Bitcoin Derivatives and ETF Outflows Raise Confidence Concerns 

On Friday, Bitcoin fell to $114,013 and traded at $113,383. This decline triggered $200 million in liquidations of leveraged long positions, damaging trust in BTC derivatives markets. Moreover, prices have failed to hold above $120,000 for three consecutive weeks, leading to a loss of confidence among investors. 

Normally, monthly Bitcoin futures trade at a 5–10% premium over spot prices. The current 6% premium is the lowest in the past four weeks, indicating a decline in demand for leveraged bullish positions. While institutional interest remains high, market confidence is visibly lower. 

On July 31, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $115 million, ending a five-day streak of net inflows. This further impacted investor sentiment. Meanwhile, Strategy (MSTR) announced a $4.2 billion stock offering on Thursday, which could help prevent large-scale Bitcoin sales and stabilize the derivatives market. 

Bitcoin’s Correlation with Equities Increases 

Bitcoin is only 7% below its record high of $123,182 from mid-July. Meanwhile, gold prices remain steady around $3,350. Once viewed as digital gold, Bitcoin has recently shown a strong correlation with equities amid global trade tensions. This correlation has risen above 70% over the past three weeks. 

As a result, Bitcoin now behaves more like a high-risk tech stock rather than a safe-haven asset. Its market capitalization is comparable to that of Amazon and Google, highlighting the impact of U.S. tariff disputes and increased money supply on financial markets. 

Investors have shifted to cash and short-term Treasury bonds due to a weakening labor market. Demand for 1-year U.S. Treasury notes reached a three-month high, driven by revised employment data and an increase in July’s unemployment rate to 4.2%. 

BTC Options Between Neutral and Bearish Sentiment 

It’s possible to monitor whether Bitcoin whales and market makers are reducing their leveraged long positions via the options market. In bearish conditions, put options typically carry a 6% or higher premium over call options. Currently, this premium difference is around 5%. 

The delta skew of options has shifted from bullish to neutral-to-bearish since July 18. Additionally, the cost of protecting against a drop below the $114,000 support level has risen. This indicates decreasing confidence in Bitcoin’s ability to hold that level.

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This resistance continues to block Bitcoin’s attempts to climb back to $112,000. This stagnant movement is mainly due to investors remaining cautious amid geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties. Particularly, rising tensions in the Middle East, conflicts between Israel and Iran, and cyberattacks are undermining investor confidence. 

Iran-based cryptocurrency exchange Nobitex was attacked by a pro-Israel hacker group, resulting in a $81 million loss. This incident exposed the vulnerability of crypto assets during geopolitical cyber conflicts. Bitcoin is often promoted as “digital gold,” but during times of crisis, it underperforms compared to traditional safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasury bonds. While gold approached all-time highs this week, BTC lost 3.6% in value just last week. 

Fed Decision and Inflation Concerns Weigh on Bitcoin 

The U.S. Federal Reserve kept its policy interest rate steady at 4.25–4.50% during its June 18 meeting. However, its ongoing hawkish stance against inflation increased pressure on risk assets. Due to a core PCE inflation rate of 2.8% and potential trade policies from Trump, the Fed reduced expectations for rate cuts. 

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the FOMC now projects only two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025, down from four previously. Markets are currently pricing in just a 58.4% chance of a rate cut in September. 

This scenario strengthens the U.S. dollar while putting further pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. Diminishing liquidity expectations reduce demand for digital assets. According to QCP Capital’s June 18 report, the Fed is likely to make only one rate cut, limiting Bitcoin’s upward momentum. 

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Institutional interest in U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs gained renewed momentum on Wednesday, with a total net inflow of $390.4 million — nearly double the previous day’s amount. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led the way with a single-day inflow of $280 million, further cementing its dominance. 

Robust Institutional Demand for Spot Bitcoin ETFs 

Fidelity’s FBTC product also drew attention with over $100 million in inflows, signaling growing investor confidence and a stabilizing market. During this period, BlackRock added 2,861 new Bitcoins to its portfolio, bringing its total BTC holdings to 680,336. 

Since the beginning of 2025, total net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have reached $11.25 billion, underlining the continuing rise in institutional demand. Notably, Bitcoin ETF products have posted positive net inflows for eight consecutive trading days. 

Bitcoin and Gold Strengthen Amid Geopolitical Tensions 

Rising tensions between Iran and Israel have heightened risk perception in global markets. With potential interventions from the U.S. and the U.K., investors have turned to safe-haven assets. This climate has seen an uptick in both BTC ETF inflows and gold prices. 

At the same time, BTC’s price held steady at the $104,000 level, maintaining its resilience. According to on-chain data, the STH/LTH Supply Ratio dropped to 15.7%, indicating reduced activity among short-term holders and continued confidence from long-term investors. 

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s decision to maintain interest rates following the recent FOMC meeting has also reinforced a “wait-and-see” sentiment in the markets. Despite geopolitical risks, crypto assets continue to attract solid institutional interest. 

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Bitcoin vs Gold Comparison

Bitcoin (BTC) has been considered a revolutionary development in the financial world since its emergence in 2009. With a limited supply (21 million units) and a decentralized structure, Bitcoin is considered the pioneer of blockchain technology. Today, Bitcoin, which has a market capitalization of 2 trillion dollars, has become known as “Digital Gold”.

So, can Bitcoin’s market capitalization, which exceeds 2 trillion dollars and increases day by day, surpass physical gold, which ranks first in the most valuable asset ranking today? Here are the details;

• The total market capitalization of gold is estimated to be around 18 trillion dollars. Therefore, if the current data is taken into consideration, it has a market capitalization exactly 9 times that of Bitcoin. Considering this assessment, Bitcoin needs to go up to $ 900 thousand – $ 1 million in order to surpass gold. Although this figure is currently seen as a very extreme and large figure, it is claimed that this new technology is the technology of the future and that Bitcoin will be possible by those who call it “digital gold”.

Bitcoin Leaves World Giant Companies Behind!

There has been a huge development for Bitcoin, especially in the last 1 year. After its price dropped to 20 thousand dollars in the bear season after 2021, Bitcoin rose to 100 thousand dollars with a serious rise and market evaluation. With this rise and increasing market valuation in the last 1 year, it has surpassed many of the world’s leading giant companies. For Bitcoin, there are only a few giant companies (Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft) that it is currently competing with in market capitalization. With a new hype in the cryptocurrency market in the coming days, the market price may increase and leave these companies behind. If it leaves these world giants behind, it will compete with Gold as its only competitor.

Bitcoin Competes with National Economies

Bitcoin has a market capitalization of 2 trillion dollars, more than the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of some countries. Bitcoin has become comparable to economies such as Switzerland, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

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