. The DXY remaining below its 200-day moving average often creates upward momentum for BTC. 

Darkfost highlights that despite US debt reaching an all-time high, the dollar fails to show strength. He notes this as the largest deviation in the last 21 years. However, such weakness tends to benefit risk assets like Bitcoin. 

Historical data confirms that such periods have been highly favorable for BTC. Currently, DXY’s decline may set the stage for a new Bitcoin rally, although the price has not yet responded. 

Historically, Bitcoin moves inversely to the dollar index. As the dollar weakens, investors tend to shift to alternative assets. This leads to changes in portfolio allocations, increasing demand for Bitcoin. 

Current Correlation Status Between Bitcoin and DXY 

So far, Bitcoin has not fully responded to the dollar’s historical weakness. However, chart patterns show that periods where DXY stays below its annual average are generally favorable for BTC, signaling potential for a future rally. 

TradingView data shows that DXY has lost more than 10% of its value since the beginning of the year. Darkfost emphasizes that investors are turning away from the dollar as a safe haven and shifting capital toward risk assets. 

“Looking at historical data, it becomes clear that such periods have been highly favorable to BTC. We are currently in a phase where the weakness of the DXY could fuel a new rise in BTC but the price didn’t react yet.” 

Bitcoin’s inverse correlation with the dollar stands out as a critical element in the market. This trend continues as part of the broader risk-on asset narrative. As the dollar weakens, investors increasingly consider Bitcoin for their portfolios. 

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Saylor first made this prediction at the 2024 Nashville Bitcoin Conference, stating that Bitcoin could reach that level with an average annual growth rate of 29%. However, he now paints a more optimistic picture. According to his new forecast, Bitcoin could hit this price even before 2045 with a 40% annual return. 

Saylor clearly outlines the key reasons behind this prediction. Accelerating institutional adoption, a more defined regulatory environment, and Bitcoin’s limited supply are the main drivers behind the potential price increase. 

ETFs and Companies Increasing Bitcoin Investments 

Saylor notes that more than 100 publicly traded companies now hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets—a number that continues to grow weekly. Additionally, Bitcoin ETFs are fueling further demand for the cryptocurrency. Currently, these ETFs have attracted $44.29 billion in investments and manage $122.98 billion in assets. 

Moreover, pension funds and endowments are beginning to see Bitcoin as a store of value. This trend is strengthening Bitcoin’s position within the financial system. New banking regulations in the U.S. are also making it easier for Bitcoin to be officially recognized as a digital asset, simplifying the investment process for institutions. 

Limited Supply Drives Demand 

According to Saylor, Bitcoin’s supply is highly restricted. Only 450 new Bitcoins enter the market daily, and this supply is typically consumed quickly by treasury companies and ETFs. This creates strong upward pressure on the price. 

Strategy continues its Bitcoin purchases. The company has planned a $1 billion capital raise, which will primarily be used to buy more Bitcoin and support the company’s needs—reflecting its confidence in its long-term strategy. Japan-based Metaplanet is also joining this trend. The firm aims to increase its Bitcoin investments through a $5.4 billion capital raise. By issuing 5.55 billion new shares, it’s capitalizing on market interest. 

Although Bitcoin is currently trading below $105,000, Saylor remains optimistic. The amount of BTC held on exchanges has dropped to its lowest level in seven years, indicating that institutional investors are still buying. 

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On January 20, during his inauguration, Donald Trump announced import tariffs on Chinese goods. In the two months following this statement, Bitcoin has dropped 18%, while the S&P 500 index has lost over 7%.

According to Stella Zlatareva, an editor at the Nexo investment platform, the April 2 announcement could be a key turning point for the markets.

Trump’s New Tariffs and Their Global Impact

The Washington Post reported that Trump is pressuring his top advisers to take a more aggressive stance on import tariffs, raising concerns about an escalating trade war.

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The April 2 announcement is expected to detail reciprocal trade tariffs targeting major U.S. trading partners. These measures aim to reduce the country’s $1.2 trillion trade deficit and boost domestic manufacturing.

Bitcoin ETFs and Whales Keep Accumulating

Despite market uncertainty, large Bitcoin holders (“whales”) with 1,000–10,000 BTC continue accumulating.

Since the beginning of 2025, whale addresses have increased from 1,956 to over 1,990, though still below the previous cycle’s peak of 2,370 in February 2024.

Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev noted that risk appetite remains low due to tariff threats and macro uncertainty:

“Whale accumulation and a 10-day ETF inflow streak signal steady institutional demand. However, hawkish surprises from inflation or trade policies could keep crypto rangebound in April.”

However, Bitcoin spot ETFs ended their 10-day accumulation streak on March 28. Fidelity’s ETF saw $93 million in outflows, while other ETF issuers reported zero inflows or outflows.

Long-Term Bitcoin Outlook

Despite short-term volatility concerns, analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $160,000–$180,000 by late 2025.

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