However, the technical outlook remains at a critical juncture. According to analysts, if the $68,000 level fails to hold, the recent rise may remain only a short-term liquidity-driven move. On the other hand, a weekly close above this region would signal that bulls are regaining control.

Can Bitcoin Hold Above $68,000?

According to TradingView data, the BTC/USD pair was trading around $68,480 on Bitstamp. This level sits just above the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), currently positioned near $68,338.

Analyst Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin is facing resistance from this trendline, suggesting that the latest recovery could turn into a “post-breakdown retest of the EMA into new resistance.” According to the analyst, for Bitcoin to reverse historical tendencies, it must secure a weekly close above the EMA and flip it into support.

On shorter timeframes, analyst Jelle emphasized that holding the 50 EMA ($68,000) as support on the four-hour chart is crucial to confirm the recovery. If bulls manage to break above the 20-day EMA at $69,220, the price could rally toward $74,508. However, this zone is seen as an area where strong selling pressure may emerge.

Could a Liquidity Hunt Push Bitcoin to $80,000?

Many traders are discussing a potential liquidity sweep scenario due to heavy sell orders placed above $72,000.

According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin tapped liquidity around $70,000, but the main cluster of orders remains above the current price. Approximately $2 billion in sell orders are sitting between $72,450 and $75,000.

If the $75,000 level is broken, it could trigger forced short liquidations and spark a squeeze that may drive the price toward $80,000.

Analyst AlphaBTC stated that unless a strong downside catalyst appears, higher levels are likely to be tested in the coming weeks.

Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows Support the Upside

Signs of renewed institutional demand are emerging. Data from Farside Investors shows that US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for two consecutive days.

A total of $765 million flowed into these products on Tuesday and Wednesday, with $507 million recorded on Wednesday alone — the highest daily inflow since February 2.

According to some market commentators, this rally reflects institutional accumulation rather than retail FOMO. If growing demand pressure combines with a technical breakout, Bitcoin’s upward momentum could strengthen further.

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Bitcoin has dropped 22.5% over the past month, briefly hitting its lowest levels in over a year before rebounding. This move has intensified discussions around market cycles, technical indicators, and on-chain signals. Amid rising uncertainty, many analysts are now focusing on key price areas below $40,000.

What Do Historical Cycles and Fibonacci Suggest?

On February 6, Bitcoin fell to $60,000 before rebounding to $70,354. 10x Research emphasized that although market sentiment and technical indicators were approaching extreme levels, the overall downward trend continues. Historical bear markets show that Bitcoin tends to follow certain mathematical ratios.

Analyst Ardi examined Fibonacci retracement levels linked to past cycle lows. Bitcoin bottomed at the 78.6% Fibonacci level during the 2022 bear market, currently around $39,176. Analyst Nehal highlighted historical drops: 93% in 2011, 86% in 2015, 84% in 2018, and 77% in 2022. Applying this model to the current cycle suggests a potential bottom around $38,000.

On-chain data also provides insights. Analyst Ted Pillows noted that when prices fall roughly 15% below the average cost for long-term holders, cycle lows typically occur. With the realized price around $40,300, this model suggests a potential bottom near $34,500—though Pillows personally doubts it will drop that low.

On-Chain Signals and the $50,000 Threshold

Some analysts believe Bitcoin’s bottom may already have formed, making a deeper bear market less likely. One analyst noted that past cycle bottoms often occurred just below all-time highs.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs and growing institutional involvement are cited as factors that make drops below $50,000 increasingly unlikely:

“Volatility and sharp pullbacks can happen. But structurally, falling below $50,000 would require a breakdown. Institutional infrastructure and large capital are unlikely to allow this.”

Analyst Darkfost added that Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio has reached levels historically associated with the final stages of bear markets. While this signals potential market reversal zones, it does not necessarily indicate the end of the bear market. Prices could drop further over the next few months, with intermittent rallies along the way, as the risk-reward profile becomes increasingly extreme.

