Is the Stage in Spot Markets?

The source of the recent rise is not leveraged transactions or sudden speculative movements as many think. On the contrary, stable demand in spot markets and on-chain data are the real engines of this rise. Especially the large purchases and ETF inflows made through Coinbase constitute the basic building blocks that carry the price of Bitcoin up.

Glassnode’s data defines this rise as “organic”. In other words, the price increase is based on real investor demand rather than speculation. However, derivatives markets are only reacting this time and not determining the direction.

Bitcoin Purchases: Is the $93,000 – $95,000 Range the New Accumulation Area?

While the Bitcoin price consolidates above $100,000, a new “accumulation area” where investors are concentrated is also becoming apparent: between $93,000 and $95,000. This level corresponds to the average cost of short-term investors, namely those who have purchased Bitcoin in the last 155 days. In other words, a significant amount of purchases have been made in this area and this is now a strong technical support point.

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In past bull seasons, the market often found direction with excitement and haste. However, this time the picture is different. Investors are more conscious, more cautious and act based on technical signals. The “buy from the dip” strategy has been clearly adopted and systematic purchases are made in price pullbacks.

Daily inflows, especially in the ETF market, show that this strategy is also adopted at the institutional level. The $389 million ETF inflow on April 25 is the most striking example of this.

Is the Infrastructure Being Prepared for a Bitcoin Bull?

Bitcoin’s horizontal movement between $100,703 and $105,787 reflects a classic consolidation structure. This structure is usually interpreted as a pause phase before a strong price jump. Moreover, on-chain signals and whales’ non-aggressive but determined purchases suggest that we are in the early stages of a new bull cycle.

The invisible architects of the rise are no longer high-leveraged positions; they are actors who make strategic plans, know risk management and act with the right timing. What is driving the market up is a calm but deep wave of demand.

Current Market Data

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The El Salvador Treasury acquired 7 Bitcoin (BTC) worth over 650,000$ in the seven days leading up to April 27, according to blockchain data shared by the country’s Bitcoin Office.

Rodrigo Valdes, Director of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department, confirmed during an April 26 press briefing that El Salvador is still complying with the agreement prohibiting Bitcoin accumulation by the government sector. “The El Salvador program is not just about Bitcoin, it involves deeper structural reforms, governance improvements, and enhanced transparency,” Valdes said.

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In December 2024, El Salvador signed a deal with the IMF for a 1.4 billion dollar loan, which required the government to drop Bitcoin’s legal tender status and halt additional BTC purchases.

Flexible Interpretation Leaves Room for Bitcoin Buys

Intergovernmental blockchain advisor and author Anndy Lian explained that the IMF deal might allow non-governmental entities to continue acquiring Bitcoin. “The flexible interpretation allows Bitcoin purchases through non-public sector assets or reclassified investments,” Lian said.

This strategy enables El Salvador to maintain its Bitcoin-friendly image while meeting IMF funding requirements. Lian also emphasized that El Salvador’s experience offers critical lessons for other nations considering crypto adoption.

El Salvador’s case highlights the tension between financial innovation and traditional economic frameworks, underlining the importance of strong regulatory frameworks and robust state capacity to withstand international financial pressures.

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El Salvador signed a $1.4 billion loan deal with the IMF in December 2024. As part of the agreement, the government pledged to revoke Bitcoin’s legal tender status and reduce public sector involvement with BTC. However, data shows the government is continuing its daily purchases.

Total Reserves Reach 6,105 Bitcoin

According to the El Salvador Bitcoin Office, the country’s Bitcoin treasury now holds 6,105 BTC, valued at more than $527 million at current prices. The country usually acquires 1 BTC per day but made a bulk purchase of 5 BTC on March 3.

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Bukele: “We Will Not Stop Buying”

On March 3, the IMF issued a new request pressuring El Salvador to stop accumulating Bitcoin and forbidding any issuance of debt or tokenized securities tied to BTC. Despite this, Nayib Bukele declared that the government will continue buying BTC, characterizing the IMF’s demands as “whining.”

Bukele stated:

“If it didn’t stop when the world ostracized us and most ‘bitcoiners’ abandoned us, it won’t stop now, and it won’t stop in the future.”

El Salvador’s unapologetically pro-Bitcoin stance has led many major crypto firms to relocate to the country. On January 7, Bitfinex Derivatives announced it would move its headquarters from Seychelles to El Salvador. On January 13, stablecoin issuer Tether followed by announcing plans to relocate its headquarters to El Salvador.

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The company announced on December 19 that it had purchased 990 Bitcoin (BTC) at an average price of $101,710, aligning with its strategy of combining low-cost Bitcoin production with opportunistic market purchases to establish BTC as a reserve asset.

Hut 8‘s expansion of its BTC reserves highlights the increasing interest from institutional investors in Bitcoin as a strategic asset in financial portfolios. This trend gains momentum as the United States prepares for a more crypto-friendly administration under Donald Trump.

With this purchase, Hut 8 has brought its total BTC reserves to 10,096 BTC, with an average acquisition cost of $24,484.

Strategic Reserve Management

Hut 8 CEO Asher Genoot stated that the company’s strategic BTC reserve is a vital component of its treasury strategy and aligns with its operational and capital objectives. Genoot explained, “As we scale operations and extend our cost advantage in Bitcoin production, we expect to grow these reserves organically at prices significantly below market rates.”

The company aims to raise a total of $500 million to purchase BTC as a strategic reserve asset, supported by a recent $250 million stock repurchase and sale program.

Hut 8 Class-Action Lawsuit

On December 2, the company filed a motion to dismiss a class-action lawsuit initiated by its shareholders. The lawsuit allegedly stems from a short-seller report by J Capital Research, which Hut 8 claims was part of a campaign to sink its stock for financial gain.

The lawsuit arose after J Capital Research accused Hut 8 of overstating the profitability of its acquisition of United States Bitcoin Corp. and concealing operational issues at a Texas facility. Hut 8 has denied these allegations.

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