The first response was not panic selling. It was hesitation.

This distinction matters. Because when macro risk rises but price does not break, it reveals something deeper about market positioning.

Initial Price Reaction After Tariff Announcement

The Trump administration moved forward with the tariff decision using an alternative legal framework after its previous emergency economic authority was limited by the Supreme Court of the United States. The new tariffs were implemented under the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and the Trade Act of 1974. This structure places certain limitations on scope and duration.

The market understood that detail quickly. Bitcoin continued to trade within the $68,000 range following the announcement. There was no sharp downside break. At the same time, no aggressive upside expansion appeared either. Price compressed and held its equilibrium zone.

Sometimes, this kind of non-reaction reflects weakness. Other times, it suggests the market was already positioned defensively.

Recent price behavior shows that $68,000 has become a short-term balance level. The area has functioned as both support and stabilization over recent sessions.

The key observation is simple: macro pressure increased, but this level held.

In previous macro shocks, Bitcoin reacted much faster. That reflex is missing now. This opens two possibilities. Positioning may already be lighter. Or participants may be waiting for clearer signals before committing capital.

For now, direction remains unresolved. Ethereum reflected a similar structure. Price held near $1,977 without triggering a cascade of liquidations. This suggests excessive leverage may have already been reduced in recent weeks.

The broader altcoin market also remained relatively stable. The Total3 index, which tracks crypto market capitalization excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, declined less than 1%. Total valuation held near $713 billion.

That restraint matters.

Because historically, altcoins showed much greater fragility during macro-driven risk events. This time, selling pressure remained limited. The market appears cautious, not broken.

Macro Risk Is Rising, But Panic Is Absent

Tariffs often trigger cascading macro effects. Inflation expectations shift. Currency strength adjusts. Liquidity assumptions change. Risk assets usually respond quickly.

But that pattern has not fully emerged here.

Derivatives data shows declining trading volume across several platforms. Open interest remains largely flat. Traders are not aggressively expanding exposure.

The market is watching. Not reacting.

This phase often precedes larger directional moves. Quiet periods rarely last forever.

Critical Level Holds, But Balance May Not Last

The $68,000 region continues to serve as a key technical zone. Its stability reflects a market that has not yet lost structural balance.

However, equilibrium zones rarely persist indefinitely. Price typically resolves in one direction or the other. Extended sideways compression tends to precede expansion.

Especially when macro uncertainty remains elevated.

Market Data Signals Ongoing Repositioning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin continues trading between $67,800 and $68,200. Volatility remained subdued during both Asian and European sessions. Funding rates across derivatives markets hovered near neutral.

This pattern reflects consolidation, not resolution. The next decisive move will likely define the medium-term trend.

Technical Structure Highlights Key Resistance at $72,000

After rebounding from $60,000, BTC attempted to reclaim the $72,000 level but failed to hold above it. Price retraced toward the $65,000 area. Despite the pullback, Bitcoin continues to hold its intermediate support zone.

However, repeated tests of support can weaken structural integrity over time.

The $72,000 level now stands as the key resistance barrier. A confirmed break and sustained hold above that region could reduce selling pressure significantly. Technical projections suggest that such a breakout may open a path toward the $86,700–$89,950 range.

Until then, broader trend uncertainty remains intact.

Market Holds Structural Support Despite Tariff Shock

The fact that Bitcoin remained near $68,000 following the tariff announcement signals underlying structural stability. Despite rising macroeconomic pressure, price has not entered disorderly decline.

Liquidity conditions and macroeconomic developments will likely determine the next directional phase.

For now, the market remains in transition. And these transition phases often prove decisive.

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The post Bitcoin Holds $68K After Trump’s 15% Tariff Move appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Prediction markets like Kalshi indicate declining bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut while wagers on unchanged rates are increasing. Currently, 68% of investors expect a 25-basis-point cut in September, though this share is decreasing. Conversely, 34% predict no change in Fed rates. This trend adds uncertainty to the markets. 

CME FedWatch shows a 79% chance for a 25-basis-point cut in September. Down from 99%, investors now expect two rate cuts this year instead of three. This shift encourages more cautious market behavior and delays investment decisions. 

Investors Await PCE Data While Bitcoin Holds Support 

Crypto investors closely monitor the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE data. In June, U.S. PCE inflation rose 2.6% year-over-year, exceeding May’s upwardly revised 2.4% estimate. These figures will be crucial for the Fed’s September decisions, with results scheduled for August 29. 