Technical Outlook and Support Levels

Our Coinmühendisi analyst noted that Bitcoin is in a downtrend across all timeframes, with a weekly close below $74,000 confirming a bearish bias. The next major support level is expected around $52,500, and retracements toward this zone should be considered normal.

The analyst also highlighted the possibility of market manipulation. Following the weekly confirmation, some traders may continue short positions. However, a break above this level could trigger upward momentum. Short-term rallies are inevitable, but weekly confirmation and trend structure should not be ignored.

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Support Lost, Rebound Faces Resistance

BTC lost the $106,400 – $105,328 support zone after a sharp drop. The long wicks seen during the decline suggest intense selling pressure. Although price is currently attempting a recovery, it appears to be facing resistance, limiting further upside.

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If Bitcoin fails to hold above the $106,400 zone, the next support to watch will be around $101,466. This level could play a decisive role in determining the short-term direction.

Break Above Resistance Could Reopen Path to $108,000

If the price can reclaim and maintain a position above the broken resistance, a renewed move toward the $108,000 level becomes technically possible.

Given the current instability in both global and crypto markets, caution remains key. Traders are advised to manage risk carefully and stay alert to rapid market shifts.

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BTC started 2025 strongly. It has stayed above the $100,000 level for seven consecutive days, establishing this as a key support zone for BTC. Institutional investor interest remains strong. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) fund made a significant inflow of $232.9 million on May 14th. This brought total ETF inflows close to the $400 billion mark. Other major players like Fidelity and Ark have also made substantial investments in Bitcoin ETFs. 

Following the US-China trade ceasefire, recession fears have eased. This development has positively impacted Bitcoin’s price. As market uncertainty decreases, institutional investors continue to view Bitcoin as a safe haven. Daily ETF inflows average around $4.4 billion. This strong demand supports Bitcoin’s consolidation above $103,000. 

US ETF flows hit $400b on the year, that's a breathtaking $4.4b/day pace, on track to surpass $1T again this year nearly HALF of this has gone into US Equities) led by $VOO at $60b which is absurd, on pace to finish with $164b (60% ahead of last year's record). pic.twitter.com/Gs7FVZMFqL

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 15, 2025

Additionally, assets under management in spot Bitcoin ETFs have surpassed $41 billion. IBIT stands out with nearly 40% market share. Investors find easier access to Bitcoin through these ETFs, which increases BTC liquidity and leads to healthier price movements. 

ETF Inflows and Bitcoin’s Future 

In 2025, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will decide on altcoin ETF applications. This development could trigger new waves in the crypto markets. ETF investments are expected to exceed the $1 trillion threshold. This would positively influence the prices of BTC and other crypto assets. 

From a technical perspective, BTC maintains its upward potential as long as it stays above the $101,000 support level. Indicators like the Donchian Channel and Parabolic SAR show that the price has found strong support. Analysts suggest BTC is targeting new highs in the $106,000–$108,000 range. 

A short-term drop in volume is considered normal. During this phase, price movements enter an accumulation stage. Momentum indicators such as the Klinger Oscillator still give positive signals, indicating the trend is likely to continue. 

However, if the $98,700 support is broken, the bullish outlook could become invalid. Such a breakdown would make reaching the $110,000 target difficult. For now, the current market structure is developing in BTC favor. 

*** NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE *** 

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If this FVG support breaks down, the bitcoin price could drop further towards 66,852$. On the other hand, a reaction from the 73,462$ support could fuel a strong upside move.

Key Reaction Zone: 73,462$ Support!

A solid bounce from 73,462$ could reignite bullish momentum. Holding above this level may trigger recovery, pushing bitcoin toward higher resistance zones.

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Should a confirmed breakout from the downtrend occur, bitcoin may quickly target the 84,000$ resistance, a key psychological and technical level.

Right now, bitcoin is at a decision point. Either the price holds and reverses upward, or we witness a deeper correction.

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Bitcoin Technical Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) has gained 0.60% in the last 24 hours, reaching $87,940. After breaking the $86,600 resistance, it made a re-test and continued its upward movement. However, for the uptrend to continue, Bitcoin needs to close above $88,500. This level has been tested multiple times, but a strong breakout has yet to occur. If $88,500 is surpassed, Bitcoin could target $91,000, followed by $92,500 – $95,000 levels.

