Market Shock Absorber: Bitcoin

While traditional stock markets were closed, BTC emerged as the only 24/7 liquid market. On February 28, the price dipped to $64,000; on March 2 to $66,000, March 7 to $68,000, March 12 to $69,400, and during the Saturday Harg Island attack, buyers appeared at $70,500. In other words, each wave of selling was met at a higher low than the previous one. This pattern shows that sellers are tiring while buyers are waiting in ambush.

The most striking point is Bitcoin’s performance compared to other assets over the same two-week period. Oil prices have risen more than 40% since the start of the conflict, the S&P 500 remained in a downtrend, gold prices fluctuated, and Asian stock markets recorded their worst week since March 2020. Bitcoin, however, absorbed all this turmoil faster and outperformed other assets.

Critical Squeeze: $74,000 Barrier

Technically, a rising base formed between $64,000 and $70,000. Each negative news triggered selling, but at higher levels than the previous one. During the March 12 tanker attack, the price held at $69,400 and during the Harg Island attack, it did not fall below $70,500. The $73,000–$74,000 range remains a ceiling that has rejected the price four times.

Low Levels:

• February 28 First Attack: $64,000

• March 2 Retaliation: $66,000

• March 7 Continuous Conflict: $68,000

• March 12 Tanker Attack: $69,400

Clearly, this narrowing triangle is likely to break in one direction.

Macro Context and Resilience

Trump stated that Iran’s energy infrastructure was not targeted; however, if the risk in the Strait of Hormuz continues, it will be reassessed. Iran continues to threaten retaliation on US-linked facilities. This conditional risk could lead to the largest supply disruption in history, according to the IEA.

Fortunately, the Bitcoin market has become leaner and more resilient after the massive liquidation wave in February. Weak hands have been eliminated; geopolitical shocks now fuel a stronger upward move rather than a destructive collapse.

Bitcoin is neither a fully safe haven nor a purely risky asset. When shocks arrive, it is the only traded asset that absorbs them faster than others, functioning as a 24/7 liquidity pool.

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The post How Bitcoin Performed During the Geopolitical Crisis appeared first on Coin Engineer.

The market remained below the critical resistance level of $3.09 trillion. If this level is not reclaimed, the market cap could fall further to $3.00 trillion. Failing to hold this support increases the potential for further losses. However, if the $3.09 trillion level is broken, the market value could rise to $3.16 trillion. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have put pressure on investors, maintaining uncertainty in market sentiment. 

Bitcoin Holds at $101,000 Support 

Bitcoin tested below $99,000 over the weekend due to the U.S.-Iran conflict. It quickly recovered to $101,102. If this level holds, Bitcoin could rise to $102,734, signaling potential recovery for the market. If it fails to stay above $100,000, the price could drop to $98,000. These critical levels represent significant risk points for investors. 

Additional Market Data 

In the last 24 hours, $875 million worth of liquidations occurred in the crypto market. This high liquidation volume indicates increased volatility and market risk. 

As Bitcoin tested below $99,000, major altcoins like Ethereum and Solana also experienced double-digit losses. Around 380,000 investors had to close their leveraged positions. Of these, $233 million were Bitcoin positions, and $175 million were Ethereum. A total of $304.03 million in positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours—$230.85 million in long and $73.18 million in short trades. The largest liquidations occurred in the BTC-USDT (OKX) pair at $4.06 million, ETH-USDT (Binance) at $2.96 million, and ETH-USDT (OKX) at $2.50 million. 

Geopolitical uncertainty is increasing market volatility and causing investors to act cautiously. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $101,850. 

THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE 

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This resistance continues to block Bitcoin’s attempts to climb back to $112,000. This stagnant movement is mainly due to investors remaining cautious amid geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties. Particularly, rising tensions in the Middle East, conflicts between Israel and Iran, and cyberattacks are undermining investor confidence. 

Iran-based cryptocurrency exchange Nobitex was attacked by a pro-Israel hacker group, resulting in a $81 million loss. This incident exposed the vulnerability of crypto assets during geopolitical cyber conflicts. Bitcoin is often promoted as “digital gold,” but during times of crisis, it underperforms compared to traditional safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasury bonds. While gold approached all-time highs this week, BTC lost 3.6% in value just last week. 

Fed Decision and Inflation Concerns Weigh on Bitcoin 

The U.S. Federal Reserve kept its policy interest rate steady at 4.25–4.50% during its June 18 meeting. However, its ongoing hawkish stance against inflation increased pressure on risk assets. Due to a core PCE inflation rate of 2.8% and potential trade policies from Trump, the Fed reduced expectations for rate cuts. 

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the FOMC now projects only two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025, down from four previously. Markets are currently pricing in just a 58.4% chance of a rate cut in September. 

This scenario strengthens the U.S. dollar while putting further pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. Diminishing liquidity expectations reduce demand for digital assets. According to QCP Capital’s June 18 report, the Fed is likely to make only one rate cut, limiting Bitcoin’s upward momentum. 

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Positive Signals, But No Market Impact Yet

Following two days of high-level negotiations, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer described the talks as productive and constructive. Bessent confirmed that even President Trump had been fully briefed on the progress, underscoring the White House’s close involvement.

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Greer noted that the agreement came faster than expected, suggesting that the differences between the two nations may not have been as significant as previously thought. Still, the real impact of this agreement will become clearer with tomorrow’s expected full briefing, where deal specifics are to be unveiled.

Bitcoin Holds Below 104,766$ Resistance

In crypto markets, all eyes are on Bitcoin (BTC). Despite the positive geopolitical backdrop, Bitcoin has failed to break above the 104,766$ resistance level in the daily chart.

Should BTC manage to push past this ceiling, the potential for a new All-Time High (ATH) becomes plausible. Conversely, rejection at this level could lead to a downward move toward the 99,172$ support zone, which has historically acted as a key level of demand.

While geopolitical developments often stir market volatility, the muted reaction from Bitcoin suggests that traders are waiting for more clarity. The details expected in tomorrow’s announcement could serve as a catalyst for a significant move — either a breakout or a retracement — in the crypto space.

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Bitcoin Technical Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) has gained 0.60% in the last 24 hours, reaching $87,940. After breaking the $86,600 resistance, it made a re-test and continued its upward movement. However, for the uptrend to continue, Bitcoin needs to close above $88,500. This level has been tested multiple times, but a strong breakout has yet to occur. If $88,500 is surpassed, Bitcoin could target $91,000, followed by $92,500 – $95,000 levels.

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On the downside, if $86,600 support is lost, Bitcoin may drop first to $85,000, and then to the $83,500 – $82,000 range.

Ethereum Technical Analysis

Ethereum (ETH) bounced from the $2,037 – $1,927 support range and tested the $2,108 resistance but faced rejection. It has now retraced back to the support zone. If $2,108 is broken, Ethereum could see a rapid move toward $2,200 – $2,300.

On the other hand, if $1,927 support fails, Ethereum may decline to $1,850, and eventually $1,800.

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