Bitcoin finds support near $112,000, and analysts suggest buying on dips. Michael van de Poppe notes that BTC follows classical price movements. He recommends accumulating if prices fall below $110,000. Rekt Capital recalls Bitcoin fell 29% in 2017 and 25% in 2021. Over the last 24 hours, BTC dropped 0.31% to $112,892. Trading volume fell 10%, signaling reduced investor interest. 

This uncertainty and volatility affect global markets and encourage cautious investor behavior. All eyes remain on the August 29 PCE release. Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech and rising U.S. 10-year Treasury yields, alongside the DXY dollar index hitting 98.34, continue to influence market dynamics. 

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The sharp decline over the past two days has slowed, giving the market a temporary breather. This pause has provided cryptocurrencies a chance to regain momentum. However, a break below support could trigger another pullback toward $3.81 trillion. Investors are closely monitoring potential moves within this range. 

In the altcoin sector, a different picture emerged. According to Binance data, sharp movements were recorded. The biggest losers included SKALE (SKL), dropping 23.43%, followed by Juventus Fan Token (JUV) with a 12.96% loss, and EigenLayer (EIGEN) falling 9.37%. Syntropy (SXT) also fell 9.03%, while Arbitrum (ARB) declined 8.51%, and AS Roma Fan Token (ASR) dropped 8.24%. 

On the other hand, the top gainers were led by Measurable Data Token (MDT), soaring 47.06%. Alpine F1 Team Fan Token (ALPINE) followed with a strong 42.19% rise. Additionally, LATAM Airlines (LA) gained 28.34% and Porto Fan Token (PORTO) climbed 18.62%. 

Meanwhile, the industry saw significant developments. Gemini submitted an S-1 filing for an IPO on Nasdaq under the ticker GEMI, planned for 2025. Giants like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Citi are leading the process. At the same time, the U.S. Treasury’s OFAC sanctioned the ruble-pegged stablecoin A7A5 and its developer A7 LLC, targeting Russia’s attempts to bypass financial restrictions through crypto. 

Bitcoin Price at $117,500 Support 

Bitcoin is currently trading at $117,547. The $117,261 support line is a critical threshold. As long as this level holds, BTC maintains strong bullish momentum. 

The RSI indicator is in the positive zone, signaling buyer dominance. This opens the possibility of Bitcoin retesting $120,000. However, if selling pressure rises, the price could fall below $117,261. In such a scenario, losses toward $115,000 may accelerate. 

Ultimately, the market’s direction depends on whether key support levels hold. In the short term, these price moves will directly shape investor strategies. 

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Strong Connection Between S&P 500 and Bitcoin 

The S&P 500 has consistently shown positive returns in July over the past decade. The index averages around 2.3% gains, with notable increases in July 2023 and 2024. Despite macroeconomic fluctuations in the 1970s and 1980s, recent data confirms July as a strong month for stocks. 

Every massive Bull Market always started in summer.

This indicator has never missed, and now it shows $BTC hitting $215K in July.

Altseason is also coming, but only for the RIGHT lowcaps.

Here’s why the market is about to pump + 10 alts to buy today pic.twitter.com/d6SZceH8tv

— 0xNobler (@CryptoNobler) June 24, 2025

The increasing correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 suggests similar seasonal rallies may occur in the crypto market. Analyst Crypto Fella states Bitcoin is ready to reach new highs by following the movements of the S&P 500. This points to a growing relationship between traditional financial markets and digital assets. 

July Signals a Rally and Altcoin Season for Bitcoin 

On-chain data and market sentiment indicate Bitcoin could gain strong momentum during summer. Stablecoin movements suggest the Bitcoin rally is far from over. Analyst 0xNobler believes the market has moved past the recent shakeout phase and entered a new uptrend. 

There hasn't been a red July in the past decade pic.twitter.com/4eQg9zN7oZ

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 30, 2025

With these developments, investors signal an altcoin season may begin once the “right lows” are reached. Successful investors closely monitor market psychology, regulations, and technological progress to capitalize on cyclical opportunities. 

However, past performance does not guarantee future results. Still, a strong upward trend is expected in both stock and crypto markets in July. Investors should prepare for a selective altcoin rally following the rise led by Bitcoin (BTC). 

In conclusion, investors should always conduct thorough research and balance optimism with caution. Macroeconomic conditions and unexpected events can alter even the strongest trends. 