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On the downside, if $86,600 support is lost, Bitcoin may drop first to $85,000, and then to the $83,500 – $82,000 range.

Ethereum Technical Analysis

Ethereum (ETH) bounced from the $2,037 – $1,927 support range and tested the $2,108 resistance but faced rejection. It has now retraced back to the support zone. If $2,108 is broken, Ethereum could see a rapid move toward $2,200 – $2,300.

On the other hand, if $1,927 support fails, Ethereum may decline to $1,850, and eventually $1,800.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis: Testing a Key Resistance Zone!

Bitcoin has rebounded strongly from its bullish FVG (Fair Value Gap) zone, climbing towards the bearish FVG area that formed during its previous decline. However, over the weekend, no major movement was observed in this area, and for now, the price appears to have faced a sharp rejection.

This region serves as a critical resistance zone, and investors looking to open long positions should be cautious here. If Bitcoin fails to break through this resistance, there’s a potential for a pullback towards the $80,000 level.

On the other hand, if there’s a bullish breakout and this resistance is surpassed, the price could rally quickly toward the $86,000 resistance zone. A daily close above these levels may signal a continuation of the strong uptrend in the market.

Ethereum (ETH) Analysis: Will It Reclaim the Key Support?

On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum has lost the critical support zone between $2,037 and $1,927, leading to a decline as low as $1,745. Currently, Ethereum remains priced below this former support area and has yet to establish a clear direction.

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If Ethereum fails to reclaim the $1,927 – $2,037 range, the price may revisit the $1,745 support level. This region acts as a crucial support in the short term.

However, if Ethereum manages to break through the resistance and regain the $2,037 level, a potential rally towards $2,108 could follow. A successful breakout and daily close above $2,108 could trigger rapid upside moves and increased buyer volume.

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Bitcoin Technical Analysis

One of the standout developments during this decline was Bitcoin losing the $86,641 support. After breaking this critical level, Bitcoin performed a retest move, then dropped towards the next support level—the bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG) area. Bitcoin has now completely filled this FVG zone and appears to have found temporary support. As of today, Bitcoin has recovered by 4%, climbing back to around $81,000.

However, uncertainty remains high. The most critical support level for Bitcoin lies within the lower bullish FVG zone. Specifically, the $73,468 support is seen as a crucial threshold for the coming days. Previously, breaking above this zone had triggered a rally that took Bitcoin all the way to $100,000. As a result, this area will be closely watched by market participants.

If Bitcoin loses the $73,468 level, the next potential downside target could be around $65,000. This zone acted as a significant support level before the last major rally and could once again attract buyers. However, a drop to these levels could also trigger another wave of selling pressure in the market.

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Ethereum Update

Alongside Bitcoin’s sharp movements, Ethereum (ETH) also suffered significant losses. As highlighted in previous analyses, losing the $2,037 – $1,927 support range pushed the price down to $1,700. Currently, Ethereum is trading around $1,921, trying to reclaim the $1,927 support.

A successful reclaim of this support level could lead Ethereum back above $2,000 in the short term. The $2,108 resistance level is the next key hurdle. If Ethereum breaks above this resistance, it may set its sights on $2,500 once again.

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From a technical perspective, holding above 80,800$ could be a critical factor in shaping short-term price action. As long as this support remains intact, there is potential for a rebound towards higher resistance zones. However, if 80,800$ fails to hold, the next potential support levels to monitor are around 78,500$ and 76,200$.

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In the coming days, particular attention will be on the macroeconomic data releases scheduled for Wednesday, along with statements from central bank officials. These events are likely to increase market volatility and play a role in determining Bitcoin’s next direction.

For now, 80,800$ serves as a key technical level. Whether buyers can maintain control at this point may signal the short-term trend for Bitcoin. Traders and investors are advised to monitor support and resistance areas closely in the days ahead.

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