US-Iran Tensions and the Oil Market

The US-Iran conflict has rapidly pushed Brent crude higher. According to Hayes, if prices remain at these levels, 10-year Treasury yields could spike in a volatile way, potentially driving the MOVE Index upward; this is considered a prerequisite for Fed money printing. It’s still early, but investors should watch this closely as an important indicator.

Similar past scenarios have prompted the Fed to expand its balance sheet and inject liquidity, supporting Bitcoin and other risk assets.

The Connection Between Oil, the Fed, and Bitcoin

When Middle East tensions push Brent crude higher, energy costs increase, creating inflationary pressure in the economy. Historically, the Fed has responded to economic stress or rising costs by providing liquidity through money printing or balance sheet expansion. While higher oil prices don’t directly force the Fed to print money, the chain reaction can boost liquidity and create upward pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets.

US Intervention and Oil Prices

US President Donald Trump previously confirmed that the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East could last for weeks. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has taken steps to keep oil prices in check. India was granted a 30-day waiver to buy Russian oil, temporarily stabilizing markets. Today, Brent crude is trading around $80, providing a fresh market signal for Google Discover.

Bitcoin and Crypto Market Reaction

Historically, Fed money printing has triggered sharp Bitcoin rallies. Currently, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are lagging due to low liquidity and bear market sentiment. Hayes notes that taking positions before confirmed Fed rate cuts or balance sheet expansions would be premature.

Crypto investors should also monitor rising inflation concerns, which could reduce the likelihood of Fed rate cuts. According to the CME FedWatch tool, a potential rate cut may occur in September.

Micro Data and Analytical Notes

• Brent crude: $80 (down ~1% today)

• 10-year Treasury yield: rising, aligned with MOVE Index

• MOVE Index: potential upward movement

• Bitcoin: liquidity is low, but potential rallies may occur with Fed intervention

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Market Flows Into Altcoins While Bitcoin Holds Ground

Bitcoin closed the week up around 2.99%, but the rise alone was not impressive. The real difference came as buyers stepped in during small pullbacks, a typical reaction when the market senses clarity in direction.

Notably, trading interest was not scattered. Volume concentrated on certain tokens, signaling where speculative attention was focused.

Weekly Standouts

• Definitive (EDGE): +64.9% to $0.1645; $12.8M daily volume

• ORE: +62% to $153.98, a surprising weekly mover

• White Whale (WHITEWHALE): +59.1% to $0.06609

• MYX Finance (MYX): +88.03% to $6.53, a standout performer

• Chintai (CHEX): +35.7% to $0.04472, rounding out the top gainers

MYX’s Sharp Turn Is Not a Coincidence

MYX Finance coins closed the week up 82.66% at $6.23, with daily volume surpassing $125M. The surge cannot be explained solely by retail interest. After a period of weakness, this rapid recovery reflects a pattern often seen when Bitcoin is strong.

While such sharp gains are rarely fully sustainable, they demand attention.

PEPE Returns but Risks Remain

PEPE coins rose roughly 50% weekly to stabilize at $0.000006123. Daily trading volume reached $1.23B, highlighting the short-term, high-frequency nature of the move. The breakout came after a prolonged consolidation, showing why meme tokens tend to surge during Bitcoin-led rallies.

However, such momentum often produces equally sharp reversals.

Canton (CC) Moves Quietly but Significantly

CC rose 40.29% to $0.1533. Daily volume hovered around $26M, suggesting the movement is part of broader altcoin strength. Although less talked about than MYX or PEPE, such increases indicate a widening market base. True breakouts often begin quietly, before making headlines.

Bitcoin’s Decision Zone Remains Unclear

Bitcoin currently trades between two key liquidity zones. On the upside, $91,000–$92,000 remains a critical area; on the downside, $88,500–$89,000 draws attention. A gap around $88,200 in CME futures still stands as a potential pivot point.

The $90,000 level is holding, but it is not yet confirmed. Altcoin surges reflect that Bitcoin’s next move could quickly reshape the market again.

