According to Santiment, if large investors sell while retail buys, the market correction is not yet complete.

Iran Sell-Off Wave and Whale Strategy

During last week’s Iran-driven sell-off, whales aggressively accumulated Bitcoin. When the price reached $74,000, the same wallets started taking profits. Retail investors, however, bought around $70,000 hoping for a recovery. Santiment data shows that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC accumulated heavily between February 23 and March 3, then began selling at $74,000. This is regarded as a classic signal of the whale-retail divergence.

The accumulation by 10–10,000 BTC wallets triggered the $74,000 rally, while their distribution caused the current decline. This group is currently the most reliable signal source for short-term price direction.

Why is Bitcoin Dropping?

The current retracement in the market is driven by profit-taking from large wallets (whales) and retail investors buying as a contrarian indicator, deepening the supply-demand imbalance. The Fear & Greed Index falling to 12 indicates investor psychology trapped in “extreme fear.”

Bitcoin Supply and Selling Pressure

Glassnode data clarifies the situation further. About 43% of Bitcoin supply is still at a loss, and every rally is met with selling from investors aiming to break even. The $74,000 surge also hit a supply wall; whales took profits, while retail investors waited for the price to stabilize. When Bitcoin reached its local top, transactions over $1 million spiked significantly. Whale activity during rallies signals profit-taking; during dips, it indicates accumulation.

Even though the market shows strong weekly movement, monthly progress remains limited. Bitcoin reached $60,000 on February 6, $74,000 on March 5, and now hovers around $68,000, the level from about three weeks ago. Each rally is met with position closing, and each drop with recovery attempts, keeping net movement almost zero.

Market Crossroads

This dynamic can resolve in two ways. Either selling pressure exhausts, excess supply is absorbed, and Bitcoin rises above $74,000. Or buying pressure fades, retail capital is depleted, and the $60,000 floor is truly tested. Weekly whale movements indicate that major investors are leaning toward the second scenario.

Is a $60,000 Test Coming?

Bitcoin’s direction will be shaped by the whale-retail conflict and market sentiment. Volatility is high, prices are testing psychological levels, and the risk-reward balance for investors is delicate. If selling pressure persists, the drop could accelerate; if buying pressure strengthens, recovery could be more sustainable.

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Supply Milestone and Miner Data

According to Clark Moody, 19,996,979 BTC have been mined so far—leaving just 3,000 BTC to reach the 20 million mark. At the current mining rate, the 20 millionth coin is expected within about seven days. The total supply is projected to reach 99% by January 2035.

Halving events have slowed down issuance. Daily mining yields around 450 BTC, keeping inflation below 1%. Some miners are already watching transaction fees closely; future revenue will depend largely on them. The final Bitcoin is expected around 2105, while fractional BTC mining will continue until roughly 2140.

Limited Supply and Deflationary Structure

Bitcoin’s most defining feature is its limited supply, which sets it apart from other currencies. Traditional money can be printed endlessly; Bitcoin cannot. Its protocol enforces a rigid monetary policy.

This scarcity gives Bitcoin a unique position in the financial world. Satoshi Nakamoto deliberately capped total supply at 21 million. This ensures Bitcoin’s total coins never exceed that limit, creating a naturally deflationary structure similar to the scarcity of precious metals. Investors see it as a strong hedge against inflation, entirely immune to central bank or government interference.

Circulating Bitcoin and Supply Reality

To understand circulating Bitcoin, we must consider mining mechanisms. Since 2009, mining history—including halving events, reward mechanisms, and technological developments—has shaped supply. Economic fluctuations and investor interest also directly impact circulation.

Lost coins further tighten effective supply. Chainalysis estimates that 2–4 million BTC are gone forever, from forgotten wallet keys to damaged hard drives. One famous 2013 example: a miner threw away a disk with 8,000 BTC, now worth around $500 million. These accidental losses deepen Bitcoin’s scarcity story.

