Historic Increase in Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply  

On-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant reported that long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) have increased their supply by 800,000 BTC over the last 30 days. This marks the largest recorded increase in Bitcoin history. LTH refers to investors who hold their BTC for at least six months. This surge indicates high confidence in the market.  

According to CryptoQuant data, a 750,000 BTC increase has only happened six times. The most recent two occurrences were in July 2021 and September 2024—both just before significant price surges.  

Analyst Darkfost stated that this is a signal that should not be ignored. Most coins were purchased in the $95,000–$107,000 range, which creates a strong support level for the price.  

“This is definitely a strong signal that should be included in any strategy.”  

Critical Support for Bitcoin: $93,000 Level  

Short-term holders (STH), who typically hold BTC for less than six months, have a cost basis just below $100,000. Glassnode emphasized that the $93,000–$98,000 range is a critical support zone. According to analysts, if BTC remains within this range, the bullish market structure will be maintained. However, if this level is broken, selling pressure could increase. Following the recent pullback, the price dropped to as low as $98,000. Despite this, the strong position of long-term holders shows the market remains resilient.  

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This expectation led to a 1.2% loss in Bitcoin and the overall crypto market. The total crypto market cap dropped approximately 1.23% to $3.29 trillion. Although the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) announced in May were below expectations, the Fed maintains a cautious stance. For example, Ether fell 2.8% to $2,506.90, XRP declined 2.7% to $2.13. Cardano and Solana dropped 3–4%, Polygon decreased by 2.3%. Among meme tokens, Dogecoin lost over 3%, and $TRUMP declined more than 4%. 

Geopolitical factors also increase volatility. The Israel–Iran tension pushed oil prices up. This situation brings inflation expectations back on the agenda, pressuring risk assets. 

In Bitcoin, downside supports stand at $108,000 and critical resistance is at $112,000. Analysts, especially based on CME FedWatch data, do not expect any change in interest rates. 

Jerome Powell to Speak Today 

Despite political pressure from Donald Trump, the FOMC meeting will most likely conclude without an interest rate change. Inflation rose slightly from 2.3% to 2.4% in May. This limited increase, combined with a strong labor market, strengthens the likelihood that the Fed will continue its “wait and see” policy. On the other hand, rising oil prices and Israel–Iran tension indicate that inflationary pressures may increase. Jerome Powell is expected to highlight these global risks in his speech. 

Additionally, stablecoin regulation was approved in the US Senate; however, its impact has not yet eased the market in the short term. The market remains in a waiting pattern. 

Bitcoin miners are also noteworthy during this period. While coping with drought and energy costs, they are known to be preparing for new demand. The US-China trade war and Trump tariffs are causing structural changes in the mining hardware supply chain. However, detailed data has not yet been updated. Institutions are closely monitoring a possible increase in the M2 money supply. 

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Bitcoin Technical Analysis

One of the standout developments during this decline was Bitcoin losing the $86,641 support. After breaking this critical level, Bitcoin performed a retest move, then dropped towards the next support level—the bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG) area. Bitcoin has now completely filled this FVG zone and appears to have found temporary support. As of today, Bitcoin has recovered by 4%, climbing back to around $81,000.

However, uncertainty remains high. The most critical support level for Bitcoin lies within the lower bullish FVG zone. Specifically, the $73,468 support is seen as a crucial threshold for the coming days. Previously, breaking above this zone had triggered a rally that took Bitcoin all the way to $100,000. As a result, this area will be closely watched by market participants.

If Bitcoin loses the $73,468 level, the next potential downside target could be around $65,000. This zone acted as a significant support level before the last major rally and could once again attract buyers. However, a drop to these levels could also trigger another wave of selling pressure in the market.

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Ethereum Update

Alongside Bitcoin’s sharp movements, Ethereum (ETH) also suffered significant losses. As highlighted in previous analyses, losing the $2,037 – $1,927 support range pushed the price down to $1,700. Currently, Ethereum is trading around $1,921, trying to reclaim the $1,927 support.

A successful reclaim of this support level could lead Ethereum back above $2,000 in the short term. The $2,108 resistance level is the next key hurdle. If Ethereum breaks above this resistance, it may set its sights on $2,500 once again.

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