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Market analysts note that these sudden surges often follow a structural pattern that moves against retail investor behavior. Short bursts of aggressive buying, followed by immediate stalling, suggest that the move may rely more on thin liquidity than on a sustainable trend. The sharp retreat from the peak has intensified uncertainty among traders who are still looking for clear direction.

Fragile Foundations Behind the Rebound

Bitcoin’s jump to the 94,000-dollar level instantly shifted social sentiment. Analysts say this atmosphere makes traders vulnerable to quick FOMO reactions. Yet the price retraced back to the 92,000-dollar area within minutes, revealing how fragile the rebound actually was.

“Markets move opposite to the small traders’ behavior,” Santiment said, adding that this dynamic became clear in the hours following the monthly high.

Experts explain that such short-lived spikes often appear in periods of weak market depth. Limited order book density allows small liquidity injections to move prices sharply. Once these artificial pushes fade, the trend loses momentum and reverses quickly.

Fed Uncertainty Tightens Market Conditions

The market’s attention is now centered on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve announcement. Futures markets signal an almost 88 percent probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut. However, several analysts warn that a vague or cautious outlook on the broader rate path could pressure Bitcoin in the short term.

The market is split between two scenarios. Some investors believe an easing cycle will boost risk appetite. Others argue the price has already overreacted to optimistic expectations and could face a correction.

Key near-term risks include:

• A more cautious Fed stance could trigger immediate selling pressure.

Manipulation Concerns Inject More Doubt

Some long-term BTC investors say the sudden price move lacked organic characteristics. The abrupt wave of heavy market buys, followed by complete stagnation, has fueled concerns about engineered price action. Large trades executed in a thin order book can push prices upward quickly, only to lose strength moments later. For some observers, this resembles a classic FOMO setup designed to unload positions at better levels.

All signs point to the Fed announcement as the key catalyst that will shape Bitcoin next major move. The market appears ready for intense volatility, and investor sentiment remains highly reactive during this uncertain phase.

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Liquidity Rebounds From Lows

In a brief analysis published on X, ARK Invest emphasized that liquidity is beginning to return, noting that this trend could act as the foundation for a broader market rebound. According to the firm, substantial capital inflows are expected to enter U.S. financial markets over the coming weeks.

The analysis points out that total liquidity in the U.S. markets reached a cycle low of 5.5 trillion dollars on October 30. Roughly 621 billion dollars had been withdrawn during the six-week government shutdown. With government operations resuming, around 70 billion dollars has already flowed back into the system. ARK Invest estimates that an additional 300 billion dollars may enter the market within the next five to six weeks, creating a favorable backdrop for risk-on sentiment.

Monetary Policy Turning Supportive

Another major theme in ARK Invest’s outlook is the potential shift in Federal Reserve policy. The firm notes that a rate cut is increasingly likely at the December meeting, with several key Fed officials—including New York Fed President John Williams, Christopher Waller, and Mary Daly—expressing openness to lowering rates. Markets are currently pricing in a 90 percent probability of a near-term cut.

Such a shift would mark a significant transition away from the strict tightening cycle the Fed has maintained over the past years, offering further support for equities and crypto assets.

QT Set to End, Bitcoin Forecast Still Bullish

The analysis also underscores the approaching end of the Fed’s quantitative tightening (QT) program on December 1. ARK Invest argues that the termination of QT will signal a renewed expansion in liquidity, reinforcing the trend already underway.

Earlier this year, the firm laid out its long-term projections for Bitcoin, estimating a target of 1.5 million dollars in its bullish 2030 scenario and 300,000 dollars in its bearish case.

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Instead, demand is being driven by institutions. For the first time ever, spot BTC ETFs recorded over $1 billion in inflows on two consecutive days.

Institutional Inflows Take the Lead

Bitwise’s Head of Research, André Dragosch, emphasized in a recent post that this latest rally is led by institutional capital. Google Trends data supports this, showing just an 8% increase in searches for “Bitcoin” compared to a 60% surge in November 2024.

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Analysts suggest that retail investors may believe they’ve already missed the opportunity to buy. As Lindsay Stamp commented, many see Bitcoin at $117K and assume it’s too late to enter the market.