10-Minute Block Production and Monetary Policy

The Bitcoin network is designed to produce a new block roughly every 10 minutes. Miners earn new BTC as rewards. Coins enter circulation gradually, keeping inflation balanced.

The 10-minute interval ensures both transaction verification and network security. Blockchain has remained reliable and efficient for years, forming the backbone of Bitcoin’s monetary policy and supporting its scarcity narrative.

Market Reactions and Risk Factors

Falling U.S. stocks and rising oil prices pushed Bitcoin below $67,000. Markets remain uncertain, with some trading desks almost idle. Risk-aversion is increasing, and investors are turning to the dollar.

Crypto stocks like Coinbase and Galaxy Digital fell about 2%. The U.S. dollar index crossed 99, and Treasury yields approached 4.1%. Oil holds above $74 per barrel, while gold stays near $5,300 per ounce and silver dropped around 4% to $85.

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According to SoSoValue data, inflows were heavily concentrated midweek. Wednesday alone saw approximately $844 million in net inflows, the strongest single-day demand recorded so far for spot Bitcoin ETF. Tuesday followed closely with $754 million in inflows. Toward the end of the week, sentiment softened. Friday registered roughly $395 million in outflows. Still, that pullback did little to offset the scale of midweek accumulation.

During the same period, Bitcoin traded around the $95,145 level. ETF absorption, however, pointed to a signal that extended beyond short-term price action.

Supply Tightens as Risk Dynamics Shift

Vincent Liu, Chief Investment Officer at Kronos Research, said recent ETF inflows indicate that long-term investors are returning after a period of caution. According to Liu, demand flowing through regulated vehicles is gradually tightening effective supply and altering the market’s risk balance.

On-chain indicators reinforce this view. Large holders—commonly referred to as whales—have significantly reduced net selling compared with late December. This easing has weakened a key source of distribution pressure that weighed on prices in recent months. Combined with steady ETF buying, the market is beginning to feel structurally tighter, even as volatility remains elevated.

That said, the picture is still fragile. Liu cautioned that current conditions should not yet be interpreted as a confirmed trend reversal. While renewed inflows and declining whale sales suggest the formation of more durable institutional demand, the shift remains in its early stages.

Related: Mixed Signals in Spot ETFs as Bitcoin Turns Negative

Ether ETF Demand Loses Momentum

While Bitcoin ETFs posted a strong showing, Ether ETFs experienced a more uneven week. Early sessions reflected solid demand, with roughly $290 million in net inflows on Tuesday and about $215 million on Wednesday. Momentum faded toward the end of the week, however, culminating in approximately $180 million in net outflows on Friday.

As a result, Ether ETFs closed the week with net inflows of around $479 million. ETH hovered near $3,314, but investor interest appeared notably less consistent than on the Bitcoin side.

Why It Matters

Capital entering through ETF channels reshapes market structure rather than merely driving short-term price moves. Persistent buying allows funds to absorb sell pressure during pullbacks, making sharp drawdowns easier to digest. This mechanism, however, only translates into a meaningful trend if inflows remain consistent over time.

Too Early to Call a Sustained Rally

According to Bitcoin macro intelligence newsletter Ecoinometrics, recent spikes in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have tended to trigger short-lived price jumps rather than sustained uptrends. When inflows slow, gains are often retraced. The publication argues that several consecutive weeks of strong ETF demand are required to shift the broader trend.

With cumulative ETF flows still deeply negative, isolated positive days may help stabilize prices but are unlikely to support a durable rally on their own. For now, the market offers no clear directional signal. Institutional capital may be returning, yet whether this marks a lasting shift will depend on the pace and consistency of ETF flows in the weeks ahead.

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Institutional Players Tighten Control Over Bitcoin Supply

Bitcoin ownership has become increasingly concentrated among institutions, custodians, and large holders in 2025. According to Glassnode, major entities now control approximately 5.94 million BTC. This figure represents close to 30 percent of the circulating Bitcoin supply. As a result, the influence of retail investors over available supply continues to decline.

