Some assets remain calm, others shift direction on a single headline. This week’s numbers could push the expected rate path further out than many anticipate.

Why Crypto Still Feels Cautious

Why can’t cryptocurrencies gain upside momentum? The answer isn’t found only in charts or whale activity. This week’s incoming data wave is reshaping macro expectations and once again putting the long-discussed rally narrative to the test. Even a small deviation in the PCE print could shelve the rate-cut timeline. That’s why understanding why markets may be forced to accept a “higher for longer” scenario is becoming increasingly critical.

Banks See Sticky Inflation

Major banks still don’t see a comforting picture in core PCE. Goldman Sachs points to core PCE tracking near 3% year over year — a level that keeps distance from the Fed’s 2% target.

Bank of America echoes that view, flagging near-term inflation stickiness. The shared takeaway is clear: without convincing cooling, policymakers are unlikely to move quickly. That keeps the risk of delayed rate cuts firmly on the table.

Why Rate-Cut Hopes Are Slipping

It’s not just inflation making markets uneasy — the legal front is tense as well. A true data deluge lies ahead. The PCE price index and Fed minutes will offer clues on disinflation momentum, while the Supreme Court of the United States is expected to deliver a key ruling tied to Trump-era tariffs.

That case adds another layer of uncertainty to trade policy. If the Court narrows presidential authority, pressure on import costs could ease over time — though any inflation impact would likely take longer to surface.

The Number Markets Are Stuck On

Persistently elevated core PCE reinforces the “higher for longer” narrative. Financial conditions have become increasingly sensitive to every incremental data point. On the trade side, the future of tariffs remains pivotal, especially for sectors already operating under cost pressure.

Some economists push back on claims that rolling back emergency tariffs would trigger economic disaster. Instead, many argue that businesses are already grappling with high input costs — and that uncertainty itself has become a separate burden.

With the macro calendar packed, crypto markets remain fragile. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was fluctuating around the $69,000 level, with volatility staying elevated. Risk sentiment from traditional markets continues to spill directly into digital assets.

If rate-cut expectations slide further, pressure on risk assets could intensify in the short term. That’s why investors are watching Fed minutes and PCE not just for bonds and equities — but for crypto direction as well.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Why Isn’t Crypto Rising? Fed Minutes and PCE Hold the Key appeared first on Coin Engineer.

The pullback unfolded while prices were already under pressure. ERC-20 stablecoin supply fell from around $162 billion to $155 billion, marking the first sharp weekly contraction during the current market cycle. This was not a routine fluctuation. It reflected a broader hesitation to keep capital deployed on-chain.

Liquidity Leaves as Exchanges Grow Lighter

When stablecoin supply shrinks, the implication is usually straightforward. Capital is moving back into fiat. Issuers respond by burning excess tokens, and the market loses part of its immediate liquidity cushion. As that cushion thins, price moves tend to rely more on gaps than on demand.

Exchange data reinforced the picture. Binance recorded over $6 billion in net outflows across major assets during the same week. Bitcoin accounted for nearly $2 billion, Ethereum roughly $1.3 billion, and ERC-20 USDT more than $3 billion. In practical terms, this looked less like internal rotation and more like capital stepping aside.

Not all stablecoin flows pointed in the same direction. USDT on the Tron network saw inflows of about $900 million, suggesting that some investors were repositioning rather than fully exiting. Still, the broader signal leaned defensive rather than constructive.

Risk Assets and Stablecoins Retreat Together

Periods when both risk assets and stablecoins leave exchanges rarely produce clear price direction. Instead, they tend to coincide with higher volatility and weaker conviction. For now, the data suggests that buyers are cautious and liquidity is no longer doing the heavy lifting.

Bitcoin slipped below $88,000 during the same window, pushing weekly losses beyond 5%. The decline mattered less than what accompanied it. As prices softened, stablecoin supply failed to expand, reducing the likelihood of aggressive dip-buying.