Onchain Data Suggests Institutional Dominance

ETF data confirms this new narrative. According to Farside Investors, spot BTC ETFs saw a $2.72 billion inflow over the past five trading days. Analyst Willy Woo remains optimistic, claiming the rally has “plenty of legs left.”

With institutional actors leading the charge, the structure of the crypto market could be undergoing a fundamental shift — one where retail plays a smaller role than ever before.

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Technical analyst Rekt Capital stated, “Bitcoin’s downtrend is over,” and suggested that the next target could be $120,000 or higher. During this rally, $529 million in liquidations occurred—$465 million of which came from short positions, providing a strong signal for investors. 

Bitcoin futures volume surged by 45% to over $60 billion, while open interest climbed 7.4% to reach $79 billion. These figures indicate a bullish sentiment among investors.  Meanwhile, interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs is also surging. According to Farside Investors, there was a $10 billion net inflow on Wednesday alone, with total assets under management exceeding $50 billion, marking a new record. 

CLARITY Act and Fed Rate Cut Expectations Drive Market Sentiment 

The CLARITY Act, set to take effect on July 14, will provide clear regulatory frameworks for crypto assets in the U.S., aiming to create a secure environment for both retail and institutional investors. The U.S. has declared July 14–19 as Crypto Week, with several key legislative proposals on the agenda. 

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse posted on X: 

“Every Senator acknowledged that crypto is here to stay and deserves clear rules… That alone is a HUGE step toward the U.S. regaining lost ground.” 

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong also expressed optimism: 

“America is ready for crypto… The CLARITY Act must pass. We need POTUS to sign it into law.” 

At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump signed the “Big Beautiful Bill” last week and is now pushing for a 300 basis point Fed rate cut. If enacted, this would be the largest rate cut in U.S. history—three times the emergency 100 bps cut during COVID-19. 

Is Altcoin Season Underway? 

Ethereum (ETH) surged nearly 7% to approach $2,800, while XRP exceeded $2.41, its highest in seven weeks. Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Cardano (ADA) also posted gains of around 5%. Altcoin trading volumes increased between 60% and 100%. 

The Altcoin Season Index signals that recovery is underway, potentially setting the stage for a new alt season. Institutional adoption through projects like GameSquare and SharpLink Gaming is accelerating, creating a strong catalyst for major altcoins like Ethereum. 

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Trade Talks and Futures Fuel the Rally 

The rally was supported by positive sentiment surrounding ongoing trade talks between the U.S. and China in London. Expectations of reduced tariffs hold the potential to ease global trade tensions. Such developments boost capital flows into riskier assets, positively impacting assets like Bitcoin. A 90-day temporary trade agreement between the U.S. and China in May similarly drove BTC prices upward. 

On the other hand, markets are not anticipating a rate cut at the FOMC meeting on June 18. According to the FedWatch tool, the probability of interest rates remaining unchanged is 99.9%. Therefore, the likelihood of a rate cut is largely dismissed. Positive trade outcomes could offset inflation pressures from upcoming CPI data, potentially reducing concerns about tighter Fed policies impacting crypto markets. 

Futures Market Sees Strong Interest: Open Interest Hits Record High 

Bitcoin’s climb past $110,000 was driven by growing investor interest in the futures market. According to CoinGlass data, total open interest (OI) reached $77 billion on June 10, marking the highest level in the past two weeks. This increase highlights strong demand for long BTC positions. 

Over the past 24 hours, BTC open interest surged by 8%, signaling a shift toward leveraged trading. On the same day, the CME Bitcoin futures market hit a record with 151,915 BTC in open interest, valued at $16.6 billion. Derivatives trading volume also saw significant growth, rising 112% to $114.3 billion in the last 24 hours. This indicates strong market-wide support for the upward momentum. 

Liquidations of short BTC positions further reinforced the price increase. As of June 10, $195 million in short positions were liquidated, while long position liquidations amounted to only $9.3 million. These figures underscore the strong bullish momentum in the market. 

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IBIT Leads BTC ETF Inflows  

According to Farside Investors, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw $319 million in inflows on Wednesday, with IBIT leading at $223 million. Fidelity’s FBTC and Grayscale’s mini Bitcoin ETF (BTC) each contributed $35 million. Since mid-April, IBIT has dominated U.S. Bitcoin ETF inflows, setting the stage for a new peak as Bitcoin trades around $103,000.  