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Resistance Holding Firm

In the 4-hour timeframe, the previously mentioned 108,791 USD resistance level was tested. However, there was no convincing breakout, and Bitcoin faced rejection. This indicates a lack of strong bullish momentum for now.

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If Bitcoin manages to close above 108,791 USD, the next potential target range could be 111,000 – 112,000 USD. Until then, the market may remain range-bound.

Support Levels To Watch

On the downside, the nearest support zone lies between 106,622 and 105,725 USD. A drop below this range could lead to further corrective moves, while holding above might invite fresh buying interest.

A decisive move, preferably backed by volume, is needed to confirm a trend direction. Without that, price action may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range, frustrating both bulls and bears.

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106K Target Hit After Bullish Breakout

In our previous analysis, it was noted that if Bitcoin broke through the 102,961 – 101,984 USD resistance zone, a target of 105,000 USD would be next. The breakout occurred with strong buying pressure, pushing BTC up to the 106,000 USD level — surpassing the forecasted target and validating the setup.

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The current focus shifts to the next resistance range between 106,622 and 105,725 USD. If Bitcoin manages to break above this zone with volume support, the path toward 110,000 USD becomes highly likely. Sustained momentum will be critical to keep the uptrend intact.

Key Support Levels on the Downside

In the event of a pullback, the nearest strong support remains the 102,961 – 101,984 USD range. As long as BTC holds above this level, the bullish bias remains valid in the short term.

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This area represents more than just a technical ceiling—it’s a psychological battleground for short-term traders.

Key Levels to Watch for a Move Toward 105,000 Dollars

According to analysts, if this resistance is clearly broken with 4-hour candle closes, a move toward 105,000 dollars could be on the horizon. Such a breakout would indicate renewed buying pressure and potentially signal the start of a short-term bullish wave.

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However, if the resistance holds, a pullback toward the previous support zone—between 98,736 and 97,310 dollars—remains likely. Low trading volumes could increase the probability of this downward scenario.

What Should Traders Consider?

Traders are advised to proceed cautiously at current levels. Here are the critical takeaways:

• Monitor the 101,984 – 102,961 dollar range closely
• Watch for confirmation via 4-hour candle closes
• Keep an eye on 97,310 as the next potential support if a pullback occurs

Volatility remains high, and traders should stay alert for rapid price swings in either direction.

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Bitcoin surged to $109,400 on Sunday. However, with declining market volume, it pulled back by 1.5%. The price dropped to $108,000, remaining below the critical resistance level of $110,000. The RSI indicator signaled overbought market conditions, creating pressure at the $110,000 level. 

Although the price action technically maintains bullish consolidation, it showed that short-term upside potential is limited. BTC hit a record $106,100 on May 20 and has remained structurally strong by closing above this level. Coingecko data confirmed five consecutive daily closes above it. 

Decline in Whale Transactions Puts Pressure on Bitcoin 

Decreased liquidity and trading volume over the weekend slowed Bitcoin’s upward momentum. The 24-hour trading volume fell to $26 billion—down 70% from Thursday’s $75 billion peak. Whale trading volume dropped by 57.2% from $112.6 billion to $48.15 billion within two days. 

This decline coincided with Bitcoin’s failure to break the $110,000 resistance, indicating selling pressure from whales. As whale volume fell below the 30-day moving average, BTC risks retesting the $106,000–$107,000 support levels. 

Technical Analysis: Momentum Weakens 

Bitcoin’s short-term outlook remains cautiously constructive. The price is holding above $106,000, now acting as strong support following last week’s rejection around $112,000. However, technical indicators suggest weakening momentum. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell from 74 to 63.39, showing the market is no longer overheated but buying pressure has eased. As a result, investors are expecting a sideways consolidation rather than a breakout.  Also, the MACD histogram is flattening, with the MACD line just above the signal line. This suggests bullish momentum is fading, though a bearish reversal hasn’t occurred yet. A renewed bullish move could emerge, but if weakness continues, it may shift into a bearish divergence. 

Another key metric is BTC holding above its 5-day SMA ($107,856) and 13-day SMA ($106,216). Maintaining these levels highlights the critical importance of the $106,000 support zone. Otherwise, a drop to the $104,000–$105,000 range becomes more likely. Volume remains at 14.03K BTC, and investors are waiting for stronger buy signals for Bitcoin to surpass $110,000. 

***NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE***

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