What Bitcoin RSI Data Is Signaling

RSI is a momentum indicator that measures whether an asset trades in overbought or oversold territory. Readings below 30 typically indicate oversold conditions and increase the probability of a short- to medium-term price reaction. Levels above 70 signal overbought conditions and elevated pullback risk.

TradingView data shows Bitcoin’s weekly RSI currently sits just below 37. The last time RSI reached similar levels was December 2022, when Bitcoin formed a bear market bottom near $16,500. Over the following two and a half years, BTC rallied roughly 660%, reaching a new all-time high in October. The broader weekly trend remains firmly intact.

The Four-Year Cycle Debate Resurfaces

Julien Bittel strongly rejects the idea that Bitcoin strictly follows a four-year halving-driven cycle. He argues that historical cycles aligned more closely with public debt refinancing schedules and global liquidity conditions than with halving events themselves. Post-COVID fiscal expansion pushed this cycle roughly one year forward.

According to Bittel, when financial conditions, business cycles, and liquidity dynamics are analyzed together, the probability favors a bull market extending well into 2026. This framework helps explain why rising volatility has not yet invalidated the broader bullish structure.

Bittel further emphasizes that the traditional four-year cycle no longer applies. He attributes this shift to the extension of government debt maturities and the monetization of interest expenses that now exceed GDP growth. This structural change increases the likelihood of a prolonged cycle rather than a premature market peak.

What Macro Analysts Are Saying

Macroeconomic analysts at Milk Road support this interpretation. They argue that short-term oversold signals should never be viewed in isolation. Liquidity conditions and the stage of the business cycle remain the dominant drivers.

As long as capital flows continue to improve, these pullbacks tend to evolve into higher-price consolidation phases over time. The biggest mistake, they warn, is assuming every correction marks the beginning of a new bear market.

Short-Term Price Outlook

BTC has declined 4.2% over the past seven days and is trading near $86,600 at the time of writing. While near-term momentum remains pressured, on-chain and macro indicators suggest the move fits within a broader bullish cycle. Risk appetite appears temporarily reduced rather than structurally broken.

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Bitcoin surged to $109,400 on Sunday. However, with declining market volume, it pulled back by 1.5%. The price dropped to $108,000, remaining below the critical resistance level of $110,000. The RSI indicator signaled overbought market conditions, creating pressure at the $110,000 level. 

Although the price action technically maintains bullish consolidation, it showed that short-term upside potential is limited. BTC hit a record $106,100 on May 20 and has remained structurally strong by closing above this level. Coingecko data confirmed five consecutive daily closes above it. 

Decline in Whale Transactions Puts Pressure on Bitcoin 

Decreased liquidity and trading volume over the weekend slowed Bitcoin’s upward momentum. The 24-hour trading volume fell to $26 billion—down 70% from Thursday’s $75 billion peak. Whale trading volume dropped by 57.2% from $112.6 billion to $48.15 billion within two days. 

This decline coincided with Bitcoin’s failure to break the $110,000 resistance, indicating selling pressure from whales. As whale volume fell below the 30-day moving average, BTC risks retesting the $106,000–$107,000 support levels. 

Technical Analysis: Momentum Weakens 

Bitcoin’s short-term outlook remains cautiously constructive. The price is holding above $106,000, now acting as strong support following last week’s rejection around $112,000. However, technical indicators suggest weakening momentum. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell from 74 to 63.39, showing the market is no longer overheated but buying pressure has eased. As a result, investors are expecting a sideways consolidation rather than a breakout.  Also, the MACD histogram is flattening, with the MACD line just above the signal line. This suggests bullish momentum is fading, though a bearish reversal hasn’t occurred yet. A renewed bullish move could emerge, but if weakness continues, it may shift into a bearish divergence. 

Another key metric is BTC holding above its 5-day SMA ($107,856) and 13-day SMA ($106,216). Maintaining these levels highlights the critical importance of the $106,000 support zone. Otherwise, a drop to the $104,000–$105,000 range becomes more likely. Volume remains at 14.03K BTC, and investors are waiting for stronger buy signals for Bitcoin to surpass $110,000. 

***NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE***

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