Moreover, this concentration reflects Bitcoin’s transition into a maturing institutional asset. Large holders tend to accumulate with long-term strategies, which reduces liquid supply in the market. Consequently, price movements are increasingly shaped by institutional portfolio decisions rather than short-term retail flows. This shift also changes volatility dynamics across market cycles.

Why does it matter?

As Bitcoin supply concentrates in institutional hands, price discovery becomes more sensitive to corporate and fund-level decisions. This alters risk behavior and strengthens Bitcoin’s connection to traditional financial structures.

ETFs, Corporations, and Governments Accumulate BTC

Publicly listed companies currently hold around 1.07 million BTC. Strategy remains the dominant corporate holder with 660,624 BTC, far ahead of its peers. MARA Holdings follows with 53,250 BTC, while Twenty One Capital holds 43,514 BTC. Japan-based Metaplanet controls 30,823 BTC, closely followed by Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company and Bullish.

At the same time, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively manage approximately 1.31 million BTC. Government wallets also play a notable role, holding an estimated 620,000 BTC. However, cryptocurrency exchanges remain the single largest category. Glassnode data shows exchanges holding roughly 2.94 million BTC, underscoring their central role in market liquidity.

Major Bitcoin holder categories

• Public companies with Bitcoin treasuries

• US spot Bitcoin ETFs

• Government-controlled wallets

• Centralized cryptocurrency exchanges

Price Pressure Persists Despite Institutional Confidence

Despite growing institutional accumulation, Bitcoin’s price action still reflects broader macro conditions. This week, BTC briefly dipped below the 90,000 dollar level amid weakness in the technology sector and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. This movement highlights Bitcoin’s continued correlation with risk assets.

Nevertheless, institutional conviction remains intact. Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood, purchased 13,700 shares of its own Bitcoin ETF, ARKB, during the pullback. The acquisition, valued at roughly 417,000 dollars, signals sustained confidence. Meanwhile, Strategy has maintained its position in the Nasdaq 100 index for a full year, even as debate continues around the long-term sustainability of crypto treasury models.

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Diversity and Global BTC Adoption

The list of Bitcoin treasury companies includes not only mining operations but also firms from the technology, finance, and retail sectors. For instance, mining companies like MARA and Riot have been producing and holding Bitcoin as a balance sheet reserve for years, while tech giants like Tesla and Block, and financial institutions like Coinbase, have also made strategic BTC acquisitions. Retail companies like GameStop also made the list, showing that adoption is increasing across diverse sectors.

Global spread is also noteworthy. The list includes companies from the USA, Japan, Canada, Germany, and Türkiye. Türkiye’s Net Holding ranks 75th and is known to have added Bitcoin to its balance sheet since 2024. This demonstrates that Bitcoin is being adopted as a strategic reserve by corporate investors worldwide, not just in a specific region.

Leaders, History, and Corporate Strategy

MicroStrategy (formerly Strategy) tops the list. The company started adding Bitcoin to its balance sheet in 2020 and today stands significantly apart from others with approximately 650,000 BTC. This is the clearest example of an aggressive treasury strategy. While Tesla made a major impact on the corporate market with its $1.5 billion BTC purchase and short-term sales in 2021, Marathon Digital and other miners are also among the leaders with long-term BTC accumulation.

Experts state that public companies viewing Bitcoin as a strategic reserve will ensure long-term stability in the market. The fact that 5% of the supply is locked in public company vaults limits liquidity while increasing institutional trust. Furthermore, this situation shows that Bitcoin is not just a speculative asset but a serious tool in financial planning.

New additions in 2025 are also expanding the list. Hyperscale Data, Inc. climbed to the upper ranks with approximately 382 BTC. These developments indicate that corporate investor adoption of Bitcoin will continue, and its strategic importance in the markets will grow.

In conclusion, public Bitcoin treasury companies have become major actors shaping market dynamics. Leaders like MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Marathon Digital set an example for other companies, while the entry of firms from diverse sectors shows that Bitcoin is becoming a standard tool in the corporate investment world.