Macro Liquidity Adds to the Strain

The pressure was not limited to crypto-native flows. Binance’s USDT reserves dropped from about $9.2 billion in early January to $4.6 billion by the 24th. At the same time, Bitcoin inflows picked up, a pattern more consistent with profit-taking than renewed risk appetite.

Beyond crypto, system-wide liquidity tightened as well. U.S. Federal Reserve net liquidity declined by roughly $90 billion over several days, driven by shifts in Treasury and reverse repo balances. Historically, such contractions have weighed on risk assets, digital currencies included.

Why It Matters

Stablecoins function as the crypto market’s working capital. Their presence is often invisible, but their absence is felt quickly. When supply contracts, recoveries tend to stall and rallies struggle to sustain momentum.

Longer-term narratives around stablecoins as global payment infrastructure remain intact. In the near term, however, on-chain data paints a different picture. Capital is pulling back, liquidity support is fading, and the market is being forced to move without its usual buffer.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Crypto Liquidity Is Thinning as Stablecoin Supply Pulls Back appeared first on Coin Engineer.

The timing stood out. Chinese officials described Trump’s demands related to Venezuelan oil as a “serious violation of international law,” calling the move a “typical act of coercion.” Those comments added strain to an already fragile risk environment, amplifying hesitation across speculative assets.

ETF Flows Deepen the Bitcoin Crack

Activity in spot Bitcoin ETFs reinforced the negative tone. Daily net outflows reached roughly 243 million dollars, pointing to sustained distribution pressure. BlackRock was the clear outlier, as institutional clients added more than 230 million dollars worth of Bitcoin and close to 197 million dollars in Ethereum.

Even so, that selective demand failed to offset the broader trend. The risk is becoming harder to ignore: if ETF outflows persist, downside pressure may extend beyond technical levels and into sentiment-driven territory.

Gold Holds Its Ground as China Stays Active

Gold painted a more controlled picture. After three consecutive sessions of strong gains, spot gold stabilized near 4,470 dollars an ounce. Prices had climbed more than 4% over recent sessions before momentum cooled, reflecting short-term profit-taking rather than a clear shift in direction.

Structural demand remains the key support. China has now logged its 14th straight month of central bank gold purchases. Since November 2024, the People’s Bank of China is estimated to have added over 1.35 million ounces to its reserves. Goldman Sachs suggests China’s actual buying in September alone may have reached 15 tons, far exceeding officially disclosed figures.

That gap hints at demand that may still be underappreciated by the market.

Oil Slides as Supply Expectations Take Shape

Oil prices reacted faster to the shifting narrative. Brent crude fell by 35 cents to 60.35 dollars a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped 52 cents to 56.61 dollars. Traders grew cautious as expectations of increased Venezuelan supply resurfaced.

The White House confirmed that Trump is set to meet with executives from major U.S. oil companies on Friday. Trump also said Venezuela could send between 30 and 50 million barrels of crude to the U.S., potentially generating up to 3 billion dollars in revenue, with sales conducted at market prices.

Coming just days after U.S. military action involving Venezuela, the remarks sharpened perceptions of geopolitical risk rather than easing them.

Stocks Touch Records, Then Stall

U.S. equity markets briefly tested fresh highs before losing momentum into the close. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached intraday records, only to drift sideways as confidence faded. Bank stocks came under pressure following downgrades, while housing-related names suffered heavier losses.

Futures markets, however, barely moved. Dow futures edged up less than 0.1%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures traded flat, suggesting markets have yet to fully process the growing list of risks.

Quiet Signals From Bonds and Metals

Japan’s 30-year government bond yield climbed to 3.52%, marking an all-time high and fueling speculation about stress points forming within the global financial system.

Silver slid 2.2% on the day but remained up about 12% year-to-date, largely supported by retail demand from China. Platinum fell 4.2%, palladium dropped 2.9%, and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%, pointing to a modest but persistent defensive bias.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Bitcoin and Gold After Trump’s Move: Where Markets Stand Now appeared first on Coin Engineer.