Long-Term BTC Investor Cost Basis Rises  

Glassnode reports that BTC Long-Term Holder (LTH) realized price has climbed to $45,340, indicating coins bought between $90,000-$100,000 are transitioning to long-term status. The rising cost basis highlights investor maturity. Analyst Miles Deutscher noted the current rally is driven by spot buying, with giants like BlackRock Bitcoin ETF contributing significantly.  

BTC is currently trading at $102,388, up 1.2%. However, daily trading volume dropped 10% to $44.5 billion. Analyst Ali Martinez suggests a potential pullback to $100,000, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signaling overbought conditions. Meanwhile, analyst Captan Faibik identified a rising triangle pattern on the hourly chart, suggesting BTC could test the $104,900 resistance. Breaking this level could lead to new all-time highs.  

BlackRock Bitcoin ETF’s leadership underscores how institutional demand is powering the rally. IBIT’s 628,000 BTC in assets reflects strong investor confidence. If BTC breaks the $104,900 resistance, it could reach an all-time high. Investors are closely monitoring these developments.  

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Surging Demand for $110K Strike Options

In a recent update shared on X, Deribit highlighted strong buying activity in call options at the $110,000 strike set to expire in June and July. Additionally, there has been notable interest in calendar spread strategies, involving long positions on $140,000 strike calls maturing in late September and short positions on $170,000 calls expiring by the end of the year.

Such flows suggest that investors are anticipating further gains for BTC in the weeks ahead. Call options give the holder the right to purchase the asset at a fixed price before a certain date, and are generally viewed as a bullish bet on the market.

Expiry Rollovers Show Continued Confidence

Deribit also noted a rollover of long positions from May expirations to July expirations, particularly around the $110,000 to $115,000 strike levels. This shift in positioning reflects an expectation of extended upside potential into the summer.

Is a BTC and ETH Breakout Brewing?

Bitcoin climbed above $104,000 on Thursday, marking a nearly 40% rebound from early April lows below $75,000. The rally has been fueled by positive sentiment around the U.S.-U.K. trade agreement and continued inflows into spot ETFs. Technical indicators continue to support a bullish outlook.

Meanwhile, Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) has jumped over 30% in just two days, reaching $2,411. The move is being interpreted as a bullish breakout on technical charts. On Deribit, there’s increasing demand for June expiry calls at the $2,400 level, as well as longer-dated call spreads targeting the $2,600–$2,800 range.

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The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the PCE inflation report on March 28, measuring the inflation rate in the prices US consumers pay for goods and services.

Singapore-based digital asset firm QCP Group stated that the PCE data could be a key catalyst for Bitcoin and other risk assets.

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In a Telegram post, QCP Group said:

“As we approach Friday’s quarterly expiry, with the highest open interest in topside strikes above $100K, we don’t expect major volatility driven by options positioning alone. But attention will turn to the PCE inflation print, which could become the next key catalyst.”

April Has Historically Been a Strong Month for Bitcoin!

Bitcoin has averaged a 12.9% return in April, making it one of the strongest-performing months historically. CoinGlass data shows that April is among Bitcoin’s best months in terms of price gains.

Can Bitcoin Reach $110,000 Amid Easing Inflation Concerns?

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts that Bitcoin could first reach $110,000 before pulling back to $76,500.

Juan Pellicer, senior analyst at IntoTheBlock, noted that Bitcoin is showing strong signs of recovery, driven by institutional demand and significant investments.

“BTC is showing signs of recovery, driven by growing institutional interest and significant investments from large players. Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s recent monetary easing could further boost liquidity, favoring a price increase in the near term.”

Pellicer emphasized that while market volatility remains a risk, the overall momentum suggests that Bitcoin is more likely to hit the $110,000 target before any potential pullback.

Bitcoin is entering April, a historically strong month for its price performance. If US inflation data meets expectations and the Fed maintains its loose monetary policy, Bitcoin could soar to $110,000. However, global economic uncertainties could also lead to a potential correction down to $76,500.

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