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IBIT Breaks Records in Just 341 Days!

Since its launch, IBIT has been flooded with intense demand from institutional investors. BlackRock’s ETF reached a size of 70 billion dollars in just 341 days, making it one of the fastest-growing ETFs in history. According to current data, IBIT’s net assets are now hovering around 70.7 billion dollars.

This growth is not seen merely as a result of Bitcoin’s price movements. At the same time, it clearly shows the rising interest of banks, funds, family offices, and institutional investors in BTC.

You may also be interested in this article: The Altcoins with the Highest Buybacks in the Last 30 Days!

Bitcoin ETF Becomes the Company’s Largest Revenue Source!

São Paulo hosted a Blockchain Conference where Brazil’s Business Development Director Cristiano Castro made the following statement:

We must acknowledge that Bitcoin ETFs have become the top revenue generator within the company. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF allocations are approaching 100 billion dollars. Even for a giant managing a total of 13.4 trillion dollars, this is an unexpected surprise. “We were optimistic during the launch, but we did not expect to reach this scale,” he added.

BlackRock Holds Over 3% of the Total Bitcoin Supply

IBIT — BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF — has grown unexpectedly fast thanks to the company’s global distribution power and the strong confidence of institutional investors. The fund currently holds more than 3% of the total Bitcoin supply. Additionally, its support from international ETPs and other BTC-linked BlackRock products makes it stand out even more.

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The post BlackRock Keeps the Wheel Turning with Bitcoin ETF Gains! appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Matthew Hougan, CIO of Bitwise Asset Management, offered a similar perspective. Hougan stated that it is still too early to declare the cycle over without positive returns by 2026. However, he believes the cycle will eventually end in the long term. Historically, BTC price peaks occurred in 2013, 2017, and 2021 after halving events. Analysts expect a similar scenario in 2025. 

Pierre Rochard, CEO of Bitcoin Bond Company, suggested the four-year cycles might have ended. Rochard pointed out that 95% of Bitcoin’s supply has already been mined. He also noted that the impact of halvings on trading volume has diminished. Demand now mainly comes from retail investors, wealth management platforms adding ETPs, and corporate treasuries. 

Macroeconomics and Institutional Capital Impact 

Martin Burgherr, Head of Client Coverage at Sygnum Bank, said the halving cycle remains an important reference. However, macroeconomic conditions, institutional capital flows, regulatory developments, and ETF adoption have become equally influential on the market. Burgherr emphasized that the four-year framework is no longer the sole determinant. 

In contrast, crypto analyst CRYPTOBIRB rejected claims that the four-year cycle has ended. He stated that ETFs increase market correlation, thus reinforcing this cycle. He also reminded that halving cycles are mathematically programmed and unchangeable. 

Seamus Rocca, CEO of Xapo Bank, similarly affirmed that the cycles still hold validity. Rocca said that despite institutional presence, Bitcoin’s cyclical nature continues. The debate is expected to become clearer with the anticipated price movements in 2025. 

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From only one week ago, when barely over 45% of the BTC supply had been inactive for at least six months, the data—shown in Glassnode’s Hodl Wave chart—showcases a startling increase. Rising to 74% suggests long-term investors clinging to their Bitcoin, maybe in hope of further price increases.

The accumulated and holding of Bitcoin by long-term holders reduces the availability for trading. Should demand increase while the easily available supply declines, this shortage might drive price increases.

Still, the image is not absolutely good. According onchain analyst James Check revealed on Aug. 19, over 80% of Bitcoin held by short-term investors—those who have retained the currency for fewer than 155 days—is now underwater, meaning these buyers paid more than the going market price. This brings to me past cycles when panic selling by short-term holders led to further market disasters.

The overall market attitude is still cautious given the Bitcoin concern and greed index score of 28, which suggests anxiety. Not seen since December 2022 this degree of worry. Reflecting the ongoing volatility in the market, Bitcoin’s price fell from temporarily hitting $60,000 over the weekend to $58,900 at the time of writing.

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